Monthly Thread: November 2003

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
EURUSD
 

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rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Hello Everyone, hope you're all doing good.

From now on, I will be holding monthly threads instead of weeklies; I posted about it last week, but still. There will be less comments, less reco's, but I hope its ok with you all.
Last month was a bad month for me and I am sorry to make this change after loosing month, but that will not change a thing. This is market, and losses are losses - just something we all should be ready to take as part of what we do.

I wish we all to have a great trading week, month and times to come!

Best Regards,

Rezo Shmertz.

BTW, I will not make "writing on charts" a standard, it was just easier for me at the moment.
 

GeckoTime

Member
70 0
Rezo, thanks for your commentary, it's all useful. I just don't know where EUR/USD is going, and for the time being am staying out. Every time it has hit a new level (1.16, 1.15) I have expected $ weakening again, but for now at least it is confounding my expectations. Maybe you are right and $ will strenghten even further now it has broken 1.16, but I guess there is also the danger we are seeing a "dead cat bounce"
 

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Hi GT, I dont know if dead cat can bounce that well, but time will show... I would like to share post on euro of my fellow analyst and my reply to him on other forum:

eternalfuture said:
Rezo and all,

Well, as expected, not much fight given by 1.1545-1.1550 yesterday.

Today, I don't think it won't be much of a different story than yesterday.

Downward pressure still there, but near-term bounce still likely. I don't think it will bounce far, though. On a daily closing basis, 1.1440 provide temporary support for now, although it was pierced on the hourly chart yesterday.

There is 'window' support at 1.1382, which would also offer some support for euro.

Rezo, maybe the recent double top at 1.1860 & 1.1857 isn't the similar pattern like the one that we have at 1.1932/1.1931. Maybe this current drop is equivalent to the move 'BETWEEN' the 1.1932 & 1.1931 tops.

If you look at the chart, after the top at 1.1932, euro was down to 1.1625. And before that 1.1932, there was also a 'window' at 1.1589 (16th May 2003).

What I'm trying to say is that current fall was equivalent to the move between 1.1932 and 1.1625 rather than 1.1931 to 1.1110 (16th July 2003).

If this is the case, then a move back to 1.1800 plus is still very possible, but it would be important that the 1.1382 window still intact to be there again.

Should the euro close at least twice below 1.1382 on daily closing basis, then the euro may have a hard time visiting 1.1800 again; instead, it would crash as low as 1.1020 (as I have pointed out earlier).

Sorry for long post. I would've loved to attach the chart, but got a problem with the PC.

Thanks, and good luck!

rezo_s said:
E.Future, I will attach the chart for you my friend. But I have to dissagree. If we look at the chart, you are suggestinh we are at similar pattern as marked with 1 and 2 on chart. But take a look at the red lined - and we see we are not exactly in that 1, 2 points anymore, but more likely moving lower.
Another thing to pay attention to is that the low was exactly the 61 point. This may trigger attempt to retest the 1.18 for a break upside, but unfortunatly technical picture doesnt support that scenario. At least not yet. Things may change, but for now this is the situation.
Current situation is very much similar with the previous push to 1.19. Same situation with the gaps... I remember this gap at 1.1380 - 1.1440 area (market with cycles on chart). I was holding a long position over the weekend at that moment from 1.1173 with tp order at 1.1405, and even though first ticks were around 1.1440, I was closed at my order :)...
Anyways, you are right about the gap area - it should be filled in order to proceed to your procpected 1.1020 area. I prefer setting tp order aomewhere around 1.11 - 1.12 - the 38 fibo area... to tell the exact level : 1.1185 that is where I will set up my t.p once/if I enter short...


Ok, good Luck everyone, will update a bit later.
 

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orchard

Active member
163 2
Rezo

Writing on charts. As far as I am concerned keep on doing it. Makes it easier to follow your chart (at least for me).
 

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Orchard,

No problem, but it depends on how much is there to write, cos not there's not always enough room on charts.

cheers
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Hi Rezo,

From now on, I will be holding monthly threads instead of weeklies; I posted about it last week, but still. There will be less comments, less reco's, but I hope its ok with you all.


I have enjoyed reviewing your fx analysis, trading activity & views and can imagine that the posting of comments was perhaps interfering with trade decisions. We all know how it feels to lose. It requires renewed focus and dedication.
Nevertheless, I was thinking about sending you some funds your way but need to see at least another 1 or 2 month of real time trade activity before doing so.
As full time traders one needs to focus, and my focus is not FX so "outsourcing" to somebody with similar risk appetite as myself would be a neat solution.

What I liked about your posts is transparancy! Being able to follow your progress is key to me. Great performance on its own is not enough as increased risk will undoubtedly result in higher volatility of returns. Basing myself on some of your trading decisions, it appears to me that you are very talented but also, I hope you don't mind making this observation, still young and perhaps not yet seasoned with many years trading/money mngt experience. (You will agree that a month like Oct does steepen the learning curve).

Please do keep posting your reco's + charts + brief earguments for a trade. I don't need long explanations or considerations/evaluations about possible trade set-ups. Just sick to Set-up, Entry, Stop and Target. (+ real-time adjustment of stops).
This would be great advertisement for your business and will no doubt grow the number of mandates.
Good luck
 

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Hello Bgold,

Unfortunately I cannot keep posting all my recommendations anymore, bcos I got at least the question "how long are you going to keep the reco's open to follow for everyone" from almost every client who I negotiated with and/or invested with me.

The question I often got was "why invest when one can simply follow". MY answer always was: " first, no one knows when I stop posting, and secondly, I am seeking for investors and not traders. Those 2 are different. Investor for some reason doesn't want / cannot trade himself, and that is why wishes his funds to be managed."
Fortunately all my clients are very decent, understanding and serious people, our relationship is based on mutual respect and I am always ready to give up good investor if I see lack of respect and/or we cannot reach understanding. As young and beginning in this business, I have used this king of posting to "see the light", and I kept this activity for a while. But this is still not 100% fair for my clients who pay 25% of profits to me.
I post my analysis here same as usual, and will make recommendations here and there, but not 100% of my trades. So if you want to follow my trades, I can send you trades log once you decide you want to invest. I created online clients section where they can view all the trading activity, and reasoning. That page is updated in the end of each day for clients who are interested in trading activity to be able to follow.

As for my experience, yes, I am not managing others money that long, but I have been trading this market for 6 years now. I grew up in financial services environment. My father managed several small - medium size private banks back in late 80s - late 90s, and I was spending much time there with him. Each day driver was taking me from school to his work where I was spending most of my day time. I was obsessed with financial sector, thought I would always be in same sector, and there I was one day back in 1997 when someone introduced me to retail forex market... from there on I knew this is my way to financial world. I tried stocks and futures, but I always came back to forex. This is my way, and this is the way I believe in.

October was a bad month, of course. But we are living, learning, evolving...so of course we learn, that's the only way. There is no way to trade without losses. I will not start giving the reasons on why it was the way it was, bcos its no use now - I can be smarter afterwards, but its too late now. But in brief it was several bad luck with good trades which were not as they could be. For ex. the long USDCHF trade last week at 1.3239 with target at 1.3520 (now its even much higher - 1.36). this trade was stopped at b/e without followed consolidation and chance to reenter and continued the way up. Only this should have been a +8.3% trade; the eurgbp was stopped with 60 pip profit instead of more...well, in brief market was volatile last month, there is nothing we can do... but still - these are talks about past which cannot fix a thing now and are useless. We should still learn and always try to improve. There is no end to learning and improving...

If you are interested to invest but still need some time, I fully understand you, especially after Oct. But I think if we are willing to do this, we will find some way to get to mutual understanding and find way to solve this problem.

Please feel free to contact me if you will.

Regards,

Rezo Shmertz
 

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Hi Everybody,

Been away from here for a while.
Here is my reco: sell GBPUSD - look at the trend line and try to short if it gets near it with 50 pips stop. I already shorted, but you may get even better level. The target is 1.6385. Very nice r:r ratio there. Early next week week we may get that target. If this trade gets stopped, it may still be a good trade to reenter later. Canadian is also looking good - I took long couple days ago and am still keeping it, but this is not a reco, just sharing; but if you are in simiolar trade or looking to enter, my initial target for USDCAD is 1.3620. Reco is to try long one of the best performing out there - USDCHF. If I get to take a good position, I will make a reco for this one.

Good Luck Everyone,

Rezo
 

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rezo_s

Established member
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btw, the reason for still to try to take long on USD/canadian is that we broke back the 1.3350 earlier low of this year. We broke the low doew, and now we are back in upside move above that level. So I think it is still good to buy at good entry.
 

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