eternalfuture said:Rezo and all,
Well, as expected, not much fight given by 1.1545-1.1550 yesterday.
Today, I don't think it won't be much of a different story than yesterday.
Downward pressure still there, but near-term bounce still likely. I don't think it will bounce far, though. On a daily closing basis, 1.1440 provide temporary support for now, although it was pierced on the hourly chart yesterday.
There is 'window' support at 1.1382, which would also offer some support for euro.
Rezo, maybe the recent double top at 1.1860 & 1.1857 isn't the similar pattern like the one that we have at 1.1932/1.1931. Maybe this current drop is equivalent to the move 'BETWEEN' the 1.1932 & 1.1931 tops.
If you look at the chart, after the top at 1.1932, euro was down to 1.1625. And before that 1.1932, there was also a 'window' at 1.1589 (16th May 2003).
What I'm trying to say is that current fall was equivalent to the move between 1.1932 and 1.1625 rather than 1.1931 to 1.1110 (16th July 2003).
If this is the case, then a move back to 1.1800 plus is still very possible, but it would be important that the 1.1382 window still intact to be there again.
Should the euro close at least twice below 1.1382 on daily closing basis, then the euro may have a hard time visiting 1.1800 again; instead, it would crash as low as 1.1020 (as I have pointed out earlier).
Sorry for long post. I would've loved to attach the chart, but got a problem with the PC.
Thanks, and good luck!
rezo_s said:E.Future, I will attach the chart for you my friend. But I have to dissagree. If we look at the chart, you are suggestinh we are at similar pattern as marked with 1 and 2 on chart. But take a look at the red lined - and we see we are not exactly in that 1, 2 points anymore, but more likely moving lower.
Another thing to pay attention to is that the low was exactly the 61 point. This may trigger attempt to retest the 1.18 for a break upside, but unfortunatly technical picture doesnt support that scenario. At least not yet. Things may change, but for now this is the situation.
Current situation is very much similar with the previous push to 1.19. Same situation with the gaps... I remember this gap at 1.1380 - 1.1440 area (market with cycles on chart). I was holding a long position over the weekend at that moment from 1.1173 with tp order at 1.1405, and even though first ticks were around 1.1440, I was closed at my order ...
Anyways, you are right about the gap area - it should be filled in order to proceed to your procpected 1.1020 area. I prefer setting tp order aomewhere around 1.11 - 1.12 - the 38 fibo area... to tell the exact level : 1.1185 that is where I will set up my t.p once/if I enter short...
Ok, good Luck everyone, will update a bit later.
From now on, I will be holding monthly threads instead of weeklies; I posted about it last week, but still. There will be less comments, less reco's, but I hope its ok with you all.