Mike Baghdady - should I take a course or not?

[the hare]

I assume that you are taught a method, and that method includes position sizing.

I have a video from a webinar in which Mr Baghdady claims to have made 300% on a single trade based on the method taught. I appreciate that he may have pyramided into the trade with multiple positions.

I am aware of Mr Baghdadys history with margin calls etc, which is generally an indication of taking high risk, for high reward. Could you therefore comment on the position sizing method thats currently taught.

I dont expect you to give away any trade secrets or details of the method, but could you confirm if you are pyramiding into trades (or not), what sort of initial risk is taken on a position etc (I did hear rumours that the method isnt too dissimilar to the original turtle rules)

I've done the maths on Mr Baghdady's trade, and I'm struggling to undertand how he could make 300% on that trade, without taking the kind of risks that lead to margin calls and bankrupcy !

 

[emelen73]

i thought it would be good to offer a legitimate perception as a client

and look forward to questions from the crazies in this thread

if any

Assuming you are indeed a genuine client, would you mind answering the following?
How long ago did you complete the training?
What materials did you receive during and/ or after the course?
Are you still able to use the software, since the sudden demise of TT?
Are you willing to prove that the 'system' has been and remains profitable and will continue to work over the long term, by way of evidence of past trades and making live calls in realtime?
Give a description of the system/ software with your perceived positives and negatives?

 

[Digbyarbuthnot]

Where's Malcolm Steel today?

Maybe the broadband bills weren't paid after all?

 

[emelen73]

Where's Malcolm Steel today?

Maybe the broadband bills weren't paid after all?

Instead of the now boring handbags crap, if you are truly an ex-TT employee/ associate, how about discussing the 'system' TT are/ were selling?
Is everybody so reluctant to discuss it because it actually DOES have merit?

 

[Digbyarbuthnot]

Instead of the now boring handbags crap, if you are truly an ex-TT employee/ associate, how about discussing the 'system' TT are/ were selling?
Is everybody so reluctant to discuss it because it actually DOES have merit?

I think the most telling example of whether or not the system works is the fact that the Turtles programme has been closed down. I assumed it was a given that those who could only trade according Mike Baghdady's rules and not break them were the acid test whether or not his system has merit.

The proof was in the Turtle pudding. I can make a well founded conclusion that, if the Turtles programme has ended, that The Training Traders rules taught by Mike Baghdady & Ben Tuckey does not work.

 

[pipsplease]

Instead of the now boring handbags crap, if you are truly an ex-TT employee/ associate, how about discussing the 'system' TT are/ were selling?
Is everybody so reluctant to discuss it because it actually DOES have merit?

This would be the system and software and mentoring that Mike Baghdady, Ben Tuckey and the venerable Malcolm Steel were selling - correct?

Well how about this for service!

A couple of recent clients who have paid for the above have not received the service because there appears to be no one around to deliver it. Mike Baghdady, Ben Tuckey anbd our friend Malcolm have all disappeared.

On phoning each they got no reply, except from Mr Baghdady (in New York). When they asked for their money back the "worlds leading expert on Price Behaviour Trading" replied "f--k o-f" and put the phone down.

So what does that say about the product and the claimed back up support???????
Make your own mind up.

 

[emelen73]

This would be the system and software and mentoring that Mike Baghdady, Ben Tuckey and the venerable Malcolm Steel were selling - correct?

Well how about this for service!

A couple of recent clients who have paid for the above have not received the service because there appears to be no one around to deliver it. Mike Baghdady, Ben Tuckey anbd our friend Malcolm have all disappeared.

On phoning each they got no reply, except from Mr Baghdady (in New York). When they asked for their money back the "worlds leading expert on Price Behaviour Trading" replied "f--k o-f" and put the phone down.

So what does that say about the product and the claimed back up support???????
Make your own mind up.

Fair enough and point taken but I was trying to approach this from a angle which excludes the 'personalities' involved and the Turtles. The 'system' must have been in place prior to the idea of re-establishing the Turtle program.
Nobody has yet discussed anything regarding signals, setups, entry or exit criteria, the use of indicators etc..
Surely a discussion about these aspects would clearly identify whether something 'unique' was on offer. I have no doubt that Mr. B will reappear somewhere, someday to sell his 'system'. Without knowing what it consists of how will we be able to truly convince future readers of this thread, that don't start at page 1 and read all the way through, that its not worth the price?
A simple breakdown of the technical aspects would surely be a sharper nail, struck with a weightier hammer into his commercial coffin?
Many business fail due to insufficient or just bad advertising, even when a good product exists, so how about a discussion of the product?

 

[the hare]

On phoning each they got no reply, except from Mr Baghdady (in New York). When they asked for their money back the "worlds leading expert on Price Behaviour Trading" replied "f--k o-f" and put the phone down.

good story, any chance of backing that up with proof !

 

[pipsplease]

good story, any chance of backing that up with proof !

Good question.
The proof exists as it does on anything I have posted.

I will ask the proof if he / she is willing to come on and confirm?

 

[Digbyarbuthnot]

Fair enough and point taken but I was trying to approach this from a angle which excludes the 'personalities' involved and the Turtles. The 'system' must have been in place prior to the idea of re-establishing the Turtle program.
Nobody has yet discussed anything regarding signals, setups, entry or exit criteria, the use of indicators etc..
Surely a discussion about these aspects would clearly identify whether something 'unique' was on offer. I have no doubt that Mr. B will reappear somewhere, someday to sell his 'system'. Without knowing what it consists of how will we be able to truly convince future readers of this thread, that don't start at page 1 and read all the way through, that its not worth the price?
A simple breakdown of the technical aspects would surely be a sharper nail, struck with a weightier hammer into his commercial coffin?
Many business fail due to insufficient or just bad advertising, even when a good product exists, so how about a discussion of the product?

Technically, it didn't work because the Turtle programme failed. (This is nothing against the Turtles - it's a manifestation that the system didn't work). They were the ones who were there to prove whether or not his systems & software worked. They are no longer trading. QED.

Without knowing everything about everyone's trading rules, I doubt that there was a great deal that was very original/proprietorial. I'm sure you can find very similar information for free online.

I'm not sure what discussion you want to have about the product, but the conclusive proof - via the Turtles - is that it doesn't work.

Perhaps Mike Baghdady will have the chutzpah to try to flog his wares again, but I'm sure that would attract a lot of attention!

 

[the hare]

Technically, it didn't work because the Turtle programme failed.

I wouldnt necessarily agree with that. Some of the more vocal turtles definately didnt have the sorts of attributes that I'd be looking for.

The other issue of course is that the experiment was due to run over 3 years, so its a little unfair to judge them after 6 months (and they may not even have been funded yet)

I trade fairly frequently (much higher frequency than the turtles), and consequentially, my equity curve is fairly smooth. Having said that, I do occassionally hit flat spots, and in the past I've hit periods where flat spots or drawdowns lasted 2-3 months.

If I experience those things as a relativey high frequency day trader, then a bunch of numpties trading at a lower frequency are certainly going to experience similar issues.

The point I'm trying to make is that maybe Mr B's initial selection of people wasnt particularly great (not really surpring as he's a bit dim witted), or the markets are not currently in phase with the method, or they had insufficient capital, or their demise occured due to the failure of the training traders business.

Its a bit unfair to judge the success or failure of the new turtles on such a small sample size of trades, and after so little time, and in light of the other problems Mr B & Co are facing

 

[alphadude]

I wouldnt necessarily agree with that. Some of the more vocal turtles definately didnt have the sorts of attributes that I'd be looking for.

The other issue of course is that the experiment was due to run over 3 years, so its a little unfair to judge them after 6 months (and they may not even have been funded yet)

I trade fairly frequently (much higher frequency than the turtles), and consequentially, my equity curve is fairly smooth. Having said that, I do occassionally hit flat spots, and in the past I've hit periods where flat spots or drawdowns lasted 2-3 months.

If I experience those things as a relativey high frequency day trader, then a bunch of numpties trading at a lower frequency are certainly going to experience similar issues.

The point I'm trying to make is that maybe Mr B's initial selection of people wasnt particularly great (not really surpring as he's a bit dim witted), or the markets are not currently in phase with the method, or they had insufficient capital, or their demise occured due to the failure of the training traders business.

Its a bit unfair to judge the success or failure of the new turtles on such a small sample size of trades, and after so little time, and in light of the other problems Mr B & Co are facing

I disagree with your reasoning about the failure of the Turtles.

A goat is not a bird; and hence it cannot fly. Mr B can't win if he is on shaky grounds; and he can't make others win either; if himself can't make money from his methods. have you observed his language in the SkyNews ad? it certainly does not reflect a successful trader.

 

[emelen73]

'.. Mr B can't win if he is on shaky grounds; and he can't make others win either; if himself can't make money from his methods..'

It is these unknown methods which I am trying to discover, so a rational disection of them can take place, but it seems to be the hardest thing to extract.
When I sat in on one of the workshops, Mr. B stated that his trading system had been condensed into 22 rules and written into a book.
What are some of the 22 rules and does this book actually exist? I asked something similar to this of 'merkozy' who claims to be a client of TT..
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/144314-mike-baghdady-should-i-take-course-not-123.html
..but have yet to receive a response..

 

[wackypete2]

I disagree with your reasoning about the failure of the Turtles.

A goat is not a bird; and hence it cannot fly. Mr B can't win if he is on shaky grounds; and he can't make others win either; if himself can't make money from his methods. have you observed his language in the SkyNews ad? it certainly does not reflect a successful trader.

The ability of the trader says nothing about the method. A cr@p trader won't make money using proven methods while a successful experienced trader can make the best out of poor methods.

I agree with Hare. That Mr B and his company failed is not a reflection on the turtles at all. THEY did not fail. It appears they were forced to liquidate and move on. With so little time and sample size we cannot determine if the method the turtles were using would ultimately succeed or fail. We do not even know HOW they were trading.

Peter

 

[Digbyarbuthnot]

I wouldnt necessarily agree with that. Some of the more vocal turtles definately didnt have the sorts of attributes that I'd be looking for.

The other issue of course is that the experiment was due to run over 3 years, so its a little unfair to judge them after 6 months (and they may not even have been funded yet)

I trade fairly frequently (much higher frequency than the turtles), and consequentially, my equity curve is fairly smooth. Having said that, I do occassionally hit flat spots, and in the past I've hit periods where flat spots or drawdowns lasted 2-3 months.

If I experience those things as a relativey high frequency day trader, then a bunch of numpties trading at a lower frequency are certainly going to experience similar issues.

The point I'm trying to make is that maybe Mr B's initial selection of people wasnt particularly great (not really surpring as he's a bit dim witted), or the markets are not currently in phase with the method, or they had insufficient capital, or their demise occured due to the failure of the training traders business.

Its a bit unfair to judge the success or failure of the new turtles on such a small sample size of trades, and after so little time, and in light of the other problems Mr B & Co are facing

Hare

Are you trading by Mike Baghdady's rules note for note?

My point is that the ONLY acid test/placebo/litmus test in the whole world that exists to prove definitely whether or not Mike Baghdady's rules work was the Turtle progamme.

Banghdady & Ben Tuckey made a rod for their backs with the Turtle programme and, given that it failed (regardless of timescale), this shows that his product was unsound.

I doubt whether or not many retail traders would stick with a system for longer than 6 months without a it working successfully?

Do you think Glaxo Smithkline would keep a failing drug experiment running because they originally thought it would take 3 years to prove it right, where it was obvious it wasn't working after 6 months?

As for the other bits, Mike had 8000 people to choose from and I'm sure the Turtles are intelligent human beings - otherwise why have a selection process involving psychologists and tests to narrow it down to people who naturally fit the archetypal profile of a trader? He'd have arranged a lottery but you'd never do that with real money.

I believe that The Turtles were isolated from the rest of Training Traders and therefore the demise of one should have minimal consequence for the other. It seems as though TT fell apart so rapidly because it was a house of cards

 

[Digbyarbuthnot]

It is these unknown methods which I am trying to discover, so a rational disection of them can take place, but it seems to be the hardest thing to extract.
When I sat in on one of the workshops, Mr. B stated that his trading system had been condensed into 22 rules and written into a book.
What are some of the 22 rules and does this book actually exist? I asked something similar to this of 'merkozy' who claims to be a client of TT..
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/144314-mike-baghdady-should-i-take-course-not-123.html
..but have yet to receive a response..

Gotchya! Now I get you sir.

Maybe one of the other people who have taken the course can share course notes with you? Kruger9 claims to have done the course

 

[pboyles]

As for the other bits, Mike had 8000 people to choose from and I'm sure the Turtles are intelligent human beings - otherwise why have a selection process involving psychologists and tests to narrow it down to people who naturally fit the archetypal profile of a trader? He'd have arranged a lottery but you'd never do that with real money.

s

Wasn't the whole point that he could teach anybody to trade successfully? The inference being that no matter how stupid you are if you paid your money and did the course you'd be successful. If he can neither trade successfully himself or indeed train the best candidates out of a pool of 8000 then clearly the whole thing was a charade. It was doomed to failure and has brought TT down with it. I'm sure they thought they were being very clever at the beginning, they were looking at how much they could make rather than how much they could lose.

 

[pipsplease]

It is these unknown methods which I am trying to discover, so a rational disection of them can take place, but it seems to be the hardest thing to extract.
When I sat in on one of the workshops, Mr. B stated that his trading system had been condensed into 22 rules and written into a book.
What are some of the 22 rules and does this book actually exist? I asked something similar to this of 'merkozy' who claims to be a client of TT..
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/first-steps/144314-mike-baghdady-should-i-take-course-not-123.html
..but have yet to receive a response..

Nobody saw Baghdady trade despite all his claims. The turtles were forced to take trades by Baghdady time and time again. These trades almost always failed.
Baghdady claimed in public many times that his rules and his system worked 70% of the time. IT DID NOT.
The turtles were getting way down low on % terms whilst Baghdady was forcing them to take trades to his own rules.
What does that tell you?

 

[emelen73]

Gotchya! Now I get you sir.

Maybe one of the other people who have taken the course can share course notes with you? Kruger9 claims to have done the course

My apologies for not making my point clearer, sooner..

 

[the hare]

Are you trading by Mike Baghdady's rules note for note?

Personally I believe Mike Baghdady is a fraud, and thankfully I dont need to trade anyone elses method

My point is that the ONLY acid test/placebo/litmus test in the whole world that exists to prove definitely whether or not Mike Baghdady's rules work was the Turtle progamme.

Partially true, but they need a sufficient sample size of trades to determine that. The objective was that the group would make money over 3 years, not that they would create profitable traders. There's a very big distinction between those two objectives. 10 people could have lost money, and 3 made money, and the group could still have been profitable

Banghdady & Ben Tuckey made a rod for their backs with the Turtle programme and, given that it failed (regardless of timescale), this shows that his product was unsound.

No it doesnt

I doubt whether or not many retail traders would stick with a system for longer than 6 months without a it working successfully?

Most retail traders have completely unrealistic expectations, we are talking about making money, not playing some deluded fantasy game based on what retail traders believe is achievable

Do you think Glaxo Smithkline would keep a failing drug experiment running because they originally thought it would take 3 years to prove it right, where it was obvious it wasn't working after 6 months?

As someone who spent most of my early career in industrial R&D I would say they'd do whatever it took to achieve stattistically significant results, and if they needed 3 years, then they'd stick at it for 3 years.

As for the other bits, Mike had 8000 people to choose from and I'm sure the Turtles are intelligent human beings - otherwise why have a selection process involving psychologists and tests to narrow it down to people who naturally fit the archetypal profile of a trader? He'd have arranged a lottery but you'd never do that with real money.

I agree entirely, but Mr B is a clueless individual with far too much of an ego problem to undertake a sensible selection process. It was never about the turtles anyway, they where just used to sell training.

I believe that The Turtles were isolated from the rest of Training Traders and therefore the demise of one should have minimal consequence for the other. It seems as though TT fell apart so rapidly because it was a house of cards

Again I agree, there was insufficient funding in place to run the experment in isolation, he believed one or the other businesses would be successful enough to sustain the other