Might be worth watching dow binaries

arabianights

Legendary member
6,725 1,377
I got fifty one quid per point on dow finishing up over three hundred points today mostly at a price of one all before the opening. While in this case it hasn't worked it might be worth keeping an eye out... Those are very good odds.
 

Vaco

Senior member
2,134 269
Not sure if i'm reading this right but your telling me that to win the bet the dow would have to close up 300 pts so 12500:confused:

Am i reading that right cause If I am then your chances are slim
 

jmh0

Junior member
12 0
Arabian,

I worked out a system for trading Dow spread bets. Maybe you'll find it interesting. This system is for very short term spread bets as they tend to whipsaw around at expiry, I only like to play this with a few minutes left.

1. Follow the Dow trend through strike prices (as Dow goes up thru 12100 you buy, if it goes down thru 12100 short). Once you have a position don't reverse out of it.

2. Buy/short as close to 50 as possible, do this only with <5 minutes to expiry. Trade only between 45-55 so you don't get killed by the market maker spread.

3. Optionally: If the trade goes to 95 (5 on short side) dump it. You may enter this order as soon as you receive a fill.

4. Just to make sure you make money! If you lose, double the amount for each loss until you win. Of course you'll need a large account in the unlucky event you lose many in a row. Spread betting is gambling after all.

jmh0


I got fifty one quid per point on dow finishing up over three hundred points today mostly at a price of one all before the opening. While in this case it hasn't worked it might be worth keeping an eye out... Those are very good odds.
 

shadowninja

Legendary member
5,524 643
4. Just to make sure you make money! If you lose, double the amount for each loss until you win. Of course you'll need a large account in the unlucky event you lose many in a row. Spread betting is gambling after all.
:LOL: and :LOL:

It's the quickest route to flipping burgers for a job. I wonder if Spanish89 uses Martingale. I must tell him about it.
 

arabianights

Legendary member
6,725 1,377
4. Just to make sure you make money! If you lose, double the amount for each loss until you win. Of course you'll need a large account in the unlucky event you lose many in a row. Spread betting is gambling after all.
Lol!

As for binaries...
They're encapsulated fix odds bets basically priced from d2 and the order book. Only way to win on them is when you think the odds are wrong. And 99-1 on a three hundred point rise on the dow is just wrong at the moment. In my opinion anyway.
 

Vaco

Senior member
2,134 269
Lol!

As for binaries...
They're encapsulated fix odds bets basically priced from d2 and the order book. Only way to win on them is when you think the odds are wrong. And 99-1 on a three hundred point rise on the dow is just wrong at the moment. In my opinion anyway.

That depends on how long the bet stays live for, its very rare for the dow to make that big a jump up in one day even in a bull market, were currently looking very rangebound leaning to the bearish side so even more unlikely. Average daily range for the dow is 150 approx. now over 2 days thats a different story.
 

Baldwreck

Active member
118 6
....its very rare for the dow to make that big a jump up in one day even in a bull market....
Now that's an interesting thought - could not resist a bit of research. On one analysis Arabian is right - there have been 6 days since 18th Sept 07 when the Dow has made this sort of move (say 2.5% up), so on that analysis the statistical odds are about 1 in 33
of success so Arabian would have been in the money. However..

Up until September 07 you have to go way back to March 2003 to find this sort of move - so perhaps unexpectedly in the 03/07 bull market there were no large one day upwards moves.

Digging even further back there are amazingly long periods of low volatility - for example between Dec 1991 and April 1997 not once did the market have a 2.5% upward move in a day - so Arabian would have been a poor man.

I think Arabian might well be right a the moment though as the market tries to find direction In my view we will see large one day moves either up or down in what is likely to be a bear market until the banking system sorts itself out.
 

Vaco

Senior member
2,134 269
baldwrek,

the only problem is that even if you to place this bet every day untill your horse comes in, by the time it does the odds given will probably have changed. Surely its wiser to place a standard bet via spreadbettingand then even if the market only ralies 1% your still in the money.
 

Baldwreck

Active member
118 6
baldwrek,

the only problem is that even if you to place this bet every day untill your horse comes in, by the time it does the odds given will probably have changed. Surely its wiser to place a standard bet via spreadbettingand then even if the market only ralies 1% your still in the money.
Well of course you are right - this only works - if the odds you can get are better than the theorectical probability of success - all I was pointing out was that with odds of 99-1 or similar if the probability of success is 33-1 then you will make money.

In terms of style - I'm with you - I don't do long odds bets - usually the longest I will take on is 3-1 and then only then if I reckon there is at least an evens chance of success.
 

arabianights

Legendary member
6,725 1,377
Guess which bumhead had the long >300 dow binary?

So my trading performance today was a loss on Euribor, a loss on Euroswiss, a loss on Short Sterling, a loss on FTSE, a loss on the gilt and a loss on that binary. Not terribly impressive... Admittedly I only lost a grand somehow as all losses were small but that kind of performance is less than ideal!
 

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