Microwave Ovens

[Pat Riley]

Have ya ever wondered why ya shouldn't put anything metal in a microwave oven and then wondered why that should be given that the inside of one is made entirely of metal?

I did a bit a basic research and now I understand, so please don't be comin here and telling me what I already know and depriving others who may be similarly interested in finding out for themselves.

Me point is, what led me to not ask that question before now? And how many other things am I not botherin ta check out that I take for granted on a daily basis?

And, if I'm honest, the whole point of this thread, ain't that a bit like anything ya interested in? You take the time to find out more because you're interested - obviously. Ya can't feign that interest, it has ta be real or ya won't bother. I think that's where most people are with most things. They're happy to use them without knowin what, why or how they work.

Which is why it's such a powerful thing to be interested enough and do a bit a basic research, you suddenly become a local expert for a very little effort.

And then I got ta thinkin a bit more, if everyone here on this site is so interested in trading, the levels of expertise should grow exponentially as each finds out more and more about their interest. But I get the sense that this exponential growth doesn't occur or if it does, it doesn't translate into successful trading.

Now, that has got me interested. Why would that be the case I wonder?

 

[Pat Riley]

Yarl Right Pat?

Now the spirits are telling me that as trading is generally a zero sum game (excepting stocks) then the more knowledge people have the more it will even out and any edge will continually diminish as the increase in knowledge makes trading ever more efficient.

The problem is that people can't handle the truth.

I'm fine thank ya.

Ya might be right, but I have me doubts on a number of levels. EMH is just that, an 'H' and with me own woefully limited experience, I know it ain't as far as I can see anyhow. And the number of traders here and on other such sites is a drop in the ocean - their combined expertise and capitalisation and trading methods even if all in tune would not a jot of difference make to the markets overall.

As fer advancing hypotheses meself I can think of a few in which I've got extremely limited faith, but it might get the ball rolling. It could be that it all goes in one ear and out the other. Or that its retention in memory is too limited to allow germination, focus gets pulled somewhere else. Or there's simply too many things to handle and they're all too complex or too few and too simple ta be believed.

I appreciate I'm not one to talk authoritatively on retail trading or retail traders as I've got blessed little exposure, but it's the issue of knowledge acquisition and utilisation I guess I'm flapping on about.

It's as if you had 370,000 people interested in making a functional microwave. You explain the why, how, where, when and what of it all - engineering principles, expectations of user experience, physics, electricity, manufacturing principles. You'd only need a smattering of each of em to make a go of it, and then you find only half a dozen end up making a decent shot at making a microwave. If that were to occur you'd wonder if perhaps they weren't that interested in trading per se in the first place. And if you accept that as a premise just for argument's sake, you'd then reasonably ask, if they're not interested in that, then what is it here on this site, and others like it, that they are interested in?

 

[malaguti]

It's as if you had 370,000 people interested in making a functional microwave. You explain the why, how, where, when and what of it all - engineering principles, expectations of user experience, physics, electricity, manufacturing principles.

this in my opinion is what's missing, yes you can tell people about electricity, and give them chapter and verse about principles, likewise you could give a person an egg, bowl and some custard...but you aren't going to get a souffle.

People need the recipe, not just the materials. Otherwise each and every one is simply reinventing the wheel.

I'll use another analogy if I may, parenting. We've got the baby; very unpredictable little thing, She screams, poos and sleeps.

Little one screams, we think she wants food, she screams harder, we think she's tired, put her to sleep she screams louder, we think she's ill, she screams louder, we think her nappy needs changing she screams louder..all of a sudden she farts and she's quiet again
We had our parents, inlaws, brothers, sisters with children of their own, could they get her to stop screaming, no. Why, Pat if they have been there before could they not understand what the screaming baby wanted. Thye new all the principles, had the experience they have children themselves

Market is likewise just as unpredictable. Just like a baby there are only a few states the market can be in, we have all the tools to conquer it, all the experience of child birth yet nobody but that baby can tell you what she wants and all we keep on doing is applying the wrong formula at the wrong time hoping that one of them will work

Just like each and every parent has to go through the same learning curve every trader has to endure the unpredictability until eventually she's able to communicate to you and tells you she's got wind. We all have to wait until the market starts communicating to us. And that takes some time, its at her pace not yours.
That's my view anyway.