Martingale: Why does this not work? Any value to this?

trendie

Legendary member
6,478 1,089
Why is martingale so frowned upon? (apart from the exponential account-busting element)

Are there any variations to Martingale that are actually helpful?
Is Martingale anything other than just doubling up every loss? Any clever variations?

Are there any redeeming features to it?

I feel I have a cunning plan.....
 
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Rufus_Leakey

Active member
128 26
 

Pat494

Legendary member
14,377 1,504
As some wit said - the markets can remain irrational longer than your account can stand it.
However I have tried stake, then 1.5 times stake, then 2 times stake then close on a stop loss.
With mixed results,
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,581 920
.....(apart from the exponential account-busting element)....
You have answered your own question with the above and even a cursory look at statistical probabilites is all you need to know that it is flawed. You soon realise that even with a 90% probablility of success you will eventually get a run of consecutive losses that will kill your account.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,097 1,199
Nobody has an account big enough to withstand the run of losses - and the gain each time you win is insignificant compared to accumulated losses.
 

trendie

Legendary member
6,478 1,089
The above assumptions are presumably based on doubling up, each time.
Increase by 1.5 multiples, as per Pat, and the loss outcomes aren't exponential.

Also, I am guessing you are going for a 1:1 risk:reward?
 

tomorton

Legendary member
8,097 1,199
I'm meaning you double the stake after each loss and re-set to the minimum stake after each win. Classic Martingale style. Also that there is exactly a 50% probability of winning back the stake.
 

fibo_trader

Legendary member
7,125 124
Why is martingale so frowned upon? (apart from the exponential account-busting element)

Are there any variations to Martingale that are actually helpful?
Is Martingale anything other than just doubling up every loss? Any clever variations?

Are there any redeeming features to it?

I feel I have a cunning plan.....

>>> Why is martingale so frowned upon? (apart from the exponential account-busting element) <<<
because the Devil loves the stampede to HELL

>>> Are there any variations to Martingale that are actually helpful? <<<
SELL SELL SELL

>>> Is Martingale anything other than just doubling up every loss?<<<
catching a falling knife with your d*** instead of hands

>>> Any clever variations?<<<
Double on SELL

>>> Are there any redeeming features to it? <<<
It defines Sodomy in the extreme
 

fibo_trader

Legendary member
7,125 124

Post a live trade, Professor. Those who can't do, teach how to do. Go figure. Those who can't get a good job in their industry, become Professors. These professors then teach fresh young students how to do. = No way Jose! Will never work, has never worked!
 

trendie

Legendary member
6,478 1,089
(y)
good work. Trendie the 100% blind follower is now for the first time ever going against the grain and examining what the CROWD around him votes Unanimous.

Who knows but there is a possibility he might get banned 3 times and join the Elite Club below

View attachment 273378
Thanks, Fibo! I shall take your thumbs-up at face value.
A few threads back, we backed-and-forthed about accumulating positions over larger TFs, and aggregating.
I have always had an inkling there was a way to use it as mitigating positions, but only recently over past few weekends crunched the numbers.
What I have posted is a generic, static concept of what would be a dynamic idea.
But, hopefully, the principle is clear.
 

fibo_trader

Legendary member
7,125 124
Thanks, Fibo! I shall take your thumbs-up at face value.
A few threads back, we backed-and-forthed about accumulating positions over larger TFs, and aggregating.
I have always had an inkling there was a way to use it as mitigating positions, but only recently over past few weekends crunched the numbers.
What I have posted is a generic, static concept of what would be a dynamic idea.
But, hopefully, the principle is clear.

Whatever you get from me, is always 100% genuine. If you get a thumbs up its 100% intended. If you get a kick in the ass, that too is 100%. The only exceptions are what Trader333 calls snide comments - but these I always follow up with the real deal and state it. :):):)

Good work. I like the way you're thinking on this. I might even look into it some more. I'll tell you why - in areas of Life outside of TRADING ................ but might sure a heck apply in TRADING (yet to be examined over weeks)

SALES: hit one the first prospect, says NO, hit on 2 more, all say NO, hit on 4 prospects all say NO, keep going ............ the DAM busts wide open and 300 prospects thereafter say YES and not only that, most give referrals. The blood and sweat of the NOs returned a Rate of Return of 5000%

Women: No NO NO NO NO Yes, yes yes .................... continues for weeks, then the cycle starts all over again. thus far never have ever gone with more than 5 rejects by women I hit on one after the other. When the tide turns, incredibly, they hit on me.

Follows the Law:
He who would inflow must first outflow
 
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