Martingale: Why does this not work? Any value to this?

[trendie]

Why is martingale so frowned upon? (apart from the exponential account-busting element)

Are there any variations to Martingale that are actually helpful?
Is Martingale anything other than just doubling up every loss? Any clever variations?

Are there any redeeming features to it?

I feel I have a cunning plan.....

 

[Rufus_Leakey]

Anti-Martingale System: What it is, How it Works, Examples

The anti-Martingale system is a trading method that involves halving a bet each time there is a trade loss, and doubling it each time there is a gain.

www.investopedia.com

Reverse Martingale (Testing purpose)

Hello All, just now i think of a strategy that everyone can follow this is still testing purpose only. heres how : its called Reverse Martingale, it works on any fx pairs, any stocks, or any market. Step1.) BUY and SELL AT THE SAME PRICE, both orders is 1 lot on demo. set Takeprofit and...

www.trade2win.com

 

[Pat494]

As some wit said - the markets can remain irrational longer than your account can stand it.
However I have tried stake, then 1.5 times stake, then 2 times stake then close on a stop loss.
With mixed results,

 

[Trader333]

.....(apart from the exponential account-busting element)....

You have answered your own question with the above and even a cursory look at statistical probabilites is all you need to know that it is flawed. You soon realise that even with a 90% probablility of success you will eventually get a run of consecutive losses that will kill your account.

 

[tomorton]

Nobody has an account big enough to withstand the run of losses - and the gain each time you win is insignificant compared to accumulated losses.

 

[trendie]

The above assumptions are presumably based on doubling up, each time.
Increase by 1.5 multiples, as per Pat, and the loss outcomes aren't exponential.

Also, I am guessing you are going for a 1:1 risk:reward?

 

[tomorton]

I'm meaning you double the stake after each loss and re-set to the minimum stake after each win. Classic Martingale style. Also that there is exactly a 50% probability of winning back the stake.

 

[ffsear]

You'd need a very big bank roll

 

[trendie]

Bear with me.
Writing up an Excel......

 

[fibo_trader]

Why is martingale so frowned upon? (apart from the exponential account-busting element)

Are there any variations to Martingale that are actually helpful?
Is Martingale anything other than just doubling up every loss? Any clever variations?

Are there any redeeming features to it?

I feel I have a cunning plan.....

>>> Why is martingale so frowned upon? (apart from the exponential account-busting element) <<<
because the Devil loves the stampede to HELL

>>> Are there any variations to Martingale that are actually helpful? <<<
SELL SELL SELL

>>> Is Martingale anything other than just doubling up every loss?<<<
catching a falling knife with your d*** instead of hands

>>> Any clever variations?<<<
Double on SELL

>>> Are there any redeeming features to it? <<<
It defines Sodomy in the extreme

 

[trendie]

 

[fibo_trader]

View attachment 273376

good work. Trendie the 100% blind follower is now for the first time ever going against the grain and examining what the CROWD around him votes Unanimous.

Who knows but there is a possibility he might get banned 3 times and join the Elite Club below

 

[fibo_trader]

Anti-Martingale System: What it is, How it Works, Examples

The anti-Martingale system is a trading method that involves halving a bet each time there is a trade loss, and doubling it each time there is a gain.

www.investopedia.com

Reverse Martingale (Testing purpose)

Hello All, just now i think of a strategy that everyone can follow this is still testing purpose only. heres how : its called Reverse Martingale, it works on any fx pairs, any stocks, or any market. Step1.) BUY and SELL AT THE SAME PRICE, both orders is 1 lot on demo. set Takeprofit and...

www.trade2win.com

Post a live trade, Professor. Those who can't do, teach how to do. Go figure. Those who can't get a good job in their industry, become Professors. These professors then teach fresh young students how to do. = No way Jose! Will never work, has never worked!

 

[trendie]

good work. Trendie the 100% blind follower is now for the first time ever going against the grain and examining what the CROWD around him votes Unanimous.

Who knows but there is a possibility he might get banned 3 times and join the Elite Club below

View attachment 273378

Thanks, Fibo! I shall take your thumbs-up at face value.
A few threads back, we backed-and-forthed about accumulating positions over larger TFs, and aggregating.
I have always had an inkling there was a way to use it as mitigating positions, but only recently over past few weekends crunched the numbers.
What I have posted is a generic, static concept of what would be a dynamic idea.
But, hopefully, the principle is clear.

 

[fibo_trader]

Thanks, Fibo! I shall take your thumbs-up at face value.
A few threads back, we backed-and-forthed about accumulating positions over larger TFs, and aggregating.
I have always had an inkling there was a way to use it as mitigating positions, but only recently over past few weekends crunched the numbers.
What I have posted is a generic, static concept of what would be a dynamic idea.
But, hopefully, the principle is clear.

Whatever you get from me, is always 100% genuine. If you get a thumbs up its 100% intended. If you get a kick in the ass, that too is 100%. The only exceptions are what Trader333 calls snide comments - but these I always follow up with the real deal and state it.

Good work. I like the way you're thinking on this. I might even look into it some more. I'll tell you why - in areas of Life outside of TRADING ................ but might sure a heck apply in TRADING (yet to be examined over weeks)

SALES: hit one the first prospect, says NO, hit on 2 more, all say NO, hit on 4 prospects all say NO, keep going ............ the DAM busts wide open and 300 prospects thereafter say YES and not only that, most give referrals. The blood and sweat of the NOs returned a Rate of Return of 5000%

Women: No NO NO NO NO Yes, yes yes .................... continues for weeks, then the cycle starts all over again. thus far never have ever gone with more than 5 rejects by women I hit on one after the other. When the tide turns, incredibly, they hit on me.

Follows the Law:
He who would inflow must first outflow

 

[fibo_trader]

Whatever you get from me, is always 100% genuine. If you get a thumbs up its 100% intended. If you get a kick in the ass, that too is 100%. The only exceptions are what Trader333 calls snide comments - but these I always follow up with the real deal and state it.

Good work. I like the way you're thinking on this. I might even look into it some more. I'll tell you why - in areas of Life outside of TRADING ................ but might sure a heck apply in TRADING (yet to be examined over weeks)

SALES: hit one the first prospect, says NO, hit on 2 more, all say NO, hit on 4 prospects all say NO, keep going ............ the DAM busts wide open and 300 prospects thereafter say YES and not only that, most give referrals. The blood and sweat of the NOs returned a Rate of Return of 5000%

Women: No NO NO NO NO Yes, yes yes .................... continues for weeks, then the cycle starts all over again. thus far never have ever gone with more than 5 rejects by women I hit on one after the other. When the tide turns, incredibly, they hit on me.

Follows the Law:
He who would inflow must first outflow

Just as in TRADING the Martingale requires supremely deep pockets and often even the pockets of friends and family, so too is the requirement in the other spheres of Life mentioned above - but these are all in the psychological deep pocket category. Most fellas I know, just one NO can floor 'em, 2 will destroy 'em. Two NOs in a row from women would send them to an early grave from which they might never recover.

Not Fibo!

From this logic stems the FIBO Law: The darkest hour is just before dawn.

 

[fibo_trader]

Martingale applied by Fibo at the 200-day ema: by getting a good estimation of the Coefficient of Restitution first.

has never failed EVER and has always returned massive RR.

Have not yet tried it in other instances.

 

[counter_violent]

View attachment 273376

Can you give us a walk through, how you would play it.

 

[trendie]

Can you give us a walk through, how you would play it.

Will walk-through later tonight, or, more likely, Monday lunchtime.

 

[counter_violent]

Will walk-through later tonight, or, more likely, Monday lunchtime.

Cool