Market Wizards - Survivorship Bias ?

[Xeno]

So, what have we learnt on this thread. That survivorship bias is real, and that it's got the word 'bias' in its name because a significant number of people don't take it into account.

So, to turn the argument on its head, while there are almost certainly varying amounts of luck involved with the wizards, do we accept that their records, if true, prove that it is possible that skill, discipline and a system with an edge can make you a successful trader for much longer than pure luck would allow, even with survivorship bias.

 

[DionysusToast]

GJ

We have 2 camps.

1 - Those that accept that luck is a possibility
2 - Those that cannot accept that luck had anything to do with it

Interestingly - group 1 will accept that it may have been skill or luck. There's not much to go on. No 'statistical rigour' if you like. Group 1 is open minded to the possibility of it being total luck, some luck or just skill.

On the other hand, group 2 is dogmatic. They have a belief and are sticking with it.

It is an interesting dynamic.

 

[virtuos0]

I would define the two camps like this:

1 - Those that accept that luck is a possiblilty
2 - Retards

 

[DionysusToast]

I would define the two camps like this:

1 - Those that accept that luck is a possiblilty
2 - Retards

I actually woke the baby laughing at that !

 

[Mr. Charts]

Worse than Pat Butcher / Moira Stewart?

Moira Stewart ! ?
She's rather nice.......if that's not a gay thing to say

 

[Mr. Charts]

"Luck" morphs into probability with experience and skill, except in extremis where it can still disrupt.
Richard

 

[GammaJammer]

Moira Stewart ! ?
She's rather nice.......if that's not a gay thing to say

All personal opinion dude so it's not my place to say. ALthough unless you look like Pam St. Clement I wouldn't beat yourself up too much as you've got two hopes - Bob Hope and No Hope...

 

[Mr. Charts]

All personal opinion dude so it's not my place to say. ALthough unless you look like Pam St. Clement I wouldn't beat yourself up too much as you've got two hopes - Bob Hope and No Hope...

Had to google Pam St. Clement.........you don't really spend your evenings watching BeastEnders do you? !

 

[montmorencyt2w]

GJ

We have 2 camps.

1 - Those that accept that luck is a possibility
2 - Those that cannot accept that luck had anything to do with it

Interestingly - group 1 will accept that it may have been skill or luck. There's not much to go on. No 'statistical rigour' if you like. Group 1 is open minded to the possibility of it being total luck, some luck or just skill.

On the other hand, group 2 is dogmatic. They have a belief and are sticking with it.

It is an interesting dynamic.

Going back to my "show business" analogy for a moment, and away from trading, I would repeat that you need talent (or skills, like in the jobs you mentioned), and you need luck.

However, I think there is a category of people who succeed without talent, with luck, but also with the intelligence to know fully that they got there by luck, and also to make the best use of their luck. These might include those people who are famous simply for being famous. They may be vacuous, and you might not want to have them round to dinner, although they are good at what they do (whatever it is). Part of being lucky that way probably involves having charm, and people like having such people around, even if they appear to contribute very little.


I can't ignore the old saw about "...the harder I work, the luckier I seem to get...". Some do, but I know plenty of people who work very hard, but who do not appear to be very lucky.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

Going back to technical analysis, would TA have helped predict the sharp rally in the Yen following Obama's speech this afternoon?


"Beastenders" .... only in an ironic way ...

 

[blancspa]

Going back to technical analysis, would TA have helped predict the sharp rally in the Yen following Obama's speech this afternoon?


"Beastenders" .... only in an ironic way ...

yes, most defenitely

 

[montmorencyt2w]

yes, most defenitely

How?

 

[blancspa]

how?

ll, lh

 

[zupcon]

Going back to technical analysis, would TA have helped predict the sharp rally in the Yen following Obama's speech this afternoon?

TA is not supposed to be predictive. Those who assume it is are almost certainly guarenteed to fail.

 

[Trader333]

TA is not supposed to be predictive. Those who assume it is are almost certainly guarenteed to fail.

Unless they happen to be lucky


Paul

 

[dcraig1]

Going back to technical analysis, would TA have helped predict the sharp rally in the Yen following Obama's speech this afternoon?


"Beastenders" .... only in an ironic way ...

There have been technical indications that something is up for a week or two - increasing volatility in the equities markets, the HSI has been very weak etc. No, you can't predict news events, but you can be forewarned of possibilities.

 

[Mr. Charts]

For me TA includes a great deal more than merely a wide range of indicators of very limited use, if any at all.
It's a bit like driving: rules and regulations plus the discretion and judgement experience provide.
The latter help you anticipate the probability/possibility of situations ahead, not the certainty of foretelling the future. For example wet roads at 2 degreesC mean there might be black ice.
Richard

 

[blancspa]

the debate on predictions vs probabilities is so old like the phrase REFERENCES on REQUEST on my CV,
thanks to TA I have shorted all against dollar today , including my gf
and I cannot imagine people, unless you seeking alpha in high frequncy or value investing to trade without a chart, market profile etc