lumber

[price777999]

Hi im new here and not been trading long .

is it a good time to short lumber as construction is going down there should be less demand ?

im using finspreads.com

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Hi im new here and not been trading long .

is it a good time to short lumber as construction is going down there should be less demand ?

im using finspreads.com

Yo dude,

The mere fact you are asking this question is a sure indication you are not sure of any position and are asking all and sundry. You are also, as you say, 'new to trading'.

If we look at lumber we'll see some very harsh movements, so, this is not a market for the weak. The one and only contract you will get a quote for is sept which expires on monday the 8th of that month. Trading times are only between 3p.m and 7p.m (GMT) so also gives less time to trade than many other markets, 4 hours trading time a day.. Margin factor is also 300 times quantitiy for which you could find alot more instruments that gives better margin requirements over target price.

In short, find something else to trade as it would seem by your general enquiry you're not sure yourself. One thing for sure is, the movements are a step beyond volatile, the margin required to maintain contracts is way too high and the trading hours are short.

If you go back to the 14th may this year you'll see a spike upwards on opening of over 15%. Stops are handy but guaranteeing them will cost you money that could be put to better use elsewhere. The trading range is for specialists only.

If in doubt, stay out.

 

[fifty2aces]

Everything Lee said is sound advice, but I'd also add that when dealing with fundamentals, things tend to get "priced in" very quickly. If people are trading lumber professionally, they'll have already thought of what you posted a long time ago, and will already have sold. Because everyone else has sold, there is no-one left to drive the price down, so you are pretty much selling the bottom, unless any new information comes up.

If you held me at gunpoint and asked me to go long or short lumber, I'd be more inclined to go long. That said, if I had the option, I'd stay well away. Ultimately, my advice would be to stick with something more "sensible" - eminis, major currencies, and bunds are all popular for good reasons.

 

[EminiForecaster]

Very, very volatile market, can eat you for lunch, I wouldn't recomend to new traders, stick with what you know price777999

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Eminiforecaster is right,

Leaf it alone, I wood if I were you.
You are certainly barking up the wrong tree with this commodity.
Theres a lot of information to digest and sometimes you cant see the woods for the trees. It's good to read others opinions so remember to 'log' in frequently. Maybe you need to branch out into other market sectors, you need to get to the root of the matter. Playing with lumber could see your account balance fall quicker than you can say 'timber'. It's a jungle out there so be careful. Take a deep breath, count to one, two, tree then think of a different market.
Well, I've run out of things to say, yep, I'm stumped so I'm loggin out.

 

[shadowninja]

You were desperate to post that weren't you, Lee. Mind you, if you hadn't... I wood have.

 

[price777999]

Eminiforecaster is right,

Leaf it alone, I wood if I were you.
You are certainly barking up the wrong tree with this commodity.
Theres a lot of information to digest and sometimes you cant see the woods for the trees. It's good to read others opinions so remember to 'log' in frequently. Maybe you need to branch out into other market sectors, you need to get to the root of the matter. Playing with lumber could see your account balance fall quicker than you can say 'timber'. It's a jungle out there so be careful. Take a deep breath, count to one, two, tree then think of a different market.
Well, I've run out of things to say, yep, I'm stumped so I'm loggin out.

class reply !

 

[wmbelg]

Look at the long term chart, if if shoots down to 180$, the risk is relatively limited.

James Mound would oppt for options as a more safer way to trade it.

Actually James is waiting for a drop to 180$.

 

[eagletower]

Eminiforecaster is right,

Leaf it alone, I wood if I were you.
You are certainly barking up the wrong tree with this commodity.
Theres a lot of information to digest and sometimes you cant see the woods for the trees. It's good to read others opinions so remember to 'log' in frequently. Maybe you need to branch out into other market sectors, you need to get to the root of the matter. Playing with lumber could see your account balance fall quicker than you can say 'timber'. It's a jungle out there so be careful. Take a deep breath, count to one, two, tree then think of a different market.
Well, I've run out of things to say, yep, I'm stumped so I'm loggin out.

that made me spit out my tea on my keyboard

 

[wmbelg]

Please vote at http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/poll/poll.php?sid=4279

to have the elctronic lumber futures in place.

Hurry before the housing market in the US pick up again

 

[wmbelg]

(potential) Lumber traders why aren't you voting?

 

[wmbelg]

1$ for each voter on my poll http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/poll/poll.php?sid=4279!!!!

Lumber traders you have to act NOW!

 

[wmbelg]

Because you wouldn't vote, we are not able to profit from the current (start of) rally in lumber futures.

Shame on you!!!

You can still vote before Xmas.

 

[wmbelg]

See hat happened: Lumber up more than 20$.

Because YOU didn't vote on my poll, ME (and other lumber trading that don't know about this poll) are missing now 2200$ per contract.

Vote!Vote!Vote!Vote! Think you are voting for your president.

 

[wmbelg]

I voted then for myself, so there is now 1 vote for my poll at interactivebrokers.

 

[megamuel]

Eminiforecaster is right,

Leaf it alone, I wood if I were you.
You are certainly barking up the wrong tree with this commodity.
Theres a lot of information to digest and sometimes you cant see the woods for the trees. It's good to read others opinions so remember to 'log' in frequently. Maybe you need to branch out into other market sectors, you need to get to the root of the matter. Playing with lumber could see your account balance fall quicker than you can say 'timber'. It's a jungle out there so be careful. Take a deep breath, count to one, two, tree then think of a different market.
Well, I've run out of things to say, yep, I'm stumped so I'm loggin out.

'Bark'ing mad!

 

[wmbelg]

Limit up, let the big profits come in (or cut your losses if you bought earlier) ! But not for the customers of InterActivebrokers. They can't trade it. Shame on you InteractiveBrokers.

For lumber we customers are not Interactive or active at all.

 

[wmbelg]

See hat happened: Lumber up more than 20$.

Because YOU didn't vote on my poll, ME (and other lumber trading that don't know about this poll) are missing now 2200$ per contract.

Vote!Vote!Vote!Vote! Think you are voting for your president.

US customers: Obama wants you to vote the poll so that traders can support teh price of lumber and therefore get more people at work in that business.


Vote, do what your president orders you to do!!!!

If you voted Obama, YOU MUST vote the lumber poll too!!!!!

 

[Rosie140]

Lumber went up in one hit from 138 to 148!

Anyone any views on how low we can go? Isee historically the 30yr low is around 100, but there is obviously a lot more cash in the economy now.

 

[wmbelg]

Lumber went up in one hit from 138 to 148!

Anyone any views on how low we can go? Isee historically the 30yr low is around 100, but there is obviously a lot more cash in the economy now.

You have to count in that energy prices are still higher than in the past, that lumber is now not just a cut-timber business.

But the most important question is, did you vote my poll???????????????,

Remmember Obama wants you to vote it.