Longer term DOW...

ChartMan

Well-known member
Nov 16, 2000
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#1
I've just had a peek at the longer term DOW to see what gives....What gives is that I think we are at a bottom. The three indicators shown ( as well as others) are all sitting at long term low support ( or high, in the case of TRIN).Given also that we are sitting on a solid 9700 ish horizontal support, there should be no more downside from here. So , barring some adverse comments from someone over there, we should be on an up now, to another re-test of 10,250?
 

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madasafish

Active member
Mar 13, 2001
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Stoke on Trent
#2
I can't read the chart

Chartman has posted.. is it me or the site? BUT I've looked at my daily Dow chart attached.

You can see the Dow has eventually hit the 200 day MA at the top of the chart (the red line), bounced above and then fell. Interestingly all the indicators are falling to levels corresponding to October values on the way up.

Obviously ROC is falling off.

Yes we are in a rally stage, but it's very weak as every rise is promptly sold off .. some gains are being held but it is weak...

CCI is oversold.. the blue exclamation marks at the lower part of the chart.. BUT the Bollinger Bands (purple) have widened and we are in a downside break (the B signal) so we are breaking up as a reaction from oversold and the candles are not very tall and are red for the past 2 days.. showing a very weak rally.

Of course this rally could develop into something stronger but this chart at present does not say that..
 

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RogerM

Active member
Mar 3, 2001
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www.roomatlas.com
#3
I think it all depends on what time frame is meant by the "longer term". I would agree that over the course of the next few days/couple of weeks that we may indeed see a retest of 10250. I would be surprised to see resistance at this level fail tho. 10250 not only marks the resistance of the top of the post 11th Sept rally, but also the long term downtrend from the all time high. I remain bearish. I see nothing to change the view I expressed in the "indices at a pivotal point thread.

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?threadid=3695

This view is supported by the action of the FTSE100 which is bouncing along under the long term downtrend. This is a very difficult position to play anything on the long side, and tending to look for shorts.
 

ChartMan

Well-known member
Nov 16, 2000
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#4
Yes, I agree there's no strength to this "rally". BUT the outlook over the next couple of weeks has to be up, as opposed to down. I just thought it appropriate to point out the strength of support at 9700.....
 

Riz

Well-known member
Nov 17, 2000
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#5
It seems to me like 9700 is going to be there as strong support for some time during which 10250 got little chance of being broken...maybe both backtested again till proofs of economic recovery or the failure of it become visible....and till then I prefer being neither so bearish nor bullish, making use of this wide range looks more sensible to me...

Riz