LLoyds TSB

[winmoney]

It's been another busy weeks for banks, and I wanted to start a thread for LLoyds TSB as there doesn't seem to be one up and running. Over the past 6 months, I've been getting in below £4, thinking this was a bargain price.

However, as we've approaching new lows for the year, and I'm farily heavy in LLoyds TSB, I wondered if anyone had any thoguhts on how far this could go. I noticed it bounced of around 350 in Jan 2008. Generaly LTSB has faired better than other banks when the bad new strikes.

Does anyone see a baragain price at 366 ? Or holding out for lower lows ?

 

[Dope007]

Absolutly no idea of where it will go as like everything it is being heavily affected by traders on leverage. As a long term hold I think they are excellent. Capital position is very strong, dividend is big, and the latest deal with the NRK mortgages is a cracking deal imho.

For me they are a buy, collect the divis, and forget about.

 

[winmoney]

Absolutly no idea of where it will go as like everything it is being heavily affected by traders on leverage. As a long term hold I think they are excellent. Capital position is very strong, dividend is big, and the latest deal with the NRK mortgages is a cracking deal imho.

For me they are a buy, collect the divis, and forget about.

Please to hear something which backs up my own thoughts. I've bought shares and CFD's. It's the CFD's I'm concerned about as i think I over leveraged myself, and anything below 350 is going to be a problem.

 

[Hook Shot]

Tricky one...

It's been another busy weeks for banks, and I wanted to start a thread for LLoyds TSB as there doesn't seem to be one up and running. Over the past 6 months, I've been getting in below £4, thinking this was a bargain price.

However, as we've approaching new lows for the year, and I'm farily heavy in LLoyds TSB, I wondered if anyone had any thoguhts on how far this could go. I noticed it bounced of around 350 in Jan 2008. Generaly LTSB has faired better than other banks when the bad new strikes.

Does anyone see a baragain price at 366 ? Or holding out for lower lows ?

I love the banking sector right now but my time horizon is "relatively" long. Conventional wisdom says Lloyds have avoided the worst but my working assumption is they are all as bad as each other ...give or take... consequently I pull up a multi year chart and work from there... so I am looking at 300p at the min.... just as for barclays... I'm also looking for insiders to start buying...

Inicidentally, I noticed Lloy did not make new swing low (which was interesting ..) but Monday is another day ........

Don't know whether this is sensible but it makes sense to me.....

 

[winmoney]

I love the banking sector right now but my time horizon is "relatively" long. Conventional wisdom says Lloyds have avoided the worst but my working assumption is they are all as bad as each other ...give or take... consequently I pull up a multi year chart and work from there... so I am looking at 300p at the min.... just as for barclays... I'm also looking for insiders to start buying...

Inicidentally, I noticed Lloy did not make new swing low (which was interesting ..) but Monday is another day ........

Don't know whether this is sensible but it makes sense to me.....

Although perfectly possible. £3.00 seems a crazy price for a company that hasn't really had any significant problems. It just shows it's more about market sentiment, than hard facts that set these prices.

 

[Splitlink]

I love the banking sector right now but my time horizon is "relatively" long. Conventional wisdom says Lloyds have avoided the worst but my working assumption is they are all as bad as each other ...give or take... consequently I pull up a multi year chart and work from there... so I am looking at 300p at the min.... just as for barclays... I'm also looking for insiders to start buying...

Inicidentally, I noticed Lloy did not make new swing low (which was interesting ..) but Monday is another day ........

Don't know whether this is sensible but it makes sense to me.....

Shortly after the opening, near Friday's high point, though, I considered it a pullback within a down trend and shorted it, rolling it over to Monday. I hope it doesn't bounce tomorrow! As far as strength is concerned, it is very weak relative to its sector.

Really, I shouldn't read these threads after I've opened a trade!

Split

 

[Moxy9]

Although perfectly possible. £3.00 seems a crazy price for a company that hasn't really had any significant problems. It just shows it's more about market sentiment, than hard facts that set these prices.

Look at the banking sector as a whole. Lower lows are still the order of the day. I think it will still be a couple of months before a possible confirmation that the big money is stepping back into the financials.

At the moment, for me, it's like waiting for Santa to turn up at Christmas. I know santa will turn up if i'm good and i wait until he has been before tampering with my gifts, but the temptation is real strong to take a quick look.

When the sector as a whole looks to be making a base, then i will load up my SIPP with as many presents as i can.

 

[winmoney]

General consensus seems to be hold on for a while before getting in

Bit too late for me, but I'll see how Monday plays out. Haven't seen any bad news over the weeked, so maybe there will be some recovery. I think Friday's fall was mainly linked to the rocketing oil prices (the other banks dropped by more %age wise)

 

[winmoney]

350p

Seems to have been testing 350p - Dropped below to 342 this morning - But seems to have spent most of the day hovering around 350 mark.

There's a lot of speculation around Barclays, possibly going cap in hand to B of E. I guess there may be some news over the weekend, that could effect the price downwards. However no negative)news, may lead to a (slow) recovery ?

 

[Jaydee]

I'm looking to buy banks in the future. LLOY does seem like a lower risk stock than some of the more high profile banks. However, I'm pretty bearish about the whole global economy thing and, for that reason, I won't be long for a while yet. I may be waiting as much as 2-3 years if I'm right and there is a big fall but I'm happy to be patient.

Short term, LLOY is in a bit of limbo at the moment. There is some support coming in just below 350 and there was good volume today to back that up which could cause a rally. However, it's in a downtrend, in an uncertain market and with more subprime writedowns and profit warnings from the banking sector likely, I think it could go lower.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck with whatever you feel is right to do.

JD

 

[Splitlink]

This is an observation on my part, not being an expert on the subject, so take it as that.

Anyone who uses Sharescope can do the same.

The charts here are bank stocks with the sector in red. The black line is the share's price relative to the sector.

It can be seen that the sector is falling badly, the LLOY chart is falling relative to it as is the price. BARC is the same.

I decided to have a look at the sector as a whole, to find out which was the strongest. No prizes for that. HSBA.

Until there is some sign of a turn up in the sector and RS, I would not buy LLOY. Wait a little longer.

Can you see how, often, there is digression between the price peak, while the RS is already showing a decline?

 

[Mayfly]

Hi Split,

I've got slightly different take on this because the relative performance of the individual banks within the sector will depend on the base period over which you're measuring them.

So, taking 31/3/2003 as the start point and HSBA (100) as the benchmark, you get this order of results:

1. STAN
2. HSBA
3. LLOY
4. BARC
5. RBS
6. HBOS
7. AL-
8. BB-

So, £100 invested in STAN would've given you £241 at the close on Friday; and so on...

This is ignores the divis, of course.

HTH

Cheers

Mayfly

 

[Splitlink]

Thanks for the post. I've been looking at this, too. I'm not sure what base period to use. Now I'm leaving the sector RS and am comparing with the the Footsie, itself.

Looking at a P&F, as quick as I can get it, i.e. 1% and 1 box reversal, I still think that the strength of HSBA is, by far, the strongest. But. if the market players think that one of the others is a good takeover prospect and is oversold, then it could take off like a rocket. with the others in sympathy.
Another thing to look at is what is in the rights issue pipeline. There are going to be a lot of shares swilling around the market after one of those and we have had RBS and BB. , already.

Split

 

[winmoney]

£3.00 !!!!!

Who would have believed when I started this thread just a few weeks ago we would be at £3.03 (after hours trading). I thought anything below £4 was a bargain !!

The last time it was at this price was May 2003, where it NEVER stopped going up until February 2007 where it hit £6.27. Since then it never stopped going down until now !

The only other time it was £3 a share (over past 30 years) was in 1996. The difference in this case was that the price was going up due to the LLoyds and TSB merger.

Someone PLEASE talk me out of buying at £3 a share as I'm about to put my home on it !!! Constructive objections would be well appretiated.

 

[Jaydee]

Who would have believed when I started this thread just a few weeks ago we would be at £3.03 (after hours trading). I thought anything below £4 was a bargain !!

The last time it was at this price was May 2003, where it NEVER stopped going up until February 2007 where it hit £6.27. Since then it never stopped going down until now !

The only other time it was £3 a share (over past 30 years) was in 1996. The difference in this case was that the price was going up due to the LLoyds and TSB merger.

Someone PLEASE talk me out of buying at £3 a share as I'm about to put my home on it !!! Constructive objections would be well appretiated.

Hi Winmoney

I just saw your topic and wanted to put my point across:

Lloyds closed today just over £3 as you know - this was just after the closing auction around 16:35. However, all the markets trading US and Eurex Index Futures continued to plunge after the London close. The DOW was down over 350!

For this reason, LLOY is likely to open below £3 tomorrow. Whether it bounces or not remains to be seen. However, we are in a seriously declining market - what with house price falls, inflation, interest rates going up, food and fuel price increases and still the reminants of the credit crunch in the background; things are likely to get worse.

Therefore, by all means put a trade on if you really, really think it's a good buy price - but have a sensible stop and size up carefully just in case what I say is correct. You certainly don't want to lose your house or the shirt off your back.

In short, be careful. Trying to buy the bottom is a dangerous game.

Good luck

JD

 

[tommac]

My "spies" in the city tell me that the big boys are getting ready to pile into the banks--hope he`s right. ( i`m long @ 440)

 

[doberman]

Hi how do I S/B lloy

 

[si1503]

My "spies" in the city tell me that the big boys are getting ready to pile into the banks--hope he`s right. ( i`m long @ 440)

I went into lloyds tsb a couple of weeks back just shy of 330, this is around the time more crap news was coming out yet not a lot of price movement. It seems as if banking stocks are so unpopular right now which is one of the reasons I decided to buy. The fact the price has now fallen to the 300 mark is a bit of a suprise to me, but at the same time when the big boys do come into financials prices will move fast I would have thought, seems like everyone and their Grandmother is waiting for the party to start, and when it does who will be selling?

For me LTSB are the best positioned of the UK banks, as someone else already mentioned, they emerged relatively unscaved from the credit problems (in relation to the other UK banks) but yet their share price has fallen hard in line with the sector. Their fundamentals are very sound.

It is very interesting Goldman Sachs coming out with that statement that they had fnancials wrong and it all looks gloomy still... I personally feel they are just priming their entry here. Just watch..

 

[foredog]

Don't rush to buy it, from the sounds of it you look to be trying to get in for the long term and aiming for more than a few pence turn so if you miss the bottom by 10p then you've still got the chance of a good profit in the trade.

Wait for a sign that the markets turned....or if you have to buy some then dribble your money into over the next few weeks

 

[winmoney]

£2.99

Looks like it hit £2.99 this morning and bounce nicely to aqround £3.05. I had a small limit order at £3. Considering cashing in, as it does seem it will at least test this level again, if not fall through it.

The other side of the coin is that I do intend to be in it for the long run, so maybe it's worth holding on to a small position, and adding to that if it goes down - But then as everyone knows, if it falls too far and you're leveraged too much ...... it's goodbye trading account !