Live & Die by the sword....

[neil]

Just a nibble then....

Can you not be empted back to Forex trading FC.
(See 5 minute chart with support line a couple of posts back)

Go on FC. You know Forex is good for you :cheesy:

 

[FetteredChinos]

lol i do still trade FX actually, but on longer timescales.. ie hourly/4 hourly..

have been looking at BB's on 5 min charts though.. could be promising..still too early to tell though..

 

[FetteredChinos]

and another short loaded up at 5048



longs: 0
shorts 12@ 4980

closed profit: +163
open profit : (816) (humph)

right well, thats 12 days now without an exit on the short side.. getting close to a maximum trading size now... highest in my testing was 15.

4980 is my exit for this. Dow looking like a 5 week though, and that implies a dip into early wednesday..

roll on summer and a retrace...

 

[kriesau]

and another short loaded up at 5048



longs: 0
shorts 12@ 4980

closed profit: +163
open profit : (816) (humph)

right well, thats 12 days now without an exit on the short side.. getting close to a maximum trading size now... highest in my testing was 15.

4980 is my exit for this. Dow looking like a 5 week though, and that implies a dip into early wednesday..

roll on summer and a retrace...

You're a brave man FC !

It's going to take around a 140pt drop in the Dow to move the FTSE down to 4980 and clear your shorts. Lets hope that it moves in that direction pretty soon !

 

[FetteredChinos]

fortune favours the brave...

140pts on the Dow in 2 days is eff-all anyway lol...

barely 2 days movement..

still, not all hope is lost...

 

[kriesau]

fortune favours the brave...

Sometimes !

140pts on the Dow in 2 days is eff-all anyway lol...

barely 2 days movement..

still, not all hope is lost...

No, it still endures !

[/QUOTE

I'm looking to go short on the Dow but want to see it back below 10500 first.

 

[FetteredChinos]

ah yes, my bad.. must have a word with me elocution tutor


still looking toppy atm though.. indecision day thus far...

 

[kriesau]

That can't be right, surely?

I mean "sweet eff-all" is the true technical term, is it not?

:cheesy:

With twelve shorts at an average price of 4980, and the FTSE currently at 5047, I think the technical term is 'Holy S#?t Batman' !

FC deserves to see this turn around in his favour but it is getting to the point that it will be the Dow that will resolve this, one way or the other, by the end of this month. If it breaks down through 10400 shortly then he is home and dry BUT if it decides to visit 10800 first then FC could be stretched well beyond a 1000pt deficit. If he is patient this will still clear in due course but it would be a pain to have to sit and wait for it to happen.

 

[FetteredChinos]

i agree Kris.. remember, at the moment, the situation is nothing that i cannot cope with..

still within the realms of anticipated drawdown.

did some cycle checking last night..

have a minor cycle low occuring on the 18th June this month, and a huge major low due on the 21st december this year..

i think its gonna be down til then according to my analysis.

FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

and further to that, the dow is due a low on the 22nd June and then a larger low on the 2nd December.


these dates are give or take a few days either side, etc..

but lets see what happens..

fc

 

[Tuffty]

"still within the realms of anticipated drawdown"

Fettered, what analysis do you do to decide if it is in the realms of anticipated drawdown if you don't mind me asking.

 

[FetteredChinos]

erm backtesting?

if you dont know what drawdown is likely, then your position sizing is likely to be incorrect = wipeout at some point.

if you dont know your risk, then how can you ascertain your position size? if it is simply to make £X per week, then it is a case of the tail wagging the dog, and again likely to ruin...

FC

 

[Tuffty]

Fettered, I was interested in how you go about deriving the draw down from backtesting? Is it a case of looking to see what happenned in the past and taking the worst drawdown and using that as the benchmark?

 

[G-Man]

Fettered, I was interested in how you go about deriving the draw down from backtesting? Is it a case of looking to see what happenned in the past and taking the worst drawdown and using that as the benchmark?

Not sure how FC does it but that is exactly what I do.

I also add in some breathing space just in case a new level of drawdown reveals itself just after you go live with your strategy. I usually use a factor of 1.6.

G-Man

 

[FetteredChinos]

right, sideways day yet again...zzzz

long on june futures (probably will be rolled over at this rate) at 5049



longs: 1@5049
shorts 12@ 4980

closed profit: +163
open profit : (828)

not a lot to add from what has gone before...

these markets are looking ugly IMHO..

interestingly, CS are quoting a year-end FTSE price of nearly 5100.

thats a lot of sideways in between now and then

 

[Windlesham1]

If it's any comfort I have 5054 as a 161.8 retracement and it seems so does the city-they don't wanna break that level. I am waiting to sell puts,having missed selling 5175 calls on friday. I am long a few puts right now so a 200 point drop would buy my old mum a nice new stereo.

 

[kriesau]

I'm looking to do some backtesting on movements in the FTSE. Does anyone know a website where I can find historical charts or can select historical timeframes to recreate a chart (e.g. April 2nd - May 3rd 2004 etc). For example you can do this with individual stock charts on the Hemscott site but not any of the indices.

Any suggestions or links would be appreciated.

 

[FetteredChinos]

you could do it by using excel data, and then using the chart-wizard on that to create bar or candlestick charts from it directly.

doing indicators is a pain, but possible.

other than that, then im afraid im stumped.

fc

 

[Windlesham1]

I use yahoo and metatrader-both free. Metatrader is a small 4meg download,but the new version 4 does not have ftse. you can use the arrow keys to scroll back bar by bar-minute by minute if that is your thing! some data dropouts occur,but that's probably due to mean old ftse feed. I just checked and daily charts go back to april '96-fantastic for free!

 

[Windlesham1]

in anticipation-go to google type in metatrader,and download version 3 point something.