Live & Die by the sword....

[FetteredChinos]

shonk!

stopped out at 1.7695 for -17

tails again, so short from 1.7690 trailing stop as per usual at 1.7730

 

[trendie]

FC,

an idea. whenever the S&R switches, why not make the previous High or Low the point of S&R.
( as long as it exceeds the minimum 40 )
for example, the latest High was at 1.7725, ( virtually a bounce off R-2 ),
would that not have been a better reversal point ? ( introducing TA into it )
or am I thinking too much ?

( PS: I got stopped out at 1.7695 for -31 earlier today. shorted again from 1.7672 )

 

[FetteredChinos]

good points, Paul.

in practice i have found the Jenkins' trailing stop method of the 2nd prior swing high/low is better. ie not the recent high, but the one before that, and ratchet it down all the way.


but im not testing that here, more simple random entry and trailing stop. its all very well showing backtest results etc, but im curious to prove that it will work over an extended (>50) trades...

currently looks promising...

fc

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm, fun and games in Leeds today..

Controlled Explosion at a house.. 500 people evacuated...

 

[barjon]

good points, Paul.

in practice i have found the Jenkins' trailing stop method of the 2nd prior swing high/low is better. ie not the recent high, but the one before that, and ratchet it down all the way.


but im not testing that here, more simple random entry and trailing stop. its all very well showing backtest results etc, but im curious to prove that it will work over an extended (>50) trades...

currently looks promising...

fc

fc

i thought jenkins' trailing stop was a volatility stop - traderpedia beckons you

good trading

jon

 

[FetteredChinos]

erm, ive got his Geometry of Stock Market Profits..


i'll put a bit of the PDF up on here in a bit...

pesky cable, stopped out at 1.7708 for -18...

long from 1.7712 and short on headache tablets...

 

[FetteredChinos]

From the Big Man himself:-


In an uptrend you buy on dips and use as your stop point the second prior swing low. Remember the
main trend determiner is the series of higher bottoms that gives rise to an uptrend. Obviously, when
you break a prior bottom the trend might be changing but often times in the short run you can break
one minor bottom. However, 80% or the time you will not break the second prior swing low
bottom unless it is a significant correction or the trend is starting to turn down.


Therefore, the safest stop is close to the current price level on a dip, but back at the second prior
swing low. After you have your entry point and you have bought your stock or option, you place your
stop at the second prior swing low. It is then okay to allow your profits to run, but as the profits and
the market move up in your favor, you raise you sell stop order to the next higher correction low. So
each time the market has a correction low and advances, you raise your stop up to the next higher
stopout point. This way you can let the main trend run for weeks, months and even years, without being
stopped out of a primary trend.

 

[neil]

FC and the exploding Chino's

hmm, fun and games in Leeds today..

Controlled Explosion at a house.. 500 people evacuated...

FC - stop eating those curried beans :cheesy:

 

[FetteredChinos]

i was tempted to make that gag myself.. but wasnt sure if poor taste was still frowned upon in this place.

and there is nothing controlled about it when im involved

 

[FetteredChinos]

nicking off early to kick a pig's bladder around

closed current long at 1.7736 for +24. will probably retest the 1.7760 level before dropping back.

total of -45 for the day.. booo hiss.

Trades:27
Wins:14
Cum Profit: 126


bit of an awkward day in places though..

 

[FetteredChinos]

nicking off early to kick a pig's bladder around

closed current long at 1.7736 for +24. will probably retest the 1.7760 level before dropping back.

total of -45 for the day.. booo hiss.

Trades:27
Wins:14
Cum Profit: 126


bit of an awkward day in places though..

whoops, sorry about the ****-up last night. got me £ and points mixed up..

yesterday was actually -9 rather than -45, so the correct results are

Trades:27
Wins:14
Cum Profit: 162


just had a tails come up, so short from 1.7716 and stop trailing as per usual.

fc

 

[trendie]

placed an order for Jenkins book, "Geometry of Stock Market Profits" at 14:30 yesterday.
arrived this morning, at 08:10.

 

[danfreek]

who did you buy that from trendie? That's what I call service!

 

[FetteredChinos]

its a great book guys...

the first half of it is based on cycles, understandably, and with a bit of work you can pick likely areas for a major cycle turn.. but where it is a great book, is the actual technical business of trading. it covers a lot more, and in more detail than some of the wishy-washy stuff out there..

250 pages of fun though

 

[trendie]

http://books.global-investor.com/pages/home.htm

I have used them many times before. they are VERY good.

 

[FetteredChinos]

stop moved to 1.7698 to lock in +18

its a good start to the day so far..

im still puzzled how a trend following system still has a win rate of 50%. its really quite odd how things are panning out thus far...

 

[danfreek]

I was thinking that the random method works especially well when you keep getting alternate signals. This would make sense, as you say it is essentially a trend following system, what the random entry allows you to do is avoid deciding on the direction of the trend, when you get stopped out, you know you went the wrong way and you enter the other way and hopefully catch the trend.

Maybe a system using alternate signals, i.e. going long then short then long etc may work quite well. Obviously a range bound market would kill that system pretty quickly. Just an idea though.

 

[FetteredChinos]

stop moved to 1.7671 to lock in +45..

 

[FetteredChinos]

well that took a while...zzzz

stopped out at 1.7669 for +47.

nice start to the day.

tails again so short from 1.7663, stop trailing...

 

[FetteredChinos]

stop moved to 1.7663. b/e