Let's cut the BS, no-one here has a magic system

[wirraltraders]

Wirral, you're a nice chap but you really don't know what you're talking about.. sorry.

FX trades $4 trillion a day, spot, outright forwards, futures, all added up.

A few years back, futures accounted for 5% of this. Now, due to worries about counterparty and funding risks, FX futures are much more liquid and account for about 10% of the market. (I trade both cash and futures in FX)

So are you telling me that this 10% of the market is the determining factor? Do you think the BOJ traded futures when it intervened? Futures are fine up to 10-20mio but beyond that, it's OTC. The BOJ bought $12 billion last week, to give you an idea.

Have you seen a futures fx screen of say cable? Its virtually identical in everyway to spot. Given that that futures has an order book, do you think maybe some orders were dropped on the futures as well as the spot? ( unless of course you believe that no-one in the bank knew about the spot order - yeh sure..)

If you want to bark with the big dogs, why not have a look at where they are dropping their poops.. Of course you would need an ECN like Currenex or quasi ECN like Tradestation to see them - but then I really don't know what I'm talking about...

 

[barjon]

I'm a bit late into all this but I think there's a bit of apples and pears here.

Reading Gamma's article and watching those old 80's Barclays trading room videos posted by Elite Jets some time ago that were resurrected recently, what do you know - there's not a chart in sight. But then they're not trading as I know it - I'm not buying £30m GBP and off-loading it in minutes to make £25K on the turn.

The trading I know is finding a reason to take a punt and I use charts for that. I know it's just a punt and although I like to think that my analysis gives it good odds, I know as well that that nothing's certain and that what I do once I'm in is what's going to matter most for my bottom line. So, for me, it's the trade/money management that's key not all this argy bargy on how to get in in the first place. My two pennorth anyway.

jon

 

[wirraltraders]

Nope, no and more no...The big players (and I mean big) make the moves and the rules, we ( as the retail punters at the whale 5hit end of the food chain) simply pick over their effluent. They've evacuated their waste product of market metabolism and eat our lunch before we've sat down to pick over the crumbs. Some of these really big players might pay attention to the 200 ma but that's about it. There's a huge amount of players between us and them that use TA and *stuff* but to suggest that we're operating on a level playing field with "the largest Trading Banks in their FX Dept" is risible nonsense...

The only levelling off during recent years is prop shop versus small office/home retail punter...

no no no no , yes, no of course you are always right and I will admit I definitely do not know what I'm doing, or have an opinion and there is absolutely no point in listening to anything I say or do whatsoever, so I apologise for even thinking I had anything to contribute at all..

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

I'm a bit late into all this but I think there's a bit of apples and pears here.

Reading Gamma's article and watching those old 80's Barclays trading room videos posted by Elite Jets some time ago that were resurrected recently, what do you know - there's not a chart in sight. But then they're not trading as I know it - I'm not buying £30m GBP and off-loading it in minutes to make £25K on the turn.

The trading I know is finding a reason to take a punt and I use charts for that. I know it's just a punt and although I like to think that my analysis gives it good odds, I know as well that that nothing's certain and that what I do once I'm in is what's going to matter most for my bottom line. So, for me, it's the trade/money management that's key not all this argy bargy on how to get in in the first place. My two pennorth anyway.

jon

Jon,

Its all a giant jigsaw, so many pieces to put together. To be honest they were not massive positions anyway from Barclays POV. He was simply playing his orders against another willing participant. After that, its the turn of other players to take over. They all play the part.

The problem we have here is that anyone who works, or has worked in an institution do not like to admit that others can see what they are up to.

There are far too many false assumptions flying around.

Personally, I need the big boys to give me the information I need, without it, my edge is very limited.

There are far too many variables involved to be discussed on a forum. Not worth it in the long run.

 

[Splitlink]

I would suggest, Jon, that although your opening ideas may be a punt, your closes are more businesslike inasmuch as you know what you are willing to risk. You can have as many punts as you like, if you are happy in the knowledge that experience has made you correct much of the time. That is the whole bottom line of trading.

I'm trading this morning because I did not permit serious losses in the past. No secrets or Holy Grail about that. Order flow and all the rest work on the same principle, as far as closing is concerned.

 

[bbmac]

The fact that institutional traders have more information available to them is probably not in dispute...as to whether the reatlier can see tru depth of market/order flow is open to some debate...I personally doubt it, but as stated here already, we can see sufficient information to devise a profitable trading edge...wether that be from an interpretation of such Depth of market/Order flow info from whatever info sources available to him or whether that be from a longer term fundamental/global macro approach or indeed Tech analysis.

Continuing the gbvpusd story from an early post, subsequent price action showed the following, and from a repeating technical phenomenon perspective - Price found demand again at the 1hr ascending support trend line at point a, rising to5843 before falling to test the near-term previous 1hr swing hi zone, where resistance beacme support at that point b, the subsequent rise to the 1hr descending trend line at point c seeing supply and a further drop to test that now previous 1hr swing hi/lo zone where this previous resistance/support offered support again at point d seeing that trend line breech to the upside at point e and a 1hr candle close to it's topside...pulling back from point e and finding support at it's topside -point f (resistance becomes supprt again) and a further run up to point g...which is a previous near-term fractal swing hi zone on 4hr....where the sellers again came in.

All these are repeating technical phenomena and are just one example to illustrate that regardless of the debate about retail -vs- institutional we as retailers have enough tools at our disposable to make a consistent buck.

G/L

 

[oildaytrader]

I'm a bit late into all this but I think there's a bit of apples and pears here.

Reading Gamma's article and watching those old 80's Barclays trading room videos posted by Elite Jets some time ago that were resurrected recently, what do you know - there's not a chart in sight. But then they're not trading as I know it - I'm not buying £30m GBP and off-loading it in minutes to make £25K on the turn.

The trading I know is finding a reason to take a punt and I use charts for that. I know it's just a punt and although I like to think that my analysis gives it good odds, I know as well that that nothing's certain and that what I do once I'm in is what's going to matter most for my bottom line. So, for me, it's the trade/money management that's key not all this argy bargy on how to get in in the first place. My two pennorth anyway.

jon

In the interview he was looking at charts to see if there was any trend .

 

[meanreversion]

no no no no , yes, no of course you are always right and I will admit I definitely do not know what I'm doing, or have an opinion and there is absolutely no point in listening to anything I say or do whatsoever, so I apologise for even thinking I had anything to contribute at all..

You're not doing yourself any favours by responding like a 5 year old either.

You're in a hole here, stop digging. You're arguing your point when it isn't based, well, on anything really.

Do you know why GBP/USD futures trade so closely to cash? Pretty much every retail bank in the world has traders and computers arbing cash against Globex, and hedging the corresponding interest rate exposure with their forwards desk. At this point, you have no idea what I am talking about.

You originally claimed that all OTC trades get reported - this is completely and utterly incorrect. One of the MAIN attractions of the OTC market is that no-one knows what you are doing. But you didn't know this either.

You seem to think you can divine the future direction of cash by looking at orders in futures (which as we know, is only 10% of the overall market). Ok, even if you KNOW there is a large order in FX futures, then what? Where's your stop and take profit? Simply knowing where orders are (which you don't anyway) is not a trading strategy within itself.

Maybe you're a successful trader, Wirral, and if you are then I'm glad. But if you believe any of what you have typed recently, your success is DESPITE your "knowledge" rather than because of it. Please don't attempt to impose your mis-information on other people.

 

[meanreversion]

Apologies, I think I'm mixing up wallstreetwarrior with wirral there, so that last post is to the both of you..

 

[wackypete2]

If you want to bark with the big dogs, why not have a look at where they are dropping their poops.. Of course you would need an ECN like Currenex or quasi ECN like Tradestation to see them - but then I really don't know what I'm talking about...

The problem here is a few members are engaging with several traders on this thread who have traded on an order desk in some capacity, whether it's futures, forex, equities, or whatever. They have not only barked with the big dogs, they WERE or ARE STILL the big dogs. The theme on this entire forum seems to be people with short or non-existent trading careers speak as if they know everything when, GENERALLY, they don't know enough to argue intelligently.

Sorry if it sounds like I'm ranting...because I am

Peter

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Meanreversion, if OTC is not reported how do come to the % figures you claim?

You have no idea how it all works together.

I am not getting into an argument about it.

I can call now as to what the big boys hold and there for where the markets need to go, in advance, but you wouldnt believe that either.

The only thing I agree with you is the fact that super duper systems dont exist.

But you are a million miles away from understanding what is truly possible, I guarantee you of this.

bbmac has posted some very good work, but this can all be seen with a pure chart, and the aftermath that will follow.

I must be passionate about this as I dont normally raise my heart rate above 55 :cheesy:

Again all experienced traders will know where im coming from.

Sometimes you give the impression of someone who has been kicked out of a prop shop and has no idea what to do now, because you have lost your little edge.

Now you know my edge, what is yours?

Afterall this was the 1st question I asked, and yet, still no one has answered, weird.

 

[wirraltraders]

You're not doing yourself any favours by responding like a 5 year old either.

You're in a hole here, stop digging. You're arguing your point when it isn't based, well, on anything really.

Do you know why GBP/USD futures trade so closely to cash? Pretty much every retail bank in the world has traders and computers arbing cash against Globex, and hedging the corresponding interest rate exposure with their forwards desk. At this point, you have no idea what I am talking about.

You originally claimed that all OTC trades get reported - this is completely and utterly incorrect. One of the MAIN attractions of the OTC market is that no-one knows what you are doing. But you didn't know this either.

You seem to think you can divine the future direction of cash by looking at orders in futures (which as we know, is only 10% of the overall market). Ok, even if you KNOW there is a large order in FX futures, then what? Where's your stop and take profit? Simply knowing where orders are (which you don't anyway) is not a trading strategy within itself.

Maybe you're a successful trader, Wirral, and if you are then I'm glad. But if you believe any of what you have typed recently, your success is DESPITE your "knowledge" rather than because of it. Please don't attempt to impose your mis-information on other people.

You are mixing me up with someone else, I have not said on this thread or anywhere else that all FX trades get reported? In fact the only ting I have said on this thread is that it is possible to see the order book for FX Futures and tyhat those charts are remarkably similar to spot. Thats it.

If you can glean all this stuff from just that about me not knowing what I am talking about etc etc and the rest, then fine I don't know what I'm talking about etc knock youself out..

"Methinks he doth protest to much.."

 

[wirraltraders]

You are mixing me up with someone else, I have not said on this thread or anywhere else that all FX trades get reported? In fact the only thing I have said on this thread is that it is possible to see the order book for FX Futures and that those charts are remarkably similar to spot. Thats it.

If you can glean all this stuff from just that about me not knowing what I am talking about etc etc and the rest, then fine I don't know what I'm talking about etc knock youself out..

"Methinks he doth protest to much.."

Im amazed at your Superiority Complex in that you actually believe that I am not aware that spot FX is OTC .. incredible arrogance

 

[Splitlink]

I must be passionate about this as I dont normally raise my heart rate above 55 :cheesy:

QUOTE]

Why are you so passionate about it? If you can do it that way, go ahead and do it instead of telling everyone else that we are all wrong.

Remember, we all think that our system of trading is the best and can't understand why the rest cannot see it.

Go ahead and be happy in the knowledge that we are never likely to learn.

For Heaven's sake, let's chat about something else.

 

[wirraltraders]

The problem here is a few members are engaging with several traders on this thread who have traded on an order desk in some capacity, whether it's futures, forex, equities, or whatever. They have not only barked with the big dogs, they WERE or ARE STILL the big dogs. The theme on this entire forum seems to be people with short or non-existent trading careers speak as if they know everything when, GENERALLY, they don't know enough to argue intelligently.

Sorry if it sounds like I'm ranting...because I am

Peter

HI Peter as it happens I don't trade using a Forex Futures order book on the Spot Forex market. It was just a passing thought to pass the time of day.. I have a colleague who trades the Dow using Order Book, but that's about it. Whenever I say anything at all on here or any thread other than my own, I'm always amazed at how many people immeditately jump on it. No thats not true actually its the same 2 or three people every time. The other 350k members stay mysteriously silent..

 

[Hilarymannah]

wallstreetwarrior,.. you're banging your head against a brick wall trying to enlighten these fools,.. deep down, they want to struggle,... they just don't know it !!
I tried imparting some wisdom, and got a barrage of the same.
There were only two folk, who actually pm'd me, so I took the time to explain what I do,.the rest just carried on bickering,..nowt stranger than folk ("nowt" is a northern term meaning nothing),.. onwards and upwards,..hmm or downwards,..; )

 

[meanreversion]

Meanreversion, if OTC is not reported how do come to the % figures you claim?

The BIS (that's Bank of International Settlements) release a report every three years into the FX market

http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx10.htm

Or you could try Wikipedia

"FX futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20)." (this is out of date now, the CME website has more recent figures)

But you are a million miles away from understanding what is truly possible, I guarantee you of this.

Really. I have vastly more experience than you, yet am a million miles away from your zone of enlightenment?

Sometimes you give the impression of someone who has been kicked out of a prop shop and has no idea what to do now, because you have lost your little edge.

Nope, I never worked at a prop shop, I was a market maker for twelve years and now trade my own money. I've been on both sides, unlike you.

Now you know my edge, what is yours?

Knowing that people like you exist. There's a reason why companies like IG have a market cap of £1.7 billion.

 

[wirraltraders]

good buy on cable right now...

 

[bbmac]

good buy on cable right now...

Nice 1min, supported by 5min repeating set-up at my end at those reported bids around the 61.8% of the 5718-5921 (current daily Hi @ Dly R2 pivot) The double pattern of momentum oscillator divergence from price telling us that sellers may be exhausted after precipitous 130pip drop off said 5921 Hi, the last 2 legs down on this t/f see-ing less momentum hence the divergence in the oscillators, thus if buyers were to emerge they could overwhelm the exhausted sellers howsoever temporary-this is what resulted...supported by an oversold 5min set-up with extreme oscillator readings etc...

G/L

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

wallstreetwarrior,.. you're banging your head against a brick wall trying to enlighten these fools,.. deep down, they want to struggle,... they just don't know it !!
I tried imparting some wisdom, and got a barrage of the same.
There were only two folk, who actually pm'd me, so I took the time to explain what I do,.the rest just carried on bickering,..nowt stranger than folk ("nowt" is a northern term meaning nothing),.. onwards and upwards,..hmm or downwards,..; )

Well H,

Im done now, enough is enough

noticed how no one comments on the chart and how it played out, and once the stops got taken the market rolls over, and this despite the news!

No one could have forecasted that eh? Strange, well i have learnt now that it isnt.:-0

Still no one has defined their edge!

Indeed, onwards and upwards.

To infinity and beyond. (Buzz Lightyear 1995)