Let your profits run?

[new_trader]

I am not asking anyone to show. I am asking those who make such claims to back it up. As you don't claim to be able to do it currently, I see no reason for you back up what you don't claim.

The market opens in 12 hours. All those who claim to have explosive trades should make a call. Then we'll see how much of an explosion we get.

You still don’t get it Joe and I don’t think you ever will. There are limitless claims being made about STOPS that range from trading without any stops and go right up to trading with impossibly tight STOPS. At some point you have to make the leap of faith and find out for yourself which route you will follow and as with most endeavours in life, the difference between success and failure (apart from ability and aptitude) is perseverance. The reason you want me to prove I trade with tight STOPS is because you lack the courage to try and prove it to yourself, which is understandable. Having 10...20...30+ losers in a row is enough to make most people give up and try something new. If you don’t believe me or that it can be done, don’t try it.

Personally, I find it strange that so called profitable and experienced traders advise others to do what newbies already want to do naturally...How many Professionals in other fields would advise you to do exactly what comes naturally to the new and inexperienced...

 

[15 min tlb]

You still don’t get it Joe and I don’t think you ever will. There are limitless claims being made about STOPS that range from trading without any stops and go right up to trading with impossibly tight STOPS. At some point you have to make the leap of faith and find out for yourself which route you will follow and as with most endeavours in life, the difference between success and failure (apart from ability and aptitude) is perseverance. The reason you want me to prove I trade with tight STOPS is because you lack the courage to try and prove it to yourself, which is understandable. Having 10...20...30+ losers in a row is enough to make most people give up and try something new. If you don’t believe me or that it can be done, don’t try it.

Personally, I find it strange that so called profitable and experienced traders advise others to do what newbies already want to do naturally...How many Professionals in other fields would advise you to do exactly what comes naturally to the new and inexperienced...

10 , 20 , 30 losers in a row

Even Joe has less , and is emotionally and psychologically balanced to pull the triggers.

 

[new_trader]

10 , 20 , 30 losers in a row

Even Joe has less , and is emotionally and psychologically balanced to pull the triggers.

You misunderstood. If someone is trying a NEW methodology they will probably give up by the time they have had 20+ losers in a row and move on to whatever the latest 'guru' is peddling. I read it in this forum all the time...someone bitterly complaining they aren't profitable after trying something for 3 months and want to find a new method...system...etc

 

[the hare]

Personally, I find it strange that so called profitable and experienced traders advise others to do what newbies already want to do naturally...How many Professionals in other fields would advise you to do exactly what comes naturally to the new and inexperienced...

If you take a bunch of completely random systems, and trade them for a couple of years you'll get a distribution in profits and losses, with an average return of 0 minus transaction costs.

If you retrospectively look at the non profitable systems, and ask what the optimum stop size should have been, you'll generally find that a tight stop would have improved the performance of those systems. These systems where non profitable because they had a lot of losses, so limiting those losses makes perfect sense.

However, if you retrospectively look at the profitable systems, and determine an optimum stop size, you'll find that tight stops are detrimental because they eliminate many of the winning trades (winning trades that where achieved by random chance rather than skill)

In my experience, most professionals are pretty clueless, and they are operating in an environment that is similar to complete random chance. If they are profitable, and they analyse their trades, they find that wider stops are actually beneficial, and tight stops are detrimental. The same argument applies to profitable amateur traders, their statistics will indicate the same thing. It's a classic case of being fooled by randomness. The majority of profitable traders fall into these categories, and in an attempt to help others, they mislead possibly with the best of intentions.

Of course, with our random traders, over the longer term mean reversion will occur and those profitable traders, will encounter a rate of losses that are above average, but with larger stops. The non profitable traders will encounter an above average win rate but with tighter stops, and of course, those using tight stops will do better than those with wider stops.

Ironically, the situation inverts once you start trading with a genuine edge.

Mr Socco is 100% correct, tight stops are the way to go.

 

[barjon]

I imagine they look at a chart for confirmation and entry on momentum , that their fundamental analysis are correct and it agrees with the market.There was a fundamental trader who was long gold at 435 , bailed out at 375 and lost out .He was not looking at charts.It is important for fundamental anylysis and entries to be in synch with the market , and this done with charts.

mmm, most look like this

 

[timsk]

mmm, most look like this

I can explain that Jon. The trader saw the photographer coming and minimised all his chart windows just moments before the picture was taken! Hence the myth that pros don't use charts gets perpetuated . . .

 

[robster970]

Tight stops are used by efficient & proficient traders and ought to be used by newbies as well.

This.....

Mr Socco is 100% correct, tight stops are the way to go.

and this...

Your stop size is a function of your market understanding. If you know what is going on, you don't need a large stop. On ES, 2 pts is ample and really if you are hitting >5 ticks offside you should really be thinking about bailing before the stop gets hit.

 

[15 min tlb]

This.....



and this...

Your stop size is a function of your market understanding. If you know what is going on, you don't need a large stop. On ES, 2 pts is ample and really if you are hitting >5 ticks offside you should really be thinking about bailing before the stop gets hit.

So how do you cope with short term fake moves , that take out your tight stop and move in your intended direction?

 

[robster970]

So how do you cope with short term fake moves , that take out your tight stop and move in your intended direction?

For this kind of scenario I have normally moved the stop to BE or into profit. If it comes back and hits the stop but I have conviction in the original trade then I will gdt back in. All it has done is cost me commissions.

 

[Shakone]

mmm, most look like this

What's on the left screen? Looks like a market profile chart, but hard to see. I also think the muppet in the police costume is a key ingredient of success.

 

[Shakone]

So how do you cope with short term fake moves , that take out your tight stop and move in your intended direction?

If that happens then you got the entry wrong, the timing and the price were wrong. Since you were wrong about the entry, you can either take a small loss with a tight stop, or gamble and hope with a larger stop.

 

[15 min tlb]

What's on the left screen? Looks like a market profile chart, but hard to see. I also think the muppet in the police costume is a key ingredient of success.

We only see what we are looking for.

 

[Shakone]

We only see what we are looking for.

So true, lol! I did come to this thread looking for a muppet in a police uniform.

 

[robster970]

We only see what we are looking for.

Rhetoric is not a useful risk mgmt strategy. Tight stops and accepting you were wrong are.

 

[15 min tlb]

Rhetoric is not a useful risk mgmt strategy. Tight stops and accepting you were wrong are.

In trying to run profits , I often get caught holding out when the market changes direction suddenly or tick by tick tricks you for a continuation.

Any suggestions opinions would be most welcome.

 

[robster970]

In trying to run profits , I often get caught holding out when the market changes direction suddenly or tick by tick tricks you for a continuation.

Any suggestions opinions would be most welcome.

What TF are you trading on 15?

e2a - I ask because the situation you describes happens on higher TF's rather than lower ones. Normally if a short term move is over on the 3mins, you can generally see it. If you've used the 3min to time an entry off say the 30m/60m then the possibility of a re-test is always on the cards.

Hence me asking......are you getting caught out on re-tests if your initial entry was good and tight?

 

[15 min tlb]

What TF are you trading on 15?

e2a - I ask because the situation you describes happens on higher TF's rather than lower ones. Normally if a short term move is over on the 3mins, you can generally see it. If you've used the 3min to time an entry off say the 30m/60m then the possibility of a re-test is always on the cards.

Hence me asking......are you getting caught out on re-tests if your initial entry was good and tight?

I trade 15 mins plus tick charts , it is the re-entries and the greed for a second and third runs which catches me out.The first entry is usually good .Sometimes on a good day I pick 3 to 4 re-runs on a channel.

For the first run and retest , I don't move stops until it is in my favor.It is looking for trend retracements and continuation where problem can arise.

 

[robster970]

I trade 15 mins plus tick charts , it is the re-entries and the greed for a second and third runs which catches me out.The first entry is usually good .Sometimes on a good day I pick 3 to 4 re-runs on a channel.

For the first run and retest , I don't move stops until it is in my favor.It is looking for trend retracements and continuation where problem can arise.

So if you're trading off the 15m, do you look at the 1h/4h to give you context?

For example if you can see it has turned on S/R off the hourly and you know you've got in with the trend, surely just trailing below the lows until it fails to make a higher high and then bail?

Or have a missed some nuance here 15?

Are you a bit uptight when trailing? Do you need to loosen up a bit?

I read some good advice on here a long while ago and I forget who posted it but it wen along the lines of:

"The timeframe you are looking at is not necessarily the timeframe you are trading".

I wonder if you've got a bit of this going on dude?

Anyway, just some thoughts, hopefully some of it may be useful.

 

[15 min tlb]

So if you're trading off the 15m, do you look at the 1h/4h to give you context?

For example if you can see it has turned on S/R off the hourly and you know you've got in with the trend, surely just trailing below the lows until it fails to make a higher high and then bail?

Or have a missed some nuance here 15?

Are you a bit uptight when trailing? Do you need to loosen up a bit?

I read some good advice on here a long while ago and I forget who posted it but it wen along the lines of:

"The timeframe you are looking at is not necessarily the timeframe you are trading".

I wonder if you've got a bit of this going on dude?

Anyway, just some thoughts, hopefully some of it may be useful.

Trailing stop is loose enough , it gets hit and I am out of the orignal position.I look at support and resistance in a trend , if it does not break , I will re-enter bottom of consolidation at support after confirmation 15 min bar , even though mas may be down in uptrend , they are lagging and often have no use.So here I am re-entering on support and instincts.But may be all these re- entries need to examined as fresh new entries on all time frames , that could solve the problem.

I look at current context by reading charts and often 4 hourly , but rarely hourly .

Do you re-enter and how do asses re-entries?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

mmm, most look like this

Looks like a bunch of commission based brokers with calculators at the ready for a quick percentage on the customers's order. They don't take no risks and don't need charts. They win whichever way it goes. This is what makes a real professional.