Learning to swing trade the hard way

[rogers]

The aim of this thread is to share with each other the lessons learned during swing trading. I would like to invite you all to share comments or participate in this threat whenever you feel the need for it.

 

[Grey1]

The aim of this threat is to share with each other the lessons learned during swing trading. I would like to invite you all to share comments or participate in this threat whenever you feel the need for it.

you go first mate as you are doing really well at the moment lol

Grey1

 

[rogers]

Why swing trading?

After some poor attempts trying to trade intraday I decided to change over to swing trading the way Grey1 has explained to us many times over and over again.
At this early stage in my trading life I do not have the patience to wait and wait and wait for a good opportunity to enter when I trade intraday.
But impatience is still around the corner when I try to swing trade as we will see shortly.
So after some quick losses intraday trading I decided I wanted to open a long portfolio for swing trading end of april.
By that time market was already heading north.

 

[Grey1]

you go first mate as you are doing really well at the moment lol

Grey1

I will give the name of few stocks( 5 stocks ) for swing trading in my seminar where traders only have to G) LONG and leave them for few weeks to make $$. These stocks are simply money in your pocket based on FA ,,,



Grey1

 

[Grey1]

After some poor attempts trying to trade intraday I decided to change over to swing trading the way Grey1 has explained to us many times over and over again.
At this early stage in my trading life I do not have the patience to wait and wait and wait for a good opportunity to enter when I trade intraday.
But impatience is still around the corner when I try to swing trade as we will see shortly.
So after some quick losses intraday trading I decided I wanted to open a long portfolio for swing trading end of april.
By that time market was already heading north.

Even though you got in 2 weeks late but still the portfolio is doing really well,.

The good news is after you got into the market the market was way up and there was always the danger of major correction but because your stocks were stronger than the market you still out performed the market and the return on your investment speaks for itself.

As you know I am also watching 2 more portfolios which are doing really well and the target should be met by around JULY,

Keep up the good work and up date us of your performance GOOD BAD AND UGLY ,, ( you don't have to mention any FIGURES AND NUMBERS as i know this is private )


grey1

 

[rogers]

Opening the long portfolio-part 1

So here we were end of april with macci(D1) getting OB.
The worst moment to open a long portfolio.
I decided not to enter but to wait for macci(D1) to get OS.
But that did not happen the next couple of days and I felt everybody else who had taken long positions earlier was making lots of money while I was sitting at the side line.
Grey1 explained to me that market was so strong fundamentally at that moment that I could wait forever for a technical entry.
While I was waiting for a technical entry market was running away from me.

One could say that one should always take the fundamental signal over the technical one.

Question
How do we know market is fundamental and not technical the moment we are trading?

I invite you all to comment since I do not have the experience or answers!

 

[belflan]

So here we were end of april with macci(D1) getting OB.
The worst moment to open a long portfolio.
I decided not to enter but to wait for macci(D1) to get OS.
But that did not happen the next couple of days and I felt everybody else who had taken long positions earlier was making lots of money while I was sitting at the side line.
Grey1 explained to me that market was so strong fundamentally at that moment that I could wait forever for a technical entry.
While I was waiting for a technical entry market was running away from me.

Lesson1
One could say that one should should always take the fundamental signal over the technical one.

Question
How do we know market is fundamental and not technical at the moment?

I invite you all to comment since I do not have the experience or answers!

would this not have being ok for a tech entry to a fundamentally strong market

belflan

 

[rogers]

would this not have being ok for a tech entry to a fundamentally strong market

belflan

Belflan you are correct.
This would have been the better (technical) entry.
Grey1 has said many times to us to better wait for pull backs like these and buy then when everybody else is selling.
And as a matter of fact he did so at the time I opened my portfolio.
But if I wanted to get in I should scale into some stocks with 1/2 pos. size to minimize risk when market was selling off intraday.
Which is what I did since I thought it was worth the risk because market was so strong.
It took the market another week to get into the pullback which would have been the less riskier entry.
However the best entry would have been in March.

 

[belflan]

Belflan you are correct.
This would have been the better (technical) entry.
Grey1 has said many times to us to better wait for pull backs like these and buy then when everybody else is selling.
And as a matter of fact he did so at the time I opened my portfolio.
But if I wanted to get in I should scale into some stocks with 1/2 pos. size to minimize risk when market was selling off intraday.
Which is what I did since I thought it was worth the risk because market was so strong.
It took the market another week to get into the pullback which would have been the less riskier entry.
However the best entry would have been in March.

Patience is difficult at the beginning, as I have proved by jumping in many times intra day and swing trading to my cost

I guess the patience will come (like many things) with experience; I’m here for the long hall. Lets see how we go

Good trading
belflan

 

[Glenn]

So here we were end of april with macci(D1) getting OB.
The worst moment to open a long portfolio.
I decided not to enter but to wait for macci(D1) to get OS.
But that did not happen the next couple of days and I felt everybody else who had taken long positions earlier was making lots of money while I was sitting at the side line.
Grey1 explained to me that market was so strong fundamentally at that moment that I could wait forever for a technical entry.
While I was waiting for a technical entry market was running away from me.

Lesson1
One could say that one should always take the fundamental signal over the technical one.

Question
How do we know market is fundamental and not technical the moment we are trading?

I invite you all to comment since I do not have the experience or answers!

Rogers
When the market is 'running away from you' and not technical, there are still ways to minimise risk and enter.
This post on 27th April suggested stepping down to the 60 min cycle to look for entries. Lookng back at every 60min cycle upturn since then, an entry at any of them would mean that you would now be in profit in the sense that INDU is higher.

www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-...edium-term-grey-s-analysis-11.html#post425343

Glenn

 

[rogers]

Rogers
When the market is 'running away from you' and not technical, there are still ways to minimise risk and enter.
This post on 27th April suggested stepping down to the 60 min cycle to look for entries. Lookng back at every 60min cycle upturn since then, an entry at any of them would mean that you would now be in profit in the sense that INDU is higher.

www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-...edium-term-grey-s-analysis-11.html#post425343

Glenn

Glenn,

Thanks for the link this is very usefull information.
It tells us how to recognize and enter in a fundamentally strong market.
Recognizing the market is not technical but fundamentally strong is for me still the hard part.

Rogers

 

[Glenn]

Glenn,

Thanks for the link this is very usefull information.
It tells us how to recognize and enter in a fundamentally strong market.
Recognizing the market is not technical but fundamentally strong is for me still the hard part.

Rogers

Rogers
I don't know how Grey1 defines non-tech in terms of the Macci, but here's what I observe.
Basically when it is not technical, a Macci Cycle behaves strangely rather than printing nice up and down 'sine' waves.
However Macci can be non-tech in one timeframe and tech in another.
Look at what the Daily MACCO and INDU did after that post I mentioned (23rd to 29th April).
The Daily Macci stayed high at around 75-80 (non-tech).
The INDU also stayed high and then rose further, so instead of a reversal you got an inverse.
OK nothing goes up forever and it had to reverse at some point, which turned out to be Daily Macci OB at +107.
Now look at the 60 min Macci over the same period. Looks pretty technical to me.

Does that make sense to you / anyone ?
I'm not here to be right, I'm here to learn, so all views welcome.
Glenn

 

[belflan]

Rogers
I don't know how Grey1 defines non-tech in terms of the Macci, but here's what I observe.
Basically when it is not technical, a Macci Cycle behaves strangely rather than printing nice up and down 'sine' waves.
However Macci can be non-tech in one timeframe and tech in another.
Look at what the Daily MACCO and INDU did after that post I mentioned (23rd to 29th April).
The Daily Macci stayed high at around 75-80 (non-tech).
The INDU also stayed high and then rose further, so instead of a reversal you got an inverse.
OK nothing goes up forever and it had to reverse at some point, which turned out to be Daily Macci OB at +107.
Now look at the 60 min Macci over the same period. Looks pretty technical to me.

Does that make sense to you / anyone ?
I'm not here to be right, I'm here to learn, so all views welcome.
Glenn

Hi Glenn,

i get abit confused about reading the macci's to be honest, as i think i can read into one macci what i wish almost. however I would be interested in the mutli timeframe analysis on the macci's. ie. if the 60min 30min 10min are o/b or o/s at one time what's the chances of a reversal, and on average how big will the reversal be? hmm..can you do this in TS2k or maybe TS8?

belflan

 

[Glenn]

Hi Glenn,

i get abit confused about reading the macci's to be honsite, as i think i can read into one macci what i wish almost. however I would be interested in the mutli timeframe analysis on the macci's. ie. if the 60min 30min 10min are o/b or o/s at one time what's the chances of a reversal, and on average how big will the reversal be? hmm..can you do this in TS2k or maybe TS8?

belflan

From observation, when you get several adjacent maccis OB or OS it's usually a sign of a non-tech market.
Look at today from 5 up to 30 mins Macci - a weak market - low chance of reversal.
Oil is up, inflation looms, Home Depot bad news, no more rate cuts for a while. All that on one day will spook some people out. But that's just one day.

Now at 6pm the 60 min macci is OS so the market may reverse up but you would only go long an half-size and be ready to jump out.
As regards how big a reversal will be, we'll all have to club together to buy a crystal ball.
Glenn

 

[rogers]

Hi Glenn,

i get abit confused about reading the macci's to be honest, as i think i can read into one macci what i wish almost. however I would be interested in the mutli timeframe analysis on the macci's. ie. if the 60min 30min 10min are o/b or o/s at one time what's the chances of a reversal, and on average how big will the reversal be? hmm..can you do this in TS2k or maybe TS8?

belflan

Hi Glenn and Belflan,

My guess would be that one has to study the fundamentals of the market. And use the maccis for confirmation and entry. So the fundamentals are telling us market is strong end of april and the macci(D1) behaving strangly (OB) is confirming that this is the case. So studying the fundamentals tells you market is strong while maccis are giving you the edge upon entry and thus risk. The hard part is which fundamentals to study and what are these telling us. Off course I could be wrong.

Rogers

 

[belflan]

From observation, when you get several adjacent maccis OB or OS it's usually a sign of a non-tech market.

hmm, i think i may be looking at the macci's in an incorrect way. i thought if the you got, say, the 60, 30 and 10min maccis all o/b and turning south this would be a possible short entry? and vice versa for longs?

belflan

 

[rogers]

From observation, when you get several adjacent maccis OB or OS it's usually a sign of a non-tech market.
Look at today from 5 up to 30 mins Macci - a weak market - low chance of reversal.
Oil is up, inflation looms, Home Depot bad news, no more rate cuts for a while. All that on one day will spook some people out. But that's just one day.

Now at 6pm the 60 min macci is OS so the market may reverse up but you would only go long an half-size and be ready to jump out.
As regards how big a reversal will be, we'll all have to club together to buy a crystal ball.
Glenn

Glenn,

You were just ahead of me

Rogers