Killer Spike!! -How good was your system/strategy at prempting this ?

[asht2w]

Did you see that?? MASSIVE SPIKE??

GBP/USD 9:40am (GMT)
I'm really curious to know if ANY trading system/traders prempted this massive 70 pip dive??

Ash

 

[FetteredChinos]

well there was 3 peak RSI divergance on the 1 min chart which might have given you an entry beforehand.

generally it is better to wait for the dust to settle after the spike and see where it is headed..

currently still going down, so probably wise to sell any bounces..

 

[asht2w]

well there was 3 peak RSI divergance on the 1 min chart which might have given you an entry beforehand.

generally it is better to wait for the dust to settle after the spike and see where it is headed..

currently still going down, so probably wise to sell any bounces..

Interesting. I'm not seeing any tell-tale RSI peaks on my charts.
(that look any more ominous that any other peaks)
but then again, I never really found RSI indicators that useful myself.
Maybe you can see something I can't. I'd be really surprised any indicator could preempt
such a move with an indicator that didn't look the same for more subtle move.
I guess you could never preempt such a move and the best you can do to
protect yourself against these killers is the trail stop losses like your mortgage
depended on it

 

[FetteredChinos]

exactly...

over time these spikes pretty much go in either direction. you win some, you lose some.

just have to live with it.

i got stopped out for -30 from an earlier long, then banged in a short at 1.8248.

quite happy with things thus far.

 

[alanbeale2001]

ouch

im currently been eaten by euro/usd went long at 1.2196 resistance break and it went short as the ftse rallied. still in there at 50 pips down. !!!!

 

[A Dashing Blade]

Belive it was caused by the BoE minutes being published, these suggested that 2 members voted for a rate cut last month (Sweeden cut yesterday) + Italian retail sales fiugures were very soggy => pressure on ECB to cut rates

Bloomberg Commentary . . .
``It's most likely we will continue in this bullish trend''
n bonds, said Alessandro Tentori, a fixed-income strategist in
ondon at BNP Paribas SA. ``The market will try to corner the ECB
nto a rate cut.''

So . . . bottom line, news related spike, unlikely that any system would have caught it.

 

[gus]

I call them 'freak bars'.
My comments on my log warned of pullback:
Prior bar was a wonder bar sell as seen on the chart.

#35
gus
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Join Date: Mar 2004
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Posts: 84 gus is an unknown quantity at this point

22/06 Trading thoughts:

EUR/USD - close on or near the high - you get a sell off of some degree, before a continuation pattern.

EUR/JPY - UP which is only an educated guess

GBP/USD - same comment as EUR/USD

USD/JPY - an early buy signal, but I don't expect much outa it.


All of my posts are intended only as instructional & for entertainment. Many times I am wrong.

 

[SOCRATES]

I disagree with everything expressed so far. This is because all of this is being viewed back to front.
That spike presented a wonderful opportunity for an unopposed short. But there again if it is not viewed as a shorting opportunity and instead it is viewed as a setback, well, there you have it !

It seems obvious to me, if it does not seem obvious to everyone else.

 

[JonnyT]

What is obvious to me is that you cannot antiscipate a spike, but you can react to it.

JonnyT

 

[SOCRATES]

What is obvious to me is that you cannot antiscipate a spike, but you can react to it.

JonnyT

Exactually ! Very well put, Jonny T.

 

[darktone]

Killer spike!

You should have been around when the NFPR where doing the biz and the buckets where offering no slip stops!!!!!

Next best thing to free money!

 

[asht2w]

I disagree with everything expressed so far. This is because all of this is being viewed back to front.
That spike presented a wonderful opportunity for an unopposed short. But there again if it is not viewed as a shorting opportunity and instead it is viewed as a setback, well, there you have it !

It seems obvious to me, if it does not seem obvious to everyone else.

You're right, it is a great opportunity to go short.
I used the term 'killer' in respect to people who were long at the time, expecting to
ride the trend a little higher.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/images/icons/icon6.gif

Ash.

 

[asht2w]

Correct - which is why imho you should always pay attention to the fundamentals and news, however much in love you are with your preferred technical methods. And all those people still looking purely at 5 min charts probably got battered after the initial move higher.

GJ

Out of interest,..
..does the GBPUSD always make such a drastic move down after a significant rally in the FTSE (as demonstrated today at the same time as the spike) or is that just coincidence?
I've never really compared the two.

Ash.

 

[v01101999]

Out of interest,..
..does the GBPUSD always make such a drastic move down after a significant rally in the FTSE (as demonstrated today at the same time as the spike) or is that just coincidence?
I've never really compared the two.

Ash.

expecation of lower interest rate sends GBP lower against USD as yield differential reduces
but lowe interest rates send FTSE higher in expectation of higher growth.

 

[asht2w]

expecation of lower interest rate sends GBP lower against USD as yield differential reduces
but lowe interest rates send FTSE higher in expectation of higher growth.

Aaaahhh ..makes sense!

Given that, what (if any) is the equivalent announcement in the US
that (if unfavourable) typically weakens the dollar, thus raising the GBP against USD?

 

[TWI]

BP has been a B*tch this week for systems. I hear a lot of systematic funds do not include the GBPUSD cross as it is traditionally a pain in the 'arris. I wish I had followed that lead this year. I have had no higher peak from this cross since Dec04.

 

[thorset]

Unfortunately, no matter how good your TIs' (Technical Indicators)are, there is no way around Newton's Third Law, ("For every action there is a reaction"). The TIs' are all reactors to events and so of course often provide very accurate indications - retrospectively!