Best Thread Keynes Vs. Hayek

[new_trader]

We were talking about policy in response to recessions.

I was commenting on economic policy response and as I see it - you banging your drum about ballooning government debt fiat currencies and how gold will go through the stratosphere!

What do you feel this discussion is about?

I feel this discussion with you is wasting my time. You're welcome to have the last word.

 

[Atilla]

I feel this discussion with you is wasting my time. You're welcome to have the last word.

I feel all roads with you lead to Debt and Fiat Currencies.

Appreciate the feedback. 👍

 

[hatemypips]

We were talking about policy in response to recessions.

I was commenting on economic policy response and as I see it - you banging your drum about ballooning government debt fiat currencies and how gold will go through the stratosphere!

What do you feel this discussion is about?

When considering debt it's useful to consider respective ratios rather than debt separately in absolute terms. For example debt-to-gdp ratio. If it is below 120-130% I guess it should be considered as safe.

 

[Atilla]

When considering debt it's useful to consider respective ratios rather than debt separately in absolute terms. For example debt-to-gdp ratio. If it is below 120-130% I guess it should be considered as safe.

Consider bond yields and interest rates too. How much does it cost to service that debt.

Who is prepared to put up money to finance a bankrupted and corrupt operations.

Many more factors to consider imo. Would you lend money to Afghanistan tomorrow if they issued some treasuries.

 

[new_trader]

Dude... Let time settle the score... We'll see outcome in another couple of years time...

Current policy is good - steady as she goes... All this you don't know this and you don't understand that blah blah blah is utter tosh... You go right ahead and burst a blood vessel... Don't make a mess on the floor... 😎


Simply put with no political BS... or economic mumbo jumbo... Layman terms.

1. Raise Taxes
2. Reduce Spending
3. Mild inflation > interest rates

Pay off debts asap...

Whether anybody likes it or not is of no consequence as this is current government policy and correct one. I may have issues with application and delivery but it is good imho - better learn to deal with it and adapt. Taxes are also yet to bite in full.


Like I said anything else is pissing in the wind...


Time will tell... We'll wait and see. :whistling

👆That was posted Aug 25, 2011 and now just over 10 years later, time is telling that everything I was warning about in this thread is happening...and I am properly prepared 😎

 

[Atilla]

👆That was posted Aug 25, 2011 and now just over 10 years later, time is telling that everything I was warning about in this thread is happening...and I am properly prepared 😎

You are a class act NT.

Did they:

1. Raise Taxes?
2. Reduce Spending?

3. Mild inflation > interest rates - here they've broken their 2% target inflation rule and not acted. Back in post banking crises the fear was depression / prolonged recession similar to Japan.

You are confusing economic policy with politicians wanting to get elected and doing what is necessary to get elected.

You need to let go of your luggage.

I'm very happy you are properly prepared. 👍

 

[new_trader]

Atilla,

I think it is best if we revisit this thread in 3-5 years as there is no point continuing the debate. There is enough information in this thread for people to make up their own minds. I have put my money where my mouth is which means it is largely invested outside of the U.K. I am afraid (confident) that the government will continue to try and tax and inflate its way out of this crisis. You might see nominal gains as a result of all the inflation but that will just create the illusion of wealth as it has always done, but the general U.K population will be worse off than other nations. Like someone else once said, what is the good of having a house worth £10 Million if it costs you £5000 just to fill your refrigerator with food?

Record number of Britons are planning to emigrate to escape cost-of-living crisis with online searches for 'moving abroad' rising by 1,000% last month

Record numbers of Britons are planning to emigrate to the escape cost-of-living crisis which has seen inflation soar to record highs.

People searching Google for 'move abroad' was up by 1,000% last month in the UK, new data shows, with America, Canada and Australia being the most favoured by Brits.

Ok, so it took longer than 5 years, but my Macro-economic strategy based on my correct understanding of economics AND politics is now paying off hugely. If you too want to survive and thrive in this turbulent world, my advice is to study Austrian Economics.

Visit: Mises Institute

 

[Atilla]

Record number of Britons are planning to emigrate to escape cost-of-living crisis with online searches for 'moving abroad' rising by 1,000% last month



Ok, so it took longer than 5 years, but my Macro-economic strategy based on my correct understanding of economics AND politics is now paying off hugely. If you too want to survive and thrive in this turbulent world, my advice is to study Austrian Economics.

Visit: Mises Institute

I agree with part of your statement re: government will try to inflate its way out of debt.

However, you invested in gold around $1600s if I recall, and bearing in mind it dropped to below $1000 at one point and now risen back up to $18s you have wasted your assets over 11 years imo.

Have you compared what you might have achieved if you had invested the same amount in FTSE dividend-paying and growing companies at the same time?

You have squandered 11 years of capital gains and dividend returns. Why don't you go and have a look at BHP and Rio Tinto and check out the share price and dividend payments over the last 11 years? You could still have your finger in the gold pie and have received positive financial gains instead of holding gold sovereigns.


Addenda: I just noticed in bold your.... "but my Macro-economic strategy based on my correct understanding of economics AND politics"

That's really really funny.

 

[new_trader]

However, you invested in gold around $1600s if I recall, and bearing in mind it dropped to below $1000 at one point and now risen back up to $18s you have wasted your assets over 11 years imo.

At one point the gold price was below USD300 but not during the last 12 years. The same goes for USD1000.

 

[Atilla]

Yes you are right I think it bottomed at 1064 ish in Dec 2015.

I think I remembered the 800-900s as the actual cost of getting the stuff out the ground. My bad.

Nevertheless, I would strongly recommend you consider buying mining stocks and compare price rises which mirror the price of commodities and continued dividend payments.

All the best 🙂

 

[Atilla]

Well there you go... Monetary policy is well and truly plucked.

CBs raising rates to counter inflation end up torpedoing Institutions' liquidity ratios because the super-safe Bonds they hold are worth less. What do they do? Sell at a loss or borrow money at high interest rates.

USELESS doesn't say it. Monetary policy hits - let's say an unintended or unforeseen glitch. Some say it's more to do with the speed of rate increases.

Eitherway fundamentals of economics leave only Fiscal Policy to tackle inflation. Good to see corporation tax hike to 25%. I reckon other nations will follow if they have inflationary pressures.

All eyes on the ECB tomorrow.