Just a simple poll: Gold

[nile_croc]

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[_JWG_]

Short term bear.
I think with equities at a major support level we could see a subsequent bounce up over the next few weeks. Therefore I expect to see selling of gold and buying of equities.
However I don't think it will last long. Maybe a few weeks, possibly a month.
But... you never know. Lets see what the charts say.

 

[Rockety]

My idea is that there will be a bit bigger contraction (890-910 per ounce) then it might get pumped to new highs (1080-1100 area) just to get crushed down to 800. Though nice little double topping around the 1k area, looks just to good to be true. One thing is sure, going short above 1k wasnt a bad idea, just like march 08.

 

[nile_croc]

Interesting results so far, although only 12 people responded to date. I am indifferent to bearish on gold, and feel like such a small minority. I posted a negative post on gold in a CBS Marketwatch comment forum and got attacked by the just about everyone, as everybody there was a gold bull. It's nice to see that I'm not necessarily alone out there.

My own personal opinion on gold is that it makes too much sense. Trades that make too much sense will destroy you every time. You would think all the necessary elements for a long-term gold rally are there: governments printing money, record debt levels, geopolitical instability, shortages in the physical market, etc.. The fact of the matter is that everybody else feels the same way and they're in there buying it too. Seems as though there's a "did you get YOUR gold yet?" mentality out there, and that's what scares me away from this trade. It seems like everyone from news anchors to radio talk show hosts are now amateur gold analysts, and we know how the story ends when this environment prevails. It almost kind of reminds me of the good ol' dot-com days, with pets.com and etoys.

I would not go short gold, I just wouldn't buy it here. I say it runs very quickly and violently to 1200, maybe 1500 as every tom, dick, and harry jumps in with what's left of their life's savings..... then the hammer comes down. Ultimately though...who knows?

 

[Rockety]

text

The fundamentals are there since the start of 08 really, that hasnt changed that much (got better more for gold). But today for me it seems the money in the markets are alot less than it was once, so a speculative move from equities to commodities or currencies have much more of a power and room to overmove something to a direction. As you said, ppl are getting so bullish that it will be overplayed, your price targets maybe alot better than mine, but common folk always get in at the end and get out at the end sooo cant wait for that hammer to play :- )

Agree that i wouldnt buy on this level. For me gold had two entry points. One was based upon more upon fundamentals than technicals in november. I copy what did i wrote in my blog that time:

"" 2008. nov. 10

Just read through CFTC COT-s reports lately found something really interesting about gold.
Since 2005 june net short positions never been so low on Comex as today. Short contract numbers fallen 10% percent this week compared to last week, stand up near 722 area proves somewhat truce about this. Sort of a large movement from one side to the other. The big boys think that fear driven dollar buying might be over sooner than later and gold would be an attractive hedge again. Following silver and gold charts in the coming months is an advice i would give becouse this global money pumping / recession: new mines are not opening old ones are closing -> a shortage may evolve. This will indicate one possible route: UP. Things i have mentioned should and will drive up the price in the near term ultimately. As soon as the forced liqudation of hedge and bank positions stop this will start.
So my speculation would be that we will have a new local minimum where a large upward movement shall begin. 650-700ish area seems to be a decent long opportunity. I know it sounds wierds after months of down movement, huge bear rallies... but this is a crazy world so i do a crazy tip: 2009.march.10 gold hits 1000 ounce once again! Now only the market have to realise this ""

Other one was simple technical breakout play @ 765 and trend buying around 850.

Oh before i feel so smart, i didnt play it (was planning to buy march calls on silver for 12 strike, dont really want to speak about it hehe) Things really got over my head in oct-november (losing job, losing money, stopped out of rallies by 1-3 points, so didnt feel like to play what i wrote down, it hurts now, but hey there is a new opportunity everytime, just have to wait.

 

[Ash256]

I'm leaning towards bearish short term, although I think the strongest indicator is on which side the DJIA breaks out of the 7000-7500 range

 

[Calvin]

I don't know, I think there is underlying support. Maybe another push to the $980s, but falling short of $1000...

 

[si1503]

Bullish.

 

[Martinghoul]

It is a consensus trade, but that might mean either that it performs like there's no tomorrow or that it crashes and burns. I am long and small bullish.

 

[_JWG_]

The down move of gold is running out of puff. Equites have closed beyond major support. I'm now Bullish on gold.

 

[elitejets]

Hmmm this is so much easier than "did the plane take off".

A nice push up for a double top and then back to the low 800's or lower.

 

[mnmnmmnnmnmn]

where u guys get gold end of day data, just like those u got from yahoo finance? just asing...