July 04 Cotton

[DaveT]

I think COTTON could still have some upside potential this year -

The market is waiting for news of increased Chinese Import Quotas, and ofcourse the US planting and growing season.

Acreage & planting intentions are due out March 31.

Consensus is that soybeans will have 'bought' acres (due to higher prices), at the expense of cotton acres.

Technically, there is a large falling wedge, formed since the OCT03 high. However the downtrend since then is still intact (confirmed by RSI range)

Obviously , breakout of the wedge is what I'm looking for.

 

[bgold]

DaveT, Fine analysis of Cotton. Thanks
CT's slide today appears to have held above yesterdays' lows (another 20min trading). I suspect there will be a lot of stops just below at 74. And CT K4 @ 69.80 the more liquid contract.

I understand that CT is seasonally quite weak between Mid-March and mid April. Something to do about decreasing demand after the winter surge to meet summer fashion needs(?)

 

[bgold]

markets are cruel!

yesterday, CT held above resistance but todays' USD strength was too much and bears piled in taking bull stops out trading as low 6870. Next all supply disappears and guess what, market shoots up within 20mins to take out all bear stops as high as 7250. Market makers are having a gr8 time picking funds and speculators alike.

Looks like I'll be watching from the sidelines
Bull or bear, watch out!

 

[PeterTT]

Yep agree with Bgold .. not a market I want to be in at the moment. Too whippy with no clear signal (for me anyway!)

peter

 

[bgold]

Oops a limit down day in May Cotton!

While technically it hasn't yet broken through downchannel, it has broken previous low at 6420.
I suspect CT is on way to test the gaps of last september and possible more. But with Cotton you never know.

 

[bgold]

May Cotton - 7 day island reversal

Cotton may be reversing fortunes. Trend still down but island reversal is too appealing not to act on. See how (May Contract) filled the rising window of September but failed to close it (that's bullish) & now the falling window has been closed.
I see PD in RSI and CCI, MACD almost signal, Stochastics improving

Trend followers need more confirmation, like crossing of MA's, bollinger signal).

What do you reckon?