Liffe Sugar (white)

bgold

Established member
532 5
DaveT said:
JULY CSCE SUGAR -

Rising wedge or ascending triangle?

Either way,the objective from the breakout above 725-730 is intinally the same - 830.

Need to see above 730 though.

Sugar tumbled below the previous low of 6.74 on back of fund liquidiation (source sucden). Battle between long term longs and short shorts has begun in earnest and might provide with some more volatile weeks.

Seasonally, May 4th - May 14th is bullish producing on avg about 30cts. Nevermind that this trade has worked 15 out past 15yrs, the 1st day of this trade recommendation did not start well -24cts. Is the seasonal late to start or is cyclical liquidation just too strong?
We'll know before long. For now, I am sidelined (other than a "small" bl..d. jul-mar05 spread which has widened to -66cts and I just cannot make my self to cover - where's the discipline? :eek: )

Dave, when would you assume that the ascending triangle would have failed?
 

DaveT

Well-known member
434 6
bgold said:
Sugar tumbled below the previous low of 6.74 on back of fund liquidiation (source sucden). Battle between long term longs and short shorts has begun in earnest and might provide with some more volatile weeks.

Seasonally, May 4th - May 14th is bullish producing on avg about 30cts. Nevermind that this trade has worked 15 out past 15yrs, the 1st day of this trade recommendation did not start well -24cts. Is the seasonal late to start or is cyclical liquidation just too strong?
We'll know before long. For now, I am sidelined (other than a "small" bl..d. jul-mar05 spread which has widened to -66cts and I just cannot make my self to cover - where's the discipline? :eek: )

Dave, when would you assume that the ascending triangle would have failed?


Bgold -

Stricly speaking, 2 closes below the trendline....Also see the 40-day MA was breached yesterday .

Not good techniclly, however it has not gapped lower on the open today. You need wide stops for this at the moment - especially with SB.

Did you know the new ETHANOL NYBOT contract starts trading tomorrow (friday)? Also it is 'Sugar Week' in New York next week- for what it's worth?
 

DaveT

Well-known member
434 6
July sugar #11 - last trade 680. Pre-settlement.

Looks like it closed on the trendline and back above 40-day MA.

Two-day reversal? Also formed a falling wedge within the ascending triangle.

Incdicators are not bullish, but becoming oversold.
 

Attachments

  • CAGjuly sugar.png
    CAGjuly sugar.png
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Last edited:

bgold

Established member
532 5
Nice tweezer bottom on the daily chart! I read on sucden site that there may even be some trade buying and they mention rumours about Russia. Interestingly, the spreads cam in yesterday. Even the Nov04 - March 05, although still below trend line.

Great new layout but I do not seem to understand how to attach charts. The manage attachments button does not work!!!! :( Can somebody advise?
And, how does one ensure e-mail notification? :confused:
 

DaveT

Well-known member
434 6
Bgold have you checked your settings in My User Options?

Attachments are downloaded as before, but with the option of multiple attachments.
They must be in the stated formats though.
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Thanks for advice but I am afraid still can't figure it out. Which option should one have ticked in User Option section. Basically, I can't find the "browse" function anymore just "manage attachments" which doesn't do anything?????
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Seen the site, but it seems that if you want the news one needs to apply to the SugaronlinePlus (and pay a fee of $275 pa !!)

They were quick to follow up to see if I wanted to sign up for the upgrade!!

Did you sign up?
 

DaveT

Well-known member
434 6
Bgold - re. attatchments.

1) Type your post/reply as usual.
2) Click 'Manage attatchments bleow the post window.
3) Click the first of the 3 Browse buttons
4) Search for your file, double click as usual and ensure the path appears in the field to the left of the BROWSE button.
5) Click UPLOAD and wait for competion.
6) Close the Window when prompted.
7) SAVE CHANGES/POST REPLY etc.
8) Wait for post to be added
9) Check the POST!
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Many thanks for explanation.
Unfortuinately step 2 doesnot seem to work (consistently). When cliking it just doesn't respond. Will have to take up it with Sharky.
Thanks
 

DaveT

Well-known member
434 6
bgold said:
Many thanks for explanation.
Unfortuinately step 2 doesnot seem to work (consistently). When cliking it just doesn't respond. Will have to take up it with Sharky.
Thanks


Try this:

1) COMMUNITY at top of screen
2) Click MY USER OPTION
3) scroLL down to 'THREAD DISPLAY OPTIONS'
4) Ensure 'SHOW IMAGES' is ticked.

Failing that COME ON SHARKY!!
 

RitaSam

Newbie
4 0
Sugar

DaveT said:
SUGAR gets very little coverage here - so i'll kick off with my analysis of WHITE SUGAR (LIFFE).

Fundamentals - (RAW)
------------------

World raw sugar production DOWN
- 03/04 est 146.8 (vs 149.9)

Global consumption UP
- 03/04 est. 143.2 (vs. 139.4)

Supplies hit by expected drop in output in India, Russia, EU, Thailand., due to unfavourable weather.

Lowest Stocks-to-use ratio in 6 years. Small global deficit (270,000 MT) forecast. Chinese demand to follow?

Fundamentals (WHITE)
-----------------------------

Tightening deliverable supply scenario.
Expected demand increase.


TECHNICALS - I'll post 3 charts.
----------------

DAILY CHART -

(MAY04) has shown a steep rise since the new year.
A nice saucer/rounding bottom has formed.
The London market is showing greater strength than CSC (NY).
RSI wedge breakout is at overbought, so could fail - correction due?

Also note the head and sholders bottom in the middle of the saucer. Looks like a good buy after it corrects.
 

Sharky

Admin
5,637 427
The "Manage Attachements" causes a pop-up window to appear - please make sure you don't have a popup killer working on the site, otherwise you won't be able to see it! And it will simply appear to not work. I'll add a note next to it, to remind people about this.
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Sharky said:
The "Manage Attachements" causes a pop-up window to appear - please make sure you don't have a popup killer working on the site, otherwise you won't be able to see it! And it will simply appear to not work. I'll add a note next to it, to remind people about this.

Sharky, thanks for response. It was indeed the "script blocking" function in Norton Firewall which prevented me using the manage attachments function.
Thanks for advice.

I am, however, not sure whether it is a good idea to have "script blocking" disabled? I am advised by both Norton and my IT support that it would be better to have this feature running.
rgds
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Is Sugar rally the real thing?

July sugar shows nice rally but how much is real buying? Spreads have improved a bit (see attached chart) but not enough to convince me that this rally will go to new highs.

I can also count the wave correction to be over at recent bottoms with sugar getting ready for a wave 3 rally to new highs.

The Sugar July/Oct bull spread is seasonally strong between 16 may and 28June on average delivering about 27cts (3 out of 15yrs). Thusfar it rallied just short of 20cts.
If this rally were fundamental I would have expected this spread and others to have tightened before the July contract kicked off. That didnot happen. What am I missing?

Keen to hear your fundamental and/or TA views?
 

Attachments

  • sugar spread.png
    sugar spread.png
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