Not near my MT4 so I cant open a trade. And generally I like to review the days action at 8pm eastern. But to note my thought i will say that I would have put in an order at to sell at 133.30 on JPY with a SL of 133.65 and a TP of 132.70. If I were certain a full downtrend were in effect or a trend day I would place a trailing stop of 60 pips. However it is not end of day and i cant gauge that yet so I would set a hard target at this point. Again this is for my noting purposes and this is not a trade signal nor are any trades posted before this post or any trades after this post.
Sell EURJPY
133.30
SL 133.65
TP 132.70
Sell EURJPY
133.30
SL 133.65
TP 132.70
Price did end up making a new high 133.91 and stalled from there. Will be watching to see how it plays out.
Jason Rogers
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Guess I've been burned too many times with tighter stops on GBP/JPY
I'm usually reluctant to set anything less than 100 pips for that pair. This trade aside, have you found the tighter stops work well for you?
Guess I've been burned too many times with tighter stops on GBP/JPY
I'm usually reluctant to set anything less than 100 pips for that pair. This trade aside, have you found the tighter stops work well for you?
Well when I see momentum I like to roll with it. I use OBV for that and wait for price action to come in line with it. Because of that I place my trades where if I am correct I should be in the green within a short amount of time. Most of the time right away. if I see price not really moving or going against then that generally means I was wrong in the firts place and momentum was not ready to carry the trade. In the past when I used a website to track this I found when I was right that I was down maybe 10 pips at most on about 80% of my correct trades. At some point in the day alsmot 90% of my trades were on the right side. Sounds good, but what good is it if I could take profit at the right time? lol.
To answer your question, i use the stop as a circut breaker. JPY can go from zero to 80 pips in a flash if one is not careful. Once im in the trade I let it run. If im watching it i get out if it is apparent I was wrong. 100 pips is what i would normally suggest for GBPJPY though. Anything less than that is risky. I put 60 pip for this trade because if I am wrong I wont need 60 pips to tell me that. I expect it to rush down from that point.
Not looking nearly as bearish as I thought heading into my start for the day. Taking orders off since they havnt been triggered. I will observe the next hour. Price is above value for eurjpy and gbp jpy so either other timframe trader is going to come in and boost it up to a trend day or slam it down into a trend day. other option may be to get price back into value.
Today has a makings of a trend up day. Price has broken first 30 minute range. Not a signal in itself but a good indicator along with the fact price is above value area of the past 4 days as well. highest risk days with the highest reward. I will wait for close of this 15 minute candle. Bought at 133.98. SL is tight at 133.75. Trailing stop of 60 pips is what I will use initially. I want to see how far price will run if I am correct. Hard target of 120 pips which is the average range for a trend up kind of day.
Buy 133.98
SL 133.75
TP (TBD) trailing stop of 60 pips hard target 120 pips.
Trade triggered
Buy 133.98
SL 133.75
TP (TBD) trailing stop of 60 pips hard target 120 pips.
Trade triggered
Now for my reasoning.
Several of my keys where in play:
Price is above previous days high value area. Added strength to this is the fact it is above the past 4 days high value area.
All ichimoku trading conditions met for buy. Kinjen sen and tenken sen are aligned for buy, price above kumo, green kumo cloud, and chinku span above price in past.
OBV on hourly is still making higher highs
Those points scream up day. But the trigger for me Is the action at the open which can give a key as to the big movers intentions for the day. If the big boys think price is fair at above value then price will go high and fast. I know right away if I am correct or not so a tight stop is ok since if price does not sprint up then odds are need to get out anyways.
Several of my keys where in play:
Price is above previous days high value area. Added strength to this is the fact it is above the past 4 days high value area.
All ichimoku trading conditions met for buy. Kinjen sen and tenken sen are aligned for buy, price above kumo, green kumo cloud, and chinku span above price in past.
OBV on hourly is still making higher highs
Those points scream up day. But the trigger for me Is the action at the open which can give a key as to the big movers intentions for the day. If the big boys think price is fair at above value then price will go high and fast. I know right away if I am correct or not so a tight stop is ok since if price does not sprint up then odds are need to get out anyways.
More clarification on the stop I chose. It was tight but not arbitrary.
Since my trigger was on the 15 minute I used the kinjen sen as a guide. If price crossed back below that line the it would invalidate my buy signal. So I set stop below this point and below the low of that candle under the kinjen sen on 15 minute. This would also put price back into yesterdays value area which would also invalidate my trade anyways.
Price is already in the green 9 pips. So far this is exactly what I am looking for when all conditions are met............so far at least. Still early in the session and it could be that this high price is not accepted and price will come crashing down. Either way a decent move is in the offing.
Since my trigger was on the 15 minute I used the kinjen sen as a guide. If price crossed back below that line the it would invalidate my buy signal. So I set stop below this point and below the low of that candle under the kinjen sen on 15 minute. This would also put price back into yesterdays value area which would also invalidate my trade anyways.
Price is already in the green 9 pips. So far this is exactly what I am looking for when all conditions are met............so far at least. Still early in the session and it could be that this high price is not accepted and price will come crashing down. Either way a decent move is in the offing.
After 2 hours price has not kept moving upwards and has stalled and somewhat reversing. This may signal a normal variation day. If it is indeed that type of day price may fall to to 133.60 to get near a virgin point of control then reverse to 134.33 which is an IB extreme point. Or confirm a continuation down 133.49 area. At this time price is still above value though. I would not think it to be a variation day developing until price goes below 133.80. Until value area is breached a decent up day is still ahead.
Ended up getting stopped out.
I try to take some positive out of every decision if there is one. My trade was stopped out. However as I look back on this post I was able to determine pretty much to the pip where price would reverse if it were to go down. price turned around at 133.60/61. I guess I can accept progress in analysis. Perhaps I should pay more attention to these points of interest as I seem to locate them well. Designing a plan of action around these areas may be the way to go for me.
EURJPY Week pre analysis. I want to see how price reacts between the window of 133.79 and 133.53.
Break of 133.53 may show some more downward pressure. I will be looking for sell signals below this price.
Above 133.79 and past 134.09 I would be looking for continued uptrend.
My bias is down right now and I will focus on points of interest as provided above.
Break of 133.53 may show some more downward pressure. I will be looking for sell signals below this price.
Above 133.79 and past 134.09 I would be looking for continued uptrend.
My bias is down right now and I will focus on points of interest as provided above.
EURJPY
Price opened up 133.90 which is above my positive point of interest. This also means that a higher low was put in. I would like to see what it does on a pull back to 133.79. Price may just have wanted to touch Fridays point of control at 133.86.
GBPJPY
Point of interest for me here is 158.14. Below this and I may consider short based on price action around here targeting 157.60
Price opened up 133.90 which is above my positive point of interest. This also means that a higher low was put in. I would like to see what it does on a pull back to 133.79. Price may just have wanted to touch Fridays point of control at 133.86.
GBPJPY
Point of interest for me here is 158.14. Below this and I may consider short based on price action around here targeting 157.60
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