JPY and my progression as a trader

[ndnole]

Price went as low as 131.15 Last night. Price is currently 132.00 and in the general area of interest to me. If price struggles to get about 132.30 then i will be looking for a short signal as that area is a previous value area high.

From the start I have been thinking this would be the best area to short if iwas going to do so. With news tomorrow though I will stay out and observe. Also I wont be making a habit of trading nears news like FOMC.

 

[ndnole]

Price went as low as 131.15 Last night. Price is currently 132.00 and in the general area of interest to me. If price struggles to get about 132.30 then i will be looking for a short signal as that area is a previous value area high.

From the start I have been thinking this would be the best area to short if iwas going to do so. With news tomorrow though I will stay out and observe. Also I wont be making a habit of trading nears news like FOMC.

No sooner did price touch 132.15 then it went pretty much straight down 70 pips. I didnt take the trade because I really have to stay on track and not pick tops. I was right this time but I am willing to bet i'd be wrong more than right guessing tops. I will wait to see if a true downtrend developes and then move on a valid signal.

I am noting that these value area highs and lows really do help greatly in deciding targets and making decisions.

 

[ndnole]

No sooner did price touch 132.15 then it went pretty much straight down 70 pips. I didnt take the trade because I really have to stay on track and not pick tops. I was right this time but I am willing to bet i'd be wrong more than right guessing tops. I will wait to see if a true downtrend developes and then move on a valid signal.

I am noting that these value area highs and lows really do help greatly in deciding targets and making decisions.

Well make that down 100 pips. That was a really good level to short. I will definately pay very close attention the next time I see a setup like that again.

 

[empirical]

I see price possibly going as low as 130.80 if it breaks 131.35

Ok so it came back to the 61.8 fibo point without closing below it, so that tells me it is still going up,so take the best trade Ratio enter at 61.8 fibo with a stop loss at 78.2 for a very small risk if you want a bit more risk s/l closing bellow the 100 % fibo
fibo : r/low :130.80 and r/h:132.14.

enter:61.8 fibo=131.32
s/l < 130.80
t/p 131.99
Note: for the record your stops should allways be at changing of direction of the trend.

 

[ndnole]

Ok so it came back to the 61.8 fibo point without closing below it, so that tells me it is still going up,so take the best trade Ratio enter at 61.8 fibo with a stop loss at 78.2 for a very small risk if you want a bit more risk s/l closing bellow the 100 % fibo
fibo : r/low :130.80 and r/h:132.14.

enter:61.8 fibo=131.32
s/l < 130.80
t/p 131.99
Note: for the record your stops should allways be at changing of direction of the trend.

Just entered

Buy at 130.97
SL 130.67
TP 131.50

 

[ndnole]

My reason for entering is the fact price just touched previous month value area high and it appears to be holding for a final move up. I don't want to try and squeeze too much out of it because believe price will be going down soon but my signal says I should be able to get this trade. I chose this TP because it is below the initial balance extreme. Some resistance overhead so we will see if it pushes though it or languishes. Hopefully this TP will be hit before the news tomorrow.

 

[ndnole]

Updating TP to 131.60 because it appears previous value area high may hold for the short term. TP is just above 1st initial balance extreme but within the average true range for the day. With that I will be turning and I will see what comes of it in the morning.

 

[ndnole]

Got stopped out. Should have heeded my own advice and stuck to no trading on friday. Also once price crossed 130.80 that actually signaled a short trerm short signal for me. I was cutting it too close to squeeze in a buy. Getting better at weeding out trades but i have to keep pressing on and not taking every tradethat seems OK. Only great setups should be taken.

There was enough conflicting information for me to stay out yet I entered. Still slightly up because My first trade won me more than I lost this time around. The value of money management is the one thing I am absolutely sure i wont skimp on.

 

[ndnole]

Missed a great opportunity to short. Technically I would not have madethe trade anyways as FOMC news came out today. But I will note had I executed the trade based on my strategy I would have profited. All the same I will continue to avoid news events as they are too unpredictable.

The short from 132.00 would have been great had i taken it. I will take some time this weekend and go over the chart to see if I can nix some of my hesitancy.

 

[Babyblush]

Consistency is very much important for the traders so that they can excel in the trading business. All the best for your venture, anyways EUR/JPY is one of my favorite currency pair and the most traded currency pair.

 

[ndnole]

Well, doing weekend study and I think it is a good time to think about shorting. Hopefully there isn't a big gap down on Sunday. Targeting 128.90. Will be looking for a good entry next week

My reason for the target would be the fact that is the lower value area of the previous month and price has slid back into previous months value area.

 

[NVP]

Well, doing weekend study and I think it is a good time to think about shorting. Hopefully there isn't a big gap down on Sunday. Targeting 128.90. Will be looking for a good entry next week

My reason for the target would be the fact that is the lower value area of the previous month and price has slid back into previous months value area.

these guys are actually tracking south similarly for last week or 2.......and the Euro has spent a lot of time short in last 5 weeks .........with Dow perhaps retracing north dont get to hung up on shorting this pair next week

just a thought............will be interesting to see what happens next week .....

N

 

[NVP]

Consistency is very much important for the traders so that they can excel in the trading business. All the best for your venture, anyways EUR/JPY is one of my favorite currency pair and the most traded currency pair.[/QUOTE]

are you sure ?

N

 

[ndnole]

these guys are actually tracking south similarly for last week or 2.......and the Euro has spent a lot of time short in last 5 weeks .........with Dow perhaps retracing north dont get to hung up on shorting this pair next week

just a thought............will be interesting to see what happens next week .....

N

Yes I agree that's why I will be tracking price pretty close. Not very far from a short signal. But I don't think its a great idea to short right at the start. Might be a better entry a little later

 

[ndnole]

Pretty big gap up bout 70 points today. I'l take a look and see what to do. But price is back in an up mode right now. Best to just sit tight

 

[ndnole]

Sell stop 130.80
SL 131.20
TP 129.30

Price is at high value area on monthly/weekly. If it does not make a higher high than previous high and heads below 130.80 then I will target 129.30 and place breakeven as soon as possible. All other triggers will be hit if price goes below 130.80

 

[ndnole]

Sell stop 130.80
SL 131.20
TP 129.30

Price is at high value area on monthly/weekly. If it does not make a higher high than previous high and heads below 130.80 then I will target 129.30 and place breakeven as soon as possible. All other triggers will be hit if price goes below 130.80

Going to remove order. Price has gone up pretty fast and if it does come to my order it may be the bottom before resuming up. I will sit on the side

 

[ndnole]

Going to remove order. Price has gone up pretty fast and if it does come to my order it may be the bottom before resuming up. I will sit on the side

Well Price has gone up as feared and clearly in buy mode right now as it did not hit 130.80 and has gone in the other direction. Short term momentum has the pair going at least past 132.14 in the near term. I will wait for a better opportunity to decide. Over 132.00 is a stalling area in my view.

By my analysis I expect it to go above 132.14, but this area is also a high value area and unless momentum can hold im not sure how much more price can go over 132.34. My thought would be to fade around here at any sign of weakness or buy is this level is broken with some conviction.

 

[ndnole]

For the record price was at 131.82 at time of post

 

[NVP]

Yes I agree that's why I will be tracking price pretty close. Not very far from a short signal. But I don't think its a great idea to short right at the start. Might be a better entry a little later

I see both tracking south off a rising dow ......I personally would not be hunting shorts on the E/J for a while

N