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At the same time I am noticing that momentum on this pairis negative especially on daily. The speed of down periods is much faster than up. When this one goes down it will go down fast. Even with this rise there isnt enough momentum behind it yet. At the same time it doesnt appear wise to short now until there is some confirmation. I will just look for buys until its time to sell.
Well the pair seems to be ranging right now and not ready for trade. However gbpjpy is looking like it is getting ready to make a nice move up. If it can stay about 157.65 it will probably go up 100 pips or more based on my strategy. Not going to trade it but I will be watching closely. Currently 157.55
Well the pair seems to be ranging right now and not ready for trade. However gbpjpy is looking like it is getting ready to make a nice move up. If it can stay about 157.65 it will probably go up 100 pips or more based on my strategy. Not going to trade it but I will be watching closely. Currently 157.55
Well price did move 158.50 but to risky for me to enter due to the FOMC I would surely have been stopped out before price went back the right way. As it stands I have a buy order in for 157.90 Stop 157.40 and TP of 158.70. Current price on GBPJPY is 158.33
Reasons are price is at top of monthly value area. Uptrend is still in play but needs a little retrace. Better entry at this point which is near a POC and the lower value area of the previous day.
Well price did move 158.50 but to risky for me to enter due to the FOMC I would surely have been stopped out before price went back the right way. As it stands I have a buy order in for 157.90 Stop 157.40 and TP of 158.70. Current price on GBPJPY is 158.33
Reasons are price is at top of monthly value area. Uptrend is still in play but needs a little retrace. Better entry at this point which is near a POC and the lower value area of the previous day.
Well I missed a huge move by being too conservative. But i'l still keep the approach. Price went up as 159.98 which is 160+ pips from my observation. I dont expect to always catch these moves (In this case I didnt) nonetheless I am pleased that I can at least identify solid opportunities like these. Next time I will open half a position at a similar point as was observed and the rest at my desired placement. This way I can catch a move if it goes my way before reaching my order. I will be sure to adjust lot size so as to have the same risk each and every time though.
So, where have I been? What have I been doing? Well for the most part I have been watching charts and really looking deeply into my trading thoughts. What I have found is when I do not make a trade I can easily see where price action is developing and determining a good plan.
Hindisght is always 20/20 and its easy to see why price did what it did after the fact and it always makes sense. However once its time to make a decision I tend even now after I have learned my lesson many times over to get greedy and want to reach for more pips even though I have noted that I have a fairly decent win ration when I use 1:1.5 RR
Even after I have shown myself what I could attain to if I stuck to the trade plan, took the pips I set out to get and wait for next trade I still seek just a tad more. Fortunately I havnt gone live yet but I know now that I have to eliminate this part and just stick to set and forget and I will have to put it directly in my trade plan to do so.
Sometimes being so close to being a good trader makes it harder in a sense becuase you want to rush that last hurdle which for me is discipline.
Hindisght is always 20/20 and its easy to see why price did what it did after the fact and it always makes sense. However once its time to make a decision I tend even now after I have learned my lesson many times over to get greedy and want to reach for more pips even though I have noted that I have a fairly decent win ration when I use 1:1.5 RR
Even after I have shown myself what I could attain to if I stuck to the trade plan, took the pips I set out to get and wait for next trade I still seek just a tad more. Fortunately I havnt gone live yet but I know now that I have to eliminate this part and just stick to set and forget and I will have to put it directly in my trade plan to do so.
Sometimes being so close to being a good trader makes it harder in a sense becuase you want to rush that last hurdle which for me is discipline.
Reason for the trade is price has stayed below previous day value are and has pierced a trendline. Price is set below IB. I start my IB at 8p eastern for this Bcause so many things are in confluence I feel confident if price reaches 131.20 It should run at least 50 pips to the next point of control. At that point my stoploss should be at break even and I can see if I need to set a hard target or let the trade run. I see it as a better way to have a decent RR with the potential for more if the momentum is there.
Almost made a stupid mistake. Fortunately my order was not hit or I would have took a loss. Good thing i focus more on the swing high or low instead of arbitrary points just to get in a trade. I will need to look at what happened to see if I can learn anything from why it went so far opposite my observation, not that I expect to always be right but to see where I can find clues as to why it went they way it did.
LOL when making a stupid mistake SAVES me a lot of pips. I set my trailing stop at 50 which should have stopped me out for a 50 pip loss in this case. However, in my MT4 I put the trailing stop value as 50 which apparently is only 5 pips or so. I should have put 500 which would have equaled 50 pips. Lesson learned. As long as I have been trading I never did that before and its odd I never paid much attention to trailing stops.
Anyways, timing this pair is a chore but I still think down is the way to go. Tweeze top right now indicates down but I am staying out to cool off from today and regroup and re plan.
Anyways, timing this pair is a chore but I still think down is the way to go. Tweeze top right now indicates down but I am staying out to cool off from today and regroup and re plan.
Alright back to business. I have watched on the sidelines to refine my strategy. Today USDJPY fits the criteria. Price is above yesterdays value and range. Price is also above todays value and closing near the top of todays range. Hourly momentum is pointing upwards and price is on the right side of moving averages. Added to this is the news of the debt ceiling deal reached. All these factors show that there is good probability for a trend day upwards. These days happen 20% of the time, are the most high risk but also the most high reward per market auction theory. I set my start time for JPY pairs as 8pm eastern time. Price isn't likely to change out of this range in the next 15 minutes so all is set.
Plan for the day is watch the first 15 minutes of the 8pm open. If there is significant upward movement I will place a buy on the 2nd 15 minute candle if it breaks the first 15 minute candles high. Point of control is 98.53 so I will place my stop 10 pips below this and a trailing stop of equal amount, no matter the SL risk will be 5% and lots will be adjusted accordingly. This way if I am correct I will be in a free trade at 1:1 risk ratio and I can let the trend run its course since I am expecting a trend day. I don't plan on watching trades so set and forget is what I am trying to master.
If you are reading, this still demo I am not trading real money with this system yet.
Plan for the day is watch the first 15 minutes of the 8pm open. If there is significant upward movement I will place a buy on the 2nd 15 minute candle if it breaks the first 15 minute candles high. Point of control is 98.53 so I will place my stop 10 pips below this and a trailing stop of equal amount, no matter the SL risk will be 5% and lots will be adjusted accordingly. This way if I am correct I will be in a free trade at 1:1 risk ratio and I can let the trend run its course since I am expecting a trend day. I don't plan on watching trades so set and forget is what I am trying to master.
If you are reading, this still demo I am not trading real money with this system yet.
I can take solace in the fact that I didnt take the trade because I stuck to my rules and watched the open closely. Did not trigger due to no upward push. in fact the open at 8pm showed othertime frame was looking to sell, an early sign that price above value was unfair in other time frame participants eyes. An example to me of sticking to my p-lan willhelp me not to make a bad trade.
I can also note that I saw the likelyhood of a trend happening was high. Indeed it trended just in the opposite direction. Up or down these are the days I want to be in.
With that being said I have to note a flaw in my trading that may just be the biggest hurdle for me to be consistant. And here it is:
At 1pm eastern I noted a noticable drop on OBV 15 minute indicating that price was likey to fall at least 60 points from where it was at the time of around 98.80. Subsequently, the one hour OBV also so a signifigant drop further giving strength to the analysis. It became apparent to me that price was not going to stay up without taking a nice dip. However, my bias was up and the news about the debt deal had me thinking the pair would go up since it was going up with a hint of the deal being done. Foolish thinking of course but this a journal to be honest and document thought process.
Had I heeded those early clues I would have realized the big boys were SELLING as price was going up at least since 1pm eastern. Another clue was volume did not go higher even as price did. And lastly when I saw rejection of upper value I should have put all this together and got in short. I could not get past my bias. I see I have more work to be done in that area.
Also, it was hard to change bias because price was above all moving averages when I saw this weakning. I can at least say the main reasin did not go with the obvious short is because in the past I was burned many times going against the trend and going against a trend is something I absolutly will not do, even after this. And I am not overly reliant on MA's in fact I just use them as a guide (3 ducks actually) to help keep me on the right side of a trend.
Lastly, while I like to trade technical I see some knowledge of fundamentals are needed to filter out when to trade a certain pair and why depending on what is going on in the markets.
I can also note that I saw the likelyhood of a trend happening was high. Indeed it trended just in the opposite direction. Up or down these are the days I want to be in.
With that being said I have to note a flaw in my trading that may just be the biggest hurdle for me to be consistant. And here it is:
At 1pm eastern I noted a noticable drop on OBV 15 minute indicating that price was likey to fall at least 60 points from where it was at the time of around 98.80. Subsequently, the one hour OBV also so a signifigant drop further giving strength to the analysis. It became apparent to me that price was not going to stay up without taking a nice dip. However, my bias was up and the news about the debt deal had me thinking the pair would go up since it was going up with a hint of the deal being done. Foolish thinking of course but this a journal to be honest and document thought process.
Had I heeded those early clues I would have realized the big boys were SELLING as price was going up at least since 1pm eastern. Another clue was volume did not go higher even as price did. And lastly when I saw rejection of upper value I should have put all this together and got in short. I could not get past my bias. I see I have more work to be done in that area.
Also, it was hard to change bias because price was above all moving averages when I saw this weakning. I can at least say the main reasin did not go with the obvious short is because in the past I was burned many times going against the trend and going against a trend is something I absolutly will not do, even after this. And I am not overly reliant on MA's in fact I just use them as a guide (3 ducks actually) to help keep me on the right side of a trend.
Lastly, while I like to trade technical I see some knowledge of fundamentals are needed to filter out when to trade a certain pair and why depending on what is going on in the markets.
So lets see if I have learned anything. I am seeing the same indication that what happened to USDJPY is going to happen to EURJPY in the near future. As I type this price is 133.77. It appears the big boys are SELLING as price is going up. Based on what I see, price should be going down at least 100 pips to 132.60.
Why do I state this? 15 minute OBV has made lower low and price is stalling. This is not some holy grail that is 100%. In fact, the hourly OBV is making a higher high. But past study and recent experience has shown me that at least on JPY for some reason the 15 minute OBV is a pretty decent forecastor of future short term direction. So If I am correct then I see price breaking to at least a high over 133.84 and at some point a drop of 100 pips or more. Once the day ends and I see where price is in relation to value I will better gauge. My theory is price will close near high of the day and at 8pm open the other time frame trader will come in and bring it down. Retail buyers are bringing price up and the big buys are selling it to them, then the big boys will sellat the top, shake out all the retail ad bring price down. Rinse, wash repeat. Ltes see where this goes.
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