Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

That's right. An M. An M13 to be precise. So - the 4hr pattern ultimately did lead to an upmove.. However that up swing was just part of a larger down move still under way.

Here is the fractal nature of patterns (and markets).

Big Picture - I'm still biased for a move up soon. I will lose that bias with one bar beyond that support trendline. Unless that happens, i'll be looking for a low in EURUSD soon around 1.2780 +/- 50 pips.

So the 4hr pattern didn't work in the sense of leading to another up trend on the daily/weekly. However, it gave a fine indication for day trading.. Once the pattern completed (after a fake out), there were 200 pips plus available on the long side.

The market (EURUSD) is now moving down, so I work with it. I'm not married to a bias. Patterns fail. I am wrong a considerable part of the time. That's ok - i risk in a way that lets me survive all that. And i make my money on the times when it works due to the reward to risk on the good trades. Typical of pattern approaches..

 

[natureboy]

And now a cry for help:

Team America: World Police (6/10) Movie CLIP - I'm So Ronery (2004) HD - YouTube

 

[natureboy]

And for really real:

Bob Marley - One Love - YouTube

 

[natureboy]

Ok, strength just closed bearish on EURUSD. SO - i'm taking a chance and automating some short entries here.. see if some downside happens. There's some Italian bond sales first half of next hour.. that may be a catalyst.. who knows. I'm only looking to 1.2800 if anything

 

[natureboy]

The hourly bear channel in EURUSD, looks in my subjective view, to be more likely to keep chopping sideways rather than punch down immediately.. The market will follow the money flow..

 

[natureboy]

..still bearish under 1.2869.

 

[natureboy]

well that didn't work. On to the next one folks.

 

[natureboy]

unless the next one is this one.. bearish again under 1.2855 if strength confirms. i'm starting to think my trend indicator is a potato.

 

[natureboy]

Looking at selling EURUSD around 1.2886 if it can get up there.

 

[natureboy]

Little too aggressive. I'm trying out this tool i've been given for Support/Resistance.. still in the prototype stages. That top didn't happen, yet anyhow.

 

[natureboy]

What a *******. There was an extension pattern with 1.618 projected resistance right at 1.2895.. Aish. Apparently my head is still not right.

OK - Retrofitting. Instead of selling at the projected Resistance (which i had a time based reason also to expect a top, and a pattern)... Point Blank!!! PowPowPow (3R)... Instead of that.. Wait for 2 minute Heiken Ashi to show a trend change from that level. Doing so today would have saved me the 3R, and possibly only lost 1R or even made money depending on how this top plays out.

 

[natureboy]

I am in need of an attitude readjust folks. Need to get a little distance and perspective. I'm recognizing my thoughts are too loud and I'm not as focused on my process as I need to be.

So I'm starting on doing some personal work this weekend. Not that that relates to chart patterns, though def important for me.

Tonight I'm watching for patterns around the Aud employment number. I've been awake for 19hrs at this point.

 

[natureboy]

4hr AUDUSD has a Bearish Pattern, so a priori i'm looking for a down swing here..

 

[natureboy]

Strength meter bullish. Contradictory

 

[natureboy]

day system has me going long, i'm going long automated.. I keep messing with my edge, taking 'alternative' thought through trades.. and those trades keep losing.. So, i'm just doing my day system period. If/When it switches over to a bearish trade, then i'll go with it.

Long AUDUSD for now..

 

[natureboy]

..this could get ugly. sharp reversals, wide spreads..

 

[natureboy]

There is a clear resistance TL, 1.0322. Would plot a W10 pattern, with bias to reverse from there.. if this push up continues

 

[natureboy]

wtf. i had the news off by a whole hour.. 2130 EST is what i thought - the release was at 2030.. I need a break people.. Ai-yO!

 

[natureboy]

Bassnectar - Ping Pong [OFFICIAL] - YouTube

 

[natureboy]

Holding bullish above 1.0234