journal of trader formally known as wasp

[dbphoenix]

Keeping to the plan is largely the point of it. Eventually you'll know when to sail with the wind, but since discipline etc are issues for you, sticking to your plan is the better course. I posted this to remind you that this is expected, that you just have to ride it out. It probably has nothing to do with your plan unless you exceed your uninterrupted string of losses. If that happens, there is likely a problem.

But judging a day based on pace or on "directionlessness" can be a mistake. Yesterday, in the back of my mind, I thought why am I trading this nonsense? Is anybody there? And look at how the day turned out.

 

[wasp]

Keeping to the plan is largely the point of it. Eventually you'll know when to sail with the wind, but since discipline etc are issues for you, sticking to your plan is the better course. I posted this to remind you that this is expected, that you just have to ride it out. It probably has nothing to do with your plan unless you exceed your uninterrupted string of losses. If that happens, there is likely a problem.

Eventually I hopefully will, and at times I can see what will happen before/as it unfolds due to time trading one market but not quite got the confidence to rely on that alone. In the meantime I shall and will carry on regardless as is, but the reminder is appreciated.

But judging a day based on pace or on "directionlessness" can be a mistake. Yesterday, in the back of my mind, I thought why am I trading this nonsense? Is anybody there? And look at how the day turned out.

How did it turn out? I'm not even sure what it is you trade?

 

[dbphoenix]

Eventually I hopefully will, and at times I can see what will happen before/as it unfolds due to time trading one market but not quite got the confidence to rely on that alone.

I find trading one market makes it all a lot easier. But then I've become extremely lazy.

How did it turn out? I'm not even sure what it is you trade?

I trade the NQ, and it turned out very well.

 

[wasp]

Great stuff. I do find life less stressful and easier on one market alone but it can be annoying if that market is flat all day, but, ride out the bad and enjoy the good and it all works out well overall.

 

[dbphoenix]

The problem is that I find myself having to trade all day more often than I'd like. And I hate trading all day.

But it beats getting a job, so . . .

 

[wasp]

But it beats getting a job, so . . .

Certainly does

 

[jonnyy40]

When do you consider that your results will have statistical significance (I don't know these things).After 3 months,6months?

 

[wasp]

When do you consider that your results will have statistical significance (I don't know these things).After 3 months,6months?

Ongoing really.

I quite liked Barjons idea (as he stated in I think Firewalkers thread) of re-assesing after 100 trades and deciding whether then, in real time, the plan is one to stay with or with changes can be made to improve it.

The purpose of the journal was a test of my discipline mainly, as this way I can't lie as my rules have been stated and there will be plenty to point out my mistakes/changes quick enough. If nobody else can see them I can lie to myself and make excuses for X, Y or Z but this way it has more of an impact. (issues there I need to work on too).

For the meantime posting my results here in journal form on T2W is keeping me in check and after another 64 trades (100 since started) will then show me what, with discipline, my plan can produce, not produce, what can be changed etc...

 

[jonnyy40]

You can use that four stepper document for discipline.As many times as you like.I should keep a record of what you write on them though so that over time you can reinforce certain points.

 

[dbphoenix]

Ongoing really.

I quite liked Barjons idea (as he stated in I think Firewalkers thread) of re-assesing after 100 trades and deciding whether then, in real time, the plan is one to stay with or with changes can be made to improve it.

100 trades aren't necessary, or at least backtested trades. One should know after twenty whether or not he has something with possibilities. If he does, he can then forward test it. If he doesn't, then he can either tweak it if possible or start over.

This depends, of course, on whether one goes through the entire testing process or jumps into real-time trading with little or no preparation.

 

[wasp]

100 trades aren't necessary, or at least backtested trades. One should know after twenty whether or not he has something with possibilities. If he does, he can then forward test it. If he doesn't, then he can either tweak it if possible or start over.

This depends, of course, on whether one goes through the entire testing process or jumps into real-time trading with little or no preparation.

The 100 trades will/are being made in real time to see whether I can produce the same results again as in backtests and to see if I can keep the discipline to the plan. Only then can I be sure of the validity. 100 trades just seems a good amount to use to show if profits can be forthcoming each month thereafter. Incidentally it works out roughly to about a months worth.

 

[dbphoenix]

The part about the month may be more important than the number of trades. A month provides a better sample of market activity, whereas some people could go through 100 trades in a couple of days. And since discipline is an issue for you (which technically has nothing to do with the plan itself), time is as important as the number of trades.

 

[wasp]

Yep. Totally agree but also remember part of my plan/discipline is a MAXMIMUM of 5 trades in a day so it all works out.

 

[barjon]

Ongoing really.

I quite liked Barjons idea (as he stated in I think Firewalkers thread) of re-assesing after 100 trades and deciding whether then, in real time, the plan is one to stay with or with changes can be made to improve it.

The purpose of the journal was a test of my discipline mainly, as this way I can't lie as my rules have been stated and there will be plenty to point out my mistakes/changes quick enough. If nobody else can see them I can lie to myself and make excuses for X, Y or Z but this way it has more of an impact. (issues there I need to work on too).

For the meantime posting my results here in journal form on T2W is keeping me in check and after another 64 trades (100 since started) will then show me what, with discipline, my plan can produce, not produce, what can be changed etc...

wasp

fwiw i think db's right about getting a good idea about whether you're onto something worthwhile with a lot less trades. My main purpose in reviewing every 100 trades is that I keep a number of variables logged and I look to see if any of them are lifting in significance (to a level that would merit inclusion in my rules and conditions) or reducing in significance to a point that would exclude them.

good trading

jon

 

[wasp]

Well, so far the tally is -

59 trades and...

502 pips profit...

over 13 days.

I think I will keep trading everything exactly as is for another 7 days (roughly 100 trades total) to see how I fare because as yet, I have not had any big days to test my staying power so need those to give a decent wide range of market behaviour.



EDIT: wow thats only an average of 8 pips per trade... sounds crap now!

 

[jm99]

good idea to keep a journal....good luck with it wasp.

I have just read through the thread and think i agree with just about everything db has said. Have you read any van tharp or mark douglas books? i rate them both on the displine, controling emotions aspect etc.

Re your system and testing, have you ever filtered signals in hte direction of higher timeframes? or confluence of trends and major divergences in higher timeframes? would mean missing out on some trades & moves but may increase the system profitability.

 

[jm99]

also, costs and slippage are massive influences in the long term performance. if your stake is £20 per point on a 3 pip spread with a spreadbetter you can afford to trade the bp cme contract, tigher spread, better fills and you wouldnt have to deal with the bucket shops

good luck with it

 

[trendie]

Well, so far the tally is -

59 trades and...

502 pips profit...

over 13 days.

I think I will keep trading everything exactly as is for another 7 days (roughly 100 trades total) to see how I fare because as yet, I have not had any big days to test my staying power so need those to give a decent wide range of market behaviour.



EDIT: wow thats only an average of 8 pips per trade... sounds crap now!

EDIT: comments removed in light of dbps post below.
My comments werent in any way hurtful.
However, I should be more supportive in my comments !!

 

[dbphoenix]

Guys, wasp is trying to develop the discipline to follow his plan. The degree of profitability is not the major concern. If he gains confidence in the profitability of his plan AND in his discipline to follow it, he can then increase his size. That will not only amplify the profit:loss ratio but decrease trading costs.

 

[wasp]

good idea to keep a journal....good luck with it wasp.

I have just read through the thread and think i agree with just about everything db has said. Have you read any van tharp or mark douglas books? i rate them both on the displine, controling emotions aspect etc.

Re your system and testing, have you ever filtered signals in hte direction of higher timeframes? or confluence of trends and major divergences in higher timeframes? would mean missing out on some trades & moves but may increase the system profitability.

Hi jm99,

Never read a trading book in my life. All I know is through blood, sweat and tears! oh, and lots of time and $$$! Any book regarding discipline may be useful but I'm getting on top of it now in my own way which I think is a good thing to do.

I have tried every conceivable variable to my basic strat and taking every factor in from market movements to my own preferences, this one came out the best for me. I looked at using a bigger timeframe (ie 1 hour) and it had alot less losing trades but made alot less pips a month too. Weighing up the pro's and con's this worked out the best.

also, costs and slippage are massive influences in the long term performance. if your stake is £20 per point on a 3 pip spread with a spreadbetter you can afford to trade the bp cme contract, tigher spread, better fills and you wouldnt have to deal with the bucket shops

good luck with it

No problems really so far, I ahve had 2 trades not filled very quickly over news announcements but both have been small movers so not too much to complain about. Normally I enter a trade before the news so slippage isn't an issue. As for costs, all my profits/pips as tallied here are after costs.