journal of trader formally known as wasp

[wasp]

yes, but, with about 4 - 5 trades a day, thats about 32 - 40 pips a day.
whatever you do, dont look at the cost of spread, it will make you cry. ( 3 pips per trade as cost ? )

dont read ChowClowns thread on Hans-style break-out, 2 trades a day, currently running at close on 700 pips so far, in August.

chin up.

Cheers Trendie ,

As it goes the tally for August surpasses Chows as it includes the first week with the UK rate hike and NFP but they weren't included in my running totals to date and I'm not competing anyhow.

Also the spread is already subtracted from my total profits.

Good to see Chow is doing well too

 

[wasp]

Guys, wasp is trying to develop the discipline to follow his plan. The degree of profitability is not the major concern. If he gains confidence in the profitability of his plan AND in his discipline to follow it, he can then increase his size. That will not only amplify the profit:loss ratio but decrease trading costs.

exactly.

 

[trendie]

wasp,

over on the "simple moving average" thread, they started with a 5MA, and evolved to adding MACD to keep them out of whipsaws, (or only taking trades in the direction of MACD)

have you tried anything similar ?

 

[wasp]

yeah I tried it with a MACD and a stochastic but kept tying them together so much that they both told me the same thing at the same time or, the lower indicator was delaying entries. I saw them more of a hindrance personally.

 

[wasp]

Additionally, the lesser indicators and the more time spent watching the market, the more I see the price 'indicate' the moves the MA's signal so hopefully, in time, the MA's will go too.

 

[jm99]

Guys, wasp is trying to develop the discipline to follow his plan. The degree of profitability is not the major concern. If he gains confidence in the profitability of his plan AND in his discipline to follow it, he can then increase his size. That will not only amplify the profit:loss ratio but decrease trading costs.

understand what your saying db. I was not suggesting an increase in position size though, just an observation that costs can be reduced. my rationale being - reduced costs leads to increased system performance/profitability, leads to greater confidence in system, leads to better disipline etc.

also when spreadbetting, costs will not be reduced if position size is increased, the cost is the spread, 3 pips, no commish, like with fx futures.

for a daytrading system based on the size and frequcy wasp is using, uk spreadbetting is an expensive option,. switching to trading bp will have a big impact on the performance/profitbality. lets say it will save £10 per trade (assumes reduced 2 pt b/a spread, with £10 commish, just for ease of example), thats £50 per day based on 5 trades per day. Over a year (200 trading days, again for ease of eg) thats £10,000

 

[wasp]

Hi jm99,

I realise the costs of an SB won't reduce but I do plan on moving to a differnt broker and more than likely it will be futures, hence the threads on 'best for FX' and 'hotspot' to decide on the best course of action.

At the moment if I can perfect my plan and control myself and my discipline I will be happy. Then I can move to the best option.

 

[firewalker99]

Not Yoda; Yoder. Bo Yoder. Has to do with market rhythms. He points out that the trader can expect to ride series of wins and series of losses. If he becomes so upset by the series of losses that he loses the confidence to take advantage of the series of winners, his account will gradually but inexorably deteriorate.

Wasp, in this light, a little question if allowed. In the exercise db asked me to count the maximum number of successive losses. If in real time you would run into such a losing streak, would you papertrade, lower your size, stop trading for a day or something else?

 

[wasp]

Wasp, in this light, a little question if allowed. In the exercise db asked me to count the maximum number of successive losses. If in real time you would run into such a losing streak, would you papertrade, lower your size, stop trading for a day or something else?

As I run a maximum of 5 trades per day and my worst run ever recorded to date was 14 (in 3 years of tests) I would need to have three days in a row of loss after loss. On the fourth day if it still continued (losses) I would stop and paper trade and re-assess to see what I could do to stop it happening again. Basically cable would have to virtually stop and become a flat line for that to happen and thankfully there is always something to give it a good boost a couple of days in the week (he says, hoping!).

So in answer to your query, I'd run it till I surpassed my worst ever then I'd get out and stay out till I fixed the problem.

 

[wasp]

A spike with that?

:|

Plan the trade, trade the plan. So I did. Doesn't always work out but it will... Oh yes, it will...

 

[wasp]

Bernanke, the FED and my consequent nurafen addiction

I really can't stand a run up to whenever Bernanke or his predecessor were speaking. Granted, the news from the FED is extremely relevant to the said market but its the behaviour en-route and around the market at the time that bothers me.

This week for example has been a quiet week for news and what little has come out has been absorbed into the market with little effect or in spikes with little follow through. It is August and prime holiday season so that also keeps movement smaller.

NFP and many other important news data releases produces good decent moves in one direction or another. Also, the days leading up to these announcements, business continues as usual.

The FED announcements on the other hand are IMO a pain in the preverbial. The last time around the lead up for 2 days prior was dire to say the least and then the announcement spiked up 80, down 90, then up 40 to be where it was half hour beforehand. All but one of these FED speches in this year alone have had nearly the same charecteristics every time. We had one a couple of months back that sent the market up 175 pips beautifully but that was it, just once.

Looking through this weeks calender, on Friday, Bernanke is speaking again. This is probably why cable has been crap for the last couple of days and today. Tomorrow is the final day prior so I personally expect little and I hope, for a change, as we are in such a tight position in the 4hr channel, we will see another of the decent moves, not just a spiky hour then back to where we started, becuase that, would make for a very dissapointing week.

 

[firewalker99]

This week for example has been a quiet week for news and what little has come out has been absorbed into the market with little effect or in spikes with little follow through. It is August and prime holiday season so that also keeps movement smaller.

If you're refering to cable, I don't know. But the DAX seems to be moving around as much as any time. I've checked the average daily range, and it's actually higher then during the first 5 months of this year.

The FED announcements on the other hand are IMO a pain in the preverbial. The last time around the lead up for 2 days prior was dire to say the least and then the announcement spiked up 80, down 90, then up 40 to be where it was half hour beforehand. All but one of these FED speches in this year alone have had nearly the same charecteristics every time. We had one a couple of months back that sent the market up 175 pips beautifully but that was it, just once.

I usually stay out of the market when I'm expecting news...That spiking up, down, up again, and down perhaps once more can be very annoying indeed I've seen it on more than one occasion on the DAX, and sometimes these moves can be greater than 50 points in a couple of seconds (1 point = 25 EUR...)

 

[wasp]

sorry, should have said I was referring solely to cable.

 

[Priceman]

Wasp, I am in total agreement with you on how frustrating cable has been lately but you should realise that you are becoming a much better trader from what's happening and these testing times are strengthening your character. I don't even know you and I can see just what's happening to you. You really are getting good at this mate.

You're still making the spondoolicks man, enjoy it. I'm enjoying watching your progress.

 

[jm99]

Hi jm99,

I realise the costs of an SB won't reduce but I do plan on moving to a differnt broker and more than likely it will be futures, hence the threads on 'best for FX' and 'hotspot' to decide on the best course of action.

At the moment if I can perfect my plan and control myself and my discipline I will be happy. Then I can move to the best option.

wasp, my coments re sb costs were aim at db, though maybe he wasnt aware of uk spreadbetting re the increased size, reduced costs comment

havent read the other threads..........will take a look

 

[jm99]

I really can't stand a run up to whenever Bernanke or his predecessor were speaking. Granted, the news from the FED is extremely relevant to the said market but its the behaviour en-route and around the market at the time that bothers me.

This week for example has been a quiet week for news and what little has come out has been absorbed into the market with little effect or in spikes with little follow through. It is August and prime holiday season so that also keeps movement smaller.

NFP and many other important news data releases produces good decent moves in one direction or another. Also, the days leading up to these announcements, business continues as usual.

The FED announcements on the other hand are IMO a pain in the preverbial. The last time around the lead up for 2 days prior was dire to say the least and then the announcement spiked up 80, down 90, then up 40 to be where it was half hour beforehand. All but one of these FED speches in this year alone have had nearly the same charecteristics every time. We had one a couple of months back that sent the market up 175 pips beautifully but that was it, just once.

Looking through this weeks calender, on Friday, Bernanke is speaking again. This is probably why cable has been crap for the last couple of days and today. Tomorrow is the final day prior so I personally expect little and I hope, for a change, as we are in such a tight position in the 4hr channel, we will see another of the decent moves, not just a spiky hour then back to where we started, becuase that, would make for a very dissapointing week.

your right wasp, it been quiet all round, low volum, low volatility, waiting for the fed. sp cash printed a nr7 inside day fwiw. bernankce start at 10 ny time, so expecting a tight range till then.

i'll probably get a bollocking form db for straying off topic again , but have you considered not trading on days when volatility is expected to be dry? also if you know volaitility is likely to pick up during the speech, why not trade a strategy that may profit from the action, rather than be whipped. easier said than done i know. previously i went flat on such occasions, because like you said it is one big whip. recently i have be trading strats that take advantage of any volatility.

 

[dbphoenix]

wasp, my coments re sb costs were aim at db, though maybe he wasnt aware of uk spreadbetting re the increased size, reduced costs comment

havent read the other threads..........will take a look

So if the spread remains constant, the cost is greater as your size increases?

 

[wasp]

your right wasp, it been quiet all round, low volum, low volatility, waiting for the fed. sp cash printed a nr7 inside day fwiw. bernankce start at 10 ny time, so expecting a tight range till then.

i'll probably get a bollocking form db for straying off topic again , but have you considered not trading on days when volatility is expected to be dry? also if you know volaitility is likely to pick up during the speech, why not trade a strategy that may profit from the action, rather than be whipped. easier said than done i know. previously i went flat on such occasions, because like you said it is one big whip. recently i have be trading strats that take advantage of any volatility.

I saw the Bernanke speech for Friday on the calender at the start of the week and din't really expect the whole week to be waiting just for this, more fool me. In future I will be paying alot more attention to run ups to the FED speeches. Its an annoying thing but as you say, ammending my strat may be wise in this situation. I don't particulary like to do so but in this days prior it seems I have little choice.

I will be trading alot more carefully around the speech although trying to keep to my plan as tight as possible but with closer stops as sods law I'll jump ship expecting spikes, and it'll run like a dream if I do :cheesy:

Not off topic at all, anything cable related welcome on the thread/journal as it all relates to my trading.

 

[wasp]

Hmmm, so UK GDP, could have sworn that was a good mover... Oh no, Bernanke is speaking later, do nothing lads... we'll wait, and then do nothing tonight! what a waste of ****** time!

 

[wasp]

Friday

Emotions getting in the way of a robust decent plan:

Actually a profitable day but my private hatred for FED days have gotton the better of me and I have just missed the best move of the day.

Had 2 great movers this morning and then the lacklustre efforts during/after Bernanke made me give up after T4. Stupid as I should have taken the fifth but I'd lost all faith this week.

Hopefully I can clear my mind over the weekend and start afresh and anew next week and be emotion free and trade my plan regardless. I do hope we get some movement though...