danarm
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danarm
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Well i am distraught after the rugby...
An afternoon where we were clearly the better side...We were stonger, fitter and more skilful and all they could manage in the 1st half was gouging out Lions eyes. Thats what they do and they do it very well. If you aren't hard enough then you dont go and play in SA. Simple as that...We all know Burger should have been sent off after 32 seconds but thats the touch judge's decision and he was too weak to call it...I presume he will be banned for 6 months now or at least should be. Saying that i doubt he would be selected after that performance...
South Africa (in respect to them) have this hardness about them that we dont quite have...Its in their blood and if you are fed steak from the age of one you are going to be a very big boy. They are very gifted at rugby and their culture is all about being a Springbok, which i think is great. They probably deserve the series but i am a little gutted as we had our chances.
I wont even talk about O'Gara but that is true sport at this level..The fine line of decision making at exactly the right time. Probabaly a little concussed and made a very poor decision at the wrong time with 5 seconds to go. I do feel for him but he is not the reason why we lost series.
Looking forward to the Tri Nations now and good luck SA. I think Australia are going to be the team to beat. My prediction which is ballsy...1) Australia 2) SA 3) NZ... When was the last time NZ came third?
Have a good weekend.
D
An afternoon where we were clearly the better side...We were stonger, fitter and more skilful and all they could manage in the 1st half was gouging out Lions eyes. Thats what they do and they do it very well. If you aren't hard enough then you dont go and play in SA. Simple as that...We all know Burger should have been sent off after 32 seconds but thats the touch judge's decision and he was too weak to call it...I presume he will be banned for 6 months now or at least should be. Saying that i doubt he would be selected after that performance...
South Africa (in respect to them) have this hardness about them that we dont quite have...Its in their blood and if you are fed steak from the age of one you are going to be a very big boy. They are very gifted at rugby and their culture is all about being a Springbok, which i think is great. They probably deserve the series but i am a little gutted as we had our chances.
I wont even talk about O'Gara but that is true sport at this level..The fine line of decision making at exactly the right time. Probabaly a little concussed and made a very poor decision at the wrong time with 5 seconds to go. I do feel for him but he is not the reason why we lost series.
Looking forward to the Tri Nations now and good luck SA. I think Australia are going to be the team to beat. My prediction which is ballsy...1) Australia 2) SA 3) NZ... When was the last time NZ came third?
Have a good weekend.
D
danarm
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Good morning
I hope you all had an enjoyable weekend.
USDCHF
• The hourly trend is positive suggesting strength in the USD this morning.
• A break above 1.0877 will see USD strength coming into the market and we can use the 60min 20ma as support.
• As it stands we are boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma with a positive silver cross of the 15min 20ma crossing the 60min 20ma.
• The WP will be key here and any break below 1.0826 will see weaker USD today.
EURUSD
• The hourly trend is negative suggesting weakness in the EUR this morning.
• Heavy resistance at 1.4077 & 1.4107.
• A break below 1.3997 would see a break of the WP and previous low for a move towards DS2 at 1.3954 and potentially DS3 at 1.3903
• Wont be looking for any long play in EUR unless the 60min 20ma is broken on the upside and tests the DP at 1.4065
CABLE
• The hourly trend is negative suggesting weakness in GBP this morning.
• The old high at 1.6511 & 1.6557 will be key resistance levels.
• GBP is boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma making a very small gap of opportunity.
• With the 84CCI in red we should be looking to sell but it is hard to sell with the 4hr 20ma so close. Would need to see a break below 1.6421 to really suggest GBP weakness today.
• If the 4hr 20ma holds and support comes into the GBP market the only long play we would look for would be a break of the 60min 20ma, a pullback onto support and then a push through the resistance at 1.6511.
EURGBP
• The hourly trend is negative suggesting weakness in EUR this morning.
• WP at 0.8500 & previous low at 0.8475 are key support levels.
• Looking for a break south here.
* The hourly trend is the 84 CCI on the 15min chart
Thanks
Dan
I hope you all had an enjoyable weekend.
USDCHF
• The hourly trend is positive suggesting strength in the USD this morning.
• A break above 1.0877 will see USD strength coming into the market and we can use the 60min 20ma as support.
• As it stands we are boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma with a positive silver cross of the 15min 20ma crossing the 60min 20ma.
• The WP will be key here and any break below 1.0826 will see weaker USD today.
EURUSD
• The hourly trend is negative suggesting weakness in the EUR this morning.
• Heavy resistance at 1.4077 & 1.4107.
• A break below 1.3997 would see a break of the WP and previous low for a move towards DS2 at 1.3954 and potentially DS3 at 1.3903
• Wont be looking for any long play in EUR unless the 60min 20ma is broken on the upside and tests the DP at 1.4065
CABLE
• The hourly trend is negative suggesting weakness in GBP this morning.
• The old high at 1.6511 & 1.6557 will be key resistance levels.
• GBP is boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma making a very small gap of opportunity.
• With the 84CCI in red we should be looking to sell but it is hard to sell with the 4hr 20ma so close. Would need to see a break below 1.6421 to really suggest GBP weakness today.
• If the 4hr 20ma holds and support comes into the GBP market the only long play we would look for would be a break of the 60min 20ma, a pullback onto support and then a push through the resistance at 1.6511.
EURGBP
• The hourly trend is negative suggesting weakness in EUR this morning.
• WP at 0.8500 & previous low at 0.8475 are key support levels.
• Looking for a break south here.
* The hourly trend is the 84 CCI on the 15min chart
Thanks
Dan
B
Black Swan
danarm
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I am not sure if it's the weather or the fact that no one has a cluewhat to do either way the market is quiet but feels in good shape.Weirdly govies trade extremely well and yet so do stocks and creditmarkets. The market to me is very reminiscent of 2006 early 2007,fundamentals kind of irrelevant, liquidity over-riding everything else.The one difference between now and back then are spreads. Levelshistorically still look cheap so if the central banks keep throwingmoney at the banks, levels can still tighten in further from currentprices. This week spells the end of June, the quarter and half year andwe also have a Non Farm Thursday. Lots to look forward to and at themoment it appears the liquidity out there is creating another bubblehence prices rally further. Of course the problem with a bubble is thatno one has a clue how far it will inflate. Who would have thought thatthe Nasdaq traded at 5000, Kaz banks at 200 over or Nestle at 2bp? Mostpeople out there know it will all end in tears what we don't know is thetiming. As one of the bears I am going to temporarily abstain andwatch, the further we rally the more I fear the cost to the nextgeneration. Enjoy Wimbledon and the sun and if you are a bull therally!
Mr P.......
Mr P.......
danarm
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Good morning
CABLE
• The 60min trend is up so technically we should be looking for continued strength in GBP this am.
• The 84 CCI is a little over bought for my liking.
• Looking for a pullback and for GBP to find support off the old resistance around the 1.6592 level.
• At that stage the 60min 20ma will be following as support.
• Use the 7 CCI trigger for confirmation.
USDCHF
• The 60min trend is down and looking for USD to weaken further over the next few days.
• Support at 1.0794 and looking for a break here for a move towards the DS2 and DS3.
• An ascending triangle has formed and resistance is sitting at 1.0850 which is close to the 60min 50ma.
• Lets use the trigger and resistance at 1.0850 for a short play (with trend) and then add on break of the 1.0794 level.
USDJPY
• With Indices having a surprisingly good day yesterday USDJPY found support.
• The 60min trend is flat at this moment but if we get the 60min golden cross of MAs then a break through the MP at 96.35 will be key.
• Boxed between the WP and MP and waiting for break.
• The descending triangle is still in place from yesterday and a break of 95.00 will certainly see USDJPY lower.
EURGBP
• The 60min trend is down and GBP seems to be holding stronger for now.
• 0.8475 is still the key level to break however with EUR across the board looking strong EURGBP isn’t exactly lighting my fire.
• Still waiting for this break lower.
EURJPY
• USDJPY 60min trend is flat but with USD showing signs of weakness EUR across the board looks supported.
• EURJPY 60 min trend is still up and resting on DP.
• Let’s look for a double bottom and break back above the 15min 20ma for any long play.
• There is a resistance line heading down from midnight. Look for the break here which would coincide with the 15min 20ma.
Conclude
• Hard to trade GBP ahead of Halifax HPI at 7.00am
• EURJPY looks appealing on the break.
• Lets wait for levels to break in USDCHF & EURGBP
Thanks
Dan
CABLE
• The 60min trend is up so technically we should be looking for continued strength in GBP this am.
• The 84 CCI is a little over bought for my liking.
• Looking for a pullback and for GBP to find support off the old resistance around the 1.6592 level.
• At that stage the 60min 20ma will be following as support.
• Use the 7 CCI trigger for confirmation.
USDCHF
• The 60min trend is down and looking for USD to weaken further over the next few days.
• Support at 1.0794 and looking for a break here for a move towards the DS2 and DS3.
• An ascending triangle has formed and resistance is sitting at 1.0850 which is close to the 60min 50ma.
• Lets use the trigger and resistance at 1.0850 for a short play (with trend) and then add on break of the 1.0794 level.
USDJPY
• With Indices having a surprisingly good day yesterday USDJPY found support.
• The 60min trend is flat at this moment but if we get the 60min golden cross of MAs then a break through the MP at 96.35 will be key.
• Boxed between the WP and MP and waiting for break.
• The descending triangle is still in place from yesterday and a break of 95.00 will certainly see USDJPY lower.
EURGBP
• The 60min trend is down and GBP seems to be holding stronger for now.
• 0.8475 is still the key level to break however with EUR across the board looking strong EURGBP isn’t exactly lighting my fire.
• Still waiting for this break lower.
EURJPY
• USDJPY 60min trend is flat but with USD showing signs of weakness EUR across the board looks supported.
• EURJPY 60 min trend is still up and resting on DP.
• Let’s look for a double bottom and break back above the 15min 20ma for any long play.
• There is a resistance line heading down from midnight. Look for the break here which would coincide with the 15min 20ma.
Conclude
• Hard to trade GBP ahead of Halifax HPI at 7.00am
• EURJPY looks appealing on the break.
• Lets wait for levels to break in USDCHF & EURGBP
Thanks
Dan
danarm
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Much like the last 6 months its been a game of 2 halves today.Obviously the first part of this year was D&G and part 2 was reflate thebubble everything is fine lets strap it back on like the old days.Today was in reverse with everyone strapping it on in the morning andselling it in the afternoon as stocks sold off. I apologise for myfrustration but essentially FX, Commodity, Credit and Equity traders areall trading the same markets ie the S&P. The one market that has buckedthe trend that has a sense of independence is the govy market. Althoughoff it highs it trades extremely well despite the fact all the expertsare calling for inflation to get out of control. Have a guess whichmarket is the most reliable at forecasting recessions, and bouts ofmarket volatility, you guessed it the govy market, so watch this space! The past 6 months has been a proper rollercoaster and its interestingthat in just 3 months we have gone from one extreme to the other. Backin March everyone was calling the end of the world and now in June allthe D&G economists are calling the worst has past. Well as always Idon't buy it, we have rallied on liquidity and not fundamentals and Idon't care about numbers being fudged in China, or copper prices orKorean exports, I want to see house prices bottoming and jobs (not madeup Gordon Brown jobs) being created in the private sector, then and onlythen will I concede we are past the worst. Talking of which did anyonesee the UK data today? Awful data (current account data and GDP) andbrings back my very simple statement, the numbers just don't add up!Income is less than expenditure and remind me didn't that get us intotrouble in the first place? Anyway tomorrow brings us a new month, a new quarter and a new secondhalf I have a sneaky feeling this rollercoaster ride isn't over justyet.
Mr P......
Mr P......
I'm not in any way, shape or form, an expert in economics - truth be told, I am from a totally different profession - but yes, even laymen such as myself can see that the truth is not being told, and that we are going to be hit a second time; and one that I believe will be harsher. Of course our masters cannot tell us the real story as they need to contain panic, but when the axe falls, one hopes that they suffer the same as the rest of us.
Eric, happy to see you back here. Hope to see you back in the live room sometime soon.
Eric, happy to see you back here. Hope to see you back in the live room sometime soon.
danarm
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Good morning
So confidence is low and Indices get a hammering. Is this the start of another big push lower!!!
The WS Future sees its WP now below the MP for the 1st time since March…8330 & 8316 are two supports the WS Future needs to drive through before attacking the big support level at 8,200. A break through here and we could see a substantial move lower.
With that on the back of our mind, the USD should remain a little supported but again lets trade what we see and stay with the trend for that currency.
CABLE
The 60min trend and 4hr trend is now down with only the Daily still positive.
There is support at 1.6411 and technically we should be looking for a south play (with the trend) on the break to retest the MP around the 1.6339 level.
EURUSD
The 60min and 4hr trend is now down with only the daily trend still positive.
We are boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 4hr 50ma with solid support around the 1.4000.
Technically we should be looking for a break through the 1.4000 down to WS1 at 1.3887.
If the USD does weaken this am, then a 123 through the 1.4061 resistance would be a key level to work off.
USDCHF
The 4hr MA´s are flat as a pancake which makes it very hard to trade from here.
Might need to be patient across the board if the USD is going be hard to trade this am.
Technically the 60min trend is positive and a break back above the 15min 20ma would see USD strength this am. We could wait for a 123 on the 5min chart for an entry with a tight stop.
EURGBP
Looks supported this am off the MP.
The 60min trend is positive so we should be looking for long plays.
For me the Silver cross of the 4hr 20ma and Daily 20ma will be key. It seems to building towards this and that will confirm strength in the EUR.
Watch the break of 0.8550 for a move higher.
So confidence is low and Indices get a hammering. Is this the start of another big push lower!!!
The WS Future sees its WP now below the MP for the 1st time since March…8330 & 8316 are two supports the WS Future needs to drive through before attacking the big support level at 8,200. A break through here and we could see a substantial move lower.
With that on the back of our mind, the USD should remain a little supported but again lets trade what we see and stay with the trend for that currency.
CABLE
The 60min trend and 4hr trend is now down with only the Daily still positive.
There is support at 1.6411 and technically we should be looking for a south play (with the trend) on the break to retest the MP around the 1.6339 level.
EURUSD
The 60min and 4hr trend is now down with only the daily trend still positive.
We are boxed between the 4hr 20ma and 4hr 50ma with solid support around the 1.4000.
Technically we should be looking for a break through the 1.4000 down to WS1 at 1.3887.
If the USD does weaken this am, then a 123 through the 1.4061 resistance would be a key level to work off.
USDCHF
The 4hr MA´s are flat as a pancake which makes it very hard to trade from here.
Might need to be patient across the board if the USD is going be hard to trade this am.
Technically the 60min trend is positive and a break back above the 15min 20ma would see USD strength this am. We could wait for a 123 on the 5min chart for an entry with a tight stop.
EURGBP
Looks supported this am off the MP.
The 60min trend is positive so we should be looking for long plays.
For me the Silver cross of the 4hr 20ma and Daily 20ma will be key. It seems to building towards this and that will confirm strength in the EUR.
Watch the break of 0.8550 for a move higher.
Rollingstone
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Pips for breakfast then party time
Hi Dan, hi all
Great morning in the room, pips in the tin, Dan left and now we're partying!
This little economic joke is courtesy of Boord, James Boord.
It's the month of August on the shores of the Black Sea. It's raining and the little town looks totally deserted. It's tough times, everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit.
Suddenly a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one. The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower. The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel. The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note to the town's prostitute that in these hard times gave her "services" on credit. The hooker runs to the hotel and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor for the rooms that she rented when she brought her Clients there.
The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything. At that moment the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms and takes his 100 Euro note after saying he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town. No one earned anything however the whole town is now without debt and looks to the future with a lot of optimism.
And that ladies and gentlemen is how the United States Government is doing business.
Back to the party.
RS
Hi Dan, hi all
Great morning in the room, pips in the tin, Dan left and now we're partying!
This little economic joke is courtesy of Boord, James Boord.
It's the month of August on the shores of the Black Sea. It's raining and the little town looks totally deserted. It's tough times, everybody is in debt and everybody lives on credit.
Suddenly a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one. The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower. The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel. The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note to the town's prostitute that in these hard times gave her "services" on credit. The hooker runs to the hotel and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor for the rooms that she rented when she brought her Clients there.
The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything. At that moment the rich tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms and takes his 100 Euro note after saying he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town. No one earned anything however the whole town is now without debt and looks to the future with a lot of optimism.
And that ladies and gentlemen is how the United States Government is doing business.
Back to the party.
RS
Rollingstone
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PS Well done Joan, student of the day again! I'm gonna have to pull my socks up.
danarm
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Afternoon all
Had to take misses to the dentist after the live room but what a trade in USDCHF hey.
We talked about the 123 in USDCHF in detail before i left. Trust u made some nice piparoonies in that... My order got kicked in so happy days and still short as we speak. Always good to tuck in a 100pip trade. I know quite a few of you have been in EURGBP long as well, so hats off to you.
Lovely jubbly. See u all tomorrow.
Dan
Had to take misses to the dentist after the live room but what a trade in USDCHF hey.
We talked about the 123 in USDCHF in detail before i left. Trust u made some nice piparoonies in that... My order got kicked in so happy days and still short as we speak. Always good to tuck in a 100pip trade. I know quite a few of you have been in EURGBP long as well, so hats off to you.
Lovely jubbly. See u all tomorrow.
Dan
Princepessa
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Thanks, you're making me blush(if I could that is:cheesy. This is just one day so it's nothing. Now when I make student of the day 5 days in a row, I can MAYBE start preening..
. This is just one day so it's nothing. Now when I make student of the day 5 days in a row, I can MAYBE start preening..
Rollingstone
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Thanks, you're making me blush(if I could that is:cheesy
That was a great trade, opened, managed and closed to perfection. I think you can start preening now!
Don't forget Dan's apple for the morning. :smart:
RS
danarm
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Gorilla's like their apples!!!
Just been for a 5k run and nearly died again. Saying that its my 4th time and i am slowly getting better.
You wouldnt believe i was an athlete all those years ago..hahaha.
See u all tomorrow.
Lets eat some more pips.
D
Just been for a 5k run and nearly died again. Saying that its my 4th time and i am slowly getting better.
You wouldnt believe i was an athlete all those years ago..hahaha.
See u all tomorrow.
Lets eat some more pips.
D
danarm
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I 2nd that... A great trade and managed to perfection. Well done. D
Tenapenny
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Thank goodness for e-mail
Couldn't go to the room this morning due to other commitments, so missed out. Or so I thought. Checked my e-mail and there were 2 from James recommending keeping an eye on USD/CHF and GBP/JPY. I saw the set-ups I needed and banked 103 pips between them this morning. Thank you James.
Ken
Couldn't go to the room this morning due to other commitments, so missed out. Or so I thought. Checked my e-mail and there were 2 from James recommending keeping an eye on USD/CHF and GBP/JPY. I saw the set-ups I needed and banked 103 pips between them this morning. Thank you James.
Ken
danarm
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Friday July 3rd
Good morning all
Trust you had an enjoyable afternoon yesterday.
The States are off today with 4th July tomorrow so could be very quiet. Lets see as CABLE and EURUSD are setup quite well.
CABLE
• The USD looks set to strengthen with OIL and Wall ST falling.
• The 4h trend and 60min trend is down so technically we should be looking for short plays.
• Everything suggests further weakness with heavy resistance at 1.6388, 1.6426 & 1.6449
• GBP has tested the MP (or just below) three times now at 1.6321.
• We are looking for this to break either today or early next week.
• A break through that last major support should see a solid move towards the 1.6184 level.
• Looking for break of 1.6360 for a move to test previous low.
• If for what ever reason USD weakens and MP holds I will only look for a long play on the break back above the WP at 1.6436
EURUSD
• With USD strength in the market EUR is set to fall as well.
• 4hr and 1 hr trend is down so again technically looking for a short play.
• Looking for a break of previous 1 hour candle at 1.3975 for a short play and to play with the trend.
• Again if for what ever reason the USD weakens this am I will only look for a long play back through the MP at 1.4052.
Have a great day.
Dan
Good morning all
Trust you had an enjoyable afternoon yesterday.
The States are off today with 4th July tomorrow so could be very quiet. Lets see as CABLE and EURUSD are setup quite well.
CABLE
• The USD looks set to strengthen with OIL and Wall ST falling.
• The 4h trend and 60min trend is down so technically we should be looking for short plays.
• Everything suggests further weakness with heavy resistance at 1.6388, 1.6426 & 1.6449
• GBP has tested the MP (or just below) three times now at 1.6321.
• We are looking for this to break either today or early next week.
• A break through that last major support should see a solid move towards the 1.6184 level.
• Looking for break of 1.6360 for a move to test previous low.
• If for what ever reason USD weakens and MP holds I will only look for a long play on the break back above the WP at 1.6436
EURUSD
• With USD strength in the market EUR is set to fall as well.
• 4hr and 1 hr trend is down so again technically looking for a short play.
• Looking for a break of previous 1 hour candle at 1.3975 for a short play and to play with the trend.
• Again if for what ever reason the USD weakens this am I will only look for a long play back through the MP at 1.4052.
Have a great day.
Dan
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