It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

Good morning team

Congratulations to Ireland. A well fought victory against the Welsh and a thoroughly deserved Grand Slam.

EUR and GBP are well supported at the moment with a weak USD across the board. If you do decide to go long of the USD and short the EUR and GBP then it should only be short lived.

CABLE
• Broken major resistance to the upside on the 4hr chart.
• The Golden Cross (from last week) showed us GBP strength coming back into the market on the 60min chart. (Study this chart and see how you could have traded it better).
• Resistance at 1.4600. A break here would signal the next push higher.
• The 60min chart suggests a potential triple top is building. Look for short plays with a tight stop if we reach the high 1.4560+ level. Do not trade this short unless we start targeting the resistance level.
• CABLE is trading in an ascending triangle. Look for support off the 60min 20ma until we break through it. Any break of DP at 1.4475 would suggest a test back to the 1.4390 level.

EURUSD
• Similar chart to CABLE.
• Resistance at 1.3740 and a potential triple top building on 60min chart.
• Only look for a short play if you can trade with a tight stop above this resistance.
• Trading in ascending triangle and any break back below support should see the 4hr 20ma targeted as support.

Verdict

• I want to trade with the trend as much as possible but until we break the resistance levels I will have to keep a very firm eye on the reversals (for triple tops).
• The bigger picture is definitely higher in EUR and GBP but we need to wait for breaks and play of the support and resistance levels with tight stops.

 

[danarm]

London Open JPY Notes - Monday 23rd March

Good morning all…..
I hope you’ve all had a nice weekend.

USDJPY-
• Could be supported if holding the WP at 96.00
• Had the cross of 60m 20&50 showing support but still below daily 20
• If it breaks 96.50 then there may be some upside potential but not until then

GBPJPY-
• Has moved nicely but no way to jump in just yet
• With USDJPY now looking decidedly undecided I am waiting for some consolidation although the sentiment is up
• Have an order at 142.10 to go long

EURJPY-
• Looks a bit toppy but can not short just yet
• Need to wait for 60m 20ema to catch up before going long
• Await clear direction from USDJPY before deciding what to do.

Verdict-

Once again we have a conflict of interests between cable/eu and uj.
Liking the look of EURJPY and GBPJPY to the upside but not risking pips without USDJPY confirming
Would entertain a short USDJPY through 95.80


Have a good morning

 

[danarm]

Good morning



We shorted EURUSD from resistance at 25, long on CABLE at break of 95 and shorted USDJPY from resistance at 25.



Overall a good start to the week with over 100 pips in the bank.



Lets build on this and smash our 250 pip week target.



Thanks

 

[danarm]

Looking for EURUSD weakness again this PM.

Ben and a few others short from 1.3620 at DP.

D

 

[danarm]

This EURGBP is working out well...

0.9500 is key resistance as you know. I am loving GBP higher against USD and JPY

Been told this is going to 0.8000 or if not 0.7500...I can only wish!!!!

2 large support levels to break.

D

 

[danarm]

1.4200 key resistance in GBPJPY.

Darryl and a few others are long from break of triangle at 1.3800 level with rolling stop.

This baby has huge potential to 1.6000 but u must buy from support.

Wait for next retracement to support before adding.

D

 

[danarm]

Taken 70 pips from EURUSD.

Will hold 50%. Stop to figure.

Thats me done for the day and off to see my tennis coach.

Whats the chance of my coach looking like Anna Kournikova? If only!!!

See you tom.

D

 

[danarm]

Banked another 25% in EURUSD at 15

 

[danarm]

Ok all out of EURUSD at 1.3485..

A nice 135 pip trade this avo from 1.3620.

Thats def me done.

See u tom.

D

 

[pbalfe08]

Ok all out of EURUSD at 1.3485..

A nice 135 pip trade this avo from 1.3620.

Thats def me done.

See u tom.

D

Well Done Dan,

Although i didnt take that traade, the pips seem to be hard to come by for me lately, seems to be a lot of web pages we can look at to get info, i think i'm gonna scale it down a bit.

Lets hope your tennis coach does look like anna whats her name but i seriously doubt it, thye never do

Enjoy your lesson dan

paul

 

[danarm]

Morning all

I have been talking about this trade for 6 weeks plus...

Look back at yesterdays post at 02.14pm. We had a retracement to the 1.4000 at around 6pm. I added again just above here and then bam we broke resistance and are now trading at 145.00. Thats 700 pips + so far and looking for at least 2000 on this trade. I do know some of you are in this...Lovely!!!

Speak later

Dan

 

[danarm]

Good morning team London

What a morning and boy am I enjoying teaching you all.

It was another controlled day with focus on USDJPY, EURUSD & EURJPY (& Anders EURCHF).

USDJPY – Many short from resistance at 98.45 with stop at 70 level – Est 40 pips profit

EURUSD – Many short from 1.3640 on 5min 123 pullback with stop at 70 level – Est 70 pips profit

EURJPY – Many short from 133.70 with stop above 133.95. – Est 60 pips profit

Overall there were 3 low risk trades on offer. We had 170 pips available to us, in what was a very controlled session. Well done to you all and i am really glad we have made the changes in the room. We are more focused, we pick the right markets to trade and the pips keep on coming in a controlled manor. Well done to Tom who has been with us for 3 ½ weeks and made 220 pips yesterday.

Well done to those who traded GBPJPY and are now up hundreds of pips.

Happy Dan

D

 

[Brabs]

dan could you send me the relevant details/links on how to get involved in the club. Kind regards Paul Braybrooke

 

[danarm]

Hi

Been talking about EURGBP for ages it seems.

Now down at 0.9200. Thats just under 300 pips from entry.

Will this go the whole hog and fall to my target at 0.8000??? I hope so!!!

I have to say i am really glad we made the changes in the room. Hats off to you all and what a core team we have now.

Cheers

Dan

 

[pbalfe08]

eu/gb

Hi

Been talking about EURGBP for ages it seems.

Now down at 0.9200. Thats just under 300 pips from entry.

Will this go the whole hog and fall to my target at 0.8000??? I hope so!!!

I have to say i am really glad we made the changes in the room. Hats off to you all and what a core team we have now.

Cheers

Dan

hi dan,

I also got in on e/g last night at 9374 and put T/P on overnight and hit for 58 pips.

Came into live room and took another short at 9282 adn now stop loss at 9252 and up 60 pips on that, will roll my stop loss down if this goes lower but happy with my stop loss for now.

Funny thing is i dont have confidence but i seem to be putting on my own trades and not putting on trades you suggest although was in e/us this morn for 25 pips, crazy that i dont tkae your advice yet do my own trades, i must be murder to teach to dan LOL.

I am getting my confidence back and shuld have taken the 3 trades this morning but, i dont know, i worry about doing too much and then losib=ng it all but then again like you say, controlled risk.

This forex is challenging, more so on the confidence front really i think, putting trades on is easy, its pulling the trigger

anyway dan, you are the best and a fantastic teacher, you just have to come to the back of the class sometimes and give us slow guys a clip round the ear and demand that we concentarte more, thank god we dont have detention as i would'nt be out of it

Paul

 

[danarm]

Hi

hi dan,

I also got in on e/g last night at 9374 and put T/P on overnight and hit for 58 pips.

Came into live room and took another short at 9282 adn now stop loss at 9252 and up 60 pips on that, will roll my stop loss down if this goes lower but happy with my stop loss for now.

Funny thing is i dont have confidence but i seem to be putting on my own trades and not putting on trades you suggest although was in e/us this morn for 25 pips, crazy that i dont tkae your advice yet do my own trades, i must be murder to teach to dan LOL.

I am getting my confidence back and shuld have taken the 3 trades this morning but, i dont know, i worry about doing too much and then losib=ng it all but then again like you say, controlled risk.

This forex is challenging, more so on the confidence front really i think, putting trades on is easy, its pulling the trigger

anyway dan, you are the best and a fantastic teacher, you just have to come to the back of the class sometimes and give us slow guys a clip round the ear and demand that we concentarte more, thank god we dont have detention as i would'nt be out of it

Paul

Well done Paul...

Yes u r right it is confidence and i am working on building this up for you all.

You say you have lost it but look how you have traded today. Great effort!!

Its all coming together.

Dan

 

[danarm]

PS - Yes detention could be good!!!

 

[pbalfe08]

detention

Oh Dear Everyone,

i think i have opened up a con of worms here but dan being the kind teacher he is he will think twice

paul

 

[danarm]

Apologies for no closing commentary from yesterday, for one reason oranother I drafted it and didn't send it out. The bad news is that Ihave got even more to rant about as I didn't vent my views yesterday.Lets start with the 5th biggest rally in US stocks in history (I wouldhazard a guess that at least 4 out of 10 of the biggest rallies of alltime were in the midst of a bear market). The majority of so calledmarket experts are saying the market rally is down to the Obama/Geithnerbail out plan. Well I am not so sure, I think this is a bear marketrally that was actually triggered by the market being oversold and theQuantitative easing policy that was introduced at the last Fed meeting.In English, and EM is central to this theme and that is the US and othercountries are going to inflate their way out this debt mountain andtherefore avoid a long depression. As for the bailout, the idea is goodhowever there is still a major stumbling block. Its all well and goodsaying that the private investor needs to put in some money with thegovernment/tax payer however I am guessing the private investor is notgoing to lift the offer and I am also assuming the banks will not/cannothit the bid so unless someone ie the government/tax payer is going tocross this bid/ask are we really anywhere near out of this toxic zombiebank type scenario? As I have said I welcome the rally and hope thismess is over however if it is, and many people on CNBC are calling thebottom it means data and economic activity will start to pick up in thecoming months meaning, increased productivity, employment picking up,house prices stabilising and consumer and government debt being eroded.Feel free to join all the sheep but I am not joining the "credit crunchis over party" just yet. Having said all that there is no reason whythis rally can't continue for a little longer as we approach quarter endand then look forward to what should be very good 09 numbers from theBanking sector that may add more fuel to the fire. EM has had a spectacular rally this past week, bonds that you could notget rid of 3 weeks ago are now bid only with more buyers. It shouldn'tamaze me but it does every time, the herd mentality in EM corps isshocking and accounts that were clearly underweight EM and tellingeveryone that its expensive are now piling in to "re balance"portfolios. It also once again is a reminder of how poor liquidity isand how little risk the street is running right now. All I will say isthat if inflation does pick up then EM will benefit. I am still in asmall minority that believes an environment where people have littlecash flow, assets for sale, or huge personal debt alongside governmentsin a similar position means that the deflationary forces will prevailand this scenario is not good for anyone. The good news is that I havebeen wrong many times before and will be wrong again, lets hope I amthis time!

Mr P.........

 

[danarm]

A very quiet London open, with only a few options available to us, so we decided to zone in on EURUSD.

Yes some shorted EURCHF, CABLE, EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDJPY etc but as a group we zoned in on one.

We averaged ourselves in at the 1.3475 with a stop at 1.3505. Well protected and knew support was at the 50 level. Our target was 1.3425 ahead of the weekly pivot.

It took an hour and a half but we made it and locked in 50 pips before the EUR figures.

Well done team London.

Dan