It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

In terms of UK time when's best to check in for the heads up/advice/notes on this thread? TIA

Hi Mr Swan

Notes are posted on here after my live session around 9.00am GMT.

For those in my live session will receive at 6.45am.

The US session starts at 1.30pm GMT and notes will appear in the room at around 1.20pm. The notes will be posted on here after the room finishes at around 3.00pm.

Thanks

Dan

 

[c_c405]

Profts booked today - looking for pullbacks

Closed these trades

Took short on GBP/JPY - stop set 200 above

pic attached

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Popped my head into the afternoon session...

Great trade on GBPJPY and GBPCHF.

That must have been close to 90 pips on each.

See you morning pipsters tomorrow at 6.50am.

D

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Tuesday 24th February

Good morning Team London

DOW fell 250 pips yesterday…We need confidence in this market and I am now wondering where it’s going to come from…

CABLE
• Trying to hold and lots of support in the low 1.4400/50 region
• Strong pullback to the 4hr 20ma but daily 50ma holding as resistance at 1.4575
• 60min chart and trigger suggests small pullback
• 15min chart however suggests up trend still and we should look to buy off 60min 20ma until this MA breaks. The price needs to bounce off the 1.4510/20 level for confirmation that support will hold.
• Look for break back above 1.4575 for continuation of uptrend to DR1 as 1st resistance.
• If the 60min 20ma breaks the 60min 20ma then look for 123 south.
• Look at GBPJPY for help with direction.


EURUSD
• 60min chart shows support line and previous low at 1.2660. A break here would confirm the downtrend
• 15min chart is boxed and could go either way.
• Look for break of support at 1.2700 then 1.2660 or break on the upside of DP at 1.2775.
• Look at EURJPY for help with direction.


EURGBP
• Broken triangle from yesterday as per the blog.
• Below 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma suggesting further weakness is due but this will depend is GBPUSD can rally past 1.4575.
• Look for selling opportunities close to the 60min 20ma but keep and eyr on CABLE strength. Would be good to see EURUSD break 1.2700 to help as well.


USDCAD
• 4hr 20ma looks set to cross the 4hr 50ma. If CABLE can find support look for this to cross with stop behind.
• 15min chart suggests further weakness as well and a break of 1.2465 would signal a break of the DP.
• DAILY 20ma at 1.2428 which will offer support so bank before.





AUDUSD
• 60min chart looks a little mixed and we need to see confirmation of the 4hr 20ma holding for any long play.
• 15min chart suggests short term strength above the 60min 20ma. Look for bounce here at 0.6440 level with stop below the WP.
• Trigger should come into play here.



GOLD
• 60min chart has formed a lower high and triangle is forming.
• With stocks falling like a lead balloon surely GOLD will have another crack above the $1,000 level at some point soon.
• However short term suggests box strategy on the 15min chart.
• Support at$984.00 but more importantly the 4hr 20ma is offering most support.
• This MA was tested yesterday and I wonder if the market would like to test it again. Patience required and wait for 123 if this level is tested.
• On the upside look for 123 off the 60min 20ma.

Thanks

Dan

 

[danarm]

JPY Desk AM - Tuesday 24th February

Good morning all.

Notes for this morning’s JPY & CHF pairs….

USDJPY
• Surely on it’s way back upto 100.00 after a little retracement back to 4hr 20ema yesterday.
• Those in at 92.15 last week are now 300 pips up, so only another 500 to go!!
• Difficult to go long at these levels at the moment and others preferred

GBPJPY
• The beast is back, but with what looks like a potential double top on 60m chart
• Other GBP pairs are looking tired so would expect this to drop back a little
• Quite happy to sit and watch this one having picked up a few nice pips yesterday on the break down through 13800, where it may present yet another shorting opportunity for us
• Keep an eye on cable and USDJPY for confirmation

EURJPY
• A break down through 12700 on EURUSD should see this pair lower and has a similar set-up to GBPJPY
• Although in a strong uptrend it doesn’t look that appealing to just jump into and not looking for a position here

USDCHF
• Looks like it’s found some support after a little flush out
• 4hr and 60m 20/50 directly below and in positive, so with EURUSD looking quite bearish this could be a northerly mover this morning
• Wait for break of 11700

EURCHF
• Looking like a break of 14875 could be the number to look out for here for a push up
• Lots of traffice en-route so not the best looking of charts but might be good for a little 20-30 pip play

GBPCHF
• Would really like to see a short position here but can’t see a decent entry yet
• How much will it fall with EURCHF and USDCHF looking likely to crawl up?
• Might be a play with minimum stakes if GBP weakens across the board, but not one to get carried away with. Others preferred

VERDICT………..

USDCHF above 11700
GBPJPY below 13800

 

[danarm]

A quiet morning with a few trading GBPJPY like true professionals.

Finally GBPJPY and CABLE have broken their respective triangles.

Keep an eye on GOLD, EURUSD, USDCAD and u cant forget the CHFs..

Leading us up to an exciting US Open.

See u in the room.

D

 

[danarm]

New York Open - Tuesday 24th February


Good afternoon all.

Notes for this today’s JPY & CHF pairs….

USDJPY
• Surely on it’s way back upto 100.00 after a little retracement back to 4hr 20ema yesterday.
• Those in at 92.15 last week are now almost 400 pips up, so only another 400 to go!!
• Difficult to go long at these levels at the moment and others preferred

GBPJPY
• The beast is back, but with what looks like a potential double top on 60m chart
• Other GBP pairs are looking tired so would expect this to drop back a little
• Quite happy to sit and watch this one having picked up a few nice pips yesterday on the break down through 13800, where it may present yet another shorting opportunity for us should it fall back through the 60m 20ema.
• Tricky with UJ so bid, even though Cable looks weak

EURJPY
• A big run on the back of EURUSD strength sees this at dangerously high levels for the short term
• Will be looking for short through 12200 targeting WR1 at 12142

USDCHF
• Looks like it’s found some support after but ver messy indeed and cannot see an entry here at all
• Bench material today

EURCHF
• Not looking for anything here after a little falsie this morning
• Looks nice to downside though a little scruffy
• Not interested

GBPCHF
• Broke nicely through the 16800 level for a few points
• Now looks like a short potential on 15m with a stop above the pivot



VERDICT………..
Sterling weakness
GBPJPY below 13800 to 13700
EURJPY below 12200 to 12120

 

[danarm]

USD EUR Desk - Tuesday 24th February

AUDUSD
• 60min triangle forming.
• DP has just broken on the downside and looking for USD strength across the market.
• Watch break of the WP at 0.6435


USDCAD
• USD strength coming into the market
• Watch break of WP at 1.2530 and look for small pullback onto the 60min 20ma.


EURGBP
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma.
• Could go either way with GBPUSD misbehaving today.
• If GBPUSD holds the DP and breaks the Daily 50ma then EURGBP will break back down through the WS1 level.

EURUSD
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and the Daily 20ma on the 60min chart
• 15min chart suggests weakness with the 60min 20ma below the 60min 50ma.
• A mixed direction but a break back above the 1.2790 would signal EUR strength.

CABLE
• Boxed between the Daily 50ma and the MP at 1.4570 and 1.4470.
• Being pulled heavily by GBPJPY which is overbought on the 60min chart.

Verdict

Not a good day for trading.
Technical setups are poor at the moment so patience required.

 

[jel31]

A real day for banking nice and early!

e.g quick 30 pips in EURUSD on the break of DP this morning and 30 pips on CABLE on break of triangle up to previous high. A day to be cautious but a good day all the same...

Cheers Dan see you tom

Julie

P.S. I will try to work out how to attach charts, the above probably doesn't make much sense without some pics!

 

[danarm]

A city trader

There is not much point doing a closing commentary on a daily basisthese day as every day seems to roll into one. Kazakh banks continuetheir march towards a price of zero thanks to continuing uncertaintysurrounding the nationalisation of Bta and Allibk coupled with themargin/stop loss selling I continue to see out of Asia. The short storyis that there is clearly some value in this sector however performancewill not be immediate and it is probably better to get more claritybefore you go swimming without any arm bands. Russia is still the same,treading water on the most part with the odd pocket of buying here andthere. My favourite rating agency downgraded a load of Kazakh andRussian institutions today, dare I say it but Desert Orchid has alreadyleft the stables!The developed world obviously continues to be a mess. As I am writing Iam listening to the latest enquiry/testimony from Capitol Hill. I maybemistaken but it seems to me that no one has a clue how to get us out ofthis mess and bailing the likes of AIG, GM or any there loss makingbusiness is not going to accelerate the recovery process. Every onecriticized the Japanese for bailing out the banks in the 90s but whatis happening right now in my view is much worse and will mean this D&Glasts far longer than it should have/could have had we taken the pain upfront as opposed to spreading it over a longer period of time. Goodnight all enjoy the Champ League games.

Mr P.....

 

[danarm]

A real day for banking nice and early!

e.g quick 30 pips in EURUSD on the break of DP this morning and 30 pips on CABLE on break of triangle up to previous high. A day to be cautious but a good day all the same...

Cheers Dan see you tom

Julie

P.S. I will try to work out how to attach charts, the above probably doesn't make much sense without some pics!

Hi Julie

Well done...I have had a quiet day and tried to force a little trade this afternoon with no luck. No harm done but a frustrating day for me overall. Wanted better setups and they never came.

See you tom and lets get that 60min 20ma back into play again. I dont like trading without him..

Dan

 

[danarm]

Its interesting when you look at trading and work out why you have good days and bad days...

Is it down to your own ability or is it the market? Well being human it is probably a bit of both but i only tend to make mistakes trying to cheat the market (for example trying to find tops and bottoms of markets.) When i am patient and wait for good setups i tend to do vvv well...So should i punish myself when i have tried to beat the market at its own game??? The market was tough today, i didnt like the setups so i shouldnt have entered. Yes there were possibilities as there always are but you cant take every trade and every trend reversal on a 15min chart or a 5min chart..

Remember there is no pressure to trade all day...You are better off waiting for setups that you like and feel comfortable with, rather than jumping in.

The main thing is to keep it simple...You only need 250 pips a week to make a huge success so do you need to trade all day long to make 50 pips on average? No..... As long as you are patient and wait for the correct setups eg trade with the trend and 60min 20ma then the rest should take care of itself...

Look how Julie has made 60 pips today in a tough market. She has made her pips and moved on..That is what it is all about... Get in, get out and move on!!!

Stick to your business plans, dont over trade and make sure you feel comfortable with every trade you take.

Ok speak to you tomorrow.

Dan

 

[jel31]

London Open Notes - Tuesday 24th February


EURUSD
• Look for break of support at 1.2700 then 1.2660 or break on the upside of DP at 1.2775.• Look at EURJPY for help with direction.

Here are those EURUSD and CABLE trades.

Hope you don't mind me quoting you Dan but just wanted to put them in the context of your notes.

Liking the quick in-and-out 30-pippers... break-outs with the trend...

Happy bunny here, really enjoying this trading lark!

See you tomorrow for some more pippaging

Julie

 

[danarm]

Here are those EURUSD and CABLE trades.

Hope you don't mind me quoting you Dan but just wanted to put them in the context of your notes.

Liking the quick in-and-out 30-pippers... break-outs with the trend...

Happy bunny here, really enjoying this trading lark!

See you tomorrow for some more pippaging

Julie

Well traded Julie.

See you tomorrow.

D

 

[danarm]

London Open - Wednesday 25th February

Good morning London…

Bank stocks soared yesterday after Mr Bernanke made the strongest comments yet against nationalizing major Wall St firms… That’s a start!

Its been a tough week so far on the London Open and with the JPY´s powering up with no retracement as yet we need to be very careful of any long plays in GBP and EUR against the USD.


CABLE
• Lower highs on 60min chart with Daily 50ma holding as resistance.
• 4hr 20ma and Daily 20ma holding support so we have a box scenario
• Look for a break above 1.4560 level and stop below the 60min 20ma.
• Problem we have in GBPJPY needs a retracement so be careful.


EURUSD
• 4hr 20ma has crossed the 4hr 50ma for a positive note on the EUR.
• 15min chart shows support on the 60min 20ma.
• 1.2850 on topside would be level to break for a few cheeky pips.
• However EURGBP isn’t great and EURJPY must be getting top heavy at these levels so if EURJPY breaks the 60min 20ma/DP look for the south side to the WP level.


USDCAD
• 60min chart suggests weakness back into the USD and 15min chart shows a small sign of strength.
• Not interested on the upside unless we break the WP at 1.2525 or downside a break of the DP and 15min 50ma around the 1.2425 level.


EURGBP
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma
• Looks weak and if GBPUSD can rally above the 55/60 level look for this to test the 60min 50ma.
• At mom it would be a very tight stop loss above the 60min 20ma.



AUDUSD
• 4hr 20ma crossing the 4hr 50ma which is good for the AUD.
• However there has been an oscillating market over the 4hr 20ma.
• I would like to see support off the 4hr 20ma for a real push through the Daily 20ma and WR1 (previous high) at 0.6550 for a move to the 0.6625 level.


GOLD
• After the cheeky 40 pip play up for Martin yesterday GOLD as expected has broken the 4hr 20ma.
• All uptrends come to an end at some point and the 4hr 20ma had to give in.
• The pullback happened overnight and has since moved down from the $965.00 level.
• Look for pullbacks and sell with the trend until the 60min 20ma is broken again.

Verdict

CABLE looks good for a break of previous high at 55 but GBPJPY could be my curve ball and I need to see this to remain strong.

EURGBP only needs a tight stop above the 60min 20ma for a test down to the 60min 50ma.

AUDUSD holding the 60min 20ma… A tight play with stop below.

Not easy with JPYs overbought. The one thing we do know is that the market is long of JPY and figures from Japan are vvv weak, exports etc. Long term book on JPY´s looks good but short term makes JPYs very hard to trade today.

See you at 7.00am.
Dan

 

[danarm]

JPY Desk - Wednesday 25th February

Good morning all.

It appears I owe you all a couple of beers.
Pop over when you have a couple of hours to kill and the debt will gladly be paid.


100.00 for USDJPY doesn’t seem to be to far away at all now does it?
• In dire need for a pullback but no clear entry above 96.50
• Will be keeping a close eye on this this morning as a break of 60m 20ema will see this a little lower

GBPJPY
• Has just been trickling up but to the tune of over 1000 pips this month
• No chance of buying at these levels so need to either wait for pullback to 4hr 20ema or look for a short to that region
• Dangerous to play above 140.00 but a break of 60m 20ema could see the pivot targeted at 139.00 then maybe more

EURJPY
• 124.00 seems to be the level that needs breaking here but 60m 20ema is at 123.70
• Watch out for USDJPY and EURUSD to confirm

Verdict……….

Not a morning to get carried away and as we have discovered, playing against the trend can be lucrative but can also be highly risky so consider these ONLY if you are ready to pull the plug in an instant if the corresponding pairs do not behave.
Maybe we’re better off sitting on our hands, waiting for the retracements to happen before building long positions.
I like them to fall a bit and will be taking short positions if I get clean breaks.

Have a good morning

 

[danarm]

A great morning Team London... I felt like a kid in a sweet shop.

AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF...

Watch the JPYs. We ignored them this am but getting tempting for pullbacks. Tell me not to play them!!!

See u later.

D

 

[danarm]

New York Open - Wednesday 25th February

Good afternoon all……

Seems like yesterdays little reversal play was fully refunded with GBPJPY through 14000 and EURJPY through 12400. USDJPY not materialised into much yet but not bothered about a 10-20 pip hit. It doesn’t really put a dent in the possible 300 pips available on the former two, so will continue to look for reversals opposed to sitting back waiting for the retracements before going long again.
Not fair if Anders gets ALL the pips. I want my share and you deserve a few too but remember, SMALLER STAKES !

USDJPY-
• Failing to take out 60m 20ema so longer term still intact at the moment
• No news to stimulate until late-on but cannot go long again before 97.00
• Double bottom at 96.35 possible so need to see break of that level for push lower

GBPJPY-
• A nice pullback to pivot and 60m 50sma sees this pair weak with Sterling
• Might push back and re-test 60m 20ema at 14000 but move down happened already and impossible to just jump in

EURJPY-
• A nice break of 12400 has seen this fall 80 odd pips and bounce off WR2
• With EURUSD finding support off the 4hr 20ema and looking messy a continuation down for EURJPY looks unlikely at the moment

USDCHF-
• A mess at the moment
• Needs to break above WP at 11645 for push higher but not looking for anything at all here

GBPCHF-
• Played the break of 16830 after this am’s session down to weekly pivot for a cool 100 or so and really want to go long here at 16700
• Very dangerous so will refrain for the moment with price under all the averages

EURCHF
• Found support off WP after nice fall through 60m 20ema
• Still liking it down IF the averages catch up
• Needs to break 14800 ideally

Verdict…….

Hmmmmmmmmmm, tricky having seen some nice moves. 1m charts anyone??
Joking aside I don’t see any potential in any of these pairs at the moment so will take a look at indices and a couple of other pairs and keep you all posted.

 

[c_c405]

GBP/JPY Short @ 137 taken out - Short again @ 140.89 is up 260 pips

Shorted the GBP/JPY at the peak of this upswing
this zone is a critical resistance zone carefully playing short side - if this high zone reflects GBP will likely fall to previous mid zone of 130.

EUR/JPY short at 124.32 is up 100 pips

Stops moved down to lock in small profits

 

[danarm]

Hi

Yes last trade for me was the GBPJPY for a quick 95... Overall a great day and a few pips made...Well done team.

Very happy with todays pips with controlled trading.

See u tom.

Dan