It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

Cable and EURUSD both broken 60min 50ma....The USD is weak.

Good lesson to learn and remind me again today is to really wait for the direction. What ever the setup, do not enter until u get clear direction on all major's and commodities.

D

 

[trendie]

you have a fixation with CCI.
is there some reasoning why you prefer CCI over any other indicator?
and is there any logic as to the settings?
I understand the principles of a large number to gauge trend, and the shorter CCI settings as pullbacks into the larger trend. I can relate to that.
good stuff.

 

[danarm]

Take a look at the breakouts of the 50ma's...

 

[JTrader]

Take a look at the breakouts of the 50ma's...

Hi danarm

What colour is each of your MA's on the charts? Please can you ID them all?

And whats the rest of the info in the top left corner of your chart?

- EURUSD M5 1.4231 1.4238 1.4225 1.4238

And what does 5M(38) 15M(51) 50M(54) 4HR(57) daily (-128)

Cheers.

 

[danarm]

Ok i am done for now... Lost 20 on Crude on a stupid play looking back. Must remember my rules!!! Please punch me on the nose someone!!!Should have reversed it but felt like a prize wolly!!!

Took 45 on cable and 40 on EUR.

Speak later

 

[danarm]

Arghhh stop beating myself up (Rule 17)...hahha. I knew Gold was going higher... I am a plum!!!

Ok off for a coffee and croissant.

D

 

[danarm]

Ok just go in for 2 last trades... Cheeky but profitable..

Short EURUSD at R1 at 60 to 30 for 30 pips.

Short CABLE at R1 at 60 to 30 for 30 pips.

Thats 60 pips extra..Oh might have jam on my croissant.

Thats 125 pips after a frustrating morning but worked out well. I can breath now!!!

Lovely.

D

 

[danarm]

So pls tell me that someone else likes Gold bars under the bed!!!

Its slowly making a play north.

D

 

[danarm]

Good point

Nice picture... You and Rollingstone def have the best pic's out there!!!

D

 

[danarm]

Hi Danarm

Great thread, thanks for all your posts. It's very insightful following a pro trader trading very difficult market conditions "live". I have studied your charts and comments and as a novice trader am finding everything really helpful.

Thanks too for your sharing your trading rules. Unfortunately I am guilty of being one of those who will sit for hours in front of the pc. Not healthy and not productive, but somehow the charts are addictive, guess I must kick the habit.

Looking forward to hearing more about your rules and any other tips you feel a novice would benefit from.

RS

Dont worry i was addicted to trading and could never sleep when i 1st started...

All of what i am saying is from experience and all i can say is it turned my trading around. trading 20 hours a daya nd being flat after a month is vvv depressing. I now work 3-4 hours and up 100 pips on average. How does that work!!!

Quality of time in my book...

D

 

[danarm]

nice thread!

Thanks 55mph.

You just reminded me of my only 3 pts on my licence!!! I went 34 mph in a 30 mph and got caught by a camera downhill! The little buggers...

Those Robin Reliants are quick u know!!!

D

 

[danarm]

you have a fixation with CCI.
is there some reasoning why you prefer CCI over any other indicator?
and is there any logic as to the settings?
I understand the principles of a large number to gauge trend, and the shorter CCI settings as pullbacks into the larger trend. I can relate to that.
good stuff.

Great question Trendie.

I have used the CCI for a while now and it makes me pips thats all. We could play all day with other indicators and they all work to a degree but i have had more success with the CCI. No particular reason other than that to be honest.

The reason behind the settings is that i like to look at the longer term trend on the short term chart without changing charts... Eg On a 5min chart a 252 CCI is a 60min 21CCI. A 63 CCI is a 15min 21CCI. Works really well i find...

Otherwise people will probably call me crazy but i like it... A friend and I worked on it and it seems to be working well.

Same with the MA's.. I have longer term MA's on the short term charts.

Ok swim time... 30 lengths in my speedo's... They make u go faster. Maybe need one of those all in one outfits thay use in the Olympics. Will break my record hopefully!!!

D

 

[danarm]

Going back to the GOLD chart.

The 4HR still shows we are clearly in a downtrend. I was really looking for a pullback to the Daily 20ma and wont look to go short unless it breaks the 4HR 20ma on the downside. The 4HR 21 CCI is the key to watch here...

D

 

[danarm]

Well i wasn't expecting that... Just checked and i got kicked in at 790.00.

As you all know the Gold is in a huge downtrend at the moment on the 4hour chart. This is what i call my elastic band theory back to the higher ma's. When u have a strong downtrend the market is short and today of all days i have been waiting for a kick back which has now happened.

I said only look to continue going short if it breaks the 4hr 20 ma. As u can see the thick red line never got touched and the trajectory of the 4hr 20ma is perfect in moving towards the 4hr 50ma. This is the squeeze and the result says it all on the 60min chart.

I was ready either way and the north side was the play... The fundamentals agree with why i traded long and finally the technicals have agreed, as u can see from the chart below.

See you tom.
D

 

[danarm]

Hi danarm

What colour is each of your MA's on the charts? Please can you ID them all?

And whats the rest of the info in the top left corner of your chart?



Cheers.

Hi

Can u remind me to do this tom.. I am knackered today. Sorry.

See u

D

 

[danarm]

Worth a read...

I am not sure whether to laugh or cry and I am sure others are feeling
the same way. It is Armageddon out there and aside from a stock squeeze
that may suck a few buyers in I really don't have any good news for you.
I don't really think you need a commentary to be informed that the market
is in free fall, there is literally no bid for corporate cash whatsoever
and spreads are now irrelevant. Curves have begun to invert and the
majority of front end bonds have taken it in on the nose these past few
days as they should do in a crisis scenario. Some people are starting to call the bottom however
unfortunately I think are plenty of people out there who are in denial
need to sell but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Until these guys puke
I am afraid there is not respite for my market any time soon and in
addition we have the small matter of certain local banks having serious
liquidity problems and will sell whatever they can to make upcoming
margin calls. The big wide world is pretty scary, I ask you this what would this
market look like if the Fed hadn't bailed out AIG? Morgan Stanley CDS
trading up front and if it wasn't for Lloyds swooping in who knows where
HBOS would be trading right now. I guess if you want some positive news
at least the oil price is making our Chelsea tractors cheaper to fill up
and maybe our utility bills at some stage will cheapen up too. This
however is drowned out by the wealth destruction that we are in middle
of right now and that's if you are lucky enough to keep your job. What
do the several thousand people from Lehman's do who are out of work and
face a tough search to find another job in this environment? I am sorry
to report this bad news buts its fact everyone made a lot of money
between 02 and 06 and what goes up must come down. Sorry.

(A Bank)

 

[danarm]

The Daily 50ma has just been hit by Gold...

 

[danarm]

Good morning all and welcome to Thursday 18th September.

Well it was a good day yesterday and the markets went into turmoil again and Gold found its support. We will need to watch this london open to see if any retracement happens. I am now flat in Gold and waiting for the next move. I still feel my DOW will break 10,000 and GOLD will hit $1,000 again. Its only a small matter of time. The world is in a bad way unfortunately.

The 63 CCI on teh GOLD 60min is looking like it might cross but today i am seriously going to wait for direction in all markets and not jump in. IF GOLD rises this am expect EURUSD to follow.

If CRUDE finds support off pivot and attacks the upside again then USD weakness will come into play across the currencies. At the moment CRUDE looks very weak on the short term charts but still above the pivot. Dont want to sell into this at the mom so going to be patient. Maybe a 30-50 pt chance later.

GOLD is in that teasing zone. The 5 min could tempt u back in but not confident that the 60min chart has retraced enough. Patience is needed here.

With USD weakness coming back into play CABLE has found support and creeping up... Fundamentally GBP isn't something i am particularly fond of at the moment but technically it needed a pullback on the 4hr. The 126 CCI has now crossed and we are in the pullback zone between the Daily 20ma and the Daily 50ma. Play the CCI's welll here and remember its about momentum on the trades use the shorter CCI to get u in on the main trending CCI.

The USDCHF 4hr play is now on, as mentioned earlier in the week. A nice longer term play, as CHF is always more attractive than the USD and GBP in uncertain times. 1.0800 should be the 1st target looking at the 4HR chart around the Daily 50ma.

Ok good luck and remember to be patient and wait for the moves to show you which way London will move it... We can't tell until that time.

Speak later

D

 

[danarm]

Typical Gold breaks the 60ma and jumps 70 pips....Missed it... Thought that wouldnt happen quite yet..

 

[danarm]

Hi

You all know i like GOLD higher but with such an aggressive move away from the MA's yesterday i do wonder if a small double top will form on the 60min chart and we see a bit of a sell off later on technicals, b4 a push higher either tom or monday.

Keep an eye if and when we get anywhere near yesterdays high at 895, as volatility will increase and a few pips could be made.

Not certain but technicals would suggest that...

D