Is trading Forex as simple as riding a cycle ?

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,299
First question to all FX traders - whether a newbie or a any experienced trader with over a decade of live trading behind them -

Will you be taking new sells on the EU tonight or tomorrow and allowing 100 - 200 - 300 pip stops and after a new target of say 1. 1300 or even 1.1100 ??

Now be honest - I am not worried whether its with $1 a pip or $100 a pip - but it must be on a live account.

Dont worry - you dont have to call it live - lets just hear you plans ??

Why I ask this is because tomorrow could be a very important day for the EU - it might not be - but it could be ?

I hear from this forum 2 opposite views from different experienced traders - ie guys that have been around a bit and probably been in either the Industry or at least trading FX for over 7 / 10 yrs.

One commercial ex member actually quoted - trading FX on a discretionary manual day trading basis is extremely difficult to make monies on an on going consistent basis - in fact near impossible

Another well known member today has said

Trading isn't hard, its the trader that make it hard by over complicated analysis etc etc. All of course IMHO

EU simple scalping, not exactly brain science, just kissed it and followed the PA, you can do this all day long using what ever instrument you wish. All IMHO

Personally - I disagree with both members - but its just like putting a group of economists in a room and asking for an agreement - you would not get it - because they all see it from a different perspective.

I compare forex trading with riding a cycle. Most people can do it - its not that difficult really - or is it ??

I then say if you are forex trading and want to make consistent monies ongoing with a good return - then its not simple or like riding a cycle ( bicycle )

Instead its like riding a Unicycle - whilst blindfolded and juggling 3 balls.

Yes difficult - not impossible - certainly not simple - not quite brain surgery or rocket science - because it is possible to master under 5/6 yrs - were I reckon really you need 10 / 12 yrs plus to even have a chance to get to the levels needed for those other occupations ;-)

Anyway back to the question on a EU trade.

Please let me know your plans - and the I will show you a lot safer and quicker way to make a similar RR on a successful trade that is possible most days - not just once every few months etc - and is a far more efficient way to trade.

Please your opinions - we all have them ;-)

Regards


F
 

Wicked_Daddy

Active member
128 47
I'll share...

I've been lurking/reading for a while now and I'm both fascinated and disappointed in the discussions that go on here. It's suppose to be a place where ideas and knowledge are shared for the analysis and benefit of anyone who would take interest and use discretion in applying other's opinions. But most talk of their system and tease while never actually sharing it. As if sharing a system with other traders is somehow going to upset the balance of the retail trader world and destroy one's "edge". Ridiculous, we're such a tiny piece of the pie. BTW, Captain Currency is a wonderful human. His 3 ducks system, so openly shared, is so simple and executable. It completely validated my system (nice to know I'm not crazy) which follows the same principles. But I digress...

I have been trading equity options for over 10 years and turned full time in early 2014. 3 months ago I transitioned fully to Forex after dabbling in it for the last 8 months. After much research I decided Forex more closely suited my psychological needs and schedule. I am glad to not be battling time decay and the unscheduled utterances of broker analysts. I have applied my tools, with some modification, to the Forex world and have been trading the EU and GU almost exclusively. I am currently tracking to a 82% win ratio. I manage stops and risk very tightly. I don't trade with a huge account but I manage to provide a decent life for my wife and I on what most would say is a beginner's account size. Money management and trade execution within a very disciplined rule structure is my "holy grail". I bet most would look at my strategy as amateur. I use a 50 SMA, 7 EMA, a 14,3,3 Stochastic and an 8,17,9 MACD in 3 time frames (1M, 5M, 30M) to determine trend, short term direction and entry/exit. I also keep a 3H chart open for long term perspective - A 6:1 ratio of the 30M. The only losing trades I have made have been when I disobey my own parameters - trying to out think the pure mechanics of my system.

So why the long intro/explanation? To provide some context and perhaps qualification I suppose. I've never been a broker. I don't have a website. I rarely post in forums and I really don't have an opinion on what is going to happen to this market or that. I just day trade what I see while staying aware of scheduled announcements and other influential news. The EU is pretty flat at this moment in my day so this post intrigued me and I decided to respond.

So to answer your question Mr. F:
I will not be attempting to determine what the outcome of the ECB rate decision is or what Mr. Draghi might say about their short and long term outlook or plans. I will not have a position open with the hopes that I'm right about something that I really know nothing about. There is nothing mechanical about doing that.

I will be sitting at my trading desk, watching my charts and looking for the same buy and sell signals that I always do. I'll probably take a few bites out the volatility of the news but I may not. I may just watch others make and lose money while I wait for the chaos to calm down and get back to a predictable (careful with that word) rhythm.

Trading is not hard. EMOTIONS are hard. As I stated, I would probably have an almost perfect discretionary system if not for MY occasional misjudgment of the obvious signals. I disagree that it's like riding a unicycle blindfolded. There are many tools to help you see. But true, this does require balance and following the rules of the road. Don't ride in the street against traffic, attempting to weave in and out. Stay in your own lane, obey the traffic signals, keep your eyes open and don't try to beat a red light or make it through an intersection before someone else.

Enjoy the ride!
 
Last edited:

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,299
A good read Wicked Daddy - and thanks for sharing your own experiences etc

Off for tea in 5 mins but will come back on a few points etc later on tonight

(y)

Good Trading

Regards

F
 

tokyojoe

Established member
867 287
I'll share...

I've been lurking/reading for a while now and I'm both fascinated and disappointed in the discussions that go on here. It's suppose to be a place where ideas and knowledge are shared for the analysis and benefit of anyone who would take interest and use discretion in applying other's opinions. But most talk of their system and tease while never actually sharing it. As if sharing a system with other traders is somehow going to upset the balance of the retail trader world and destroy one's "edge". Ridiculous, we're such a tiny piece of the pie. BTW, Captain Currency is a wonderful human. His 3 ducks system, so openly shared, is so simple and executable. It completely validated my system (nice to know I'm not crazy) which follows the same principles. But I digress...

I have been trading equity options for over 10 years and turned full time in early 2014. 3 months ago I transitioned fully to Forex after dabbling in it for the last 8 months. After much research I decided Forex more closely suited my psychological needs and schedule. I am glad to not be battling time decay and the unscheduled utterances of broker analysts. I have applied my tools, with some modification, to the Forex world and have been trading the EU and GU almost exclusively. I am currently tracking to a 82% win ratio. I manage stops and risk very tightly. I don't trade with a huge account but I manage to provide a decent life for my wife and I on what most would say is a beginner's account size. Money management and trade execution within a very disciplined rule structure is my "holy grail". I bet most would look at my strategy as amateur. I use a 50 SMA, 7 EMA, a 14,3,3 Stochastic and an 8,17,9 MACD in 3 time frames (1M, 5M, 30M) to determine trend, short term direction and entry/exit. I also keep a 3H chart open for long term perspective - A 6:1 ratio of the 30M. The only losing trades I have made have been when I disobey my own parameters - trying to out think the pure mechanics of my system.

So why the long intro/explanation? To provide some context and perhaps qualification I suppose. I've never been a broker. I don't have a website. I rarely post in forums and I really don't have an opinion on what is going to happen to this market or that. I just day trade what I see while staying aware of scheduled announcements and other influential news. The EU is pretty flat at this moment in my day so this post intrigued me and I decided to respond.

So to answer your question Mr. F:
I will not be attempting to determine what the outcome of the ECB rate decision is or what Mr. Draghi might say about their short and long term outlook or plans. I will not have a position open with the hopes that I'm right about something that I really know nothing about. There is nothing mechanical about doing that.

I will be sitting at my trading desk, watching my charts and looking for the same buy and sell signals that I always do. I'll probably take a few bites out the volatility of the news but I may not. I may just watch others make and lose money while I wait for the chaos to calm down and get back to a predictable (careful with that word) rhythm.

Trading is not hard. EMOTIONS are hard. As I stated, I would probably have an almost perfect discretionary system if not for MY occasional misjudgment of the obvious signals. I disagree that it's like riding a unicycle blindfolded. There are many tools to help you see. But true, this does require balance and following the rules of the road. Don't ride in the street against traffic, attempting to weave in and out. Stay in your own lane, obey the traffic signals, keep your eyes open and don't try to beat a red light or make it through an intersection before someone else.

Enjoy the ride!
Good post
 
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forker

Senior member
2,688 500
I can't get my head around anyone needing stops that large
 
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Fugazsy

Veteren member
3,661 677
I'll share...

I've been lurking/reading for a while now and I'm both fascinated and disappointed in the discussions that go on here. It's suppose to be a place where ideas and knowledge are shared for the analysis and benefit of anyone who would take interest and use discretion in applying other's opinions. But most talk of their system and tease while never actually sharing it. As if sharing a system with other traders is somehow going to upset the balance of the retail trader world and destroy one's "edge". Ridiculous, we're such a tiny piece of the pie. BTW, Captain Currency is a wonderful human. His 3 ducks system, so openly shared, is so simple and executable. It completely validated my system (nice to know I'm not crazy) which follows the same principles. But I digress...

I have been trading equity options for over 10 years and turned full time in early 2014. 3 months ago I transitioned fully to Forex after dabbling in it for the last 8 months. After much research I decided Forex more closely suited my psychological needs and schedule. I am glad to not be battling time decay and the unscheduled utterances of broker analysts. I have applied my tools, with some modification, to the Forex world and have been trading the EU and GU almost exclusively. I am currently tracking to a 82% win ratio. I manage stops and risk very tightly. I don't trade with a huge account but I manage to provide a decent life for my wife and I on what most would say is a beginner's account size. Money management and trade execution within a very disciplined rule structure is my "holy grail". I bet most would look at my strategy as amateur. I use a 50 SMA, 7 EMA, a 14,3,3 Stochastic and an 8,17,9 MACD in 3 time frames (1M, 5M, 30M) to determine trend, short term direction and entry/exit. I also keep a 3H chart open for long term perspective - A 6:1 ratio of the 30M. The only losing trades I have made have been when I disobey my own parameters - trying to out think the pure mechanics of my system.

So why the long intro/explanation? To provide some context and perhaps qualification I suppose. I've never been a broker. I don't have a website. I rarely post in forums and I really don't have an opinion on what is going to happen to this market or that. I just day trade what I see while staying aware of scheduled announcements and other influential news. The EU is pretty flat at this moment in my day so this post intrigued me and I decided to respond.

So to answer your question Mr. F:
I will not be attempting to determine what the outcome of the ECB rate decision is or what Mr. Draghi might say about their short and long term outlook or plans. I will not have a position open with the hopes that I'm right about something that I really know nothing about. There is nothing mechanical about doing that.

I will be sitting at my trading desk, watching my charts and looking for the same buy and sell signals that I always do. I'll probably take a few bites out the volatility of the news but I may not. I may just watch others make and lose money while I wait for the chaos to calm down and get back to a predictable (careful with that word) rhythm.

Trading is not hard. EMOTIONS are hard. As I stated, I would probably have an almost perfect discretionary system if not for MY occasional misjudgment of the obvious signals. I disagree that it's like riding a unicycle blindfolded. There are many tools to help you see. But true, this does require balance and following the rules of the road. Don't ride in the street against traffic, attempting to weave in and out. Stay in your own lane, obey the traffic signals, keep your eyes open and don't try to beat a red light or make it through an intersection before someone else.

Enjoy the ride!
Clear and good post.
 

Jason101

Experienced member
1,366 214
I am just looking at the charts, doing my usual thing, on the daily time frame. Trying to avoid hearing the news, as its just noise. If there is any news bigger than noise, it will find me. For tomorrow I have just tightened up my stops on the relevant trades. I am about to enter an order (to open) to add to a short Eur position for tomorrow. Not because of the ECB but because my trade management, money management and the chart tells me to.
 
Last edited:

tomorton

Legendary member
7,555 1,031
I have a few signals on European pairs but ignoring these until at least close of business tomorrow night, too much risk of a mega-continuation or reversal (or worse, a whipsaw).

Anyway, some of my charts now look stupid, like a flat-topped plateau and a vertical cliff at the east side. Makes no sense and I might stay out of such pairs for months until their charts normalise.
 

Fugazsy

Veteren member
3,661 677
I agree with Wicked_Daddy, trading is easy, mastering oneself is difficult, very difficult.....there is a lot of sh@t down there and the deeper we go the smellier....but it is possible and doable to clear things up.

I only trade the EU on the 1 and 5 minutes, I believe that a 10 pip SL is enough to understand when reading wrongly, I personally use 5 but I carefully take my trades and I give maximum detail to each candle, 1 to 4 trades happen regularly every day in my session (4 hours) and I am happy with 50% wins. Sometime I nail 100% but that is not the norm.
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,299
Its interesting to see how we all look at charts differently. I do want to reply to some of the comments here - but first just a comments on trading.

With regards to the EU - we have just had the third day of a HL's and HH's

In fact since Friday 16th of January price has actually risen from in single entry terms 120 pips from its low - but in terms of 4 days of intraday trading there as been a minimum 10 buy trades giving moves with RR's of over 3 - with one buy today making an RR of between 7 and 12 - depending on the size of your initial stop.

On just those 10 intraday buy trades from Friday to tonight there was approx between 420 and 460 pips to me made and a good intraday trader should make between 40 and 50% of those - ie 180 - 230 pips.

RR wise in total on 10 positive trades at say just 1 % stake - easily over 30 in total - so say 30% increase

Then say you took another 6 buys that did not work and lost you 1% - ie minus 6% off 30% on wins - OK 24% increase on a trading account under a week - going against the main trend.

You would need to be a full time intraday trader - and I understand maybe 95% of FX traders are not full time and so dont have a 8 -12 hr window every day to take trading opportunities.

Similar if you dont like going against the main trend - how about over 200+ pips available on a similar amount of sells over 3 days ??

What will I be doing tomorrow on the EU?

Probably as normal making some buys and making some sells?

Were will it go to in 15 - 20+ hrs time ?

I have not got a clue - but what ever happens I feel confident I will make some money trading it.

Similar I hope all the FX day traders of T2W also so well - whether with the simple methods or with the more complex and safer ones I prefer to use

Good Trading

F
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,299
I'll share...

I've been lurking/reading for a while now and I'm both fascinated and disappointed in the discussions that go on here...............

I have been trading equity options for over 10 years and turned full time in early 2014. 3 months ago I transitioned fully to Forex after dabbling in it for the last 8 months. After much research I decided Forex more closely suited my psychological needs and schedule .............................

So to answer your question Mr. F: ....................................


Enjoy the ride!

Hi WD

I enjoyed reading your comments and will say I have to agree with some of your points etc - but as you might imagine .... not all of them.

FX trading - lets think about it ..........

Between 80 and maybe 90% of all FX retail traders lose money on an ongoing basis - for what ever reasons.

Somewhere above the majority - maybe 60% or even 80% of all retail traders use just simple technical analysis - ie Follow the Trend - stick a few indicators on a chart and try and obtain winning trades with ideally RR's over 2+

In theory - they buy at a low or lower price and sell at an higher price.

They accept going into the "red" on their trades - whether its just a few minus pips - or even 150 pips if their targets are say 500 or 1000 pips.

They expect win ratios of over 40 / 50% and if there RR's are over 1 on winning trades - they make money.

They dont expect to win every day - or even every week - and in some case many accept losing months.

But if trading is simple - and easy - why so many losers in the game ?.

Do they know even if they have a win ratio of over 70% on hundreds of trades - they can still have 10 or 15 consecutive losing trades ?

Do they stick with their rules - never increase their stop size and always exit with over 90 % or even 100% of their target?

Are they aware that all charts showing over 1 hr time frames are different all around the world - giving different patterns depending on your time zone and Broker's set up ?

Are they aware that super computers are setting up patterns and false prices purely to deceive and set a false sentiment ?

No one can predict accurately the future - predicting the next 5 -30 mins is easier on most subjects compared to predicting in 2 days time or 2 week time - ask a weatherman ;-)

Most system and methods out their in FX trading over a period above 2 yrs and 1000+ trades will give 50 /50 results - maybe less than 5% are special

Tests and trials by an American University on over 50 trading indicators - shown the majority are only 50% accurate on over 1000's of trades.

A winning system with a positive ROI over a 3 month period can go on to produce negative results over 6 or 9 months.

Most traders understand money management and compounding and statistics etc - at a simple level - but do they know them at an advance level?

Why do traders stick their stops out of the "noise" - when in maybe 50% of cases it just lead to a larger loss??

I could go on ........

But I dont have to - if trading is simple like riding a cycle - How come the majority don't even make it after 3 yrs ??

Its no good having a say 75% win ratio - and a RR of 2 on all trades but only taking 40 trades a year - I would sooner a win ratio of only 65% - RR average of only 1.5 but have taken 400 trades - or even better 1400 trades a year - why ? - because you would have made more money.

You as the trader - are part of your trading method - just one of the components - like money and a bank account and a computer. Its wrong to place all the blame of failure on just one component surely ;-)

Just my view

I really wish you well and the fact that you are trading FX - welcome your views and thoughts on moves on all pairs

Good Trading

Regards

F
 
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Wicked_Daddy

Active member
128 47
Thanks Mr. F.

You did say you disagree with some of my points but I don't see where exactly. I think we are saying the same things.

Some traders lose money because they rely on indicator(s) to tell them what to do without really understanding how the indicator works. They want the indicator to do all the work while they bank huge amounts of money. I have heard many say how indicators are junk. These same people, in my experience, have had bad experiences with said indicators. I have too. So I kept studying them until I was satisfied with their PROPER purpose and use. I like the ones I use. I understand them and I use them in synergy with each other to determine the strength and longevity of a direction. It works for me.

Even simple candlesticks are an indicator. Those who say they trade naked, with candles, are not really doing so. They are reading candles, which display different behaviors for a given time frame. They are an indicator and about as reliable as any other if not fully understood. True naked trading would be reading a streaming line/tick chart. I'm just not that good I guess.

As a side note:
I've seen your charts and all the regression work you do. It works for you. I personally got a headache trying to figure it out. But you'd probably look at my set-up and wonder what was going on as well. Yes, charts are dependent on the data that creates them. So I build my tools in the package my broker provides, test it exhaustively and then only use that adjusted system with that data. If I had to change platforms/brokers, then I'd start over with whatever they provided.

Some traders lose money because they can't control their emotions of fear and greed. This is probably the biggest reason. Even people with multiple years of trading experience will hang onto a trade to squeeze that last little bit out it, only to have it reverse... or pound their fist on the desk in utter frustration as the trade they just entered rockets off in the opposite direction, causing them to question everything they thought they knew or why the hell they do this in the first place. Been there, done that. Then I review my plan and rules and realize that I am the undisciplined fool that let emotion win. That's when I go walk the dogs.

And then there are those traders that are both: too lazy, anxious or both to take the time to seek knowledge, study, test and practice combined with being emotionally unprepared to follow any rules, if they even have any. I believe this answers your question: why do so many lose?

We live in a world that feeds instant gratification with marketing strategies that exploit our fear and greed. I know this intimately. In my former life as a corporate executive, my specialty was the design and execution of marketing operations. I've worked in all kinds of industries. It's simple: tell people they can achieve something, anything, easily and they will hand over the money without blinking. Easy money, easy health, easy love, whatever... This is why trading systems are so popular and millions are spent on building algorithmic systems that don't really work. The market is driven by humans. Programs are not going to correct that, only attempt to exploit it. Besides, those programs are built by humans, with their opinions and motivations - so the emotion is effectively "built in".

A parallel can be viewed in almost any regard. Let's compare the quest for beauty and health - there is a pill for everything and a million diets. Why don't we just go to the gym and break a sweat, eat correctly and take the time to understand what works and what doesn't? I see so many fat people at the gym. They come and go just like traders come and go. They walk on a treadmill for 15 minutes and then pick up a hamburger, fries and a Coke on the way home. Two weeks into their "life change" they step on the scale to find out nothing has happened. Or worse, they've gained more weight. They give up. Meanwhile, the gym gets to keep the monthly dues. There are countless magazines, diets, websites, pills and guru's that offer a quick solution. Sound like a familiar story, ie; typical trader?

This is human nature. Entire industries are built on our laziness and desire for an easy, fast fix. Of course, there are the 5% or 10% that put in the time and effort to get what they want out of whatever it is they are determined to achieve. Successful traders have put in the effort, tested their systems, paid the dues, broke a sweat and probably shed a few tears as well.

I have been and continue to be a student of the market, committed to my financial health. I am stronger than some, not as strong as others. So I remain dedicated to discovery, learning and the daily test of myself. Like working out...

But I still eat a piece of chocolate cake once in awhile.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,555 1,031
Hi WD

Between 80 and maybe 90% of all FX retail traders lose money on an ongoing basis - for what ever reasons.

F

Why do so many new traders fail - I believe its because they have been led to believe -
1. trading is daytrading
2. daytrading is easy to learn
3. it brings a quick profit so its just like having a daily wage.

I thnk you and Wicked-Daddy are definitely on the same page.
 

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