Is trading Forex as simple as riding a cycle ?

trade2windows

Well-known member
272 76
Its interesting to see how we all look at charts differently. I do want to reply to some of the comments here - but first just a comments on trading.

With regards to the EU - we have just had the third day of a HL's and HH's

In fact since Friday 16th of January price has actually risen from in single entry terms 120 pips from its low - but in terms of 4 days of intraday trading there as been a minimum 10 buy trades giving moves with RR's of over 3 - with one buy today making an RR of between 7 and 12 - depending on the size of your initial stop.

On just those 10 intraday buy trades from Friday to tonight there was approx between 420 and 460 pips to me made and a good intraday trader should make between 40 and 50% of those - ie 180 - 230 pips.

RR wise in total on 10 positive trades at say just 1 % stake - easily over 30 in total - so say 30% increase

Then say you took another 6 buys that did not work and lost you 1% - ie minus 6% off 30% on wins - OK 24% increase on a trading account under a week - going against the main trend.

You would need to be a full time intraday trader - and I understand maybe 95% of FX traders are not full time and so dont have a 8 -12 hr window every day to take trading opportunities.

Similar if you dont like going against the main trend - how about over 200+ pips available on a similar amount of sells over 3 days ??

What will I be doing tomorrow on the EU?

Probably as normal making some buys and making some sells?

Were will it go to in 15 - 20+ hrs time ?

I have not got a clue - but what ever happens I feel confident I will make some money trading it.

Similar I hope all the FX day traders of T2W also so well - whether with the simple methods or with the more complex and safer ones I prefer to use

Good Trading

F

Everybody can call tops and bottoms and woulda,coulda in hindsight , its a bit different when you are in the middle of it
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
Everybody can call tops and bottoms and woulda,coulda in hindsight , its a bit different when you are in the middle of it


EU

7 16 am

Not jumped in scalp buy after hr change - instead want to sell it at either 1592 to 95 area - or if thats not one at 1600 - 03

Got the feeling price then might try and stay above 1570 on pullbacks again

EU

7 26 am

At my first scalp sell area at 1592/3 area - but cannot scalp sells just yet and will leave it to at least 7 32 am if its then set up correctly

Set up on EU was perfect prior to 7 30 am at 7 23 am onwards

Waited - so missed out on first 5 pips - but now within 2 mins made 9 pips and still counting

That was too good to be true (y)



What you mean LIKE THESE TRADE CALLS IN ADVANCE OF EU MOVEMENTS THIS MORNING

(y)
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
Thanks Mr. F.

You did say you disagree with some of my points but I don't see where exactly. I think we are saying the same things.

Some traders lose money because they rely on indicator(s) to tell them what to do without really understanding how the indicator works. ..........................................

Some traders lose money because they can't control their emotions of fear and greed. This is probably the biggest reason. Even people with multiple years of trading experience will hang onto a trade to squeeze that last little bit out it, only to have it reverse... So I remain dedicated to discovery, learning and the daily test of myself. Like working out...........................

But I still eat a piece of chocolate cake once in awhile.

Morning to you WD

There is a lot that I totally agree with you - and some of your comments here I am 100% with.

Trouble is = I still think FX trading to make consistent monies over a period of time - ie 1 yr or 3 yrs - is far from simple - mainly due to "us" the traders pressing the buys or sell buttons.

I have also found out from experience that many system that will work and make a profit on an ongoing basis - can fail enough at certain periods - to throw a spanner in the works and remove a lot of the profit gains.

This mainly happens to very simple systems - that don't have filters.

The filters can be the traders years and thousands of hours of study and experience watching live charts and just generally be aware of something lurking just around the corner in the next hour time frame.

Many experienced trader can be successful at naked trading - BUT - if you can gain an extra say 5 or 15%+ by having a complex system - that gives you personally a better mindset comfort zone - because it does the filtering for you - then surely you go for that complex system

I would ideally prefer my own method 100% automated - but do not have the 100's of thousands or even millions of bucks and years needed to get it to such a high level.

Even then - i would still oversee it - stopping it for news events and switching it off at certain times of the Asian session etc.

To remain in that 5 or 10% of consistently winning FX traders - needs continual fine tuning and so much awareness - yet again personally I dont think its easy - but certain disagree that its not all possible - as a former well known former member here once said.

I get the feeling you will not fail Wicked Daddy - you have all the attributes required - and also know you can do it.

I dont know whether you have had a row of consecutive losses - ie say over 10 trades - but I am sure even if you have - you MM systems and your mindset will and can cope. There is a way to even get around this - and I am sure you will figure it out - if not done already

Good Luck today

All the best

Regards


F
 

spinola

Established member
614 138

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
Wasn't the EU QE leaked out yesterday ?

Via zerohedge ?

Well the interest rate as stayed the same

Not all leaks are correct - many want to paint a false picture or pretend with a good guess

We might find its put off to March for all we know

I love Zero Hedge - but so much stuff is part of the game from how I see it

We will soon find out though

Good trading


F
 

Wicked_Daddy

Active member
128 48
So for those reading this thread and contemplating the same issues of win/loss and the never ending search for expertise, I offer the following piece of info I found this morning to be quite revealing...

My brokerage offers a bunch of tools and educational videos as well as an on-going live stream of advice and insight from their group of FX strategists. They even have a signals service you can sign up for that will pretty much tell you what to do so you can "follow the experts". I'm not going to divulge who they are because that is both unimportant to this lesson and I don't need any flack from my brokerage. Besides, I like their tools and service, the rates are decent and I think they attempt to provide more than most. I also think most brokerages provide similar services.

Today, while the EU was finding its way into a rhythm, I visited the trade signals page of my brokerage. They (the brokerage) are new to me and I was curious. It had a list of previous, closed trades. So I took a sequential 20 trade section of the total displayed - a random sampling of the expert's picks. This included many different pairs, shorts and longs. I did a quick analysis of their success rate and here is what I found out of this block of 20 trades:

Profitable trades: 8 (40%)
Losing trades: 12 (60%)
Total pips earned: 564.6
Total pips lost: 663.9
Net pips: -99.3

To be fair, I went back and chose a different 20, then a combination of the 2 sets with some overlap. The results each time were in the same ballpark as above. Some of the losers were really big too, as if there was no stop protection. But perhaps the stops were just set really deep.

The moral of the story? These strategists are suppose to be experts, pros that the novice and more advanced traders should learn from. Their picks should be above the 75% success rate and their money management should be tighter than a frog's butt. Clearly, that is not the case. Why? Honestly, I could not say. But I'm also not that surprised. They are humans anyway, with emotions, and judgement flaws, etc. They make great instructional videos though. Perhaps it's a "Do as I say, not as I do" proposition.

But don't be dismayed, as if you'll never be successful at trading if even the pros can't get it right. Every year my wife and I pick the winning teams each week during the NFL football season and we keep score against each other. The winner at the end of the season gets bragging rights on being the house football expert. She kicked my butt this year. ESPN has a page during the season in which a dozen or so "experts" pick the winners each week as well. These guys are sports writers, sports newscasters, former coaches, players, etc... Experts. Every year since we've been playing both my wife and I have done better at picking winners than, almost all of these experts (there is one guy who really knows his stuff). There is a computer that makes picks as well based on every available statistic. We always do better than the computer. Experts?

So it always come back to the same thing that has been said in many books, this forum and etc.: Be responsible for your own learning. Listen, read and absorb. Seek truth. Test that truth. Test everything until confident in what you have learned is effective. Then execute without doubt while looking for changes that require adjustment and testing. Choose how you will acquire your wisdom. There are 3 ways:
- By reflection, which is the most noble
- By imitation, which is the easiest and least fruitful
- By experience, which is the most bitter

Good luck. But more importantly, good trading.
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
So for those reading this thread and contemplating the same issues of win/loss and the never ending search for expertise, I offer the following piece of info I found this morning to be quite revealing...

..........

The moral of the story? These strategists are suppose to be experts, pros that the novice and more advanced traders should learn from. Their picks should be above the 75% success rate and their money management should be tighter than a frog's butt. Clearly, that is not the case. Why? Honestly, I could not say. But I'm also not that surprised.
But don't be dismayed, as if you'll never be successful at trading if even the pros can't get it right.


So it always come back to the same thing that has been said in many books, this forum and etc.: Be responsible for your own learning. Listen, read and absorb. Seek truth. Test that truth.

Good luck. But more importantly, good trading.

Morning WD

Its only 9 00 am in the UK and basically I have achieved my daily target in last 2 hrs and so relaxing for a bit before doing some more trading a little later in the day.

I maybe can answer some of the questions you have raised regarding so called experts and pros and the actual industry etc

Your comment - Seek truth. Test that truth



I spent at least 3 yrs at the start of my journey doing exactly that. The trouble is this money market industry contains both the cleverest people in the world - and also the biggest liars and crooks. Lies and deceit is all part of the "game".

Why in earth would the industry want retail / non trade people to know the real truth and the best ways to actually make money from trading ?

Its like 2 countries or groups at war with each other - helping each other to fight and be better than they are - its just not in their interest.

So commercial pro's and experts - whether employed by Banks or Brokers etc - why should they want to give accurate forecast to Joe public etc ?

The initial effect on me on my learning stage was to think - well if these guys with all their knowledge and experience cannot be more than 50 -60% accurate - I am not going to do any better surely?

At that time I did not really understand that we are playing 2 different games - retail V commercial - and they are chalk and cheese. If I was dealing with a multi million capital account - everything would be different - and I would be delighted to make say 25 or 40% per annum ROI

But when you are retail playing with accounts under $100k - or in most cases under $10k - its not worth all the effort and risk and time to just make 25% per annum - why do It - stick your money in better safer investments. You need 20%+ per month - not per annum ( but not ongoing compounding )

Now I look upon myself as a fx retail short term Intraday "expert" simply because I am - I have done the time ( over 10k hrs on Live charts ) done the study ( 13 yrs) done the trades ( 17K + this year ) - and I can basically follow nearly every pip over a short amount of time and works on super tight stops and make RR trades of over 3 in under 10 mins.

Why - oh why - did no commercial expert or pro - tell me this is possible 10 yrs or even 5 yrs ago ???????

Because - Why would they !!

Next point - why guess and try and be a fortune teller ??

Trade in the "now" not speculate what might happen tomorrow or next week or next month - you need large stops - you waste time - its inefficient.!!!!

Its a shame - but instead of disliking dodgy FX vendors etc - and yes I have wasted some money with some early on - I just dislike the whole blooming industry - its stinks - its corrupt - but then - I make money from it - so I must be as bad as them ;-)

Rant over - :)

Good Trading to you and please love to hear more about your FX journey and hows it going etc


Regards


F
 

Jack o'Clubs

Experienced member
1,554 342
interesting posts on here. FWIW no professional investor (buyside) implicitly trusts broker forecasts either (sellside). Caveat emptor.
 

scholfield

Established member
993 233
Nice posts, Wicked Daddy.
Me and 7 or 8 short-term trading experts trade on the FTSE livecall thread most days (although we trade anything, really. FX, oil, indicies etc)
Would welcome your views/input/analysis over there - I imagine you have wisdom to impart
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
I have just been reading on some other threads - all related to what happened with the SNB and that 3500+ pip drop - that many traders really think FX trading is unsafe and still like being in the "wild west".

I have witnessed quite a few "Black Swan " events over my 13 yr journey - but what happened on January 15th was really like a very rare event - on fact the last time the market moved that much in just a few hrs was like 3 decades ago.

OK - we can get on major election days - 500 - 1000 pip moves - but normally over 2-6 hrs not like in less than a hour and even then it would not be quite completely out the blue.

Its important that you cannot lose more than you capital account - whether thats $5k or $50 / $100k - and many reputable ECN brokers who are UK regulated cover that and also keep your capital in segregated accounts - which are then guaranteed by the FSA compensation scheme.

Also there are key times in the day to be aware or ready for any sudden BS ( Black Swan ) events.

I have been caught a few times over the years on spikes going say 25 pips against me - but normally if you play safe - dont risk more than 2% of your capital in the market at one time ( under 1% on larger retail accounts)and can intraday trade at the "coalface" - you can be in and out under 20 mins - and have no concern what might be around the corner.

There are safer ways to take a punt if you are more of a gambler - but if you are an experienced "sniper" who takes as many precautions as possible - then you are generally Ok

Take for example today - I have been selling the EU - but have also scalp bought on 4 occasions during the last 7 hrs. Its against the main trend of down - but 2 of my trades made me over RR's of 2 and i was finished on one of them in a"safe period" in under 7 mins.

You can never be 100% safe in any business. You can insure some risk and take additional precautions - ie keep banking you profits if you have enough capital etc. Set up a trust - put money in your childrens names etc - "ringfence" yourself - there really are so many ways - but many you would never read about etc.

Do your homework - - there is lots of money to be made in the FX markets its just such a shame 80 -90% of all retailers never get their hands on it

Regards

F
 

trade2windows

Well-known member
272 76
I have just been reading on some other threads - all related to what happened with the SNB and that 3500+ pip drop - that many traders really think FX trading is unsafe and still like being in the "wild west".

I have witnessed quite a few "Black Swan " events over my 13 yr journey - but what happened on January 15th was really like a very rare event - on fact the last time the market moved that much in just a few hrs was like 3 decades ago.

OK - we can get on major election days - 500 - 1000 pip moves - but normally over 2-6 hrs not like in less than a hour and even then it would not be quite completely out the blue.

Its important that you cannot lose more than you capital account - whether thats $5k or $50 / $100k - and many reputable ECN brokers who are UK regulated cover that and also keep your capital in segregated accounts - which are then guaranteed by the FSA compensation scheme.

Also there are key times in the day to be aware or ready for any sudden BS ( Black Swan ) events.

I have been caught a few times over the years on spikes going say 25 pips against me - but normally if you play safe - dont risk more than 2% of your capital in the market at one time ( under 1% on larger retail accounts)and can intraday trade at the "coalface" - you can be in and out under 20 mins - and have no concern what might be around the corner.

There are safer ways to take a punt if you are more of a gambler - but if you are an experienced "sniper" who takes as many precautions as possible - then you are generally Ok

Take for example today - I have been selling the EU - but have also scalp bought on 4 occasions during the last 7 hrs. Its against the main trend of down - but 2 of my trades made me over RR's of 2 and i was finished on one of them in a"safe period" in under 7 mins.

You can never be 100% safe in any business. You can insure some risk and take additional precautions - ie keep banking you profits if you have enough capital etc. Set up a trust - put money in your childrens names etc - "ringfence" yourself - there really are so many ways - but many you would never read about etc.

Do your homework - - there is lots of money to be made in the FX markets its just such a shame 80 -90% of all retailers never get their hands on it

Regards

F

As always you read but nothing registers in that head of yours...

Even using your 2% or in your case a max of 7 pip stoploss risking 0.5% .So when a 3500 pip spike happens within the 20 minutes you are trading in and gaps down so your stop loss is no use ,you would lose your whole account and then some

7 pips = 0.5 %
1400 pips = 100%
2800 pips = -100% ..You now owe your broker all your demo money
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
As always you read but nothing registers in that head of yours...

Even using your 2% or in your case a max of 7 pip stoploss risking 0.5% .So when a 3500 pip spike happens within the 20 minutes you are trading in and gaps down so your stop loss is no use ,you would lose your whole account and then some

7 pips = 0.5 %
1400 pips = 100%
2800 pips = -100% ..You now owe your broker all your demo money

If you really had a brain and also could read - you would be not so dangerous.

I cannot be ar*ed to explain and tell you how you are missing some thing and how that 3500 pip move in under a few hrs as NEVER happened in the previous 3 decades.

If you know anything about probability and odds and not trading exactly at the 2 main times - Black swan events might happen during the main trading day - then you would understand

Unfortunately - if you are not an experience pro or even better retail FX expert - than you will just not have a clue what I am on about

Please other members - i am never rude or obnoxious to 99% of members - just the Dumb and Dumber crowd

Try and have a good weekend and get your eyes tested at Specsave - so you can read properly my threads - instead of taking so many things out of context - a bit like a pro disser or hater really- you and your mate Scholfield are really my fodder - but you are both great entertainment ;-)

Good trading - by god you two need it

F
 

trade2windows

Well-known member
272 76
If you really had a brain and also could read - you would be not so dangerous.

I cannot be ar*ed to explain and tell you how you are missing some thing and how that 3500 pip move in under a few hrs as NEVER happened in the previous 3 decades.

If you know anything about probability and odds and not trading exactly at the 2 main times - Black swan events might happen during the main trading day - then you would understand

Unfortunately - if you are not an experience pro or even better retail FX expert - than you will just not have a clue what I am on about

Please other members - i am never rude or obnoxious to 99% of members - just the Dumb and Dumber crowd

Try and have a good weekend and get your eyes tested at Specsave - so you can read properly my threads - instead of taking so many things out of context - a bit like a pro disser or hater really- you and your mate Scholfield are really my fodder - but you are both great entertainment ;-)

Good trading - by god you two need it

F

No ,you said play it safe with 2% or 1% risk and be in and out of a trade within 20 mins and you will be ok ...That is wrong like i said but you think if you just deflect your ignorance and write so much the same things over and over and write so much in each post that people cant see through you
 

scholfield

Established member
993 233
No ,you said play it safe with 2% or 1% risk and be in and out of a trade within 20 mins and you will be ok ...That is wrong like i said but you think if you just deflect your ignorance and write so much the same things over and over and write so much in each post that people cant see through you

you really should look at the thread where he's getting all confused trying to discuss trading with shakone and random! It's hilarious. It should be a 'sticky'
Anyone whose read that thread knows exactly how much of an 'expert' he actually is!! :cheesy:
He's so dim and every single thing they said flew over his head!! :LOL:
 

scholfield

Established member
993 233
PS - F, Did you bring my name into this because you were angry at my making a little joke on yur thread about talking to yourself for 50 ood posts!!??
lol - I thought you had thicker skin than that! I'm sorry I upset you so much.
If it upsets you, i think you need to think about WHY there is so little interest in your threads.
For example, If people thought you were a genuine expert, there'd be so so much interest and everyone would be firing questions at you non-stop and wanting to learn.
Makes you think....the devil is in the details ;)
 
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