Is this the right time to invest in shares of Asia-Pacific Countries?

[james_smart]

I think the shares of Asia-Pacific Countries have gone up more than the market fundamentals. Particularly the shares in Indonesia, Malaysia and Chine have almost doubled from year low 2009. So according to my assessment there is not enough scope left to invest in such countries. What is your view?

 

[meanreversion]

Long term the trade has to be sell West/buy East, but how or when you get into that trade is another matter. I'm bullish on all stocks, I think there is plenty of upside yet to come, especially with the jobs data starting to improve.

 

[jimmyjunaidi]

I think, for long-term investor, Indonesia is the best place to be in Asia.
Now the stock market is more than tripled from the bottom of the GFC.

Indonesia is different to other Asian countries. We relied more on domestic consumption than export.

Long term the trade has to be sell West/buy East, but how or when you get into that trade is another matter. I'm bullish on all stocks, I think there is plenty of upside yet to come, especially with the jobs data starting to improve.

But, If you want to invest for 1 or 2 year only (from today, 5/Jan/2011), US is the place.
There is momentum for US companies in 2011 (my personal opinion of course).




I'm an Indonesian, so I know very well about my country. Don't listen to crap saying inflation is high.
Inflation is lower (getting better) now compared to inflation in 2006.
6-7% inflation in Indonesia is normal.
The only problem with Indonesia is the slow bureaucratic process and a particular religion hard-liner. Because the complicated bureaucratic, government policy often very slow, but that's better than government keep messing around disrupting the market, free market no government is better for money.

For the terrorism problem, don't worry, we have one of the best anti-terrorism police in the world (according to time magazine) killing every terrorist.


What worry me that makes me invest some of my asset in US is China.
I'm worried something bad would happen in China soon. Bad things in China would surely hit Indonesian stock market. China is emerging market, Indonesia too. One emerging market get hit, foreign money would rush to get out of the other market.
But, if you are talking about very long term(>10 year), Indonesia is the place to be (for your money) in Asia.

 

[Ross S]

Thank you jimmyjunaidi for your comments about Indonesia. I have always been concerned that there will be a crisis in China at some point and it could happen with little warning. Due to the level of international trade any major problem in China will devastate all countries in the World for 3 reasons

1 Almost all products have some components made in China and a serious disruption of the supply chain will be critical

2 China is very quietly financing the West (It has the Cash and the West has the Debt and is offering good interest rates) so there could be greater liquidity problems in the West

3 There will be an unprecedented level of uncertainty. Any weakness in Financial / Economic / Corporate structures will result in their failure, which could possibly bringing down a second tier of businesses or countries. An uprising in a country with no opposition leaders might result in a prolonged period of chaos. I do have a lot of faith in the Chineese people and think they will sort themselves out faster than we might think - but this will be after the damage is done to the World Markets.

 

[thejoblesstrader]

If you look at china's main index, the shanghai composite SHCOMP, you will not have made much money if you bot he index. the same goes for Hong kong's Hang Seng index.

Having said that, I am having one of my greatest quarter this year. The reason for that is because China and HK's indices are capped by the heavy weights, which are the chinese banks and chinese property developers. that is why the index is not moving. However, there are many small/mid caps not on the index that are trading at new highers.

Some of my favorite names are the moment include: 1928 (Sands China; like Las Vegas Sands but only the business in Macau), 3331 (makes toilet paper), 1766 (railway), 269 (timber)

 

[tomorton]

It always seems like the time to buy shares was about 3 years ago, and never in the market / sector where you actually did buy shares then.