Is there anyone out here who's successful in Technical Analysis

[7thSignalTrader]

Trade the flow, that's it. Don't trade the funny pics

Ah, back to the "Trend is your friend," anti technical slogans. Yes, I remember it well. So nice to see that sentiment is still just as flawed as it always has been.

There is no such thing as a "Trend." There are only Trajectories. And, until such time as the "flow" traders out there realize that, they will continually get whipsawed without fully understanding why it is happening to them.

Fx data has a very unique signature attached to it. With the right tools, you can see very clearly - crystal. With the wrong tools, or no tools at all, you will forever see "trends" that do not exist.

The objective?

1) Isolate the dominant trajectory
2) Adjust your limit within the range of the dominant trajectory
3) Set your stop (if you trade with one) outside the range of the dominant trajectory
4) Know they MFE/MAE ratio per signal type, or classification
5) Optimize your limit level using a density probability for a strike on the MFE
6) Integrate your Money Management directly into the historical accuracy of your system
7) Define a time range for doubling your capital then Loop-back to #1


The alternative?

- Guess at which direction the fundamentals will move the market
- Guess at entry and exit levels
- Guess at hold decisions
- Guess at revenue generation over time
- Guess at whether or not this business if for you
- Leave the business believing that a trip to Vegas would have been more fun

The reality?

- Good research solves problems
- Good technical development and a systematic approach grows capital
- Good indicator development and engineering leads to solid trading systems
- Creative thinking outside the box of convention yields a lasting career as a trader
- Adopting the attitude that failure is not an option promotes an attitude of success

The proof?

- Standing the test of time. Will you still be here in 10 years as a successful trader, or will trading forums have become your social hot spot in lieu of a real life?

 

[7thSignalTrader]

Yeah look, i wasn't trying to make an argument or anything like that, sorry if i came across that way. Just the way i interpreted your original reply was that i thought you were saying fundamentals were nonsense, and pure TA is the only way.

Cheers,
AT

All technical analysis includes all fundamental inputs by definition and logical extension - they are baked in.

So, if you are a Technical Trader, you are likewise a Fundamental Trader as well. Like it or not - that's how it works.

 

[NVP]

technical analysis is the only way you can win in trading. the banks pay millions to get news first, so you cant win being a fundamental trader (although you can take an educated guess sometimes). the problem you will face is what technical analysis wins more times than it loses. even if you get the higher win ratio then you must make sure your risk/reward is then adhered to.

but Fundamentals and News move the markets.......

 

[NVP]

Ah, back to the "Trend is your friend," anti technical slogans. Yes, I remember it well. So nice to see that sentiment is still just as flawed as it always has been.

The proof?

- Standing the test of time. Will you still be here in 10 years as a successful trader, or will trading forums have become your social hot spot in lieu of a real life?

why are they mutually exclusive ?

N

 

[NVP]

Ah, back to the "Trend is your friend," anti technical slogans. Yes, I remember it well. So nice to see that sentiment is still just as flawed as it always has been.

There is no such thing as a "Trend." There are only Trajectories. And, until such time as the "flow" traders out there realize that, they will continually get whipsawed without fully understanding why it is happening to them.

Fx data has a very unique signature attached to it. With the right tools, you can see very clearly - crystal. With the wrong tools, or no tools at all, you will forever see "trends" that do not exist.

The objective?

1) Isolate the dominant trajectory2) Adjust your limit within the range of the dominant trajectory
3) Set your stop (if you trade with one) outside the range of the dominant trajectory
4) Know they MFE/MAE ratio per signal type, or classification
5) Optimize your limit level using a density probability for a strike on the MFE
6) Integrate your Money Management directly into the historical accuracy of your system
7) Define a time range for doubling your capital then Loop-back to #1

Hey there

I really like that phrase.....and I have been meaning to debate "Trend" on a few threads recently.......and its definition and purpose

To me a "Trend" is just one pattern formation that is part of a larger group of patterns representing a "significant" price movement in a Market or even dare I say Trajectory as you term it above

lets take 2 price points - ( A & B) measured by a rolling X bar differential

(5 bars,10 bars ,20,200, 500....whatever)

To me the main questions are :-

what is the current value between the 2 points ?
is its value significant enough to merit a trade ? (ie above defined parameters)
Is there any pattern history to support continued directional trajectory (trend)
Are there fundamentals / News events supporting this that will continue ?

and then trade...... experienced people here will see this is a darvas box......or even a Donchian Channel.............whatever to me its 2 points in time and the difference in price at that point...........but the edge is still the other factors such as the pattern that got to that signal !

TRO (the rumpled one) talks about a simple 1 Bar system where he just trades when the Bar exceeds a certain set value...........and thats it !

N

 

[Mike Kshemaraja]

Interesting topic.

 

[NVP]

Interesting topic.

and better than debating the other 95% of the threads here

 

[forker]

The simpler the strategy, the easier it is to find consistency in using it. I wish I knew that when I started, probably would have been to naive to understand though

 

[TraderNumber7]

Is there anyone out here who's successful in Technical Analysis

You can be very successful with Technical Analysis, but it depends on what kind of TA you use, and most importantly, HOW you use it.

Here is how I use mine:

CFx Awareness Video III: Strontium Bot Initial Eval - YouTube

The key to technical trading can be summed up in those four (4) super critical words. You can't trade successfully for very long going against them - so you might as well learn how to trade with them.

 

[TraderNumber7]

To me the main questions are :-

what is the current value between the 2 points ?
is its value significant enough to merit a trade ? (ie above defined parameters)
Is there any pattern history to support continued directional trajectory (trend)
Are there fundamentals / News events supporting this that will continue ?

Those are some pretty good summary evaluations. You left out multiple time frame conformation and indicator correlation. Those are two additional power cords that need to be plugged into a good "trajectory" based model.

There are all kinds of price and indicator multi-time frame synergies out there, that point to a particular "trajectory." You just have to build the tools that can detect them, that's all.

Another trick is to take the Dominant Trajectory of a smaller time frame, and look for Directional Divergence the Dominant Trajectory of a larger time frame. That's a high probability baseline for building an algorithm that meets the needs of your ROI per trade requirement (assuming you trade with a money management system tied to overall trading performance that way I do).

Its insight like that which makes all the difference.

TRO (the rumpled one) talks about a simple 1 Bar system where he just trades when the Bar exceeds a certain set value...........and thats it !

The underlying theory is sound, believe it or not. The problem with the way TRO goes about things, is that he does not yet understand the importance that Timing, Direction, Magnitude and Probability, have with respect to ALL entries. And, until a trader develops an understanding of how those four (4) giants should come together at the point of "entry," its going to be difficult to maintain long-term consistency. TRO, would be wise to make this subject a serious study.

Speaking of TDM&P - you just might find this somewhat interesting:
CFx Awareness Video III: Strontium Bot Initial Eval - YouTube

The site will be up soon and it is for educational, non-commercial purposes only.