is the commodity boom a bubble?

[Sluggy]

In your view, is it a bubble or not? And why?

 

[TWI]

It is a trend based on supply demand and lack of infrastructure investment but withing that trend there is a boom/bust cycle or put another way up legs and retracements. It does not take too much work to find supply demand analysis of the major commodity markets and whether we have a Global recession or not, it will not stop the overall trend of too many people requiring too few available things. Interestingly fresh Water is very much much in this category now also.

 

[tomorton]

Any trend is a bubble - if you're not in it.

 

[TWI]

tomorton, how very true, I like that observation.

 

[nine]

It is a trend based on supply demand and lack of infrastructure investment but withing that trend there is a boom/bust cycle or put another way up legs and retracements. It does not take too much work to find supply demand analysis of the major commodity markets and whether we have a Global recession or not, it will not stop the overall trend of too many people requiring too few available things. Interestingly fresh Water is very much much in this category now also.

The question might be how deep the burst can be.

Also, in most parts of the world fresh water has different characteristics to most commodities because its value is so low compared with transport costs (tap and commercial water, not yuppy bottled water).

 

[shadowninja]

Any trend is a bubble - if you're not in it.

 

[Sluggy]

According to Soros it is a bubble. Bloomberg.com: Worldwide