Is it time to Buy Gold ?

TWI

Senior member
2,536 254
Gold has recently gone through another gutting of all but the hard core gold-bugs. May be time to load up.
 

PeterTT

Member
87 1
twalker .. I have been adding to my longs recently. I like this trade at these levels. It really is a play for a weaker USD. I think the recent correction to the USD is over, so all the precious metals and base metals should benefit over the next few weeks.
Peter
 

TheBramble

Legendary member
8,394 1,170
Don't know about 'load up' TW.

If you're looking at a weekly chart I guess you're looking for a longer-term investment rather than short-term speculation.

Iraq, US budget deficit - vast and growing, dollar in long-term decline, interest rates low and inflation on the way up. All good long-term signs for Gold.

However, benefiting equally from all these factors is Silver. On top of that, there are a significant number of reasons why Silver could be poised for even better long-term performance.


Last year was the 15th in a row where demand outstripped new supply (which means inventories are being depleted). Low prices have discouraged new exploration and production. Much of the current shortfall in the current Silver market is met by China who have a lot of the stuff left over from when they operated a Silver standard. They sold 56 million ounces last year alone. On current figures, China has only 2-3 years at that rate left. We probably wont have to wait until 2006/7 to see that factored into Silver's price.
 

TWI

Senior member
2,536 254
I posted a weekly chart because the fact that it is starting to look bullish is more significant than daily.
I agree regarding Silver but the volatility there is high. The recent collapse was pretty frightening, it is regularly moving 5%+ in one day.
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
twalker said:
I posted a weekly chart because the fact that it is starting to look bullish is more significant than daily.
I agree regarding Silver but the volatility there is high. The recent collapse was pretty frightening, it is regularly moving 5%+ in one day.

I am bullish too! Fundamenatlly (long term) fort all reasins The Bramble mentions but also short term I think gold will retrace its recent decline from the double top in $430's.
The medium term concerns me! It would surprise me, based on charts, if gold will make new highs anytime soon. In stead I expect new lows before the next mahjor bull rally will take gold up to new highs.
I am long, targetting $400-410, stop at $375 (will probably raise stop later today!)
 

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BBB

Experienced member
1,071 3
Buy Gold by gum!?

naaaa.

Based on the chart alone, Id be looking to go short. Why? Well, word on the street says that as 'posh' (common strumpet) spice's career hits a new all time low, she plans on selling all her bling-bling. This means that there will be a glut of poor-taste designer gold trinkets hitting a market near you. Watch out.
 

bracke

Experienced member
1,286 12
BBB

I like the humour, just had a good laugh. Lets hope the unsold cd's dont come on to the market as well!

Regards

bracke
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Immediate concern about gold is apparently that gold OI is dropping while prices are rising. Keep those sell stops tight!!
 

bracke

Experienced member
1,286 12
bgold

gold OI?

Regards

bracke
 

bracke

Experienced member
1,286 12
frugi

"open interest" Is that a technical term, if so what does it mean.

Regards

bracke
 

bracke

Experienced member
1,286 12
frugi

Thank you for your reply and the link.

The link showed a table part of which appears illogical, perhaps you can clarify.

price: falling volume: falling open interest: falling interpretation: market strengthening

How can the above scenario be interpreted as market strengthening, surely it is weakening.

Regards

bracke
 

TWI

Senior member
2,536 254
Quite simple,
Increasing OI and Volume suggest market is behind it as new positions being initiated.
If Volume increases but OI decreases assume positions being closed so move less likely to continue.
That is rationale anyway, not sure how it works in practise as personally have not paid much attention to it.
For Gold should think there has been recent volume increase and OI decrease due to all the longs getting out during the decline. I suspect the last few days has seen new longs become established however.
 
 
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