Is any one willing to help (forex)

[Johnny Nevada]

My system of trading has rarely failed me, but over the past 5 to 6 weeks I've taken a beating. In most scenarios, my trades have been stopped-out only to then come back and hit my original profit targets.

Can anyone, is there anyone who is willing, to help me in my situation?--or at least point me to the right resources?

Attached is a screenshot of my latest chart. I would most sincerely, most appreciatively, give my thanks to those who are willing to help.

Thank you in advance.

Most respectfully,

J.

 

[UKtradergirl]

My system of trading has rarely failed me, but over the past 5 to 6 weeks I've taken a beating. In most scenarios, my trades have been stopped-out only to then come back and hit my original profit targets.

Can anyone, is there anyone who is willing, to help me in my situation?--or at least point me to the right resources?

Attached is a screenshot of my latest chart. I would most sincerely, most appreciatively, give my thanks to those who are willing to help.

Thank you in advance.

Most respectfully,

J.

Without knowing your strategy, and at a guess, it sounds like you are getting beaten due to volatility. Work on either tightening up your entries considerably, or use larger stops to ensure you don't get taken out (and perhaps bigger profit targets too- dependent on your current strategy of course).

 

[Johnny Nevada]

Thank you kindly UKtradergirl. To clarify, my strategy is to wait for a break-out, buy on a pull back as it approaches the nearest support/resistence level. Then, set my stop loss 20 pips behind at a resistance/support level. My target is usually 20 or so pips beyond the break-out candle. I understand that it is difficult to get a grasp of my trading methodology based on completed charts. I appreciate your feedback.

 

[chilltrader]

maybe just chill out for a few weeks till the markets get back to "normal"?

or maybe just practice some strats using a demo account...

 

[porph]

Use a slightly wider stop loss?

 

[Paddington_Bear]

Hi there Johnny, I love break out strategies; however, I usually wait for the candle to close before I enter the trade. The candle you where looking at broke a previous swing high and the market was making higher lows and higher highs at the time. Granted, it was only a rally, not a change in the trend; however, I doubt I would have taken a pull back strategy on the breach of a previous swing high before the candle even closed. Instead I would have waited for the next swing high and traded the close below the previous swing high. Stop loss would go above the action and a target of the last swing low at about 121.000. Gives you a bit more bang for your buck.

I understand that a lot of people will disagree with this method; however, it works for me -- I like price action.

Best of luck with your future trades.

 

[shadowninja]

Since you're working on price being at a specific level, this requires a calm market. There's been a hell of a lot of volatility lately which means you either stop trading until it settles down (who knows when?), widen your stops, learn to read the market for a better entry or trade a different security.

 

[Atilla]

My system of trading has rarely failed me, but over the past 5 to 6 weeks I've taken a beating. In most scenarios, my trades have been stopped-out only to then come back and hit my original profit targets.

Can anyone, is there anyone who is willing, to help me in my situation?--or at least point me to the right resources?

Attached is a screenshot of my latest chart. I would most sincerely, most appreciatively, give my thanks to those who are willing to help.

Thank you in advance.

Most respectfully,

J.

Based on your charts that entry pos looks like a long shot to me. I assume you went short...

CCI moving up. MACD moving towards 0 cross-over indicators in mid-flight and rising suggesting long direction.

Don't know what price you went in at but that candle stick has risen. If I were to draw trendlines top and bottom looks like a symmetric wedge triangle to me. So I would trade in which ever direction it breaks out of and in this case it looks like a long to me.


Hence, I don't understand why you went short in the first place?

 

[Johnny Nevada]

Chilltrader: Thank you for your advice. I know the markets have been highly volatile lately and I would like to just sit on the sidelines for a while—and may do so. I will take your recommendation into consideration.

Porph: I do notice that if I were to take a larger stop-loss on all of my most recent trades I would have been able to ride my trades into profitability. However, I will need to reduce my risk/reward ratios to facilitate this transition and even re-calibrate my trade plans. I’ll take this into consideration. Thank you for your input.

Paddington_bear: I apologize that without a graphical representation, I’m finding some confusion in your explanation. I do understand your core concepts, however. I do agree with you, in hind sight, that the proper stop-loss would have been above the swing high of 123.90. However, at the time, I thought that the price shouldn’t take out the next high of 122.45. Obviously I was wrong. I’ve been fairly consistent at calling direction, but my stop-losses have been useless over the past couple of weeks. I’ll attach the last trade I took prior to this one as an example. Thank you for your comment.

Shadowninja: I’ve noticed the increased volatility as well. It is unhealthy for my account. I will take your advice into consideration and look for other currency pairs. Unfortunately, I solely trade the forex, so I cannot look at commodities or other futures or indices at this time. I must stick with currencies. Thanks.

Atilla: Thank you for your input. Like you, I also see a symmetrical triangle. The difference is that your analysis doesn’t support a short entry and mine does. It looks like I may have been wrong while you are right. My methodology of trading has been fairly decent in pointing direction, but I’ll admit that it is not correct 100% of the time. I believe that, as other posters have pointed out, increased market volatility has been taking its toll on me.

 

[Paddington_Bear]

Hi again Johnny,

I agree, my explanation would be confusing without charts. I’m just so used to talking to myself like that! (The next stop: Crazy Town -- that’s another story).
For the time being lets talk about the last chart: EUR/USD.

I should warn you that I rarely use MACD or CCI; therefore, I am not going to base my analysis on them.

Could you explain why you entered the trade at the point you indicate? From what I can see a swing high occurred at about 6.00; however, in my opinion the market was still in a relatively strong down trend: the market is making lower highs and lower lows. In my opinion there is no indication that there is going to be a change in the trend. The market is again just making a rally.

The change in the trend, according to my methods, occurs at about 14.00, when price moves above 1.23500; however, I would probably not enter a trade until the pullback at 16.00; this is when price pulls back from a swing high and can be seen to be in a new trend.

Sorry if my answer is humongously confusing: I’m useless at describing trades!

 

[Johnny Nevada]

I'm feeling a bit better today. The most prevalent advice I've received here was to widen my stops due to market volitility or just stay out of the market until it calms down. But, yeah, who knows when that will be? I re-entered the EUR/JPY today and rode it all the way back down to my "original" profit target from yesterday. I knew the price would eventually back down to that target, but this market volitility is a bit intense and I didn't initally expect to see such a pull-back. Attaced is a graph of my trade.

Thanks everyone for your advice. :cheesy:

 

[Johnny Nevada]

Hi Paddington,

Thanks for your response. Regarding the EUR/USD trade, I think the times are different on our charts. That is, a 16:00 hour candle is a 14:00 candle on my chart. I believe I see the candles to which you are referring though. As for that trade, it was going quite well in the beginning until the US came out and said they were going to put a hold on the bail out package. Every other currency fell through the floor, but the EUR/USD trade hung in there. Unfortunately, it just couldn't take the pressure of wall street falling (increasing dollar strength) and price dropped, took out my stop-loss and immediately rebounded straight up to my target. I lost a lot of hair that day (from pulling it out).

I originally got in the trade on a pull back after I saw a swing high taken out with no divergence in the CCI/MACD. I did fail to recognize that I happened to take that trade against the daily pivot which may have caused the trade to stall. Hmmm... I will see if I can create a visual chart to explain my analysis. It may make more sense that way. Verbally describing analysis is not my strong point eiter.

Thanks again.