Iran War and the Impact on Oil

[Atilla]

Strait of Hormuz Iran’s ‘permanent asset’, will be defended with ‘full strength’: Lawmaker

A senior Iranian lawmaker describes the Strait of Hormuz as the Islamic Republic

www.presstv.ir

Iran Ready for Any Scenario of Conflict With US - Foreign Ministry

Iran is prepared for any scenario in its conflict with the United States, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday.

sputnikglobe.com

Trump Says 'Not Open' to Any Concessions After Iran's Latest Peace Proposal

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he was "not open" to any concessions after receiving Iran's latest peace proposal.

sputnikglobe.com

Iranian Army Threatens to Open New Fronts If US Aggression Repeated

Iran's military will open new fronts in the event of renewed aggression by the United States and Israel, Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said on Tuesday.

sputnikglobe.com

IRGC Navy says more ships transiting Strait of Hormuz under its coordination

The IRGC says some 26 ships passed the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours leading up to noon on May 20.

www.presstv.ir

U.S. Seized Another Iranian Oil Tanker

The United States military had seized an Iran-linked oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal reported on...

southfront.press

War beyond the region: IRGC vows to bring enemies to absolute ruin if Iran faces new aggression

The IRGC says the US and Israel have failed to learn from repeated major and strategic defeats at the hands of the Islamic Revolution.

www.presstv.ir

US, Israel must find way out of ‘quagmire’ sooner for their own sake: Iran FM spokesman

The United States and Israel must take responsibility for the war they started and find their own way out of the quagmire, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman says.

www.presstv.ir

Trump’s Iran brinkmanship: The secret behind six retreats

TEHRAN - President Donald Trump has once again backed down from his threat of military action against Iran, as US officials cited by The New York Times acknowledged that Iran’s “successful resistance” and “enormous resilience” have complicated Washington’s war aims and strengthened Tehran’s...

www.tehrantimes.com

IRGC Says 26 Vessels Passed Through Strait of Hormuz Over Past Day

wenty-six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, the naval forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Shares Footage Of Strike On Ship Violating Blockade

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on May 20 released video footage showing a strike on a vessel that it...

southfront.press

There is talk about the US maintaining the blockade on the straits for good few months, with their objectives being to cause supply shortages and suffering to make Iran accept their daft total surrender such that a puppet regime can be implemented with a view to syphoning Iranian oil by US corporations.

The other side of the coin is maintaining the fleet and all the costs entailed with troop changes and morale on the US power. With elections nearing and Trump's popularity falling, how long can the US public sustain support if any for this futile war started by Israel?

All at the same time as benefitting both Russia and China because, oil flows at higher prices and China is not really affected in any meaningful way. On the contrary relations between Russia and China further improving along with trade.

US has badly calculated gains and losses in this war and at the same time Israel led by Nethanyanu has clearly become the genocidal sick man of the globe.

This is a very good article which captures World Wide opinion on the US and Israel imho. Outside of the biased and highly controlled media in the West. Worth reading.

The US, Israel and the normalisation of scandal

Thanks to Netanyahu and Trump, scandal is now our new normal - call it 'Everythinggate'.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

IRGC Navy coordinates safe passage of 31 commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz

The IRGC says 31 commercial vessels have safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours in coordination with its Navy.

www.presstv.ir

US Navy Lacks Capacity to Reopen Strait of Hormuz by Escorting Ships

The United States Navy lacks the capacity to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by providing escort services to ships through the contested waterway, US Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle said on Thursday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Declares 'Controlled Maritime Zone’ In Hormuz

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) announced on May 21 that there will be a “controlled maritime zone” at the...

southfront.press

Iran Is Discussing Permanent Hormuz Toll With Oman

Iran is discussing with Oman how to set a permanent toll system that will formalize its control of maritime traffic...

southfront.press

Iran Ceasefire Nears Its End

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be nearing its end, with both sides exchanging attacks in...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

IRGC Navy coordinates safe passage of another 35 ships through Strait of Hormuz

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has announced that it coordinated the transit of another 35 ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.

www.presstv.ir

US-Israel attack ‘flagrant’ breach of UN Charter, not merely ‘unnecessary war’, Iran tells Germany

Iran tells Germany that the unlawful US-Israel attacks against the Islamic Republic were not merely an unnecessary war but a blatant act of aggression against a sovereign state.

www.presstv.ir

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/526677/Is-Trump-s-diplomacy-a-ruse

Remains Of Emirate Suicide Drones Found In Iran

The wreckage of drones made by the United Arab Emirates have been found in Iran, providing yet another evidence that...

southfront.press

Iran War Wiped Out 20% Of U.S. Combat Drones

Iran has destroyed more than two dozen MQ-9 Reaper combat drones of the United States military since the start of...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iran Strait Talk – The Professors Are Lying To You​

Iran, US Moved Closer Toward Resolving Differences - Foreign Ministry

Iran and the United States moved closer toward finding ways to resolve their differences, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Saturday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran, US moving closer to finalizing memorandum of understanding: Baghaei

Iran says its views are converging with the United States on a 14-point memorandum aimed at halting the US-Israeli-imposed war, unlocking Tehran’s frozen assets, and ending American maritime piracy.

www.presstv.ir

Israel In Panic Over ‘Very Bad’ Deal With Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convening coalition party leaders and Israeli security chiefs for a discussion on the deal...

southfront.press

Military Situation In Iran On May 23, 2026 (Map Update)

Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir met with Iranian President Masoud Pezzekian, Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi in Tehran;CBS News, citing several sources, claimed that the Trump administration is preparing for a new round of attacks against Iran;

southfront.press

 

[timsk]

It appears that, once again,Trump has been talking to the imaginary Iranian diplomats in his head and, according to him, a peace deal is all but agreed and will be announced in a day or two. Doubtless, he told family and friends before the markets closed on Friday that he'd be making this announcement over the weekend so they could short Brent Crude in the expectation that the market gaps down on the news on Monday. Whereupon, said friends and family duly bank their profits and say thank you Mr. President.

Needless to say, the real Iranian diplomats no nothing about this deal and when it becomes obvious to all and sundry that the Strait of Hormuz is no nearer to being open next week than it was last week, oil prices will, inevetably, shoot back up. How many times have we seen this play? Hopefully, I'll be proved wrong this time and there really is a deal and this complete shit show will come to an abrupt end. But I won't be holding my breath.

If my pesimistic prediuction proves to be correct - buy the dip. Daily chart of Brent Crude, below.

 

[timsk]

. . . It appears that, once again,Trump has been talking to the imaginary Iranian diplomats in his head and, according to him, a peace deal is all but agreed and will be announced in a day or two. Doubtless, he told family and friends before the markets closed on Friday that he'd be making this announcement over the weekend so they could short Brent Crude in the expectation that the market gaps down on the news on Monday. Whereupon, said friends and family duly bank their profits and say thank you Mr. President. . .

Well, Trump's family and friends will be disppointed by the opening gap down, currently trading a paltry $5.00 below Friday's close.

Assuming no news emerges from official Iranian channels suggesting that a peace deal is being brokered, price will start to rise and the (small) gap will get filled in the coming days. Time to get back in if you've been stopped out or, if not, to add to your existing long position.

 

[timsk]

A 'nail on head' assessment of the current state of play from the ever excellent Prof. John Mearsheimer. Enjoy . . .

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/526748/Trump-in-Netanyahu-s-Grip

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/24/769210/IRGC-reports-increased-transit-rates-in-Hormuz-with-33-ships-passing-in-24-hours-

Pezeshkian: Iran ready to assure world it is not seeking nuclear weapons

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran is ready to assure the world it is not seeking nuclear weapons.

www.presstv.ir

Iran stands alone against worlds tyrannical powers, humiliated US and Israel: Hezbollah chief

Hezbollah leader says the Islamic Republic of Iran managed to humiliate the US and Israel and stands alone as a defiant force against the world’s tyrannical powers.

www.presstv.ir

Leader’s strategies for Persian Gulf, Hormuz Strait to ensure future of region: Top general

A senior Iranian military commander says Ayatollah Khamenei’s strategies for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will shape new regional and global order.

www.presstv.ir

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/24/769217/Iran-Rezaei-NPT-blockade

Trump Vows to Maintain Naval Blockade of Iran Until Deal Signed

US President Donald Trump on Sunday said that the United States will maintain the naval blockade of Iran until a deal is signed.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Could Withdraw From NPT If US Attacks Persian Gulf - Official

Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and break the naval blockade if the United States invades the Persian Gulf or "commits any aggression" against the Strait of Hormuz, Mohsen Rezai, a member of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council, said on Sunday.

sputnikglobe.com

US-Iran Deal Calls for 60-Day Ceasefire Extension - Reports

The US-Iran agreement, which could be signed soon, calls for a 60-day ceasefire extension, Axios reported citing a US official.

sputnikglobe.com

Military Situation In Iran On May 24, 2026 (Map Update)

According to unofficial information, Iran and the United States are approaching to a memorandum of understanding agreement and ending the war;The US CENTCOM claimed that the number of forced diversions of commercial ships has reached 100 as part of the US naval blockade of Iran;

southfront.press

Red Lines in Water: Iran Removes Strait of Hormuz From Memorandum With US

The issues of managing the Strait of Hormuz are not included in the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, they will be resolved by the coastal countries, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran says US talks focus on ending war, not Hormuz management or nuclear issue

Iran says indirect talks with the US are centered on ending aggression on all fronts, stressing that nuclear issues are not part of the negotiations.

www.presstv.ir

Military Situation In Iran On May 25, 2026 (Map Update)

Iranian air defenses shot down a drone over Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz;Iran's Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati traveled to Qatar to discuss the release of blocked assets and as part of the economic commission negotiations;

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Zero-sum terminus: Iran’s roadmap to ending the war on its terms vs. America’s choice between bad and worse

Iran demands a definitive end to the imposed war on its terms – before any discussion on the nuclear issue – while a strategically defeated US has no options but to accept Iran

www.presstv.ir

Iran has no trust in US; frozen assets release red line for any deal: Source to Iranian agency

“Even if an initial understanding is reached, it does not mean Iran has changed its view of America or that it trusts the current administration to fulfill its obligations,” the source said.

www.presstv.ir

US Confirms Strikes in Iran During Ceasefire — Reports

US Central Command confirmed that American forces carried out strikes in southern Iran, claiming they were conducted in “self-defense.”

sputnikglobe.com

IRGC Accuses US of Violating Iranian Airspace, Warns of Retaliation

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused the United States on Tuesday of invading the country's airspace, adding that Tehran reserves the right to retaliate.

sputnikglobe.com

Hajj message: Leader invites Muslim nations to shape new regional order, says US era is over

The Leader urges Muslim countries to deepen cooperation and shape a new regional and global order beyond American dominance.

www.presstv.ir

US aggression in southern Iran fails amid ceasefire breach: Reports

US forces launched unprovoked strikes on sites in southern Iran on Monday, targeting areas near the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas.

www.presstv.ir

If attacked, Iran’s response will be ‘more severe’ than previous wars, military spokesman warns

Shekarchi warns that Iran has renewed its target bank and is ready for war.

www.presstv.ir

Deadly U.S. Strikes Hit Iranian Boats, Drone Shot Down In Response

United States and Israeli strikes hit Iranian vessels south of the Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, killing “several...

southfront.press

Technology achieved amid war enabled Iran to down 210 enemy aircraft: Defense Ministry

Acting defense minister says Iran made major breakthroughs in air defense technology during the joint US-Israeli war.

www.presstv.ir

Military Situation In Iran On May 26, 2026 (Map Update)

A tanker was attacked 60 nm east of Muscat. Crew are safe but some bunker fuel has discharged into the...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

IRGC Navy: 25 ships transited Strait of Hormuz in past 24 hours under its protection

The IRGC Navy has once again demonstrated its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, successfully escorting 25 commercial vessels through the vital waterway in the past 24 hours.

www.presstv.ir

Iranian President Says Ready to Finalize Efforts Toward Ending Conflict in Middle East

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday told Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani that Tehran is ready to complete work to end the conflict and tensions in the Middle East.

sputnikglobe.com

Lessons of war: Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear sovereignty define Iran’s inviolable red lines today

After failed US military aggression, Iran’s non-negotiable Strait of Hormuz sovereignty and nuclear capability serve as existential pillars, with negotiations aimed solely at proving the American war lever is permanently broken.

www.presstv.ir

Military Situation In Iran On May 27, 2026 (Map Update)

Iran released the footage of wreckage of a US MQ-9 drone that was shot down two days ago;Iran released the footage of an F-35 fighter jet that was reportedly repelled by Iranian air defenses;The US Navy has quietly begun limited operations as part of a new phase of the so-called Project Freedom...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

‘Stern warning’: IRGC announces retaliatory attack on US base following American aggression

The IRGC warns the enemies that it will give decisive response to any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic.

www.presstv.ir

Iran vows proportionate response to further US provocations after Bandar Abbas strike

An Iranian deputy foreign minister says Iran will respond proportionately to any continued provocations by the US.

www.presstv.ir

Deal Reportedly Reached With Iran But Trump Wont Sign It

Negotiators from the United States and Iran have reached a draft 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and...

southfront.press

Military Situation In Iran On May 28, 2026 (Map Update)

Iranian army allegedly launched four drones at a US oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz;The US army attacked targets near Bandar Abbas city;Iran attacked US bases in Kuwait with several short-range ballistic missiles in retaliation for the US attacks near Bandar Abbas.

southfront.press

 

[timsk]

The Oil Trade
Price is currently trading around the $95.00 mark, having drifted lower in the last few days due to a possible MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) to kick the can down the road for another 60 days. The Trump administration is just trying to buy time as they can't work out how to to get out of the bind they're in. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. There's no deal on the table that both sides can agree to (U.S. and Iran) and, even if there was, Isreal would scuttle it long before it was signed. As things stand, Israel is in a much worse position now than it was before the war started, as their power and influnce is on the decline while Iran's has skyrocketed. Iran is far more likely to emerge from all of this as the regional hegemon, and the lesson leaned by Isreal's enemies is simple: get a nuclear weapon asap to stand any chance of being left in peace. You can bet your house that's exactly what Egypt and Turkey will do - or are now doing. So, Isreal's only optiuon is to keep the U.S. war machine's nose to the grindstone and continue with the war in the (vain) hope that Iran collapses under the bombardment. They will exert maximum pressure on the Trump administration to force that outcome, using the 'Three Bs' (blackmail, bribery and blow jobs).

So, what about the price? If a MoU is reached in the coming days, price could well fall lower. But, only temporarily. Why? For two reasons. Firstly, as already stated, the fundamental issues remain unresolved. Secondly, the ceasefire is in name only. As we've seen, it's been broken loads of times already and Israel has intensified its attacks on Lebanon which the Iranians have insisted - and will continue to insist - must form part of any long term peace agreement. So, when the cracks begin to widen and when the horse trading reveals yet again just how far apart the U.S. and Iran really are, price will rise substantially. Aggresive traders will add to their longs; more conservative ones will sit on the sidelines to see if/when and how the MoU plays out and if the Strait of Hormuz is properly re-opened and starts to operate normally. That's highly unlikely IMO but, if it were to happen, price could drop back down to the lower support level of $80.50. As much as he'd like to, Trump can't kick the can down the road indefinitely, the Iranians won't allow it and will force his hand. It's at that point when price will shoot back up from whence it came: $120.00 or higher.

Daily chart of Brent Crude, below.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Chief negotiator: Iranian missiles win concessions, talks just make US understand

Iran

www.presstv.ir

Iran, Oman FMs discuss administration of Hormuz Strait in ‘very productive’ call

The Iranian and Omani foreign ministers discuss the future administration of the Strait of Hormuz based on sovereign responsibilities and international law.

www.presstv.ir

Dell signs $9.7 billion Pentagon contract following Trump’s stock purchase

A $9.7 billion Pentagon contract awarded to Dell Technologies has reignited scrutiny over President Donald Trump

www.presstv.ir

Iran shoots down trespassing US drone near Bushehr: Report

Iranian forces have shot down an American drone violating the Islamic Republic

www.presstv.ir

US Spending on Operation Against Iran Exceeds $95Bln - Tracking Data

The United States has already spent more than $95 billion on its military operation against Iran, despite the announced ceasefire, data on the Iran War Cost Tracker showed on Friday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran says no final understanding with US yet, rejects Trumps language of must

Iran

www.presstv.ir

Without Iran’s signature, Trump’s claims amount to wishful political messaging, not breakthrough

Trump’s claims of a breakthrough with Iran amount to unilateral political messaging rather than an agreement, as Tehran maintains that no deal exists until its conditions are met and a mutually accepted text is formally endorsed.

www.presstv.ir

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/526847/From-Epic-Fury-to-Fake-Victory

Iran Says Nuclear Deal Depends on US Ending Excessive Demands

Iran's final agreement with the United States depends on Washington abandoning excessive demands and contradictory actions, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said on Friday, citing the country's top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi.

sputnikglobe.com

Trump Says He Will Make Decision On Iran Within Hours

United States President Donald Trump said on May 29 that he is entering the White House Situation Room to make...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iran Parliament to vote on Hormuz Strait management plan soon

An Iranian lawmaker says the Parliament will soon approve legislation formalizing the Islamic Republic’s management and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

www.presstv.ir

Iranian Army destroys intruding Orbiter drone over Qeshm Island

Iranian Army air defense units have intercepted and shot down an intruding Orbiter drone in the skies over Qeshm Island.

www.presstv.ir

Iran’s Defense Ministry to establish drone support center: Spokesman

Iran

www.presstv.ir

Trump betraying diplomacy for third time, Leaders advisor warns

Mohsen Rezaei, a senior advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, has warned that Trump is betraying diplomacy in favor of war for the third time.

www.presstv.ir

UAE Joined War On Iran In Its Very First Days

The United Arab Emirates launched dozens of strikes in Iran in the first days of the American-Israeli war on Iran,...

southfront.press

American Wounded, Drones Damaged In Recent Iranian Strike

An Iranian missile strike on an air base in Kuwait wounded several American troops and seriously damaged two MQ-9 Reaper...

southfront.press

Iran says IRGC Navy to control all Strait of Hormuz traffic ‘with full authority’

Iran’s highest operational command unit warns that the country’s Armed Forces will give a response to any military interference in the Strait of Hormuz.

www.presstv.ir

Russia, China Will Enjoy Special Terms for Hormuz Strait Passage - Iranian Committee Head

Russia and China will enjoy special terms for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

U.S. Attacked Another Ship Attempting To Reach Iran

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on May 30 that its forces in the Gulf of Oman enforced “blockade...

southfront.press

Military Situation In Iran On May 30, 2026 (Map Update)

Iranian ballistic missiles wounded five US military personnel at the Ali Al Salem Airbase, according to US media;Iranian air defenses shot down a hostile drone over Qeshm island;The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) warned that the level of...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iran To Get Broad Hormuz Powers Under Deal With U.S.

Iran’s state TV on May 30 released details of what it said was an unofficial draft of the Islamabad memorandum...

southfront.press

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/31/769581/IRGC-Navy--28-commercial-vessels-cross-Strait-of-Hormuz-in-24-hours-after-obtaining-permission

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/31/769585/UAE-shut-down-Iran%E2%80%99s-Red-Crescent-hospital-in-Dubai,-froze-assets

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/31/769587/Iran-restores-gas-producton-South-Pars-filed-output-suspended-Israeli-attacks-

Iran Resumes Production at 3 Offshore Platforms in South Pars Gas Field - CEO

Iran has resumed gas production at three offshore platforms in the South Pars gas and oil field in the Persian Gulf that it shares with Qatar, Pars Oil and Gas Company CEO Touraj Dehghani said on Sunday.

sputnikglobe.com

White House Expects Clarity on US-Iran Deal by End of Next Week – Report

The US administration believes that clarity on a deal with Iran may come by the end of next week, the Axios news portal reported on Sunday, citing a senior White House official.

sputnikglobe.com

US 'Slowly But Surely' Getting Close to Very Good Deal With Iran - Trump

US President Donald Trump said that the United States was now "slowly but surely" getting close to a very good deal with Iran, but if it didn't happen, the US would return to military action.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Will Not Make Strait of Hormuz Subject of Bargaining - Senior Lawmaker

Iran does not intend to make the Strait of Hormuz the subject of negotiations or bargaining, Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament's committee on national security and foreign policy, told Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

Military Situation In Iran On May 31, 2026 (Map Update)

The IRGC Navy announced that over the past 24hrs, 28 vessels have transited through the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining the necessary permits from Iran;The IRGC announced that early this morning, an American MQ-1 drone was hit and destroyed by advanced air defense systems;

southfront.press

 

[Atilla]

The Oil Trade
Price is currently trading around the $95.00 mark, having drifted lower in the last few days due to a possible MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) to kick the can down the road for another 60 days. The Trump administration is just trying to buy time as they can't work out how to to get out of the bind they're in. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. There's no deal on the table that both sides can agree to (U.S. and Iran) and, even if there was, Isreal would scuttle it long before it was signed. As things stand, Israel is in a much worse position now than it was before the war started, as their power and influnce is on the decline while Iran's has skyrocketed. Iran is far more likely to emerge from all of this as the regional hegemon, and the lesson leaned by Isreal's enemies is simple: get a nuclear weapon asap to stand any chance of being left in peace. You can bet your house that's exactly what Egypt and Turkey will do - or are now doing. So, Isreal's only optiuon is to keep the U.S. war machine's nose to the grindstone and continue with the war in the (vain) hope that Iran collapses under the bombardment. They will exert maximum pressure on the Trump administration to force that outcome, using the 'Three Bs' (blackmail, bribery and blow jobs).

So, what about the price? If a MoU is reached in the coming days, price could well fall lower. But, only temporarily. Why? For two reasons. Firstly, as already stated, the fundamental issues remain unresolved. Secondly, the ceasefire is in name only. As we've seen, it's been broken loads of times already and Israel has intensified its attacks on Lebanon which the Iranians have insisted - and will continue to insist - must form part of any long term peace agreement. So, when the cracks begin to widen and when the horse trading reveals yet again just how far apart the U.S. and Iran really are, price will rise substantially. Aggresive traders will add to their longs; more conservative ones will sit on the sidelines to see if/when and how the MoU plays out and if the Strait of Hormuz is properly re-opened and starts to operate normally. That's highly unlikely IMO but, if it were to happen, price could drop back down to the lower support level of $80.50. As much as he'd like to, Trump can't kick the can down the road indefinitely, the Iranians won't allow it and will force his hand. It's at that point when price will shoot back up from whence it came: $120.00 or higher.

Daily chart of Brent Crude, below.

View attachment 347064

You are right again old bean, news coming out Iran has left the negotiation table as US is not interested in negotiations and Israel continues to grab Palestinian and Lebanese land.

Negotiations are just time wasting and re-arming period so it seems.

France not happy with what's going on in Lebanon.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

‘Every choice has a price’: Speaker Qalibaf warns US, Israel over naval blocakde, Lebanon carnage

The Iranian Parliament speaker warns the US over ceasefire violations in Lebanon, saying support for Israel

www.presstv.ir

Iran draws red line: No final deal with US until Israel ends onslaught against Lebanon

Iran

www.presstv.ir

Araghchi: Israeli attacks on Lebanon violate Iran-US ceasefire

Foreign Minister Araghchi says the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States applies across “all fronts, including Lebanon.”

www.presstv.ir

Oil prices rise as Israeli forces invade deeper into Lebanon

The price of oil rises as Israeli occupation forces move deeper into Lebanon despite a ceasefire that has been in place for more than six weeks.

www.presstv.ir

IRGC hits US air base behind attack on telecom tower in southern Iran

The IRGC says it carried out a retaliatory strike against an air base used by the US for an attack on a telecom tower in southern Iran.

www.presstv.ir

Iran, US Discuss Compensation for Iran's War Damages – Iranian Foreign Ministry

Iran and the United States are discussing compensation for damage caused to Iran by military actions during their dialogue, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday.

sputnikglobe.com

U.S. And Iran Exchange Strikes Following Drone Interception (Videos)

Iran shot down another United States drone over the Persian Gulf over the night of May 31 and June 1,...

southfront.press

Iran warns northern Israeli settlers to flee if Beirut suburbs come under attack

Iran’s highest operational command unit warns residents in northern areas and military settlements in the occupied territories to leave the area amid Israel’s threats to bomb Lebanon.

www.presstv.ir

Israeli escalation in Lebanon and US adventurism in Persian Gulf test Irans ceasefire red lines

Israeli attacks on Lebanon and continued US military adventurism in the Persian Gulf are dangerously testing Iran

www.presstv.ir

'Negotiation Through Pressure' — Why US and Iran Exchange Strikes While Negotiating

Latest US strikes on Iranian radars and UAV command posts appear to pave the way for deeper strikes on energy hubs — including oil terminals on Kharg Island, Ankara-based security and political analyst Dr. Hasan Selim Ozertem tells Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

IRGC Retaliates Against Base From Which US Attacked Iranian Island - Reports

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, elite units of the Iranian Armed Forces) retaliated against the base from which the US attacked an Iranian island, the Mehr news agency reported.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Suspends Talks As 60 U.S. Refueling Aircraft Gather In Single Israeli Airport (Video)

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported on June 1 that the Islamic Republic’s negotiating team is stopping the exchange of...

southfront.press

Military Situation In Iran On June 1, 2026 (Map Update)

The US Army attacked radar and command-and-control sites for drones on Goruk and Qeshm Island;Iran fired two missiles at US bases in Kuwait in retaliation for the US strikes;Iran released video of the moment a US MQ-1 drone was destroyed by the IRGC Aerospace Force over Qeshm Island.

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Ship Hit In Iraq Amid Rising Tensions Between U.S. And Iran (Video)

A cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Gulf southeast of Iraq, causing a “large explosion,” the...

southfront.press

US pressuring Oman to drop neutrality, snap ties with Iran or face consequences: Report

The US is reportedly demanding that Oman abandon its neutrality and snap diplomatic ties with Iran, or face consequences.

www.presstv.ir

Singapore Sensation: Hegseth's Silence Reveals Systemic Crisis in US Military​

France Locks Out Israeli Offensive Weapons From Major Arms Expo

France has decided to bar official Israeli participation from the upcoming Eurosatory defense exhibition in Paris, one of the world's largest military trade fairs.

sputnikglobe.com

Iranian Navy Strikes US-Israeli Vessel With Cruise Missile - IRGC

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy launched a cruise missile strike on the US-Israeli vessel MSC Sariska in response to the US attack on the Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, the IRGC said.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Confirms It Struck Ship, Says It Was Retaliation To American Attack (Video)

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed late on June 1 that its naval forces targeted the container ship MSC...

southfront.press

Israel Backs Down From Bombing Beirut After Threat From Iran

United States President Donald Trump indicated on June 1 that Washington has brokered a new ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah....

southfront.press

Beirut retreat: Credible Iranian deterrence ends US-Israeli impunity to escalate unchecked

Iran’s threat of military intervention and demonstrated deterrence forced the American-Israeli war machine to abort a planned attack on Beirut, signaling Iran’s growing power and reshaping West Asia’s strategic balance permanently.

www.presstv.ir

Who Shapes Public Opinion in Israel — And Who Pays for It?​

Collapse of US-Iran Peace Deal a 'Definite Likelihood'

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sputnikglobe.com

US-Iran Deal Has Effectively Fallen Hostage to Israel’s Prime Minister - Expert

The potential deal with Iran that US President Donald Trump is seeking would benefit Israel, but not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is using the war to stay in power, security expert Dr. Simon Tsipis told Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

Military Situation In Iran On June 2, 2026 (Map Update)

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, spoke by phone with Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, emphasizing that if the atrocities in Lebanon continue, Iran will not only suspend the negotiation process but will also stand against the Zionist...

southfront.press

 

[timsk]

The Oil Trade
. . .So, what about the price? If a MoU is reached in the coming days, price could well fall lower. But, only temporarily. Why? For two reasons. Firstly, as already stated, the fundamental issues remain unresolved. Secondly, the ceasefire is in name only. As we've seen, it's been broken loads of times already and Israel has intensified its attacks on Lebanon which the Iranians have insisted - and will continue to insist - must form part of any long term peace agreement. So, when the cracks begin to widen and when the horse trading reveals yet again just how far apart the U.S. and Iran really are, price will rise substantially. Aggresive traders will add to their longs; more conservative ones will sit on the sidelines to see if/when and how the MoU plays out and if the Strait of Hormuz is properly re-opened and starts to operate normally. That's highly unlikely IMO but, if it were to happen, price could drop back down to the lower support level of $80.50. As much as he'd like to, Trump can't kick the can down the road indefinitely, the Iranians won't allow it and will force his hand. It's at that point when price will shoot back up from whence it came: $120.00 or higher.

Since my post above, there has been an important development: No MoU and Iran has completely withdrawn from negotiations with the U.S. Consequently, price appears to have bottomed out and is starting to rise again. It appears to me there are only three ways this fiasco can play out in the coming months. Take your pick on which one you think is the most probable. . .
1. Peace breaks out with hugs 'n kisses all round
2. The current uneasy limboland status quo drifts on
3. Return to full on kinetic war

1. Peace breaks out with hugs 'n kisses all round
The Iranians would welcome this, the Americans would pretend to and the Israelis would hate it. The Iranians want to be left in peace, secure in the knowledge that the U.S. and Israel won't attack them in the future. Even if a peace deal with this outcome is on the table, can they ever trust the other signatories? The U.S. wants regime change in Iran and to bring it under its control - just as it's done with the other GCC countries. This supports the petrodollar and limits China's influence and access to the region's oil. This won't ever happen while the IRGC rule Iran. Ultimately, sooner or later, the U.S. will try to instigate regime change in the country.

Israel views Iran as an existential threat (and visa versa), so it absolutely does not want a peace settlement now. They view this as possibly their last window of opportunity to destroy Iran and render it a failed state. Israel's popularity in the U.S. is waterfalling and, when Trump's gone, the next U.S. president is unlikely to be so subservient, so malleable, so compliant and willing to dance to Israel's tune. It's now or possibly never for them.

2. The current uneasy limboland status quo drifts on
This benefits Iran as it gives them time to rebuild and re-arm. In the meantime, they're generating a healthy income via tolls on the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). They have emerged much stronger - the 4th major world power some say - and so long as they can continue to withstand the crippling U.S. sanctions, they can live with the status quo. Trump insists he's in no hurry for a deal. He doth protest much too much! He's desperate for a deal. Why? Keeping U.S. forces in the region is costing a fortune. But that's minor compared to the impact on the global economy, due to the closure of the SoH. Many economists are saying that a recession in the U.K. is baked in by year end. Some are even saying that if the SoH isn't fully open and maritime traffic flowing normally by the end of July, then a global depression is on the cards. Allied to this are the forthcoming mid-term eelections. Trump's approval rating is plummeting while 'gas' prices are rising. He has to do something soon to stop the rot or he's toast and his presidency will end in complete failure. As for Israel - it can live with the status quo as they couldn't give a fig about the global economy or anyone/anything else for that matter.

3. Return to full on kinetic war
The Iranians don't want this but are absolutely prepared for it - they expect it, even. And, if it does kick off, their response will be utterly devastating. Infrastructure across GCC countries (especially U.A.E.) will be destroyed, possibly including desalination plants. The global economy will be shattered. Israel wants a kinetic war for the reasons already stated, as they view this option as being their best chance to destroy Iran. So, they'll continue to attack Lebanon because they know that no peace deal will be made without Lebanon being included. The U.S. isn't keen on this option as they've tried it once and it didn't work and there's nothing to suggest that it'll work next time. Also, they're running low on missiles and when they're gone - they're gone. They couldn't sustain a high intensity attack for very long. So, the gamble is simply too great and the downside risk if it doesn't work is off the richter scale.

In a nutshell, that's my assessment. Option 1 won't happen because Israel won't allow it to happen. That leaves options 2 and 3: the current status quo or a return to war. Both of these will push up the oil price. How can they not? There's no off-ramp for Trump: neither the Iranians nor the Israelis will give him one. The only thing he could do is to declare victory, pull all U.S. forces out of the region and go home. Prof. Jeffrey Sachs argues this is Trump's only viable option and, if he does this, that the Chinese and the Russians will pressurise the Iranians to open up the SoH. Iran will likely agree to this as world opinion is now very much with them rather than against them and they'll want to retain that going forward and keep the Chinese and Russians very much on side.

Daily Brent Crude chart below. If you agree with my analysis, now is as good a time as any to load up your long position. If you don't agree with it - please tell me where I'm going wrong! The bottom line as I see it is that if Trump doesn't pull out and the status quo lingers on or, worse still, kinetic war resumes, price will drift up as world strategic oil reserves run dry and the impct on agriculture filters through, due to the lack of fertilizers etc. Under these circumstances, I predict $200.00 a barrel by year end.