Iran War and the Impact on Oil

[Atilla]

Strait of Hormuz Iran’s ‘permanent asset’, will be defended with ‘full strength’: Lawmaker

A senior Iranian lawmaker describes the Strait of Hormuz as the Islamic Republic

www.presstv.ir

Iran Ready for Any Scenario of Conflict With US - Foreign Ministry

Iran is prepared for any scenario in its conflict with the United States, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday.

sputnikglobe.com

Trump Says 'Not Open' to Any Concessions After Iran's Latest Peace Proposal

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he was "not open" to any concessions after receiving Iran's latest peace proposal.

sputnikglobe.com

Iranian Army Threatens to Open New Fronts If US Aggression Repeated

Iran's military will open new fronts in the event of renewed aggression by the United States and Israel, Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said on Tuesday.

sputnikglobe.com

IRGC Navy says more ships transiting Strait of Hormuz under its coordination

The IRGC says some 26 ships passed the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours leading up to noon on May 20.

www.presstv.ir

U.S. Seized Another Iranian Oil Tanker

The United States military had seized an Iran-linked oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal reported on...

southfront.press

War beyond the region: IRGC vows to bring enemies to absolute ruin if Iran faces new aggression

The IRGC says the US and Israel have failed to learn from repeated major and strategic defeats at the hands of the Islamic Revolution.

www.presstv.ir

US, Israel must find way out of ‘quagmire’ sooner for their own sake: Iran FM spokesman

The United States and Israel must take responsibility for the war they started and find their own way out of the quagmire, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman says.

www.presstv.ir

Trump’s Iran brinkmanship: The secret behind six retreats

TEHRAN - President Donald Trump has once again backed down from his threat of military action against Iran, as US officials cited by The New York Times acknowledged that Iran’s “successful resistance” and “enormous resilience” have complicated Washington’s war aims and strengthened Tehran’s...

www.tehrantimes.com

IRGC Says 26 Vessels Passed Through Strait of Hormuz Over Past Day

wenty-six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, the naval forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Wednesday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Shares Footage Of Strike On Ship Violating Blockade

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on May 20 released video footage showing a strike on a vessel that it...

southfront.press

There is talk about the US maintaining the blockade on the straits for good few months, with their objectives being to cause supply shortages and suffering to make Iran accept their daft total surrender such that a puppet regime can be implemented with a view to syphoning Iranian oil by US corporations.

The other side of the coin is maintaining the fleet and all the costs entailed with troop changes and morale on the US power. With elections nearing and Trump's popularity falling, how long can the US public sustain support if any for this futile war started by Israel?

All at the same time as benefitting both Russia and China because, oil flows at higher prices and China is not really affected in any meaningful way. On the contrary relations between Russia and China further improving along with trade.

US has badly calculated gains and losses in this war and at the same time Israel led by Nethanyanu has clearly become the genocidal sick man of the globe.

This is a very good article which captures World Wide opinion on the US and Israel imho. Outside of the biased and highly controlled media in the West. Worth reading.

The US, Israel and the normalisation of scandal

Thanks to Netanyahu and Trump, scandal is now our new normal - call it 'Everythinggate'.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

IRGC Navy coordinates safe passage of 31 commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz

The IRGC says 31 commercial vessels have safely crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours in coordination with its Navy.

www.presstv.ir

US Navy Lacks Capacity to Reopen Strait of Hormuz by Escorting Ships

The United States Navy lacks the capacity to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by providing escort services to ships through the contested waterway, US Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle said on Thursday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Declares 'Controlled Maritime Zone’ In Hormuz

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) announced on May 21 that there will be a “controlled maritime zone” at the...

southfront.press

Iran Is Discussing Permanent Hormuz Toll With Oman

Iran is discussing with Oman how to set a permanent toll system that will formalize its control of maritime traffic...

southfront.press

Iran Ceasefire Nears Its End

The ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be nearing its end, with both sides exchanging attacks in...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

IRGC Navy coordinates safe passage of another 35 ships through Strait of Hormuz

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has announced that it coordinated the transit of another 35 ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.

www.presstv.ir

US-Israel attack ‘flagrant’ breach of UN Charter, not merely ‘unnecessary war’, Iran tells Germany

Iran tells Germany that the unlawful US-Israel attacks against the Islamic Republic were not merely an unnecessary war but a blatant act of aggression against a sovereign state.

www.presstv.ir

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/526677/Is-Trump-s-diplomacy-a-ruse

Remains Of Emirate Suicide Drones Found In Iran

The wreckage of drones made by the United Arab Emirates have been found in Iran, providing yet another evidence that...

southfront.press

Iran War Wiped Out 20% Of U.S. Combat Drones

Iran has destroyed more than two dozen MQ-9 Reaper combat drones of the United States military since the start of...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iran Strait Talk – The Professors Are Lying To You​

Iran, US Moved Closer Toward Resolving Differences - Foreign Ministry

Iran and the United States moved closer toward finding ways to resolve their differences, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Saturday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran, US moving closer to finalizing memorandum of understanding: Baghaei

Iran says its views are converging with the United States on a 14-point memorandum aimed at halting the US-Israeli-imposed war, unlocking Tehran’s frozen assets, and ending American maritime piracy.

www.presstv.ir

Israel In Panic Over ‘Very Bad’ Deal With Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convening coalition party leaders and Israeli security chiefs for a discussion on the deal...

southfront.press

Military Situation In Iran On May 23, 2026 (Map Update)

Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir met with Iranian President Masoud Pezzekian, Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, and Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi in Tehran;CBS News, citing several sources, claimed that the Trump administration is preparing for a new round of attacks against Iran;

southfront.press

 

[timsk]

It appears that, once again,Trump has been talking to the imaginary Iranian diplomats in his head and, according to him, a peace deal is all but agreed and will be announced in a day or two. Doubtless, he told family and friends before the markets closed on Friday that he'd be making this announcement over the weekend so they could short Brent Crude in the expectation that the market gaps down on the news on Monday. Whereupon, said friends and family duly bank their profits and say thank you Mr. President.

Needless to say, the real Iranian diplomats no nothing about this deal and when it becomes obvious to all and sundry that the Strait of Hormuz is no nearer to being open next week than it was last week, oil prices will, inevetably, shoot back up. How many times have we seen this play? Hopefully, I'll be proved wrong this time and there really is a deal and this complete shit show will come to an abrupt end. But I won't be holding my breath.

If my pesimistic prediuction proves to be correct - buy the dip. Daily chart of Brent Crude, below.

 

[timsk]

. . . It appears that, once again,Trump has been talking to the imaginary Iranian diplomats in his head and, according to him, a peace deal is all but agreed and will be announced in a day or two. Doubtless, he told family and friends before the markets closed on Friday that he'd be making this announcement over the weekend so they could short Brent Crude in the expectation that the market gaps down on the news on Monday. Whereupon, said friends and family duly bank their profits and say thank you Mr. President. . .

Well, Trump's family and friends will be disppointed by the opening gap down, currently trading a paltry $5.00 below Friday's close.

Assuming no news emerges from official Iranian channels suggesting that a peace deal is being brokered, price will start to rise and the (small) gap will get filled in the coming days. Time to get back in if you've been stopped out or, if not, to add to your existing long position.

 

[timsk]

A 'nail on head' assessment of the current state of play from the ever excellent Prof. John Mearsheimer. Enjoy . . .

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/526748/Trump-in-Netanyahu-s-Grip

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/24/769210/IRGC-reports-increased-transit-rates-in-Hormuz-with-33-ships-passing-in-24-hours-

Pezeshkian: Iran ready to assure world it is not seeking nuclear weapons

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran is ready to assure the world it is not seeking nuclear weapons.

www.presstv.ir

Iran stands alone against worlds tyrannical powers, humiliated US and Israel: Hezbollah chief

Hezbollah leader says the Islamic Republic of Iran managed to humiliate the US and Israel and stands alone as a defiant force against the world’s tyrannical powers.

www.presstv.ir

Leader’s strategies for Persian Gulf, Hormuz Strait to ensure future of region: Top general

A senior Iranian military commander says Ayatollah Khamenei’s strategies for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz will shape new regional and global order.

www.presstv.ir

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/05/24/769217/Iran-Rezaei-NPT-blockade

Trump Vows to Maintain Naval Blockade of Iran Until Deal Signed

US President Donald Trump on Sunday said that the United States will maintain the naval blockade of Iran until a deal is signed.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Could Withdraw From NPT If US Attacks Persian Gulf - Official

Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and break the naval blockade if the United States invades the Persian Gulf or "commits any aggression" against the Strait of Hormuz, Mohsen Rezai, a member of Iran's Expediency Discernment Council, said on Sunday.

sputnikglobe.com

US-Iran Deal Calls for 60-Day Ceasefire Extension - Reports

The US-Iran agreement, which could be signed soon, calls for a 60-day ceasefire extension, Axios reported citing a US official.

sputnikglobe.com

Military Situation In Iran On May 24, 2026 (Map Update)

According to unofficial information, Iran and the United States are approaching to a memorandum of understanding agreement and ending the war;The US CENTCOM claimed that the number of forced diversions of commercial ships has reached 100 as part of the US naval blockade of Iran;

southfront.press

Red Lines in Water: Iran Removes Strait of Hormuz From Memorandum With US

The issues of managing the Strait of Hormuz are not included in the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, they will be resolved by the coastal countries, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Monday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran says US talks focus on ending war, not Hormuz management or nuclear issue

Iran says indirect talks with the US are centered on ending aggression on all fronts, stressing that nuclear issues are not part of the negotiations.

www.presstv.ir

Military Situation In Iran On May 25, 2026 (Map Update)

Iranian air defenses shot down a drone over Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz;Iran's Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati traveled to Qatar to discuss the release of blocked assets and as part of the economic commission negotiations;

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Zero-sum terminus: Iran’s roadmap to ending the war on its terms vs. America’s choice between bad and worse

Iran demands a definitive end to the imposed war on its terms – before any discussion on the nuclear issue – while a strategically defeated US has no options but to accept Iran

www.presstv.ir

Iran has no trust in US; frozen assets release red line for any deal: Source to Iranian agency

“Even if an initial understanding is reached, it does not mean Iran has changed its view of America or that it trusts the current administration to fulfill its obligations,” the source said.

www.presstv.ir

US Confirms Strikes in Iran During Ceasefire — Reports

US Central Command confirmed that American forces carried out strikes in southern Iran, claiming they were conducted in “self-defense.”

sputnikglobe.com

IRGC Accuses US of Violating Iranian Airspace, Warns of Retaliation

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused the United States on Tuesday of invading the country's airspace, adding that Tehran reserves the right to retaliate.

sputnikglobe.com

Hajj message: Leader invites Muslim nations to shape new regional order, says US era is over

The Leader urges Muslim countries to deepen cooperation and shape a new regional and global order beyond American dominance.

www.presstv.ir

US aggression in southern Iran fails amid ceasefire breach: Reports

US forces launched unprovoked strikes on sites in southern Iran on Monday, targeting areas near the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas.

www.presstv.ir

If attacked, Iran’s response will be ‘more severe’ than previous wars, military spokesman warns

Shekarchi warns that Iran has renewed its target bank and is ready for war.

www.presstv.ir

Deadly U.S. Strikes Hit Iranian Boats, Drone Shot Down In Response

United States and Israeli strikes hit Iranian vessels south of the Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, killing “several...

southfront.press

Technology achieved amid war enabled Iran to down 210 enemy aircraft: Defense Ministry

Acting defense minister says Iran made major breakthroughs in air defense technology during the joint US-Israeli war.

www.presstv.ir

Military Situation In Iran On May 26, 2026 (Map Update)

A tanker was attacked 60 nm east of Muscat. Crew are safe but some bunker fuel has discharged into the...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

IRGC Navy: 25 ships transited Strait of Hormuz in past 24 hours under its protection

The IRGC Navy has once again demonstrated its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, successfully escorting 25 commercial vessels through the vital waterway in the past 24 hours.

www.presstv.ir

Iranian President Says Ready to Finalize Efforts Toward Ending Conflict in Middle East

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday told Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani that Tehran is ready to complete work to end the conflict and tensions in the Middle East.

sputnikglobe.com

Lessons of war: Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear sovereignty define Iran’s inviolable red lines today

After failed US military aggression, Iran’s non-negotiable Strait of Hormuz sovereignty and nuclear capability serve as existential pillars, with negotiations aimed solely at proving the American war lever is permanently broken.

www.presstv.ir

Military Situation In Iran On May 27, 2026 (Map Update)

Iran released the footage of wreckage of a US MQ-9 drone that was shot down two days ago;Iran released the footage of an F-35 fighter jet that was reportedly repelled by Iranian air defenses;The US Navy has quietly begun limited operations as part of a new phase of the so-called Project Freedom...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

‘Stern warning’: IRGC announces retaliatory attack on US base following American aggression

The IRGC warns the enemies that it will give decisive response to any act of aggression against the Islamic Republic.

www.presstv.ir

Iran vows proportionate response to further US provocations after Bandar Abbas strike

An Iranian deputy foreign minister says Iran will respond proportionately to any continued provocations by the US.

www.presstv.ir

Deal Reportedly Reached With Iran But Trump Wont Sign It

Negotiators from the United States and Iran have reached a draft 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and...

southfront.press

Military Situation In Iran On May 28, 2026 (Map Update)

Iranian army allegedly launched four drones at a US oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz;The US army attacked targets near Bandar Abbas city;Iran attacked US bases in Kuwait with several short-range ballistic missiles in retaliation for the US attacks near Bandar Abbas.

southfront.press

 

[timsk]

The Oil Trade
Price is currently trading around the $95.00 mark, having drifted lower in the last few days due to a possible MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) to kick the can down the road for another 60 days. The Trump administration is just trying to buy time as they can't work out how to to get out of the bind they're in. Fundamentally, nothing has changed. There's no deal on the table that both sides can agree to (U.S. and Iran) and, even if there was, Isreal would scuttle it long before it was signed. As things stand, Israel is in a much worse position now than it was before the war started, as their power and influnce is on the decline while Iran's has skyrocketed. Iran is far more likely to emerge from all of this as the regional hegemon, and the lesson leaned by Isreal's enemies is simple: get a nuclear weapon asap to stand any chance of being left in peace. You can bet your house that's exactly what Egypt and Turkey will do - or are now doing. So, Isreal's only optiuon is to keep the U.S. war machine's nose to the grindstone and continue with the war in the (vain) hope that Iran collapses under the bombardment. They will exert maximum pressure on the Trump administration to force that outcome, using the 'Three Bs' (blackmail, bribery and blow jobs).

So, what about the price? If a MoU is reached in the coming days, price could well fall lower. But, only temporarily. Why? For two reasons. Firstly, as already stated, the fundamental issues remain unresolved. Secondly, the ceasefire is in name only. As we've seen, it's been broken loads of times already and Israel has intensified its attacks on Lebanon which the Iranians have insisted - and will continue to insist - must form part of any long term peace agreement. So, when the cracks begin to widen and when the horse trading reveals yet again just how far apart the U.S. and Iran really are, price will rise substantially. Aggresive traders will add to their longs; more conservative ones will sit on the sidelines to see if/when and how the MoU plays out and if the Strait of Hormuz is properly re-opened and starts to operate normally. That's highly unlikely IMO but, if it were to happen, price could drop back down to the lower support level of $80.50. As much as he'd like to, Trump can't kick the can down the road indefinitely, the Iranians won't allow it and will force his hand. It's at that point when price will shoot back up from whence it came: $120.00 or higher.

Daily chart of Brent Crude, below.