Iran War and the Impact on Oil

[Atilla]

Hi At',
I've noticed a massive amount of AI content on YouTube recently. Speaking personally (not giving advice about what you - or others - should do), my default position is to start with the assumption that what I'm viewing is completely false AI slop - unless it comes from a verified trusted source. There are any number of videos (shorts especially) showing missiles raining down on Israel with cartoon style explosions that are so obviously AI generated. Mind you, it makes up for the complete blackout coming from Israel and some gulf states which don't want anyone to know the resality of what's going on. I find it very hard to get a clear picture about how efficient these air defense systems are - or aren't - and how much real damage Iran is - or isn't inflicting on its aggressors.

Suffice to say that the fog of war is extremely foggy at the minute. What I can say with some certainty is that the Trump / Netanyahu offensive isn't working and that some/many? Iranian missiles and drones are indeed getting through and, most importantly, the Iranians have full control (for now) over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is desperate for an off-ramp and can't do anything other than to implore other nations to send ships to protect tankers etc. willing to chance the Hormuz gauntlet. He and Netanyahu appear to me to be digging themselves into an ever deeper hole from which they'll struggle to emerge. It's a bit remminiscent of Churhill's call to all British fishermen and recreational yacht owners in 1940 to make the channel crossing to pick up allied servicemen stranded on the shores of Dunkirk in 'Operation Dynamo'. Only this time I rather doubt the outcome will be anything like as heroic or successful. And, with 5,000 marines dispatched to the conflict - this shit show looks destined to get a whole lot worse before it gets any better.
Tim.

Psychological war games about how we are winning and many pieces of news bites all very confusing yes.

What is clear though, what ever comes out of Trump's mouth is equally weird and not true at all.
- US won the war
- Iran destroyed
- UK help no longer needed
- Now he needs our help again
- He 'expects' China to help unblock the strait, otherwise he could delay summit with Xi Jinping

Summary of demand for help and threats here. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx2lr40g17kt

Glad UK points out NATO is a defensive alliance and can not be called in to fight illegal wars started at the whim of Genocidal Maniacs and Megalomaniacs.

This orange man is absurd and failing in his leadership abilities having followed the genocidal lunatic into battle.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/on-trumps-no-to-killing-irans-supreme-leader-a-big-remark-by-netanyahu-8685269

I reckon Trump is fuming at Nethanyanu and hence, nobody has seen Nethanyanu for a while???

Tel Aviv:
A day after US officials confirmed that President Donald Trump had vetoed Israeli plans to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated that the quickest way to end this conflict is for Israel to take out the Ayatollah.

Prime Minister Netanyahu's remark came as the Israel-Iran conflict enters the fourth day, with both sides raining missiles on each other, even targeting civilians. Analysts fear that the situation has spiraled out of control and both nations have told its citizens to be prepared for the long haul.

"It's not going to escalate the conflict, it's going to end the conflict," Mr Netanyahu told ABC News in an interview when asked about reports that US President Donald Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill the supreme leader out of concern it would intensify the Iran-Israel showdown.

"The 'forever war' is what Iran wants, and they're bringing us to the brink of a nuclear war," Mr Netanyahu said, adding that "In fact, what Israel is doing is preventing this, bringing an end to this aggression, and we can only do so by standing up to the forces of evil."

Reports have suggested that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his entire family have been moved to a secure location - a bunker at an undisclosed area in Iran. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are shielding the Supreme Leader and as of Monday night, he is safe and overseeing the developments and giving orders to the military.

The news of Donald Trump vetoing Israel's decision to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader was first reported by global news agency Reuters, who had quoted senior unnamed officials in the Trump Administration as confirming it.






They said that the Israelis reported that they had an opportunity to kill the top Iranian leader, but President Trump waved them off of the plan. The officials did not say whether Trump himself delivered the message. But the US President has been in frequent communications with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

When Netanyahu was asked about this on Fox News on Sunday, he had said, "There's so many false reports of conversations that never happened, and I'm not going to get into that," adding that "I can tell you, I think that we do what we need to do, we'll do what we need to do. And I think the United States knows what is good for the United States."

 

[timsk]

. . . Reports have suggested that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his entire family have been moved to a secure location - a bunker at an undisclosed area in Iran. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are shielding the Supreme Leader and as of Monday night, he is safe and overseeing the developments and giving orders to the military. . .

I'm confused At'!
Ali Khamenei was assasinated on 28th February and Trump has been boasting about it!

 

[timsk]

I've written to my MP about this conflict and attach a pdf of the letter to this post.
If you share the sentiments expressed and want to use it as a template to write to your political representative - be my guest. Cut 'n paste, edit as you see fit - hope it helps!
Tim.

 

[Atilla]

I'm confused At'!
Ali Khamenei was assasinated on 28th February and Trump has been boasting about it!

Hi Tim,

That article was written in
This Article is From Jun 16, 2025, whilst the 12 day war was going on. Trump veteod the assassination back then.

It effectively points out the difference of opinions. At some point, somethings changed, like after the release of Epstain papers over the Autumn period last year and subsequently imo Trump towed the line wrt Nethanyanu and State of Israel leading this war on Iran. As we know some papers were still held back.

Here is the same extract from the article. I'm sorry I should have pointed it out in bold or something.
A day after US officials confirmed that President Donald Trump had vetoed Israeli plans to assassinate Iran's Supreme Leader, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated that the quickest way to end this conflict is for Israel to take out the Ayatollah.


We clearly now can see Trump was right back then and Nethanyanu delusional. It has not been the quickest way to end the conflict. All along Israel has only been escalating it along with the many white flag incidents that don't make sense, claiming Iran started attacking oil facilities. Blowing up Iran's 30 oil depos I think has tipped and escalated this war into the straits. Iran is simply responding tit-for-tats.

People seem to have forgotten why this war is being fought.
1. Regime change - on the contrary the regime has strengthened
2. Nuclear contorl - Iran was prepared to negotiate and was already part of the IAEA which Israel is not. We were also told Iran's nuclear threat was demolished in the 12 day war.
3. Israel now considering use of Nuclear weapons to save her bacon
4. Removal of Iran's IBMissiles

No international rule or law is considered by these two war mongers pursing this illegal war and contrary to human decency, attacks on peace negotiators and leaders, killing other assets indiscriminantly has been executed by the State of Israel.

Peace can only be attained imo by the removal of the orange man and genocidal maniac with big ears. Time will tell.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Most missiles used in war are a decade old; US does not dare enter Persian Gulf: IRGC spokesman

The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) has revealed that the majority of missiles so far launched against American and Israeli targets during Operation True Promise 4 have been manufactured approximately ten years ago.

www.presstv.ir

Iran declares support centers for USS Gerald R. Ford legitimate targets

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has issued a warning that all logistical and service centers supporting the US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea are now considered legitimate targets for Iranian armed forces, as the warship takes refuge at Saudi Arabia

www.presstv.ir

Iranian model of warfare bleeds US dry while Persian Gulf states watch and learn: Analyst

Brazilian defense analyst Patricia Marins says "Iranian model" of warfare, built on domestic industry, geography, and resilience, is outperforming the American model, costing the US up to $8 billion daily.

www.presstv.ir

Iran’s Army launches retaliatory drone strikes on Israeli arms companies

The Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran launches retaliatory drone strikes on strategic centers belonging to Israeli weapons manufacturers, including Rafael and Industries Aircraft Israel (IAI).

www.presstv.ir

Attack on Kharg Island would transform global energy equation, IRGC Navy chief warns

Tangsiri warns that any attack on Iran’s Kharg Island would fundamentally alter global energy markets.

www.presstv.ir

US Navy Relocates Two Aircraft Carriers to Reduce Risk from Iran and Houthi Missiles​

US–Russia Tensions Grow: Washington Warns Moscow Against Interference​

Discount on Russian Oil Shrinks as India Pays Near-Brent Prices​

Trump Warns NATO Faces 'Very Bad Future' if Allies Don’t Help in Hormuz — Reports

US President Donald Trump warned that NATO could face a “very bad” future if US allies fail to assist Washington in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to an interview with The Financial Times.

sputnikglobe.com

UK Resists Sending Warships to Hormuz Mission Sought by Trump — Reports

Britain is not prepared to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite US President Donald Trump’s call for allies to join a naval effort, The Telegraph reported.

sputnikglobe.com

US Used 10% of Ready-to-Fire Tomahawk Arsenal in First 3 Days of Iran Operation - Reports

The US Navy launched about 10% of its ready-to-fire Tomahawk missile arsenal during the first three days of the military operation against Iran, The National Interest magazine reported on Monday.

sputnikglobe.com

Hezbollah Tanker Hunters Resurface As Israel Begins Ground Operation In Lebanon (Videos)

Hezbollah on March 16 released video footage showing its fighters taking out a Merkava 4M main battle tank, as the...

southfront.press

Eastern Overlord: Why Air Power Failed and Ground Invasion Looms in Iran

Washington’s lack of a clear Plan B in the war with Iran has left the US in a strategic deadlock....

southfront.press

 

[robby77]

Geopolitical risk is always the biggest wild card for energy prices. If the Strait of Hormuz gets involved, technical levels like that trendline won't mean much anymore.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iran War Exposes Limits of US Military Power – Journalist

The United States does have great firepower, but it is still far from the strongest country in the world, veteran war correspondent Elijah J. Magnier tells Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

‘US not loyal to you, Israel your enemy’, Iran’s top security official warns Muslim nations

Iran’s top security official tells Muslim countries that the United States has proven it is not loyal to them and that the Israeli regime is their enemy.

www.presstv.ir

US suffered over 3,200 casualties, staggering equipment losses in first week of war: Source

A senior Iranian intelligence official, speaking to a Press TV correspondent, has revealed detailed estimates of damage inflicted on the US military in the region during the first seven days of the ongoing war.

www.presstv.ir

Irans top security official, Dr. Ali Larijani, martyred in American-Israeli aggression

Iran

www.presstv.ir

Deepfakes, Silence, and Strategy: How Netanyahu’s Absence Sparked Media Crisis​

Too Risky to Follow? Why NATO Allies Won’t Join US Hormuz Crusade

NATO members are hesitant to participate in the US-led maritime operation in the Strait of Hormuz “due to the uncertainty on the battlefield,” Turkish political analyst Hasan Selim Ozertem tells Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

Trump Says US No Longer Needs NATO Assistance With Iran

The United States no longer needs nor desires the assistance of NATO member states to secure the Strait of Hormuz amid the conflict with Iran, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, claiming that Washington never required help.

sputnikglobe.com

Boots In The Gulf: Why Ground Troops Are America's Only Option Left

The United States has reached a strategic deadlock in its war with Iran. Weeks of airstrikes and precision attacks on...

southfront.press

 

[Atilla]

Pretty much what most analysts and other countries know, outside of the Jewish lobby MSM mouthpieces telling us Iran is a threat to the USA, what Joe Kent has said in his resignation letter is on the nail.

Top US counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigns over Iran war

National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent says Trump "started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby".

www.bbc.co.uk

Donald Trump's top counterterrorism official has resigned over the war in Iran, urging the president to "reverse course".

In a letter posted to X, National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent said that Iran posed "no imminent threat" to the US and claimed the administration "started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby".

The White House dismissed the letter, saying the president had "compelling evidence" that Iran was going to attack the US first. A US hate monitor accused Kent of "antisemitic tropes".

With his departure, Kent is the most high-profile figure within the Trump administration to publicly criticise the US-Israeli attack on Iran.


Typically, anyone who says anything otherwise what is trolled out by Israel version of events is "antisemitic". Yawn yawn yawn. Genocidal terrorist state, waging war and scorch earth policies in the region, telling anyone else who holds a different view is antisemitic! Typical.

 

[timsk]

. . . With his departure, Kent is the most high-profile figure within the Trump administration to publicly criticise the US-Israeli attack on Iran. . .

. . . And he'll likely pay a very heavy price for his integrity.
Every government agency will be working overtime to dig up the tiniest bit of dirt on him to try and discredit him in any way they can. In short, he may not actually be killed, but his life - and probably that of his family - will soon be as good as over. He willl be destroyed. Just as the Islamic regime in Iran cracked down heavily on demonstrators just before the outbreak of the war, making it clear that opposition to the regime will not be tolerated, Trump's administration will do the western equivalent to Joe Kent. Why? Because everyone's watching and if one senior official can resign telling the truth with little or no pushback, it will embolden others to follow suit. If Tulsi Gabbard has an ounce of integrity, she'll go next. However, practical considerations like salaries, mortgages and pensions tend to trump taking the moral high ground - so I expect the imminent brutal cancelation of Joe Kent to be very effective in silencing numerous other senior figures who know in their heart of hearts that this war is wrong on all fronts.

I don't play chess, but there's a one word expression of german origin used by those that do: 'zugswang'. Situations in real life resemble a zugzwang when anything you do will make the situation worse, and you don't have a choice not to make a choice. This is the situation Trump now finds himself in, as a result of listening solely to Netanyahu and his ultra zionist henchmen: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. The window to declare the war is over and that U.S. / Israel won hands down is closing fast - if not already bolted shut. There's little he can do to re-open the Straight of Hormuz: the marines he's sending to the region will likely fail - if that's what they're being sent there to do. He's losing friends and influence by the countryload every day. He can't keep a lid on energy prices and he's burning through his munitions supplies like there's no tomorrow. He can't negotiate directly with Iran and, irony of ironies, the one state who could act as intermediary is the country he's fighting his other war against: Russia. On the face of it, Trump is well and truly screwed. That said, I wouldn't write him off yet - like the proverbial turd that won't flush - he has a nasty habit of somehow bouncing back.

Regarding the oil trade - no change. The facts on the ground haven't changed - if anything they've got worse - so stick with it. Pressure on price is still to the upside. But, as always, be vigilent and expect the unexpected - resulting in downward pressure.

 

[Atilla]

. . . And he'll likely pay a very heavy price for his integrity.
Every government agency will be working overtime to dig up the tiniest bit of dirt on him to try and discredit him in any way they can. In short, he may not actually be killed, but his life - and probably that of his family - will soon be as good as over. He willl be destroyed. Just as the Islamic regime in Iran cracked down heavily on demonstrators just before the outbreak of the war, making it clear that opposition to the regime will not be tolerated, Trump's administration will do the western equivalent to Joe Kent. Why? Because everyone's watching and if one senior official can resign telling the truth with little or no pushback, it will embolden others to follow suit. If Tulsi Gabbard has an ounce of integrity, she'll go next. However, practical considerations like salaries, mortgages and pensions tend to trump taking the moral high ground - so I expect the imminent brutal cancelation of Joe Kent to be very effective in silencing numerous other senior figures who know in their heart of hearts that this war is wrong on all fronts.

I don't play chess, but there's a one word expression of german origin used by those that do: 'zugswang'. Situations in real life resemble a zugzwang when anything you do will make the situation worse, and you don't have a choice not to make a choice. This is the situation Trump now finds himself in, as a result of listening solely to Netanyahu and his ultra zionist henchmen: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. The window to declare the war is over and that U.S. / Israel won hands down is closing fast - if not already bolted shut. There's little he can do to re-open the Straight of Hormuz: the marines he's sending to the region will likely fail - if that's what they're being sent there to do. He's losing friends and influence by the countryload every day. He can't keep a lid on energy prices and he's burning through his munitions supplies like there's no tomorrow. He can't negotiate directly with Iran and, irony of ironies, the one state who could act as intermediary is the country he's fighting his other war against: Russia. On the face of it, Trump is well and truly screwed. That said, I wouldn't write him off yet - like the proverbial turd that won't flush - he has a nasty habit of somehow bouncing back.

Regarding the oil trade - no change. The facts on the ground haven't changed - if anything they've got worse - so stick with it. Pressure on price is still to the upside. But, as always, be vigilent and expect the unexpected - resulting in downward pressure.

I concur 100% with your post yes.

It is the same with US Corporations too. I know for a fact having worked for IBM, that any customer management layer who bought a competitors kit in the early days, would be hounded with any dirt and future career path actively monitored and interfered with. For me to know this, you have to understand they obviously had a reputation for it.

Similarly in the UK we have David Kelly, who supposedly took his own life by slashing his wrists whilst walking his dog over the sexed up dossier where Iraq was supposed to pose a nuclear threat to us. The first ambulance crew when they got to him, didn't think there was enough blood for it to have been suicide. However, from Bliars' cabinet releasing his name to the press and his suicide have all the marks of retribution metted out to him for making a stand against the establishment opposing the Iraq war.

US really is the evil Empire from Latin America to the ME and now turning on her own allies.

Trump is such an idiot! Hardly a clever or even a little bit of a smart man. Just a self entitled bully, born with a silver spoon up his arse. Like petulant child, he asks for help and then says he didn't need it anyway when his allies decline.

As for US wasting trillions on NATO, the orange baby needs to be educated about how being a member of NATO entails spending billions and trillions on US five big weapons manufacturers feeding the evil empire. EU I hope now develops her own weapons industry helping our own national interests.

Then there are the tariffs levied on friendly allies in the West. The orange man has lost all senses and memory.


Orange man along with the Zionists led by the genocidal maniac are both a danger to humanity imho. Quicker they both go the better.

 

[timsk]

UnHerd's Freddie Sayers speaks with Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, Robert Pape, to discuss the high-stakes ‘escalation trap’ unfolding between the United States and Iran - breaking down the tactical successes and failures of the US military campaign and analysing how Iran is leveraging its geographical position and control of the Strait of Hormuz through low-cost drone and missile harassment. As Professor Pape draws comparisons to the Vietnam War and 1973 oil crisis, has the Trump administration lost control of the conflict's trajectory, and are we moving toward a dangerous ground power dilemma that threatens the global economy and the stability of the Western alliance?

 

[Atilla]

UnHerd's Freddie Sayers speaks with Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, Robert Pape, to discuss the high-stakes ‘escalation trap’ unfolding between the United States and Iran - breaking down the tactical successes and failures of the US military campaign and analysing how Iran is leveraging its geographical position and control of the Strait of Hormuz through low-cost drone and missile harassment. As Professor Pape draws comparisons to the Vietnam War and 1973 oil crisis, has the Trump administration lost control of the conflict's trajectory, and are we moving toward a dangerous ground power dilemma that threatens the global economy and the stability of the Western alliance?

Yes definitely the 4/5 day war is escallating and I don't think anyone right now can see an end game.

Israel hitting gas facilities with Iran promising to retaliate, the energy crises is moving from oil to gas.

We are no longer talking about regime change but purely destroying Iran including civilian infrastructures.

If the Houthis couldn't be stopped or dealt with I find it difficult to see how a population of 90m with massive land territory can be dealt with.

The US intelligence committe says Russia and China helping Iran and that's not fair. No sh!t sherlock. US has a monopoly on what is fair and what not.