Iran War and the Impact on Oil

[Rufus_Leakey]

Your clickbait didn't get the right name of the tanker 😉

US-sanctioned oil tanker Skylight hit by Iran off Oman

УНН News of the World ✎ The Palau-flagged tanker Skylight, which is under US sanctions, was attacked off Oman's Musandam Peninsula. Four crew members were injured, and 20 peo…

unn.ua

https://www.marinetraffic.org/ship-owner-manager-ism-data/SKYLIGHT/9330020/511101102

The video clearly shows the Skylight on fire, but but the description has a typo. Yes, that's mistake, but is it any worse than the Iranian military's attack on the ship?

 

[timsk]

An absolutely brilliant interview with the ever sensible and clear thinking realist Col. Douglas Macgregor. Sadly, you won't see the likes of him being interviewed on the BBC here in the U.K. or equivalent MSM in the U.S. It's peppered from start to finish with down to earth common sense and exposes the flawed thinking and muddled (at best) strategy of Trump and his administration. But that's not really a surprise given that he/they are not in control and are completely subserviant to - and at the behest of - a madman like Netanyahu. Enjoy . . .

 

[timsk]

A commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Monday that the strait was “closed” and that any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be set “ablaze.”

Shutdown of Hormuz Strait raises fears of soaring oil prices​

A really interesting YouTube video from Brian Berletic of the The New Atlas in which he outlines the logistics of waging a war in foreign lands. He provides a compelling argument that this is the culmination of long term U.S. foregn policy to mantain its hegemony in the region and to thwart the rise of China, Russia and the BRICS nations. The U.S. spiel about ridding the world of a terrorist regime is total hogwash - but anyone subscibed to this thread probably knows that already. 😉

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

US embassy in Saudi capital set ablaze after drone attack: Riyadh

At least two drones have launched an attack against the US embassy in Riyadh, setting fire to the premises, the Saudi defense ministry says.

www.presstv.ir

New wave of attacks devastates key US base in Bahrain as Iran strikes back

A fresh wave of Iranian retaliatory strikes has crippled a major US air base in Bahrain, with strikes destroying command centers as Iranian forces continue launching firm response to the US-Israeli aggression.

www.presstv.ir

Russia and China Reject Nuclear Claims Against Iran Amid Escalation​

Melania Trump’s UN Speech Criticized for Omitting Iranian Tragedy​

Iran knows where Netanyahu convenes his meetings: Ex-IRGC chief

A former Iranian commander says Iran has completed its intelligence on Netanyahu’s whereabouts.

www.presstv.ir

Israeli-US Strike Hits Iran’s Leadership Council Office in Qom During Session​

New wave of attacks devastates key US base in Bahrain as Iran strikes back

A fresh wave of Iranian retaliatory strikes has crippled a major US air base in Bahrain, with strikes destroying command centers as Iranian forces continue launching firm response to the US-Israeli aggression.

www.presstv.ir

US War Goals ‘Completely Unrealistic’, Iran Can’t Be Bombed Into Regime Change: Former NATO Insider

“The Israeli-American bombing campaign is by no means sufficient to bring down Iran,” Jacques Hogard, retired colonel of the French Special Forces Task Group under NATO in Kosovo, told Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

Here’s the Biggest Sign Iran’s Air Defenses Are Standing Strong, Pentagon’s Planning Backfired

“Initially, it was impossible to evaluate the work of Iran’s air defense troops. But now, there is increasing information that the situation is stabilizing, and that Iran’s air defense assets are capable of neutralizing Israeli and US air targets,” retired Russian Army Colonel and military...

sputnikglobe.com

China Calls for Ensuring Safety of Navigation in Strait of Hormuz - Foreign Ministry

China calls on all parties to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and prevent a negative impact on the global economy, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Tuesday.

sputnikglobe.com

European Gas Prices Reach $700 Per 1,000 Cubic Meters for 1st Time Since January 2023– ICE

Gas exchange prices in Europe exceeded $700 per thousand cubic meters for the first time since January 23, 2023, data from the London-based ICE exchange showed on Tuesday.

sputnikglobe.com

 

[timsk]

Brent Crude will continue to rise while the war escalates. As expected, the volatility is wild with a daily range of circa $6.00. As this market is purely event driven, we have to pay close attention to the news and any sign that one side has landed a significant blow against the other. E.g. if Trump's plan to use the U.S. navy to escort shipping trough the Straight of Hormuz works - we can expect a sharp drop off in price. On the other hand, if Iranian drones and missiles get through the air defences and hit their target - expect another leap up in the price.

Anyone trading with a spread betting platform that offers guarenteed stops would be wise to use them to lock in profits, as the chances are that retail traders won't have time to react to any major news event. So, I recommend a wide stop and try not to get shaken out by intraday volatily as this carnage is a long way from over and, when the effects are felt by the world economy, the oil price will likely rise significantly higher. Near term target is $96.00 and the major round number of $100.00 after that.

As for gold, that's a slightly different story. It's come off its high for now. But this is only temporary, as there's a bounce in the USD$ as people move from stocks to cash, but that bounce is also temporary. When inflation rises (because of the impact of the war) and the value of the USD$ starts to fall again (which it will), gold will resume its march to the heavens. I predict it'll hit £5,000 by this time next year. Weekly chart of Brent Crude, below.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

West's Silence on Schoolgirls Killed in Iran Reveals Its True Face - Russia's MFA

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The lack of condolences or expressions of regret from Western governments over the deadly strike on a girl school in Iran shows the Western world's true face, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Tuesday.

sputnikglobe.com

US Submarine Sinks Iranian Warship in Indian Ocean in First Torpedo Strike Since WWII​

Iran Strikes US Military Infrastructure: AN/FPS-132 Radar Hit in Qatar​

First Since War Began: Iran Launches Missile Toward NATO Member Turkey​

Iranian Fire Reaches U.S. Base In Turkey With First Missile Attack (Video)

NATO air and missile defense systems deployed in the eastern Mediterranean Sea shot down a ballistic missile launched from Iran...

southfront.press

Putin Orders Emergency Evacuation Flights From Middle East for 23,500 Russians​

Veteran War Correspondent Reveals How to Tell When Analysts Talking About Iranian Losses Are Lying

“In every war, destroying a launcher is a very popular claim because it implies that the Israelis have reduced future attacks. This is a domestic and international message that ‘we have achieved the main objectives of the military campaign’,” says Elijah Magnier, prolific journalist and war...

sputnikglobe.com

Silence of World Media on Deaths of Schoolgirls in Iran Defies Description - MFA

The silence of the world media about the deaths of schoolgirls in Iran defies description, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday.

sputnikglobe.com

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

USS Abraham Lincoln flees after precision strike by IRGC drones in Sea of Oman

IRGC Navy has targeted the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier using advanced drones, forcing the strike group into a retreat from Iranian waters.

www.presstv.ir

Global Aviation Faces Crisis as Jet Fuel Prices Skyrocket​

Russian Varshavyanka Submarine Sinks After US Strike on Bandar Abbas Naval Base​

US-Israeli Efforts to Degrade Iran's Missile Might Failed – Military Researcher

The intensity of Iranian missile attacks against the US and Israeli assets in the Middle East does not seem to abate, despite the United States’ claims to the contrary, Konstantin Sivkov, a member of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, tells Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

US and Israeli Claims of Depleted Iranian Arsenals are Just Military Propaganda

American officials claim Iran’s arsenal is dwindling and launchers are running low — but there’s no objective proof, veteran Russian military observer Yury Lyamin, senior researcher at the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, tells Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

Article 5 As A Skeleton Key: Why NATO Is Test-Driving Collective Defense On Iran

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made two statements about invoking Article 5 over Iran within 24 hours — and said the exact opposite each time. First came “readiness.” Then came “not on the table.” This calibrated ambiguity is not a slip — it's a method. The alliance is stress-testing the...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Attack on School in Southern Iran Carried Out From US's Al Dhafra Air Base in UAE – IRGC

The attack on a school in the southern part of Iran was carried out from the US Al-Dhafra airbase located in the UAE, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Friday.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran destroys US radars in UAE, Jordan, satellite images show

Several US radars in the UAE and Jordan have been successfully hit by Iranian missiles and drones as Iranian Armed Forces continue retaliatory campaign against American and Israeli aggression .

www.presstv.ir

US-Israeli barbaric aggression targets civilians, including children: Health ministry

Iran

www.presstv.ir

Massive nationwide rallies condemn US-Israeli aggression against Iran, martyrdom of Ayatollah Khamenei

Iranians fiercely denounced the brutal assassination of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and the ongoing savage US-Israeli aggression against the Islamic Republic.

www.presstv.ir

Op. True Promise 4: Iran launches 22nd wave with new generation missiles

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has launched the 22nd wave of Operation True Promise 4.

www.presstv.ir

Iran Has 'Broken the Myth' of Israeli Military Power: Former Pakistani Envoy

Iran has effectively "broken the myth" of Israeli military supremacy, Asif Durrani, a former Pakistani ambassador to Iran and the UAE, told in an interview with Sputnik.

sputnikglobe.com

Iran Army drone barrage strike US bases in Kuwait, satellite images reveal extensive damage

Iranian Army announced a large-scale strike on US military bases in Kuwait, with satellite imagery indicating precise hits on key facilities inside the American-run Arifjan base.

www.presstv.ir

Iranian Strikes Dispel the Illusion of US Security Umbrella

Almost all the Gulf states, including the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, that host American military bases or troops, have been targeted by Iran in the latest military confrontation between the Islamic...

sputnikglobe.com

Iranian Strikes Set U.S. Base In Kuwait Ablaze, Hit Patriot System And Tanker (Videos, Photos)

Over the night of March 5 and 6, Iran launched one of its largest attacks so far against Kuwait, targeting...

southfront.press

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Iran conducted no attack on neighbors, respects their sovereignty, interests: Army headquarters

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters says Iranian Armed Forces respect the national interests and sovereignty of neighboring countries.

www.presstv.ir

Middle East War Pushes Gulf Monarchies to Reconsider Trillion-Dollar Investments​

US worried over dwindling ammunition stocks in war against Iran: Report

American officials worry about the rapid depletion of the US military’s advanced weaponry amid the ongoing military aggression on Iran.

www.presstv.ir

Planet Trumpland: An ABC from Hell​

Iran Hit U.S. Warning Radars, Combat Drones, Spy Planes At UAE Air Base In Revenge Attack (Photos)

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on March 6 that they had targeted a United States base in the...

southfront.press

220 US forces killed or wounded in Iranian strikes in 24 hours

An Iranian Army spokesman says 220 American soldiers and commanders have been killed or wounded and significant damage has been inflicted on American assets in the region in retaliatory attacks by the Iranian Armed Forces over the past 24 hours.

www.presstv.ir

Iran Declares Ceasefire With Neighboring Countries And Apologizes, But Attacks Continue (Videos)

In a surprise move, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to neighboring countries for attacks launched amid the war with the...

southfront.press

Expensive Energy Putting Europe's Competitiveness at Risk - Russia's Special Envoy

Expensive energy is putting Europe's competitiveness at risk for years to come, Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Russian special presidential envoy for economic cooperation with foreign countries, said on Saturday.

sputnikglobe.com

US Approves Sale of 12,000 Aerial Bombs to Israel for Over $150 Million - State Department

The United States has approved the sale of 12,000 aerial bombs to Israel for $151.8 million, the State Department said in a statement amid the ongoing military aggression against Iran.

sputnikglobe.com

Devastating Israeli Strikes Leave 16 Aircraft Destroyed At Key Airport Near Iranian Capital (Videos)

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced on March 7 that it destroyed 16 aircraft used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard...

southfront.press

No security as long as US keeps military bases in region: Qalibaf

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has warned regional countries that they will experience persistent insecurity as long as they host American military bases.

www.presstv.ir

 

[timsk]

What's next for oil?
Well, the easy predictions of the U.S. and Israel attacking Iran and then the latter closing the Straight of Hormuz have been made. And the knock on effect on the price of a barrel of oil was a no-brainer, as it was clear from looking at the chart that the consequences of the war weren't already built in to the price action. I'm not claiming any great prizes for any of this as it was all broadcast loud and and clear in advance to those paying attention.

Going forward, this could go anywhere. I'm working on two basic assumptions based on past conflicts - especially the proxy Ukraine war with Russia. President Trump has told the U.K. PM not to bother sending British war ships to the region as the war is already won. Four years ago the previous administration was saying that Russia was running out of munitions, the troops were poorly trained and deserting in droves, the economy was tanking, Putin had cancer and the whole enterprise was going belly up. And look how that turned out! So, we can't trust a word that comes out of Trump's mouth, Hegseth and Netanyahu etc. The other assumption is that MSN will go along with their political masters to misinform and mislead us just as they've done with Ukraine. So, unless there's definitive proof that the Iranian regime is toast, assume that it still has a trick or two up its sleeve. Remember, all it has to do is hang on in there and show that the U.S.and Israel have failed to achieve their objectives. If U.S. bases in the region continue to be hit, it sends a loud and clear message to the world that the U.S. protection racket is worth jack shit and nothing like as good as it's cracked up to be. That's a win for Iran.

In the meantime, expect the oil price to continue to rise, but be prepared for some profit taking along the way - especially around major round numbers like $100.00. Once it pushes through that, it's clear sky to the March 2022 resistance level of $140.00. Monthly chart of Brent Crude attached to show the macro picture.

 

[timsk]

Britain Has Just Two Days’ Worth of Gas Stored Up – Sparking Fears of a Supply Shortage as Iran Shuts the Strait of Hormuz and Bombards Gas and Oil Refineries​

Will this situation result in the U.K. government applying pressure on the U.S. to cease it's unprovoked war of choice against Iran? Like hell it will. Will this situation result in the U.K. government removing sanctions against Russia and start importing (relatively) cheap oil and gas from them? Like hell it will. Will this situation result in the U.K. government renewing licences to encourage drilling in the north sea in order to tap into the massive natural reserves the U.K. has there? Like hell it will. One could be forgiven for thinking that the U.K. government doesn't give a toss about the impact that soaring oil and gas prices will have on the british people whose best interests it is supposed to serve. Grrrrrrrrrrrrr!
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