Intuitive contrasted with Analytical, or Technicals contrasted with Fundamentals.

Ducati, Glen( this is purely rhetoric), but lets start at the beginning, if you don't mind? How did the market(s) come about? Where did market speculation come about in its infancy( lets boil it down to the beginning), its probably the best place to start? In its infancy, how did people get along without...mmm lets see, you've probably guessed what i'm going to say next, so i wont say it. What do wonder about this?
 
Glenn,
As this is a psychology based thread, it is bound to get a little philosophical. However, lets work with what we get.

. Your definition of the limited number of TA approaches is rather too limited itself. There are many more than you describe

Are there?
TA, by definition can only profit by following the trend for as long as the trend holds.
Timeframes will vary, but the principal and the rule still hold.

1.....Buy support..(as defined by trendline, horizontal support, MA, PP, Triangles, etc)
2.....Sell Resistance...(as above
3.....Breakouts, Breakdowns

These are simply potential turning points, that may or may not herald continuation of the trend in prices.
How they are determined is a slightly different matter. Here, you have hundreds mabe even more methods of determining price action.
Price can only go up, down, (and in a qualified way sideways). All analysis is bent on determining which of the 2 (3) will predominate.

2. Another well known statistic states that 80% of succesful trading is psychological self-management. So of the 95% who fail, most of the reason for the failure is nothing to do with the technique used.

Hence my interest in the psychological aspects of trading.
However I do not subscribe to the theory that it is individual psychology that is to blame 100%.
Also, I would say that TA contributes directly to the psychological weakness of both individual and market, and that eventual failure of so many is directly attributable to the failings of TA.

And indeed when it comes to investing over time using FA, the psychological component is just as important and just as likely to be the reason for failure.

Dependant upon how FA is used or abused, this could be true or false.
I have focused more on TA, only as no-one seems overly interested in FA. The Fundamentals, actually minimise the "psychological" component for me by quantifying exactly how much speculative interest there is in a given stock, and thereby giving an indication of volatility that may reasonably be expected. If I am seeking volatility and fluctuation, then this is a positive, if not, then I would avoid, might be a simple example.

The probability of it working.The psychology of the crowd (daytrader crowd) and market makers are just behaviours. You are basing your strategy on the probability of particular behaviours.

After much thought I think I know the answer. But what do you, (or anyone) think it was based on?

The 'successful' need 2 things: 1. An edge. 2. The mental ability to apply that edge without emotion, with discipline, consistently over time.

This is not consistent with your 80% stat on psychology.
Either, psychology is the determining factor, or the Technique is the determining factor.

So of the 95% who fail, most of the reason for the failure is nothing to do with the technique used.

To repeat myself a little..........Individual psychology, while important, is not the determining factor, crowd psychology is however germane to trading success or failure.
TA, TECHNIQUE is the methodology of trying to predict CROWD PSYCHOLOGY.

This basic confusion just adds to an already confused state of many traders.
Actually my pal DBP summed it up rather well

used to think that one needed to "get in touch with himself" and examine his feelings and his fears and his hopes blah blah, but I eventually found that if one had a consistently profitable trading plan, the "psychological issues" pretty much evaporated. After all, it is no great leap to imagine that the less confidence one has in what he is doing, the more likely he is to be, for example, fearful (of pulling the trigger, of taking a loss, of cutting profits short blah blah).

Few things breed confidence and discipline as well as a consistently profitable trading plan. And if one is confident and disciplined, what is there to get all emotional about?


RUDE,
Of course it's about the money.
And the thing about money is, learn how not to lose it, and you'll never need to think too hard about how to make it.
 
There are fundamental elements of TA that have nothing to do with support, resistance or breakouts.
That you may disagree is your perogative.
I have said all I wish to say in this thread and stand by it all.

Regards
Glenn
 
Agreed, Glenn, and also, I am prudently keeping quiet. But I support your view.
 
Glenn,

There are fundamental elements of TA that have nothing to do with support, resistance or breakouts.

I appreciate I may not get an answer to this, as you state you have said your piece.
However, what do you consider "fundamental TA" ?
This is a new one for me..........never come across fundamental TA, unless we are talking about a *******ised hybrid.

SOC.
As you seem to know care to expand? Would be useful for me as Glenn may not care to respond..............cheers d998
 
ATTRIBUTION,
To have any chance to learn from your mistakes, you must attribute correctly. This will allow the necessary amendments to your technique, and mental performance.
Attribution theory is concerned with how individuals appraise outcomes of achievement situations.

The attribution theory has an endless list of factors, but for traders 4 categories will probably suffice.......1..Our Ability.....2...The effort put in.....3.....The difficulty of the task......4...The element of luck.

It is important to decide not only which factor applies, but also whether the factor was internal or external. Was the performance due to your input, analysis, or was it due to say an unexpected news release that had a positive effect.

Expectation and reaction are the keys to establishing a stable and consistent pattern to our behaviour. To help ourselves assess our outcome, we need to focus once again on our process goals.

For example the trader that takes a larger loss than expected, and does not break this loss down into process goals, will possibly attribute the loss to incorrect factors.
Once you have correctly attributed, you can work on eliminating the failure of your process, ensuring that it does not repeat.

From self-mastery, it is only a short hop to understanding crowd psychology, which bears no resemblance to individual psychology at all.

d998
 
MOTIVATION.........So how do people become motivated,and what shape does motivation take?........A theory,(a)...those who want to win....(b)...those who don"t want to lose.....is the trader contemplating profits and success,or pain and loss?..........Winning can mean acceptance,recognition from family freinds and peer"s,increased wealth self esteem,self confidence and motivation....Losing makes for a very contrasting picture,loss of self respect,self esteem,no recognition from family freinds,peer"s...a loss of motivation.....Both of these emotional states are based on the theory of want...how much pain will I endure to achieve my goals....how much loss of self esteem can I withstand before the market crushes me?.....

In trading terms,the trader who trades "not to lose" places himself under greater pressure than the trader who trades to win.........There is a positive feedback loop in operation here,positive self image = positive attitude = positive expectations = motivation = increase in performance.....a positive trade = positive self image,self esteem/image/motivation are all closely linked,therefore let us examine self esteem...........Self esteem matter"s,it is more than just self confidence. The very word esteem,etymologically,originates from the Latin "aestimare" to put value on,the value we put on ourselves .........People with high self esteem have a strong sense of self,they like themselves,trust themselves and have a clear sense of purpose......

Many new traders lack self confidence or lose self confidence in their trading after a series of losses.It is imperative to re-build this confidence.....self confidence empowers us to trust in our trading decisions,confidence is usually related to some form of competency (t/a...f/a)..........There are numerous text book"s that cover in great detail any number of methods,I shall focus on some of the more important......

The first every one should be familiar with.....Trying new things.....if you respond with anxiety/fear when entering new trades,spell out the worst case scenario,think how it can be managed,how would a master trader manage the same scenario? create a strategy(trading plan)to control the anxiety,if still worried,don"t take the trade........

Internal dialogue....Studies have shown how influential our internal dialogue can be.If you are reminding yourself what a disaster the last trade was ,what a poor entry you made,terrible exit,changing your mind mid-trade because the market noise spooked you,etc etc,then your internal voice is hurting you,and contributing to your problem.......

What would you say to someone else with this problem?....write it down,repeat this advice to yourself reinforce the positive,eliminate the negative......because we are always talking to ourselves,this has a profound effect on our self esteem..........

Behaving as if.............If you observe,in actuality,or read about how successful traders trade,and then behave as if ...that is you trade as if you were that successful trader,you will feel greater confidence,behaving "as if" may be deliberate,but it is not fraudulent,...as your confidence grows,the changed behavior will feel more natural,and become more instinctive.....

Usually we assume that to change our behavior,we need to feel differently first,very often by changing our behavior first,the way we feel follows very quickly.........Find a time before the market opens to tune into yourself,ask yourself;....how do I feel today...make use of sensory acuity and anchors...what is important for myself today......what can I do for myself....what do I wish to achieve.....what do I need to do today.....what will define success today...what will you be seeing,hearing,feeling,that tells you that you have had a +"VE outcome......

When you construct a sensory profile of achievement,you ensure that you really feel the achievement when it happens,this builds self esteem = confidence = motivation............at the end of the trading day,ask yourself,.....what trading decisions am I proud of......what tells me so relive them....think forward to tomorrows market...

Intuition,falls under self esteem,I am going to omit this topic at the moment,novice traders tend to over-rely and market noise overwhelms them.

d998
 
GOAL SETTING......Having an understanding of how your motivation is made up ,will hopefully,give you an opportunity to direct it...........It is an important step to assume at this stage ,that your motivation to win is now in place.Just what exactly are you trying to achieve?..........

The answer is,of course your GOAL.In order to attain your goal ,first you have to decide what you are really aiming for...........In the process of achieving the OUTCOME GOAL,you need to set yourself some preliminary goals along the way............

In our daily lives and in the trading arena,it is important to be able to identify what our ambition adds up to. It is human nature to want to set goals and then to try to work towards them.....Without a goal, a person is unfocused,with a goal the same person can concentrate their energy and direct it with a purpose................

In basic terms ,goal setting can be departmentalised into 3 main groups......(a) The OUTCOME GOAL..this must be identified and articulated in the first instance.......(b)..Having identified your Outcome goal,you put it to one side,and identify your PERFORMANCE GOAL.If I am to achieve my outcome goal,then I must perform consistently my Performance goals.....(c)......After identifying your performance goal,you must then break your performance goal into technical and intrinsic parts that will create the performance,which produces my outcome..........

Having established the sub-divisions of goal setting we must now look at some tools that will allow us to build our model for producing our process goals...............1...WAGON WHEEL....2...FRAMING.........3...LOGICAL LEVELS........4.....THE META MODEL.....5...MODELLING..........6....OUTCOME ORIENTATION.......7....STATES......1...The Wagon Wheel,draw a circle,and then draw 10 inner progressively smaller inner circles. We now add spokes,each spoke will represent a component of trading....my personal wheel;...(a)pattern recognition,(b)execute entry,(c)execute stoploss,(d)execute exit,(e)patience,(f)concentration/focus,(g)assimilation macroeconomics,(h)assimilation microeconomics,(i)relaxation,(j)commitment,(k)will to win,(l)arousal,(m)conditioning,(n) attribution (o)teamwork........

Each day in your trading log score yourself 1-10,on how you executed each spoke,(process goals). If you are honest,you will in all probability achieve higher scores in some lower in others. This will create an unusual shape on your wheel.Your task is to produce not only a circle,but a large circle within the wheel........The larger and more round your circle the better performer you are becoming. The point to underline is the fact that while most people measure their success by means of comparison to others ,they should be concentrating on maximising their own potential.

You should not be trying to be good at the unusual,but concentrating instead on doing the commonplace unusually well.Constant assessment is paramount....

2...PROBLEM FRAME,have you noticed how,if you change a pictureframe the picture looks different.The way we think can similarly frame our experience,highlighting particular aspects of it.......

Framing is the way we place our experiences to give them meaning.Depending on the frame that we use ,we can experience the same event very differently....the stocks we buy long,never seem to return the profit we felt they should,can we change our current faulty interpretations?.....

With a problem frame we always notice what is not working.Bear this in mind when you follow newswires etc,and ask yourself what is being framed as news............Individuals and institutions,who use the "problem frame" are less likely to model excellence-they just do not notice what is working.

Great contrarians (Warren Buffet) have a different mind set,and observe through a different frame.....With T/A,some charts have a horrible look yet offer great short term rewards.....different frame....

3...LOGICAL LEVELS..are ways of identifying structures and patterns in thinking about,ideas,events,relationships(not your bird)or organisations.They help to understand what is involved,or occuring,and form a hierarchy.

(a)Environment,macroeconomics,what is happening economically in the world,nationally,stocks sector,individual balance sheet........

(b)..Capability,what is this stock capable of in my time frame?.........

(d) Beliefs,our beliefs,values,shape our "frames" do others have the same frame?.....

(e)Identity,is to do with the sense of self,(self esteem)....Logical levels give you an understanding ,what type of information you are dealing with,where a problem in your decision process may reside,on what level,(beliefs)are you making these decisions? And what is the real issue at stake here,do you need to be right?...........

4...THE META MODEL......shows how ,in order to make sense of our trading experience,and the information overload deluging us,we tend to simplify it in 3 ways,....

(a) DELETION,we leave,omit information.....

(b)GENERALISATION,we make broad or universal assumptions based on limited information.........

(c)DISTORTION,we create meaning through concentrating on certain types of information,ignoring,downplay other information (identity,beliefs)...we lose (or mabe never had true objectivity).....

MODELLING,is the process of finding out specifically "how" people accomplish a task,or performing a skill. As a child everyone modeled,as we imitated certain peoples mannerisms/beliefs. As an adult you may have tried conciously to model people who have excelled at something you wished to do better..(Mick Doohan"s riding style,drifting the rear!) Modelling makes the transfer of knowledge possible.It is the foundation of learning.If we know how someone does something they do well,we can learn to do it also,provided we have information that is detailed enough........

OUTCOME ORIENTATION,and STATES,will be covered under CONCENTRATION,........The Wagon wheel is a tool for the process,the subheadings are tools to make your individual W/W,more productive..........cheers D998
 
VISUALIZATION
We are now into the psychological process needed to achieve success. We have addressed 2 area"s,motivation,goal setting.
It is important,both now and throughout the process of achieving these goals,that you clearly identify your Outcome and process goals.

If you visualize correctly you should never lose sight of your process and outcome goals and the methods required to attain them.

Before visualizing productively,you must first be able to centre.This is a skill that progressively blocks out the unwanted exterior distractions.You achieve this by centering on your breathing,relaxing and focusing on a point where you are in control.

Once you have attained a receptive and focused state,transfer (in your mind)to where you trade.On arriving recreate with as many senses,your trading environment,the time of day,temperature,smells(coffee),taste (coffee) tactile,(the chair you sit in),vision,etc,etc...

Every day that you visualize,you feel your skill,confidence,increasing as you move towards your outcome goal,as you perform a particular skill,(pattern recognition,entry exit),you perform faster,less hesitation,less anxiety,^ confidence etc etc.

Choose 6 words that trigger a visualization sequence for you,for example,above the open,above moving averages,on a retracement,good volume on buy side,price target,stoploss,take trade......ok I"ve used more than 6 words but just as an explanation....this is a setup that I trade consistently,it always looks the same I visualize repeatedly the look of this setup,when I see it in real time,I take the trade,execute with no hesitation, no anxiety,no further confirmation.....if reality strays from my look....I exit.

Now with a particular focus on your own key words go through the skill a number of times,in order to identify and reinforce this improved performance.

In a nutshell,this is what visualization is all about. In your mind you can do anything. Piece together all the aspects to create the performance required to win,and if you can see the end result in your mind ,the more likely you are of being emotionally able to achieve your process and outcome goals.

For it to become reality ,visualization must be as precise as possible,incorparating every scenario in order to prevent any eventuality becoming a suprise ,the sharper the image the sharper the performance.

The sequence of events is actually part of your central nervous systems skill learning process.

The use of visualization can be utilized in 2 areas,.......prior to trading,when the market is closed......during trading,to prepare yourself emotionally to perform at your highest level.

Visualization creates the perfect mental imagery .A good visualization session will show you exactly what you are required to do in order to be a successful trader and win!...............cheers D998
 
AROUSAL,
while disciplines such as motivation,goal setting and visualization are conciously introduced by yourself,arousal is a natural emotion that can work for or against you.

the level of arousal is determined by the task (trading) and the level of importance we attribute to it.

arousal is experienced on a continum,at one end,sleeping,the other overexcitement,with adreneline overstimulation.

the requirement for trading is individual,but lies somewhere in the middle.

when I was competeing at world level powerlifting,the level of arousal needed to be at the extreme end,as much adreneline as possible,as powerlifting is a gross skill,requiring less technique than other sports,more brute power.

trading however,is a sport,that requires a balance between calmness and excitement.

over the years I have implemented basic psychological skills to control levels of arousal.

arousal levels will dominate and overwhelm technical skills if allowed to fluctuate beyond the optimal level for individual performance.

the first step is an obvious,but crucial one,.......identify the situations (the more complete your analysis the better) that cause you to become anxious/fearful.

generally it is accepted that the unknown will result in anxiety/fear.
by segmenting and detailing the potential event,and a reaction to that,we have taken the first step to control arousal levels.

by detailing and segmenting every step in the trading plan,we actively take control of the trade,this takes preperation.

preperation is important,many traders,will focus on 10,20,30,or more stocks,even the whole market.

once experienced,not a problem,but until such time,the prep.for large #'s of stocks means that the prep. is by necessity low.

far better to limit your prep.to a select few.
this does not mean the same stocks every day,just the ones you wish to trade tomorrow.
I now only trade 1 futures contract,same every day,my levels are prepared the previous day....bang no hesitation.

detailed prep.allows a predetermined response to EVERY potential situation,it brings arousal levels into your control.

utilise visualisation to practice elements of your trading plan that have raised arousal levels in the past,
might be entries,exits,gaps........

by preparing your mind to react in the way that you have already detailed,in your prep.will result in controlled trading.

control over our emotional responses,allows us to focus more clearly on the market,and in many cases anticipate....get the best price,reduce hesitation,confusion,fear,greed.

your level of arousal and motivation are linked.
they feed of one another,useful in manipulating your own psyche.

arousal,leads into concentration,next topic.
visualisation,is a powerful tool in controlling levels of arousal/concentration.

cheers
 
CONCENTRATION
concentration can be viewed as a conscious ability to turn your attention away from possible distractions,and focus on the important skills required to fulfill your process goals.

every one has had days,where trading seemed easy,when you next have one,note things that seem out of the ordinary,these we must learn to reproduce.

concentration is almost synonymous with our ability to perform optimally.
some people are able to control this on a daily basis,as concentration is nothing more than blocking out the superfluous data/distractions ina trading day.

in many ways trading the US is a huge bonus,as the 1am/3am start is when the normal distractions of a day are absent,phone calls,postman,children,etc.

what remains is the market.
the market is full of distractions,news releases,orders jumping in/out,sellers lining up constantly,not a buyer in sight,US markets overnight results,DJI up/down,etc.

your plan,of course has taken into account all these distractions,phone rings,answerphone..........

you must be disciplined to work in the present tense.
the mind must slow down,and focus,concentrate on 1 objective.....optimal execution.

research shows that by relaxing,controlling arousal levels,eliminating distractions,controlling musculoskeletal function,(breathing,tension in muscles)the sensory system will feed back into the CNS,resulting in relaxation,calmness.

focus/concentration,is enhanced at levels where the cognitive cortex,can increase communication between the left and right hemispheres.

the trading plan is the anchor,that will hold distractions at bay,focus on your plan,eliminate the noise......you already have a response planned to any outcome already from your PREPARATION (correct spelling today)

interest is the next vital component,the more interested we are in a subject,the more concentrated we become,and conversely,the more we concentrate on a subject,the more interesting we find it.

the key resides in the detail (as does god),by paying attention,and preparing in great detail,you are concentrating,your interest is stimulated which leads to really THINKING about your plan,you will unconsciously start to visualise scenario's that may unfold,and your reaction to them,now you are well on the road,as when in the present.....the market will start to form a pattern,or reaction.....as it does every day....

you already have planned,visualised,anticipated,and are ready to act.....you are interested (everyone loves to be right) and by god you will be concentrating....

if you are by nature nervous,hyperactive,multitasking individual,a ritual of physical relaxation techniques,prior to prep,trading becomes important....the body must be prepared in the same way to allow the mind to disconnect from tension in the musculoskeletal system that will feed back into the CNS,providing stressors and emotional tension....increased arousal levels.

rituals,provide step by step checklists that slowly ease you into a deeper level of focus and concentration.

I prepare at the same time each day,no music,no phone calls,cup of coffee,etc.
when I trade,same ritual....a warm up if you like.

rituals help build confidence in preparation,execution,and concentration,ultimately it will be reflected in your results.



cheers d998
 
COMPETITION....Trading.
this is really based on sports psychology and peaking for major competitions,world champs etc.

I have adapted my notes to peak for each trading day.

for trading,the right frame of mind is essential.
when you first start,lack of consistency is a major hurdle.

psychological training starts at a low level,our competency is low.
the next step is to move from incompetence to a conscious level,still incompetent at the skill we are trying to develop,but consciously doing something about it.

the next step is to take conscious competence....and turn it into unconscious competence.....instinctive (instincts can be learned)

using the tennis analogy,from an alternate thread,Gallwey wrote "the inner game of tennis"....could have been trading.

he spoke of self 1 and self 2,conscious1,unconscious2
self1 is the voice that is constantly assessing analysing,and instructing self2.

self1 does not trust self2,and wants to be in control.
optimal performance is obtained when communication between 1/2 is low or non-existant.
this is "THE ZONE"

traders talk about the zone,as do golfers,tennis players,weightlifters etc.
you don't think,you react,and your best game is the result.

in trading,daytrading really,setups appear,your in,out at the top,etc,this level of concentration and optimal arousal state constitutes peak performance.

a good analogy is learning to drive a manual car,
you start thinking about everything,handbrake mirror,gear etc.
now when you drive,just jump in off you go.

self 1 teaches self 2 what/how/when/etc,THEN has to let go.
the more important the task,the more complex the task,the more interest self 1 has the more he interferes.

trading in any timeframe involves self 1 forming the detail of the plan/system,doing the detail work,programming self 2 through visualisation.....and letting go,allowing self 2,to take you into the zone.

Freud was the first to formally recognise the conscious/unconscious dichotomy,and labeled them id,ego,super ego.

conflict was the result of interaction between them.

anyway,in trading,learn to allow peak performance to happen by releasing control to self 2.
when in a trade,execute a plan,do not form a new plan self 1,under competition stress,there will be conflict,and poor decisions result.

cheers d998
 
SAID PRINCIPAL
specific adaption imposed demand.
again this is a principal borrowed from sports.
and in essence states,....you must replicate as closely as possible the actual event as possible,to improve the performance of that event.

in trading terms this will relate to timescales,and position sizes.

the greater the position size,the greater the risk........the greater the psychological stress.

however it is impossible to move to greater position size...without moving to greater position size.
this is partly the reason paper trading is such a poor indicator of potential trading success,
and why when increasing position size,slow and steady is best...gradually allowing your emotional tolerance to risk to catch up.

as regards timeframes,again trading one timeframe successfully does not mean that you can change to another without re-educating your psychological tolerance.

I for example just cannot trade a weekly system,much as I can see the benefits,my makeup currently does not allow such detachment.......must be active.

any change must be gradual and thought out in advance,and adjustments made to the psyh.plan

cheers d998

As you may notice, I have taken my own medicine, and revamped my whole approach to the markets................since I last wrote these 2yrs ago
 
ANCHORS.
what is an anchor?
it is any stimulus that changes your state.so any form of sensory stimuli can trigger an anchor,visual,auditory,kinesthetic,olfactory,gustatory.

anchors can be positive or negative.
an example,
driving along in your car,on comes a song that you haven't heard since.....and it triggers a memory of.......

you are sitting in a trade,and suddenly it gaps badly,just like a trade that caused your largest single loss....

anchors fire assosiation areas in the brain that link to memories,these memories will affect through neuronal dendritic pathways the unconscious part of the brain,triggering your "emotional" reaction.

when you find yourself in an unwanted state,has an anchor been triggered?

when you find yourself responding in a way that is the same as previous reactions,has an anchor been triggered?

when you anticipate being in an activity that is stressful.....trading,....will anchors potentially be triggered,

try to identify positive,and negative anchors,and have a strategised response to any negative anchors.

negative anchors need to be diminished,or if possible removed,usually trying to modify sub-modalities will diminish an anchor.

reinforcement of positive anchors is accomplished by adding additional sensory modalities to the existing one.


cheers d998
 
ASSOCIATION....DISASSOCIATION
these are 2 fundamental coding mechanisms that your brain uses with just about any experience you have.

if you are associated into the experience,you are experiencing it with full involvement.

if you are disassociated,you are disconnected,you are aware,but it does not register an emotional memory.

guess which one you want for trading?

well actually you need both,but you need to be able to switch quickly from one to the other........not easy.

preparation,an important part of trading requires concentration and interest in the topic,try being interested,and disassociated simultaneously.

what I try to do is be highly associated in the preparation phase.....day before,and disassociate from the execution phase.

what I actually found a big help was posting live trades,....although it can be difficult with the timing aspect,everyone watching entries/exits,it allowed me to focus on my plan....more or less,and disassociate from the market noise.

the only way I have found to trigger the disassociation is by "as if"...see earlier post.

this is the state of mind that reproduces the zone,day in day out.



cheers d998
 
CONTRASTIVE ANALYSIS
is the process of comparing and contrasting two things that have elements in common,but which have different outcomes.(successful trade,unsuccessful trade)

by comparing and contrasting the two outcomes,it becomes possible to discover the difference that makes the difference.

this needs to be done not only with the "chart" analysis,but your wagon wheel analsis.

eg.
2 daytrades,1 had clear signal,and was traded,resulted in a loss,but exited at stop.
trade 2,no signal,took a position,stock took off,exited as a large profit was accumulating.

if all your trades are attributed correctly,patterns will start to develop,that will start to dramatically improve your trading.

based on the very limited information presented in the example,what if anything could be deduced,and extrapolated to improve the traders future performance?

cheers d998
 
Keep doing the right things and abandon the wrong things.

And don't forget always protect yourself with stops, tight ones, as tight as possible.
there you have it.
 
The whole of the common characteristics with which heredity and genetics endow individuals of a race constitute the genius of that race. When, however, a certain number of these individuals are gathered together in a "crowd" for purposes of action, that, from observation, the mere fact of their being assembled, there result certain new psychological characteristics, which contrasted with the individual characteristics, differ markedly.

Organised crowds have always played an important part in human history, whether it be tribal, political, military, or workplace. The market, has always been effected by crowds, this phenomenon, with the advent of todays technology, has increased and speeded the crowds involvement by an unquantifiable degree.

All the previous posts, that I shotgunned onto the site last night, really only deal with your individual psychology, and a possible methodology for improving it, or formalising it to some degree, so that it becomes workable.

The fact remains however that, as robust as your individual psychology must be, and make no mistake you must be able to stand aside from the insanity of the crowd, it does not lend any insight into the psychology of the crowd.

The thread "THE EDGE", posits the question............what is the edge, and how do I get one.
The edge, could be defined as, ..........understanding what the crowd will do, why they will do it, and taking either,....advantage thereof, standing aside, or, joining the crowd for a period of time.

Fundamental analysis seeks to take advantage and stand aside.
Technical analysis, seeks to join the crowd, for an indeterminate amount of time.

In many respects, your individual psychology, if ACCURATELY understood will determine the most successful route for you to interact with the markets.
Now I have noticed that on my individual rating on this site, I have been rated, "Highly argumentative, with no substance"

If this assessment is correct, and lets assume that it is, then which of the avenues would seem most likely and productive for my psychology.
Well, of course Fundamentals. Here I can argue with the market to my hearts content, tell the market it's wrong etc.

But if you are by nature a non-confrontational type, don't enjoy arguments, prefer to keep the peace, are happy to consider other peoples opinions, then Technicals might suit your psychological disposition better than other styles.

As the vast majority here are technicals by choice, you then must decide on your level of psychological knowledge, both of yourself, and of the crowd.
It is the psychology of the crowd that you must master in addition to self-mastery, as it is the reaction of the crowd that you must learn to time as exactly as possible.

cheers d998
 
SOCRATES said:
Keep doing the right things and abandon the wrong things.

And don't forget always protect yourself with stops, tight ones, as tight as possible.
there you have it.

Soc, why you gotta go and make it so blasted simple?? Don't you know that complicated could be better and employs man's higher reasoning skills?? I heard of a trader that trades with if I remember correctly with 12 or 17 monitors (can't remember the exact number but it was a large number like one of these). He claims it is like flying the space shuttle. I have a hard enough time watching one screen!
 
Socrates, I find The problem with tight stops is that you have to be exactly right at exactly the right time or you get stopped out again and again and with slippage and costs it soon adds up to an unhealthy loss.

I think putting your stops in the right place can prove to be move effective than just trying not to lose anything.
 
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