Intuitive contrasted with Analytical, or Technicals contrasted with Fundamentals.

Glen & RUDE,

1. Naked ohlc bar charts. No indicators whatever.
2. Occasional reference to volume.
3. The bid/offer price quotes from my broker.

I am quite happy to accept this is how you trade.
However at some point in the process, further information would have been a part of the analysis, that has now been relegated to the subconcious.

Defined as, a non-conscious process of problem solving through pattern recognition and higher order reasoning, developed over time, through, tacit learning and experience, and expressed through both insight and feeling.

Which brings us (me) back to the original premise.
Now, within your 3 remaining criteria, there should be a reasoning process that allows this very limited analysis, to translate the huge amount of information contained in the market, into action and the placing of a directional trade.

The information and framework that have become intuitive for you, usually start out as a belief or value system, formed from your thought process, and influenced by intelligence, education, society, (nature,nurture, etc)

By way of example,
Premise.............The direction of the market in the long term is determined by the earnings produced.
.............................Prices, for any given stock, will be determined by supply and demand.

Would you agree, or do you have an alternate viewpoint or belief. I should point out that I would subscribe to my own premise in this case.

What people are currently willing to pay for it (the Price), which will vary tremendously despite there being no change whatever in the fundamentals. The simple reason being how many houses are available and how many people are wanting and can afford to buy houses at any particular time - which has hardly anything to do with the houses themselves.

Your definition of technicals would seem to bare out at least 50% of my premise, regarding supply and demand.From your definition if we look more closely at (the Price) we can draw some contradicting conclusions when we place it in a context of supply and demand.

From my perspective, a fundamental perspective, price represents an arbitrary value, and price very acurately defines "what I am willing to pay"
Now for a trader, particularly a day-trader, price is simply an entry point long or short, and represents nothing more than a "bet" on the .......direction, and duration of price changes.

How does this represent the dynamic of supply and demand?
Very simply, I as an investor, will absorb supply, and remove that supply from the market, until value has become over-value, or perhaps forever.
The float is diminished, supply reduced.

The daytrader however does not diminish supply of the float, he simply rents it for 30mins or so. This difference in time periods changes quite fundamentally the nature of supply / demand. The knowledge of who is buying, and for what reason, confers a huge advantage to those that know.................thoughts?

cheers d998
 
Written by JOE ROSS

WHAT'S YOUR EQ?
“Trading is a Business", perhaps even the world's most perfect business. I will be showing you that I am not alone in believing that trading is an excellent way to make a living.

What is your emotional quotient (EQ)? Do you know? Are you aware that you have one?

Your EQ involves some of the factors that determine whether or not you will be successful as a trader. We're going to cover a few of them in this article. We’ll be talking about some of the major qualities that go into making up your EQ. You need to know about them if you are to be successful in this business.

SELF-MOTIVATION

One of the primary factors of paramount importance if you are going to achieve success as a trader is that of positive motivation. You might say it is the ability to marshal feelings of enthusiasm, zeal, and confidence. Being able to motivate yourself to pursue relentless training routines is a must in the long run. It is a trait common to world-class performers of every kind. From chess-masters to Olympic athletes, the ability to be self-motivated is evident. To accomplish self-motivation requires that you believe in yourself, that you have a can-do, must-do, will-do attitude. In addition, you must have clearly defined goals, and be optimistic about achieving them. The flip-side of being self-motivated is one of being pessimistic. The pessimist tends to see things in catastrophic terms because he doesn’t really believe in his ability to succeed. A pessimist is likely to interpret a trading loss as meaning I’ve failed, I’ll never make it as a trader. He inculcates the loss into his own personal psyche. Conversely, the self-motivated optimist will blame the fact that he’s had a trading loss on the situation that brought it about rather than on himself. Because of that, he is motivated to make the next trade.

Your predisposition to a positive or negative outlook may or may not be inborn. By trying and with practice, a pessimist can learn to think more positively. It has been documented that if you can learn to catch negative, self-defeating thoughts as they occur, you can restructure the situation in less disastrous terms and see things in a more hopeful light.

SELF-AWARENESS

Self-awareness is the ability to recognize a feeling while it is happening. Learning to recognize feelings and separating them from opinion is the basis for being able to trade intuitively. People who are more sure of their feelings are better guides of their trading lives.

Developing self-awareness requires that you learn to recognize and use what are called “gut-feelings.”

Gut feelings can occur without a person’s being aware of them. All too often, people tend to suppress these feelings rather than to cultivate them and bring them to the forefront.

It takes deliberate effort to become more aware of your gut feelings. You have to tune in on them and learn to evaluate them. Trading from the gut is one of the best ways you can possibly trade. Becoming more astute in emotional awareness is a fundamental building block of your EQ.

EMPATHIC SKILLS

The ability to put yourself in the other person’s shoes is important to successful trading. You have to be able to work with the people with whom you have to deal in the market. The capacity to know how the other person feels is essential to your ability to communicate your own desires. Even over the telephone we transmit to and catch moods from the person at the other end of the line. This is done in such subtle ways that unless you pay careful attention, they are almost imperceptible. Simply the way you give an order in a verbal ordering situation, or the way you say please or thank you, can leave the other person feeling that you are rude, that you feel superior to that person, or that you basically reject that person. On the other hand, your tone of voice, your inflection, the expression on your face when you give a verbal order can be upbeat. It can make the person taking your order feel important and appreciated. You can make that person want to help you and to give you the best possible service. The more clever we are at discerning the feelings of others, the better the quality of signals we can send to them. In case you are saying to yourself, “but I never give verbal orders, I'm an electronic trader,” think again. You never know when your electronic ordering system is going to break down and you find yourself having to call a broker and tell him/her verbally what it is you want to accomplish.

Through years of trading, I have learned to refrain from entering a verbal order to trade when detecting that the person taking the order was angry, frustrated, or in some way not feeling well; refusing to increase risk if that link in the organizational chain was in a state of “disrepair” and unable to function well.

I have remembered to always praise and thank those people who handle my trades well. I have let them know I care and that I appreciate even the smallest of favors and cooperation.

HANDLING MOODS

We all have our moods, both good and bad. That’s part of being human. Moods are part of our character building, and the key to handling moods is balance. In general, we have little control over when an emotional wave will sweep over us. Moods are entirely emotional regardless of the cause. But we do have some control over how long the mood will last, and how we will handle it. Psychologists say that the most difficult mood to escape is that of anger. When you miss a trade because someone else goofed, or you get a terrible fill for unexplained reasons, you can become filled with rage. Outbursts of anger stimulate the arousal system of the brain leaving you more outraged, not less.

An effective technique for dealing with this powerful emotion is that of restructuring. When you get no fill or an unexplained outrageously bad fill, tell yourself that perhaps the market was fast, or maybe the person taking your order was having a bad day.
Try to see the situation in a different light. Restructuring can be applied to any bad mood. The sooner you place what happened to cause it into a more positive light, the sooner you will be able to put the negative emotion to rest.

Another way to defuse anger is distraction. Turn off your computer screen and go somewhere else to cool off. It’s a good idea to do this when you are feeling despair over a serious loss, or you are frustrated with the way you’ve been trading. You need to get away and stay away until you can think clearly. Traders who have gotten into a seemingly impossible situation actually experience brain-lock. The best thing you can do is get away. Make yourself think about something else. Occupy your hands, or get involved in some sort of physical exercise. Take a walk. Do something to force your brain out of its locked state. Your aim should be to distract yourself.

Distraction and restructuring can alleviate depression and anxiety as well as anger and frustration. Add to these deep breathing, meditation and other relaxation techniques, and you will find that you have a fair measure of control over negative moods.

CONTROLLING IMPULSES

Let’s say you’re in a trade and it begins to go against you. You experience an impulse to get out now! But you also have a goal of staying with this trade in order to give it a fair chance. In such a situation, following your impulse sacrifices your goal.

Perhaps the essence of emotional control is the ability to delay impulses that get in the way of your meeting your goals. Controlling impulses is an important part of you EQ and ability to achieve success.

The ability to resist impulses can be developed with practice. When you are faced with an impulse, remind yourself of your long-term goals.

We're reminded of a time when a trader friend of ours wanted to purchase some far-distant out-of-the-money options. He wanted to pay the minimum possible for them, which in this case was $6 apiece. He waited three weeks for those options to come down to that price, but they steadfastly remained at $10 each. Finally, on impulse, because he felt he couldn’t wait any longer, he bid the $10 and was filled. Two days later, and for the next few weeks, he could have been filled at $5. What he did was to allow the impulse to get in the way of his goal which was to buy those options at the lowest possible price. Later on, when those options went up by 30 times the $5 he could have paid for them, his options went up only 15 times because he had paid twice what they were selling for two days later. Instead of making $150 apiece, he made only $75 for each one he had purchased.

THE WORLD’S MOST PERFECT BUSINESS

Richard Russell of the Dow Theory Letters once wrote a piece on the “Ideal Business.” We thought it might be interesting to show you how what we think about trading matches up with Richard Russell’s concept of the ideal business. Our own comments are in bold print.

“(1) The ideal business sells the world, rather than a single neighborhood or even a single city or state. In other words, it has an unlimited global market (and today this is more important than ever, since world markets have now opened up to an extent unparalleled in my lifetime). By the way, how many times have you seen a retail store that has been doing well for years – then another bigger and better retail store move nearby, and it’s kaput for the first store.”

When you are a trader, the whole world and all of the exchanges are your market place to buy or to sell!

“(2) The ideal business offers a product which enjoys an ‘inelastic’ demand. Inelastic refers to a product that people need or desire – almost regardless of price.”

As a trader, you can choose to buy or sell any one of a number of commodities. If there is a shortage of crude oil, you can buy crude oil futures lower and sell them higher. If there is a shortage of gold, you can buy the gold futures. Let’s face it, inelasticity is the basis for every bull market there ever was, and elasticity, its opposite, is the basis for every bear market.
“(3) The ideal business sells a product which cannot be easily substituted or copied. This means that the product is an original or at least it’s something that can be copyrighted or patented.” With futures, you as the trader are the main product and you are unique.

“(4) The ideal business has a minimal labor requirements (the fewer personnel, the better). Today’s example of this is the much-talked about ‘virtual corporation.’ The virtual corporation may consist of an office with three executives, where literally all manufacturing and services are farmed out to other companies.”

Can you think of fewer labor requirements than a single person? You are the only executive and the only employee needed to run your trading business.

“(5) The ideal business enjoys low overhead. It does not need an expensive location; it does not need large amounts of electricity, advertising, legal advice, high priced employees, large inventory, etc.”

A trading business, while it has some overhead, mostly avoids the kind of overhead mentioned here. Probably the largest single item of expense is commissions including fees followed by the costs of data should you happen to require a live data feed. Believe it, some traders actually trade from newspaper prices, subscription chart services, and even delayed data feeds.

“(6) The ideal business does not require big cash outlays or major investments in equipment. In other words, it does not tie up your capital (incidentally, one of the major reasons for new-business failure is under-capitalization).”

Amen to the under-capitalization part. Most small traders attempting to “make a living” trading are woefully short on capital. However, trading futures, because of the leverage involved, requires relatively little capital investment commensurate with expected returns.

“(7) The ideal business enjoys cash billings. In other words, it does not tie up your capital with lengthy or complex credit terms.”

Trading futures is one of the most liquid occupations there is. Cash is generally available within 24-48 hours. No credit involved here.

“( The ideal business is relatively free of all kinds of government and industry regulations and strictures (and if you’re in your own business, you most definitely know what I mean with this one).”

As an individual trader trading your own account, you are virtually free of government regulations except wherein they affect the entire industry. You are subject to exchange regulations, however. These are generally minimal and exist only to keep order in the market place. You don’t know what it’s like to have OSHA, the EPA, the SEC, or the FTC and a few others like them on your back unless you’ve actually experienced the horror in person.

“(9) The ideal business is portable or easily moveable. This means you can take your business (and yourself) anywhere you want – Nevada, Florida, Texas, Washington, S. Dakota (none have state income taxes) or, maybe even Monte Carlo or Switzerland or the south of France.”

This is where an individual trader can really shine. You can port your trading business to many parts of the world. The less you day trade and require a live data feed, the more places you can travel to and live in. As long as you can make a phone connection, and obtain prices within a reasonable length of time, you are in business. And now with access via electronic trading and the Internet, the entire world is your market.

“(10) Here’s a crucial one that’s often overlooked: the ideal business satisfies your intellectual (and often emotional) needs. There’s nothing like being fascinated with what you’re doing. When that happens, you’re not working, you’re having fun.

Here is another situation in which trading really glows. Most individuals trading their own account really and truly enjoy the never ending challenge of the markets.

“(11) The ideal business leaves you with free time. In other words, it doesn’t require your labor and attention 12, 16, or 18 hours a day (my lawyer wife, who leaves the house at 6:30 AM and comes home at 6:30 PM and often later, has been well aware of this one).”

Even an addicted day trader does not have to trade all day long or every day of the week. Trading can be tremendously relaxed and leisurely if you allow it to be.

“(12) Super-important: the ideal business is one in which your income is not limited by your personal output (lawyers and doctors have this problem). No, in the ideal business you can sell 10,000 customers as easily as you sell one (publishing is and example).

Okay, so we only got 11 out of 12 right. Sad but true, when you are a trader, you are IT! You can’t hire a substitute. But you can sell 100 contracts with the same effort it takes to sell 10 contracts.

“That’s it. If you use this list it may help you cut through a lot of nonsense and hypocrisy and wishes and dreams regarding what you are looking for in life and in your work. None of us own or work at the ideal business. But it’s helpful knowing what we’re looking for and dealing with. As a buddy of ours once put it, ‘I can’t lay an egg and I can’t cook, but I know what a great omelet looks and tastes like.’

“ ‘Work is love made visible. And if you cannot work with love, but only with distaste, it is better that you leave your work and sit at the gate of the temple and take alms from those who work with joy.’

“Albert Einstein’s three rules of work:

(1) Out of clutter find simplicity.

(2) From discord find harmony.

(3) In the middle of difficulty find opportunity.”
 
D998

I am quite happy to accept this is how you trade.
However at some point in the process, further information would have been a part of the analysis, that has now been relegated to the subconcious.


There is no further information other than what can be determined from the 3 criteria. It is all handled consciously. i.e. If this - do that.
( I assume that money management is not part of this debate)

"Now, within your 3 remaining criteria, there should be a reasoning process that allows this very limited analysis, to translate the huge amount of information contained in the market, into action and the placing of a directional trade."

There is a reasoning process. It does not take account of 'the huge amount of information contained in the market' - it ignores that information and looks only at the 3 criteria - mainly the price bars.
It is not intuitive at all. It is action and reaction at a conscious level. There is no connection with "a belief or value system, formed from your thought process, and influenced by intelligence, education, society, (nature,nurture, etc)"
I am not capable of profiting from hunches (intuition) because I have them so rarely.

"By way of example,
Premise.............The direction of the market in the long term is determined by the earnings produced.
.............................Prices, for any given stock, will be determined by supply and demand.

Would you agree, or do you have an alternate viewpoint or belief. "


I only consider the supply and demand. The earnings are irrelevant. (Remember the dot-com bubble ? - a good exaggerated example of this). The House analogy should explain this thinking well enough.
The 3 criteria are all that is needed no matter what timescale you are using, from seconds to years.
Most people will add other criteria in the belief that they will help the decision process. Their choice. Unecessary overhead imho. You quoted Einstein - (1) Out of clutter find simplicity.

"How does this represent the dynamic of supply and demand?" Rhetorical question ?

"The knowledge of who is buying, and for what reason, confers a huge advantage to those that know.................thoughts?"
I have no idea who is buying (or selling) or why, nor any need to know. If I can get in at the start of a move, even where the volume is low, before the big players come in, then why should I care who they are or why they are buying ? I was in before them, so they are following me and pushing the price up. Perhaps I know something they don't.
If people can gain advantage from knowing, then good for them.
Each to their own.
Glenn
 
Glenn,
Very interesting reply. Now I should like you not to take my response personally, it is not a personal criticism, just some observations.

There is a reasoning process. It does not take account of 'the huge amount of information contained in the market' - it ignores that information and looks only at the 3 criteria - mainly the price bars.

This is to be expected, as you have previously stated that you are a ..P&V man, so far total consistency

It is not intuitive at all. It is action and reaction at a conscious level. There is no connection with "a belief or value system, formed from your thought process, and influenced by intelligence, education, society, (nature,nurture, etc)"

Now this is where it becomes more interesting. You claim that it is not a belief or value system. This is in point of fact not possible. You believe in P&V, and at some point you would have been a novice looking for a methodology, you settled on P&V for reasons known only to yourself.The belief system that you employ is pure "Efficient Market Theory" whether you realise it or not, you are correct in that it is not "conscious" and it may very well not even be sub-conscious..........but I strongly suspect that it is.

Now, how did it come about?

Have to disagree on that point having traded and invested successfully in stocks for years using only TA.

It would seem experience. Experience is of course a vital part of education. Education will always create a belief and value system, it is just the way our minds work. Success, will beget confidence within the methodology, as well it should. Confidence forms part of a belief and value system
The result is plain to see, you believe in P&V, or from a theoretical point of view EMT.
EMT, as a theory has been put to the sword............yet it works for you !

Therefore, you do in point of fact conform to my definition of intuitive
Defined as, a non-conscious process of problem solving through pattern recognition and higher order reasoning, developed over time, through, tacit learning and experience, and expressed through both insight and feeling.

As, you utilise a non-conscious process of problem solving through pattern recognition.......learnt through experience. You have eliminated the "emotional" component through a set of rules, that you follow with discipline.

only consider the supply and demand. The earnings are irrelevant. (Remember the dot-com bubble ? - a good exaggerated example of this). The House analogy should explain this thinking well enough.

Belief # 2
"consider the supply & demand..........are placed on a lower rung of your hierarchial belief system.
Belief # 3
"The earnings are irrelevant"..possibly at the bottom of your belief structure.

This last belief, is in direct conflict (purely from a theoretical view) with EMT, which asserts the "Market is always right"
Quite pointedly the market was very obviously horribly wrong in the first instance with dot-com issues.
Is this contradiction strong enough to cause a conflict? (need a definition of conflict in psychological context)

I have no idea who is buying (or selling) or why, nor any need to know. If I can get in at the start of a move, even where the volume is low, before the big players come in, then why should I care who they are or why they are buying ? I was in before them, so they are following me and pushing the price up. Perhaps I know something they don't.

This paragraph contains 2 statements that contradict each other....."I have no idea who is buying (or selling) or why, nor any need to know."

"before the big players come in," implies that you expect to be right, and therefore additional volume will appear, pushing up price..........therefore, you "believe" that you "know" what will "probably" happen..??? Is this not intuitive on some level?


cheers d998
 
Glenn said:
Have to disagree on that point having traded and invested successfully in stocks for years using only TA.
Everything else is just a distraction.
Glenn

yes you could do it . I have done it too but only in a super bull market , with small caps. and with 10 days settlement free . a virtual stock future.

I was refereing more to long term investing as opposed to short term trading.
 
Glen and Ducati, did you know Einstien was 'classed' as a 'visual mathematician', something to do with being able to spot patterns and all that.
 
These are excerpts from the Joe Ross article.

Self-awareness is the ability to recognize a feeling while it is happening. Learning to recognize feelings and separating them from opinion is the basis for being able to trade intuitively. People who are more sure of their feelings are better guides of their trading lives.

I would suggest that self awareness is actually a great deal more than this simplistic definition.
Self awareness, would encompass all aspects of your,

1.....Cognitive abilities...........education, intelligence, learning spectrum,
2.....Emotional temperment......predispositions within specific situations
3.....Biases.......an awareness of force fitting your analysis
4.....Experience.......length of time, success or failure history,
5....Training......only a limited awareness of possibilities
6....Health........everything suffers if you are ill
7....Personal life.......happy, or not
8....Financial requirements..........do you need this to work to earn a living
9....Pressure......self, or from freinds, family etc.

Opinions, as contrasted with analysis.
How do you quantify that the decision is based on your analysis, or whether, an opinion has crept in...........is there a difference

This is potentially one area that mechanical system based trading can really clarify the process.

Developing self-awareness requires that you learn to recognize and use what are called “gut-feelings.”
Gut feelings can occur without a person’s being aware of them. All too often, people tend to suppress these feelings rather than to cultivate them and bring them to the forefront.

This would seem to correlate to "Intuitive" which we have defined as,
Defined as, a non-conscious process of problem solving through pattern recognition and higher order reasoning, developed over time, through, tacit learning and experience, and expressed through both insight and feeling.

Obviously this is being thought of as a viable and important component in short-term trading. A number of different authors have questioned the role of intuition within trading.
Can it be taught, or learnt?
How important is it to long term success?
Does it account for the appalling failure rate ascribed to trading?
Is it just something you are born with?


Any ideas or thoughts?
d998
 
d998
I think you are trying to read to much into this. It seems that you are trying to fit me into your belief system.

Look at it this way:-
If you started learning about the market with a view to understanding the basic info avaliable and trying to make use of it (Bar charts) and discovered that you could turn a profit from that, then you have no need to absorb all the other stuff.
There was no belief system, there was just a learning process, just as a baby learns to talk and walk.

From time to time a did look beyond the simple stuff and discovered that nothing made it any better.
In fact other things confused the picture - fundamentals, indicators, news, rumours, tips etc etc. So I had no difficulty in staying with the simple stuff.
I know many people who cannot resist believing that the more they know about a stock or whatever, the cleverer they will be in deciding how/when to trade it.
For 5 years or more I have sent an elderly friend a chart analysis for his share portfolio each Friday (with appropriate legal caveats).
If I miss a week he is soon on the phone asking why. He knows that my simple analysis is far more informative than anything his broker tells him. And yet he still cannot resist speculating on things he reads in the newspaper about one of his stocks even though he knows that I have already told him where the price is going.
My point here is that it is almost impossible for some to believe that the simple stuff is all you need, despite being confronted with 'proof' regularly over time.

"As, you utilise a non-conscious process of problem solving through pattern recognition"
It is a very conscious process. I have to examine a chart and objectively find what I am looking for. There is nothing non-conscious about it. To use an example, if I was looking for a particular pattern, then I have to keep looking until I find it. I don't think there is anything non-conscious about that.

Regarding EMT I have never ventured to think about it because I never found it necessary to do so.
If I have a belief system of any kind, it is one which has come about as a result of what I have learned, rather than the belief system being in place before everything else.

You say that the market was horribly wrong vis-a vis the dot-com bubble. Presumably you mean in comparison to the fundamentals. That is true as we all know.
But I quoted that as an exaggerated example of what happens to all stocks all the time in order to make that point.
In other words the market is almost always 'wrong' when compared to the fundamentals. But I don't think that 'wrong' is a useful word or concept in this connection.
There is an old saying, for example, in connection with Bear markets. "When the tide goes out in the harbour, the good ships go down along with the bad".

"therefore, you "believe" that you "know" what will "probably" happen..??? Is this not intuitive on some level?"
No, it is simply based on probability. i.e. If this, then probably that.

"Belief # 2
"consider the supply & demand..........are placed on a lower rung of your hierarchial belief system."

Don't understand what you are saying here. I'll think about it.

"Belief # 3
"The earnings are irrelevant"..possibly at the bottom of your belief structure."

Not at the bottom, no. Just not in the structure at all.

Think that's covered all your queries. Have to dash out til this afternoon.
Glenn
 
gut feelings should always be confirmed by your own researched opinion.

o/w you are just punting.
 
wisestguy said:
yes you could do it . I have done it too but only in a super bull market , with small caps. and with 10 days settlement free . a virtual stock future.

I was refereing more to long term investing as opposed to short term trading.

I did say trading and investing if you look.
Glenn
 
the point is that some people love semantical BS and will almost deliberately choose to " loosely " interpret any statement and turn it into yet another mindless semantical troll.

perhaps the question should be re-directed.
 
Glenn,

I think you are trying to read to much into this. It seems that you are trying to fit me into your belief system.

There is always that possibility, but it is one that I am aware of and trying to avoid.
The simple point is that as humans, every thing we do cognitively has a belief structure attached to it

Regarding EMT I have never ventured to think about it because I never found it necessary to do so.
If I have a belief system of any kind, it is one which has come about as a result of what I have learned, rather than the belief system being in place before everything else.

Education will always provide the framework for a belief system. Experience, is education, therefore .........a belief system

So even a "NULL" belief is still a belief.
Without belabouring the point, as it is not vitally important, this null belief that you espouse, is in point of fact responsible for your success.

Now what interests me is this.
Of the members on this board, it would seem the vast majority are TA.
You have the CANSLIM methodology that sits in FA territory.



"As, you utilise a non-conscious process of problem solving through pattern recognition"
It is a very conscious process. I have to examine a chart and objectively find what I am looking for. There is nothing non-conscious about it. To use an example, if I was looking for a particular pattern, then I have to keep looking until I find it. I don't think there is anything non-conscious about that.

Well it would seem that there is. As proven when the thread "CHART PATTERNS TOSH" revealed a variety of different responses and analysis to the same chart, everyone interpreted the same information in a different, and very often opposite way. Of the #'s utilising TA, statistics would lead us to believe that 95% fail.Now TA really from a theory point of view has only a limited # of strategies and tenets.

1.....Buy support..(as defined by trendline, horizontal support, MA, PP, Triangles, etc)
2.....Sell Resistance...(as above)
3.....Breakouts, Breakdowns

As defined on a price chart, within the timeframe of your choosing.
The rules and basics are simple, yet so many people have so many problems making this work. .......Why?

Is it that as alluded to by a number of different authors, that the successful discretionary trader is using intuition, based on the same basic rule set that everyone else uses, and fails on?
What seperates the successful, from the failing?

PROBABILITY..........always a favorite one for all traders and investors.

No, it is simply based on probability. i.e. If this, then probably that.

This is as true for investors utilising FA, as it is for traders utilising TA.
Probability is our belief that if this PATTERN presents itself (chart pattern, or pattern of earnings) then the most LIKELY outcome is XYZ.

Now, I am not arguing the validility of PROBABILITY, I am questioning the validity and process of reaching a probability calculation.
What types of information will best provide a dependable probability calculation.
How probable is the PROBABILITY. When I traded futures, some setups gave me far more confidence than others.........I was assigning probabilities to my probabilities.

For example, intra-day, on the NQ, I would look for a pullback to an intra-day pivot point, and slightly above /below was fine, with a very oversold on $TICK, with an oversold on TRIN, if this all lined up as a support point on a 180mins chart........I bet the house....(with a stop)

But what was all the above really based on?
It was based on the psychology of the crowd (daytrader crowd) and market makers.
Is this a quantifiable strategy, or a qualitative strategy?

Glenn, appreciate your time answering.
Could you do me the favour of providing an analysis of CPE.
I would rather avoid it as my own bias will creep in.
cheers d998
 
D988

OK
Frankly I'm not realy interested in a philosphical debate. I'll stick to some more tangible stuff in response.

1. Your definition of the limited number of TA approaches is rather too limited itself. There are many more than you describe.

2. Another well known statistic states that 80% of succesful trading is psychological self-management. So of the 95% who fail, most of the reason for the failure is nothing to do with the technique used.
You therefore cannot attribute the 95% failure rate to TA itself.

And indeed when it comes to investing over time using FA, the psychological component is just as important and just as likely to be the reason for failure.

"What seperates the successful, from the failing?"
The 'successful' need 2 things:
1. An edge.
2. The mental ability to apply that edge without emotion, with discipline, consistently over time.
The 'failing' have one or both missing.

"For example, intra-day, on the NQ, I would look for a pullback to an intra-day pivot point, and slightly above /below was fine, with a very oversold on $TICK, with an oversold on TRIN, if this all lined up as a support point on a 180mins chart........I bet the house....(with a stop)

But what was all the above really based on?"


The probability of it working.
The psychology of the crowd (daytrader crowd) and market makers are just behaviours. You are basing your strategy on the probability of particular behaviours.

"Could you do me the favour of providing an analysis of CPE."
I have an edge. Analysing something will expose it to all and sundry. i.e the competition.
No thanks.

Cheers
Glenn
 
Ducati, Glen, why do people lose money on the markets? Infact, why do people choose to participate in the markets at all? Money? Is this too shallow...maybe? If i started a new thread entitled 'Why do you trade or invest?', what do you both think the possible answers or statements would be? Two answers, two main answers would be, "money" or "i'd just like to see if if could get it right or not". Let's say it's 40-40, with 20% for 'other' answers, if that. The point i am trying to make is this. Does a person get involved in the markets to prove anything to themselves, to prove anything to other people, to make money or just to prove to themselves that they can make it work( although without putting money on the line, an individual is proving nothing to themselves) this does not apply to paper trading in the beginning by the way. Any thoughts?
 
I've kind of had this discussion with socs, and to be honest, nobody was right or wrong? from where i was standing. Myself, i'm in this business for money, plain and simple. As far as i am concerned i need to trade the 'bucks', it gives me a 'realistic' edge, rather than a 'theoretical' 'perspective'. I know, somebody is sure to say that "it's all theory anyway, until fruition", come on, you know the score? RB.
 
O.K. let's say everybody is in it for 'the cash', cash and psychology. The two have created empires, the opposite is also true. The different ways of 'going about the markets' is negligeble. It really does not matter how you go about it, the main objective is to get it right, right for money. Ducati, i don't want to flatten this thread with a round about way of saying " it's up to you", and all that, far from it. Maybe your original thread should have read " why do you trade the way you do?" Just a thought, as always, mate. RB.
 
By the way my last thread seems a bit contradictory, but i won't spoon feed the context, i can't be bothered.
 
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