IndianBubble ?

[Hook Shot]

Been doing some work on alternative markets - bored I suppose .... or maybe looking for something different [fresh] ?

Anyway........ Indian markets have potential to move 3-5% within a week - when the mood takes them .... and this makes them SEXY from a lazy traders viewpoint.

Anyone trading these markets already - or interested in taking a wild ride ?

NB: Benchmark Sensex Index is around 12000 but has been around 8000 approx 3m months ago during a sell off!

Great Market for traders & longer term strategic players - IMO.

Hook Shot

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

Anyone trading these markets already - or interested in taking a wild ride ?

Yes, I've been positioning trading it for the last year or so. I didn't spot it until November, but at least got that leg of the run. Unfortunately I held on a bit long and got hammered at the start of the May sell off before bailing out. I got back in at the start of July, so it's been a bit up and down since then, but currently in the money nicely. I'm using a customised MACD for timing, but it might be a bit slow given the market's volatility.

BTW if you like this, have a look at TEM.L - a well-run and nationally diverse emerging markets investment trust which shows similar performance / volatility, and has sufficient liquidity to work as a good trading instrument (NMS is 25,000 shares, or some s/bet firms cover it). Currently long of that too....

 

[Hook Shot]

Good to meet you Jack. Thanks for info will check out TEM I'd lost track of it since bear market -drat! Yep volatility has dried up range wise - possibibly indicative of a big move coming ??? After all we have not taken out 12k on Bombay Sensex so this MAY be a lower high - and besides this upswing needs a pause ..

I want and pray for a serious retracement to get long - place my stop and forget about it....lets see

Sorry - the low was around 8800 not 8000 but from sound of things you already knew that. I take my hat off to you for getting in on the blow off surge - almost a doubler I think.

Will post some analysis from a site I found recently in a bit.

Cheers
Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

Indian Technician's Analysis

Enjoy

http://content.icicidirect.com/ULFiles/UploadFile_2006949554.asp

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

Thanks for posting analysis. I'll always go by my own signals, but it's nice when someone else is in agreement!

 

[Tanvin]

Out of interest, which broker(s) do you use to gain access to the Indian or even other EM markets?

Do you trade the Sensex as a derivative, ETF or individual shares?

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

I use either the S&P Nifty Fifty India index through IG, or JII.L (a managed inv. trust but relatively liquid and correlates closely with both indexes).

 

[Hook Shot]

Jack no probs - I hear you.

Tanvin - being UK based I would use standard brokers to buy uk listed investment trusts like Templeton Emerging Markets or possibly JP Morgan India. There are some other listed investment type vehicles which invest in specifics like Commercial Property or Hospitality Sector and I'm currently evaluating them for my pension.

As for trading - the Indian market is very tricky probably more so than the US markets. The dow has range this year of 1000pts give or take but in the indian mini bear market the market eventually fell over 3800 pts pretty quickly - in fact you probably remember the one day of the crash when it was down over 10%! That's pretty hairy.

I'm still interested because I want that kind of volatility - but I want to wait until the market is stretched enough to make a big move more likely. Pity I don't stick to that method more often but that's another story...

It should be "relatively" easy to play this market if the trader is patient and waits for the openings. Just before the May slide it was pretty obvious that something had to give - the market was accelerating up 500pts one week then up 700 the next etc So when I say tricky shorts were getting crushed despite having commonsense on their side. I remember that movie from 1999/2000 so I waited ....... I was like a little child in early part of May as it left 12k behind and HAD to break 13k next or the bubble would burst. We know what happened - shame I did not have a bigger short position but maybe I'm being GREEDY.

On to your question - sorry - I can only trade Nifty futures at present with IG index or Finspreads.com I say only because I would much prefer the larger Sensex (12k vs ~3500 for Nifty). The thing I don't like though is they have monthly expires and I would prefer the quarterlies. Good News maybe around the corner since I hear US will soon be listing Sensex futures similar to the ones traded in Bombay. Hopefully then the spread guys will trade it too.

So - sexy but dangerous. I'll stick to very overbought or oversold situations to make my money trading India. With markets hovering below 12k on Sensex it's getting close to a trade - as you probably know the High was around 12670. I'm long term bullish but not at these levels!

Hook Shot

 

[Tanvin]

Many thanks to both of you. I wonder if IG acts just as a market maker on their Indian trades or do they hedge their client's posittions in any way.

The Gulf indicies are equally volatile and quite liquid, shame they're also difficult to access as well.

 

[Hook Shot]

Not sure about market making with IG and hedging sorry!

You're dead right on Gulf indices .......but I heard from somewhere that short sales either weren't possible or were difficult to transact. Either way they're out of bounds but India will do fine.

If you're an investor as well you might want to check out Trinity Capital - TRC. They recently raised money to invest in Indian real estate - this is NOT a recommendation but share are at their lows and pretty close to cash value. The price is implying they won't make any money in property in the future - I think that's overly pessimistic in the long term. But I've been wrong before so .........

Hook Shot

 

[Tanvin]

Thanks for the heads up, I'll investigate.

 

[jklondon]

great thread keep it comming - did a few trades on JPM India Fund - will check out the others mentioned

 

[Hook Shot]

Tanvir, jk no probs guys - will certainly try my best although I might require some help along the way - to check that I'm on the right path!!
example what the longest winning streak on the Sensex this year 7, 8 10d ?? Whats the largest swing move this year before a 2/3d countertrend pullback/bounce ?? These are the sorts of things I'll be using to check when to go long or short ...........as well as the usual support/resistance ... so be warned I might come begging!!!

All the best
Hook Shot

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

Phew - got into Indian trade just before close Friday been keeping me awake all weekend - then pow - I took the money and ran - nice little bundle. Probably more to come but not losing money is what it's all about and anyway spreads kept on expanding and contracting so trailing stop was difficult

All the best
Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

Mumbai Meltdown ......

Looks Like I got frustrated far too early the bundle would have been almost two!

http://in.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^BSESN&t=5d

 

[Hook Shot]

Check out the volatility in prev msg 900 ish this wk - you won't get that in Dow !!

Time for a second bit of cherry ? Not telling!

Hook Shot

 

[mzpresi]

indian market / online broker

I think too, the indian market is very interessting!

By searching the futures on indian markets, I have found the NIFTY and the SENSEX.

Do you have experience with an online broker in that market?

 

[Hook Shot]

Sorry MZ I only use Spreading companies - like IG index or sometimes finspreads. They only offer nifty futures and only one month at at time. I think they use pricing from Singapore exchange but not sure.

I don't trade india that often just when it gets really stretched .... so Spreadbettors are okay. However they have a habit of widening the spreads so it can be difficult sometimes. Maybe I should get a broker rather than a bookmaker!

All the best

Hook Shot

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

Here's what I've been trading as a proxy - JII.L, currently long. Fib levels have been quite effective since the April peak as you can see on the chart - will be watching carefully to see if the break through the last resistance level can be maintained - if it starts fading back will want to take profits.

 

[mzpresi]

hello Hook Shot

thank you for your post.

greetingg, mic