Income from betting exchanges

[Roberto]

Do Racing2win give any explanation as to how they arrive at the selections or type of race etc?

Not really. They make some general observations in the book, but not enough for you to work out the selections for yourself of course (which you can understand, when they want to sell them at £77 for 4 weeks).

Update: Friday 22nd, 2 races, 1 won (1.45 Sandown, 2 selections), 1 lost (6.30 Newton Abot, 2 selections). I lost about 1% of my bank.
Saturday 23rd, 2 races, both won (3.40 Leicester, 2 selections, and 3.45 Sandown, 2 selections). I made about 4%.

 

[Trader333]

I am always concerned about using any approach that relies on third party skills as opposed to being able to understand how selections are arrived at.


Paul

 

[Roberto]

I am always concerned about using any approach that relies on third party skills as opposed to being able to understand how selections are arrived at.

Me too, Paul, but the way I look at it is this: if something's making consistent profits which are reliant on third-party skills rather than my being able to understand how selections are arrived at, I'd rather use it, in addition to everything else I'm doing, than not use it.

It's as simple as that. And in such a case that's the only choice I have, isn't it?

I'm not saying that this _is_ such a case, of course: it's far too early to say that, although preliminary indications certainly suggest that at the very least it's rather better than most.

(Update: April 24th, no selections).

 

[flyer]

Hi Chaps,

Sorry for butting in but has anyone seen this software before: http://www.bettingbots.com/

and no Im not selling/promoting it before anyone asks!!!

Cheers,

Nigel..

 

[jwhite8359]

Betting Bot discusion.

http://www.racing-systems.co.uk/cgi-bin/boardp/discussion.pl?forum=2&discussion=4566

Maybe of interest.

 

[flyer]

Hello jwhite8359

Thank you for that..... I will have a good read up.

Nigel.

 

[Roberto]

3M method update: 25th April, no selections. (No great surprise, in fact maybe even a slightly encouraging sign, because the racing today looks absolutely awful to me).

 

[Roberto]

Who knows about football?

I know absolutely nothing (but _nothing_!) about football, but I'm assuming that one or two people in this thread will be able to make comments about the possible viability (or lack of it) of what's below ...

Apparently draws are comparatively rare in football matches broadcast live on TV? (I can't begin to understand why that should be so). I've seen it alleged that it's possible to make consistent and steady profits by betting on the exchanges whenever a match is broadcast live. At the beginning, lay the draw (and have a small saver stake backing the 0-0 draw). As soon as the first goal is scored, the odds on the draw will lengthen considerably, enabling you to back the draw at a much higher price, thus (with appropriate staking, obviously) ensuring a profit. Does this sound feasible, and would it be practicable?

 

[stevespray]

Take a look, there is a game on this evening. Arsenal vs Tothenham from Highbury.

I guess that the initial odds will vary hugely on the two teams playing. If you have a strong home team then the monies received for laying the draw could be quite poor and you could expose yourself to quite a bit of risk.

Can you back a nil - nil ? Yes - I see it 13.5-1

Ok, I'll give it a go.

I laid the draw for £30 at 4.1 (3.1-1) and backed the nil-nil at 14-1 with £7

My liability in the event of a draw is £93
If its stays nil-nil I'll pick up £91

Lets see how it goes,
Steve.

 

[Roberto]

Thanks for replying, Steve ...

If you have a strong home team then the monies received for laying the draw could be quite poor and you could expose yourself to quite a bit of risk.

I see ... that's not so clever, then. I was naively hoping there might be a risk-free way to do it!

My liability in the event of a draw is £93

I can't access Betfair at the moment - the first time this has ever happened (but a new hazard worth thinking about, although one can always phone them, I suppose ...). But presumably after Arsenal scored the odds lengthened on the draw enabling you to back it for a higher price?

Edit: I see now the draw is about 8/1, which looks promising if you could lay it at 3.1/1 ... but of course, quite a lot of time has now elapsed without another goal, and what matters is more what the price was after the goal was scored, I suppose ...

 

[stevespray]

As soon as the goal was scored the odds on the draw went to 6-1

 

[Roberto]

Thanks very much, Steve (I was out for dinner at the key moment) ... glad you made something on laying the draw, anyway.

 

[stevespray]

I made more than that. Spurs never really looked like scoring apart from a few moments near the end. Due to this I covered the draw which I laid with a backing at 17-1 with about 1 min to go.

Steve.

 

[rgsharp]

Enjoyed the football thread, food for thought there?

I am sure I read that there are often football arbs between lays/bets and spreads on same markets, but like Roberto, I am a hopeless when it comes to football. Any ideas?
Richard...

 

[Roberto]

Meanwhile, a quick 3M Method update for 26th April: a better day today. 2 races, 2 winners, 2.35 and 3.45 Punchestown. +4.2% of bank at 3% staking.

 

[Euro_d]

And I still throw caution to the wind and using 10% stakes, bank up 16(ish)%.

Fortunately there is still money there.

I like the debates on football arbs and look forward to more.

I have tried but it seems very difficult to get a return. Maybe I should try using different exchanges?

Any ideas?

 

[Roberto]

I like the debates on football arbs and look forward to more.

Well don't look at me: I don't know any more. I don't even know that one. (Where's Peter when you need him?).

I was thinking today about what I asked about yesterday, and it struck me that possibly the reason it's recommended only for games televised live has nothing to do with the fact that a draw is any less or more likely under those circumstances, but simply because one can rely on healthy in-play liquidity on the exchanges if people are watching on TV, so it's safe to assume that there'll be a big change in the price for a draw after the first goal? "Obvious", you may say, but I've only just (sort of) realised it ...

Edit: another 3M Method update (27th April): no complaints about today, again. 2 races, 2 wins. Punchestown 2.35 (2 selections) and Lingfield 3.40 (2 selections), +6.7% in total for me, with 3% staking. Dave, you must have have cleaned up yesterday and today!

 

[Euro_d]

Yep, got a silly cheesy grin!

With 10% I am up 20 odd percent today. Today has more that paid for the months service so, yep me too, still satisfied.



Being a totally anti gambling man, er, isn't horse racing and SB stocks / indices gambling? Well, I am trialing another service that targets only handicaps and very high odds, normally at least 8. So far to date (5 days trialing only) they are showing a very healthy profit and Monday had a superb 3 x total stake return

So as not to be accused of advertising PM if you want the details or if you want me to PM you on a regular basis regarding performance.



Personally I like the idea as you can stake very low for the chance of some impressive returns.

 

[Roberto]

Being a totally anti gambling man, er, isn't horse racing and SB stocks / indices gambling?

IMHO horse-racing is undeniably gambling (which doesn't mean that a few people can't make a living from it, of course), whereas SB stocks/indices is not intrinsically any different from trading them any other way, if your trading plan proves that for whatever reason (usually avoiding CGT) SB is the most viable method for you. (For myself, it is for indices, but not for individual shares which I hardly ever trade anyway).

Well, I am trialing another service that targets only handicaps and very high odds, normally at least 8.

Personally I like the idea as you can stake very low for the chance of some impressive returns

Interessant, mon ami. This calls for very realistic and careful money management, bien sur. As you doubtless know.

So as not to be accused of advertising PM if you want the details

Will do; always interested in such matters. Thank you in advance.

 

[talk4]

Wow just read through this thread and it covers a lot of what I have been doing recently (and losing money at). Some comments:
1. There are more up to date results for the 3M method at http://www.racingtowin.info/newresults/index.php Too volatile for my liking but as has been pointed out, probably the wrong time of the year right now.
2. Have tried laying and backing soccer draws in-play many times since getting the ebook, never seem to make a profit overall as there are too many wild cards. For example I get out with a loss at the recommended time and then a goal is scored the next minute. Maybe it only happens to me.....
3. Lay2profit was mentioned. The first 3 days I joined they had 3 losers (winners) which lost me a tidy sum as these were 6/1 ish. then they had a rather spectacular fallout with their tipster who emailed (spammed) their mailing list. Having said that, if you've got the guts (I haven't) to stick with them they do appear to be in profit, but haven't got a long track record.
4. Another service you may have come across is Layers Paradise. Again a poor couple of months, and I'm not sure about their lay place service as prices are given as 1/5 SP which is much less than is ever available on the place market on Betfair, so losers actually cost punters a lot more. Did point this out but went unacknowledged, though Gary who runs LP does seem a genuine guy.
5. Been beta testing STW available at http://www.sportinglot.com which uses the Betfair API. Still in beta but should have some useful functions for trading when it's launched next month.
Having just about wiped out my bank laying this month (I'm just about to jump ship from the Bismark too) I think trading is the only way to recover, so will take a much closer look at what Peter has to offer..