Income from betting exchanges

[Euro_d]

I and a few others have been watching the Brimardon thread and the discussion has wandered toward general alternatives to enhance our "normal" trading.
I have played on and off for a few years on the technical (as opposed to form analysis) backing and laying of horses on the betting exchanges, e.g. Betfair.
Up until very recently I was spectacularly unsuccessful and have been sucker to many overpriced schemes that turn out to be useless! The exception is my current "information provider" who has given impressive returns on my modest Betfair account. Early days as I have only been subscribed for 6 weeks but I will post results.
As I am now trading Eruopean stocks and indicies more or less full time I now have the time (no more full full time job to look again at income from the sport of kings.
In the Brimardon thread I raised the topic of laying horses (hoping horses will loose) which is acting as a traditional bookmaker. I am sure there is money to be made?
Rgsharp posted an interesting reply and raised the topic of arbitrage.

If anyone has knowledge of the subject of arbitrage or indeed anything related to making income from laying perhaps we could share our experiences and complement our trading income.
Cheers
Dave

 

[Trader333]

Yes it is possible but to make best use of this you would need to use the Betfair API and have software that allows the simultaneous placing of two bets. This is hugely under utilised because there are very few developers who have software that can do this. However, using the Betfair API allows you to place simultaneous bets in fractions of a second which gives a major edge over other users of Betfair. You would need to know that you can make good money doing this because the cost of subscription to using the API is not cheap.

On another thread I had people questionning my knowledge and ability in this area which is fine but I have since decided that I am not prepared to say any more about this other than very good money can be made and that I do have a reasonable ability to write software applications but would not consider doing so for commercial purposes.


Paul

 

[Euro_d]

Hi Paul,
Interesting, I will look at API but I personally do not have the knowledge or time to write such programs.
Perhaps you would be kind enough to tell us (without divulging your own hard work) why the almost instantaneous placing of bets is advantageous.
Dave

 

[Roberto]

I've been using Betfair for a year or so, and with increasing interest. I'm not very computer-literate at all, but it's clear even to me (mostly from watching events "in-running" closely) that there must be many good opportunities for almost-guaranteed (or at least very high probability) profits for someone with suitable software to be able to take advantage of those very frequent situations in which I've found myself thinking "I wish I could get two bets on at the same time"!

I'm sure I'm among the many people dismayed at how you were insulted by an idiot in another thread, Paul (it seems to be increasingly common at this site, not that that makes it any more tolerable, of course), but for what it's worth (if anything, now) many of us would be most interested if you do ever decide to say a little more.

 

[Euro_d]

Well said Sir,
I read the posts you referenced and that is one of the reasons I started this one. I too spend a fortune of a system that simply did not work for me, I lost money.
Fine thats life but, as they say, once bitten... I will never return to an outfit that let me down.
So Trader333, it seems we have a group of open minded people here. At least give us some pointers.
Dave

 

[rgsharp]

Short of time this weekend so will return with more detail when I can. API is good but you do not need it.
I will run as full an explanation as I can and field questions. I have seen this in practice and worked it myself, needs liquidity so probably only work well with Betfair.
Richard.

 

[Trader333]

The advantage of using software that uses the Betfair API is that it can be programmed to optimise an arbitrage bet almost instantly and then place the bets simultaneously and (this is the important bit), optimise the amount per bet placed. Whilst this may well be possible without using the API it would always take much longer and you could always get caught with having placed one part of your arbitrage bet but not the other. This is of course unless Richard has some other way of doing it which I am unaware of ? That said arbitrage opportunities are not always present but you can use Betfair with traditional trading techniques (which again in my view), software is better placed to make the most of from an opportunity.


Paul

 

[Euro_d]

Update as promised on racingtowin:
Started 1 Feb on 30 day free trial, continued on paying basis (weekly) 1 March.
I started backing and laying 1 March but quickly decided to opt for back only using 3m method.
Betting bank started with £1250 now stands at £3740. I have not backed consistently as I was away for almost 10 days.
I am NOT plugging this outfit as I am very sceptical of tips services, more so than many but this one seems to be getting it right so far. Saturday and Sunday showed 6 successes from 11, I did not back as the weekend is for relaxing not working.

Regarding arbs, I have glanced at my old files and I remember why I gave it up:
The stakes required to give a reasonable return are very high. I also agree with Paul's comment that it is easy to miss the opportunities unless you are quick.
Some websites select the opportunities for you but it seems that the good ones have already gone when the site updates them. E.g. betbrain.com
Maybe the exchanges offer better returns. As of today theri best "surebet" is tennis and offers a return of 1.94%. Thats 20 quid on a grand!
Personally I am looking for a much better return.

 

[Euro_d]

An interesting site with lots of info on arbs together with a subscription service: oddsandbets.com

 

[rgsharp]

Paul & Dave both have a point when it comes to arbing, although I believe the two issues are related.Before the advent of API, BOTS, automated prog.s (call em what you will) you could easily trade horse arbs on Betfair at 10/15% profit; assuming back bet placed first. eg. back £100 at 5.0 lay £110 at 4.5, profit = £10/£15. The auto. progs are soaking up all the price gaps, resulting in lots of trades making a few pence, sometimes pounds, but with a licence fee liabilty of £100 - £150 per month, not very lucrative.

With regards the horses it needs more imagination, such as backing the Racing Post Pricewise horse while the price is guaranteed by a bookmaker and then laying back on Betfair. Better still lay the horse you think must likely to be increased in price in the same race as the Pricewise selection (Bookies balance the book) and then bet back. Some people follow one of the big tipsters(winnigline, fantastic forecasts, etc. purely to arb the selection, their influence being so large it invariably drags a price down by a few points, sometimes a lot.

Other sports are another issue. Arbs often exsists between conventional bets and spread bets on the same market. Especialy 3 outcome events such as boxing, football, baseball etc. Arbs often exsist between spread firms on markets and for fear of being accused of colluding they keep them open for a while (obviously thet know they are there). Trouble is they severly reduce the stake they will accept (say £50.00 a point when normaly they would have gone £500. a point, shame :-(

I used to work a sort of arb on horses before Betting Exchanges were invented. The lay part being achieved with a Spread Bet. There is still some good milage in this system if operated with care; more on that later. I also invented a numerical way of spread betting greyhounds which can also make good money; more on that another time. There is a nice way to make virtualy guaranteed money on Black Jack with little risk (100/200% returns are common). At the moment I am working on a Poker system. Perhaps by all sharing we can compare experiances and refine some strategies ?
Richard...

 

[Euro_d]

Super informative post Richard, thanks.
In between trading and other work yesterday I checked back on Betbrain and oddsandbets and there were some tennis matches that offered around 4% for a while but as you correctly point out they quickly evaporated.
One thing that seems to have been touted a while ago is that the prices tend to drift shorter during the day (gee gees) up to immediately before the off, especially on the favourites. Perhaps there is some mileage in backing early and laying at the last moment.
I'll have a dekko and post some initial evaluation.
I agree that although these boards are widely read I do not think the sport betting community are that active here so whatever we discuss is unlikely to affect the market. Certainly, the objective of these boards is to share and help each other make a crust, IMHO.

 

[Roberto]

Question about the 3M method

Dave, a question about the 3M method, if I may ...

You said (in the other thread, I think) that you had had 6 winners out of 11 races at the weekend, and I'm wondering how this can fit in sensibly with a policy of staking as much as 10% of your betting-fund on each race?

If the strike-rate is only something in the region of 50% (not that one can really gauge this from 11 samples, I appreciate!), isn't 10% far too high to be safe?

 

[Euro_d]

Roberto, you are absolutely correct, tisking 10% of the bank on any one race is absurd risk management.
The racingtowin website advises 10% if I understand correctly.
I apply 30% of the bank per day and then proportion that across the total number of races. In some races there may be more than one selection and therefore I proportion the stake according to the odds, a simple spreadsheet is available on their website, it is easy enough to construct though.
To illustrate using yesterday as an example, 7 races where recommendations were made:
Assume betting bank is £1000.
Total available to bet for the day = 300 (1000 x 30%)
Total available per race = 42 (300 / 7) In practice I would round this up to 50.
In a race where 1 horse is recommended the stake is logically 50. Where there are 2 or even 3 then the stake is proportioned according to the odds to give equal return if any of the 3 recommendations win. Clearly if non win the loss is 50.

Hope that helps. If you want the spreadsheet, email or IM.

 

[Euro_d]

Following a post (by rgsharp, I think it was you Richard?) I have been playing a little with the hourly FTSE on Betfair. It seems (and it is very early days yet) that it is relatively easy to watch the charts and construct arbitrage situations where whatever the outcome you will win. It is effectively a "2 horse race", will the FTSE finish above or below a certain pre defined value?

Betfair run this bet every hour and therefore at the beginning of the hour some very high odds are available, as the witching approaches the odds get tight as clearly major moves are less likely.
Be warned it is VERY fast and you need to refresh the Betfair prices manually almost continually.
It is good fun and I made gains yesterday all be it on very minor "test" stakes.

Has anyone else tried this?

 

[Roberto]

Thanks very much for your reply, Dave.

Roberto, you are absolutely correct, tisking 10% of the bank on any one race is absurd risk management. The racingtowin website advises 10% if I understand correctly.

It does indeed.

I apply 30% of the bank per day and then proportion that across the total number of races.

Yes, I see. Interesting suggestion. It does mean that on a day with a lot of bets (like yesterday, maybe?) you're staking a fraction per race of what you would then stake on a day with only one race for the system? Hmmm ... I'll have a think about this. I might just cut their 10% down to 4% or something, and work on that basis for the moment.

If you want the spreadsheet, email or IM.

Many thanks. I have everything here: I realised only after posting yesterday that I hadn't mentioned that I decided to buy the thing a couple of days ago, so I'm "with you all the way" (don't worry: you will shake me off before we get to Aintree).

I started off doing it "by the book" yesterday, from my bank of about £1400 (I decided I'd allocate £1500 to this but I took the purchase-price out of that as well!) and suddenly realised after the loss in the first race what inappropriate position-sizing it was! Still, we'll see ...

I have been playing a little with the hourly FTSE on Betfair ... ... ... Has anyone else tried this?

I've done the "daily" a few times, arbing between Betfair and BetOnMarkets, but it's not often that it works out well enough to be worth doing. It's a little bit fiddly that way. I think that when I last did it, "hourly" was not available - maybe a new thing? Will take a look.

 

[Euro_d]

You correct and that is a weakness in my staking method that I really need to think about, maybe. On stock/indices I use 3% (spread plus stop) risk on the open to calculate the price per point, I could contrive something along those lines. Anyway, as far as horses are concerned I am very risk averse.
You mention that you took out the purchase price, not quite following you there, I got a 30 day free trial and then pay just under £20 per week. We are talking about racing to win aren't we? Or are you a Brimadon client?

Regarding yesterday it was an unfortunate day, using my method I literally broke even.

Regarding arbs, you are right it is difficult to make any decent money and constructing the arb is far from easy. I am still playing with minimum stake to test.

BTW, how does one quote a message in the reply? My "options", "Quote message in reply" does not work.

Cheers
Dave

 

[Roberto]

You mention that you took out the purchase price, not quite following you there, I got a 30 day free trial and then pay just under £20 per week. We are talking about racing to win aren't we?

Yes ... I bought the book for £97 including a month's free trial, after which it's just under £20 per week as you say. (Maybe I didn't need to buy the book? Oh well ...). I am just doing 3M, not the other systems.

Anyway, I see we had a winner in the 2.00 today, with 2 more races still to go at the moment.

I'm (illogically, given our conversation) still staking 10% today, but might drop to 4% or 5% after today, I think.

I also broke even yesterday, give or take £1.

BTW, how does one quote a message in the reply?

Ah ... I think you are clicking on "post reply" towards the left of the screen, to reply? Try clicking on the button in the lower right-hand corner of a post, which just says "reply" and see if that works. Otherwise it might be something to do with "settings" in which case I'm out of my depth (as so often).

 

[Euro_d]

Yep the repy button works, cheers!

Yes ... I bought the book for £97 including a month's free trial, after which it's just under £20 per week as you say. (Maybe I didn't need to buy the book? Oh well ...). I am just doing 3M, not the other systems.
OK works the same, I subscribed for 30 days free and they give you the lay to win book after the first month paying, the 3M after the second! Works out the same. Anyway, I have paid for my subs out of hte wins.
As I write they have 2 races, 2 winners! Mmm, am I convinced? No, but less sceptical as the (winning) days go by!

 

[Roberto]

Mmm, am I convinced? No, but less sceptical as the (winning) days go by!

Likewise. Certainly can't complain about 3 winners out of 3 today. My £1400 has turned into about £1690 today. I'm obviously over-staking grossly and got lucky (the problem is I don't know _how_ grossly! If all the results claimed on their website are to be believed, I might actually be safe cutting down a little bit less than I was intending to ... what do you think?).

 

[Euro_d]

My quote doesn't work like yours, no matter I really have no interest in playing.

Yep, a 3 out of 3. My scepticism is diminishing, hurts to say so!
Good luck if you are playing tomorrow, I consider weekends as non working so I will probably not.
I am going to contact RTW and ask about their staking plan as I too am confused how to apply it.
Probably not important when we are in a winning run but vital when we hit the inevitable loosing streak.
Will post answer
Dave