I'm forever blowing bubbles..

SAINT

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$135 Oil? Hmm. The price of Oil is up a whopping 90% since Jan and for anyone who
followed Oil before it was such a headline grabber would realise this is pure bubble territory now.

Financial Times columnist John Authers pointed out that investment in indices based on commodity futures (all commodities, not just oil) has risen from $13bn five years ago to $260bn now. Pension funds, Hedge Funds and banks pitching to retail investors are all chasing the price up now and it has little to do with U.S. stockpiles, Chinese demand, nigerian unrest and Irans intentions.

Things such as Brazils recent huge Oil finds are ignored despite it being the first big return from deepwater exploration which has big implications for the near term.

Any change in sentiment now will see a huge rush to the exit in order to lock in profits and sell short and the fall may be quite brutal! (n)
 
It will be interesting esp as a lot of newbies have started taking interest...

"Darling, I think oil is going to be worth $200 by the end of the year... we should take our rainy day savings of £50k and put it to good use. It'll be worth about £380k* by Christmas..."
"Oh, I don't know. Are you sure, dear?"
"Look at the graph in today's Times..."
"It does look like it's going up."
"We can have a bonus winter holiday... I'll take you to New York for some Christmas shopping."
"Oh! Can we go to Macy's?"
"Yes, we can have £1000 spending money each."
"That sounds wonderful. Do it then!"

Two weeks later and their savings are worth £2000.


*-joy of leverage, naturally.
 
"Darling, I think oil is going to be worth $200 by the end of the year... we should take our rainy day savings of £50k and put it to good use. It'll be worth about £380k* by Christmas..."
"Oh, I don't know. Are you sure, dear?"
"Look at the graph in today's Times..."
"It does look like it's going up."
"We can have a bonus winter holiday... I'll take you to New York for some Christmas shopping."

I think Gordon might need a holiday sooner than that.

"Oh! Can we go to Macy's?"
"Yes, we can have £1000 spending money each."
"That sounds wonderful. Do it then!"

I was in Macy's in Chicago a couple of weeks ago. I came across a selection of clothes for Dogs (well, Paris Hilton type dogs, more rodents with perms):

me: "are these really clothes for dogs?"
assistant: "yes"
me: (upon finding the expensive stuff) "bloody hell! Some of these dogs are better dressed than I am!
assistant: "yes, I agree"
 
Saint,

$200 - $250 I reckon. And I'll advise Mr Gecko to put up some hard cash to prove my conviction.

Mr Gecko,

"Macy's [looking at] clothes for dogs". And I'm criticised because of my (academic) interest in M&S's ladies' lingerie.

Grant.
 
It will be interesting esp as a lot of newbies have started taking interest...

That's always the turning point when the retail joins the party. Banks/Spread Bettors are currently pitching it to investors and it's no coincidence that Nasdaq announced this week that trading volume was at its lowest since 2001!
 
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