IKOFX Daily Market Analysis

[team.ikofx]

GBPUSD Needs To Clear 100 MA For More Gains

The British pound is finally showing some signs of life against the US dollar. It looks like breaking an important resistance area and if it manages to settle above the 100 hour moving average, then the GBPUSD pair might surge higher in the short term. The 1.5560-80 area is a major resistance zone for the pair and if buyers clear it successfully, then it would be a bullish sign. There is no economic release lined up in the London today, which means most action might be dependent on how the US dollar trades during the coming sessions.

There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which looks like breached by the British pound buyers. However, the pair is currently struggling around an important resistance area, which is around the 100 hour moving average. The 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5564 high to 1.5484 low is also around the same MA. So, the 1.5575-80 area represents a major hurdle for buyers in the short term. If they manage to break it, then the pair might head towards the 200 hour moving average, which is sitting around the 76.4% fib retracement level. One bullish sign to note is the fact that the hourly RSI is now above the 50 level.

On the downside, if the pair moves lower from the current levels, then the broken trend line might act as a support for the pair.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is above the 1.5540-20 support area.

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[team.ikofx]

AUDUSD Testing A Critical Support Area

The Australian dollar managed to climb higher during the start of the week and then later failed to capitalize on the gains against the US dollar. The AUDUSD pair is testing an important support area as of writing, which might act as a catalyst for the pair in the near term. There was no release in the Asian session today, which kind of helped the US dollar to gain a few bids. It was seen surging higher against almost all major currencies. There are no major high risk events lined up during the London session. So, it would be interesting to see how the AUDUSD pair trades during the coming sessions as more downsides are likely moving ahead.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which is acting as a support for the pair as this analysis was written. The most important thing to note from the charts is that the pair is stuck between two key moving averages i.e. 100 and 200 hour MA’s. On the upside, the 200 hour MA is acting as a resistance for the pair and on the downside, 100 hour MA is acting as a support. However, there is a critical point to note, which is the fact that the highlighted trend line is also coinciding with the 100 hour MA. So, there is a monster support formed around the 0.8120 level.

So, if at all the Aussie dollar sellers manage to break the mentioned support area, then a sharp downside is likely moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling with a break below the highlighted trend line as long as the pair is below the 200 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro Likely To Struggle Against British Pound

The Euro was seen trading lower against the British pound, as the latter one was resilient against the US dollar but the first one was not. However, the recent economic releases in both the Euro zone and the UK were not on the positive side, but the bearish pressure was more on the Euro compared to the British pound. As a result, the EURGBP pair traded lower and broke an important support area to test the 0.7810-00 support area. It is likely that the pair might continue to struggle in the near term as the broken support area might well act as a resistance now.

There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was broken recently by the Euro sellers. The pair is currently trading around the 0.7800-10 support area. Let us see whether the pair can retest the broken support area or not in the near term. If it does, then the Euro sellers are likely to appear one more time to protect any major upside in the EURGBP pair. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7851 high to 0.7808 low is also around the broken trend line. So, there is a major hurdle for the Euro buyers around the 0.7820 level.

On the downside, it looks like a test of the 0.7800 support area is likely. If the Euro buyers fail to defend the same, then the pair might trade towards the 0.7760 swing support area moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in EURGBP as long as the pair is below the 0.7830 level.

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[team.ikofx]

Happy New Year Traders! Watching Market?

Happy New Year guys. We wish you a wonderful new year. Today is holiday and markets are closed. So, mostly there can be raging moves, but due to the low liquidity some spikes are possible.

Here are a few if someone is trading can keep an eye on!
EURUSD – 1.2080 is a major barrier for the Euro sellers. A break below the same might call for a test of the last swing low and probably the 1.2020-00 support area in the near term.
GBPUSD – British pound is trading in the positive territory and there are chances of more gains as long as the pair is above the 100 hour MA.
AUDUSD – Downside pressure is eased a bit, but buyers need a reason for it to take higher.

Overall, the US dollar might retrace a bit from the current levels, and that is the reason why we might witness swing moves.

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[team.ikofx]

EURUSD Crashing Down, More Losses Likely

The Euro fell sharply lower against the US dollar and traded below the 1.2100 support area. Recent economic events in the Euro zone have put a lot of pressure on the EURUSD pair. It is likely that the pair might test the 1.2020 support area moving ahead. There are a few economic releases lined up during the London session including the Euro area manufacturing PMI. Let us see whether it registers a contraction this time or manages to stay above the neutral 50 level. In short, the EURUSD pair remains under risk of more downsides as sellers are in control currently.

There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was breached recently by sellers. The pair traded below the 1.2100 support area. Now if the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it is likely to find resistance around the broken trend line. The stated trend line is also coinciding with the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.2186 high. So, any major retracement might find sellers on the way up. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which raises the case of a correction in the short term. So, let’s see how the pair trades in the coming sessions.

On the downside, the 1.2060 is the first support followed by the 1.2040 level. However, the most important one is around 1.2020-00 area where the Euro buyers might appear in the short term.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is below the 100 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

British Pound Under Severe Bearish Pressure

The British pound opened this week on a negative note against the US dollar and traded below the 1.5200 support area. There was a gap of more than 100 pips, as the US dollar surged higher against most major currencies, including the Euro and the Australian dollar. The main reason for spike in the US dollar is due to tensions in the Euro area, which increased the demand of the US dollar. The GBPUSD pair is currently trying to correct higher, which can be considered as a selling opportunity in the near term.

The GBPUSD hourly chart speaks a lot, as there was a bullish trend line formed which was breached by the US dollar buyers. The GBPUSD spiked lower and traded below the 1.5200 support area to set a new low of 1.5180. The pair is now trying to correct higher and making an attempt to fill the opening week gap. We need to see whether the British pound buyers manages to do that. However, if that happens, then the GBPUSD pair might find sellers around the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5619 high to 1.5180 low. Any further gains should be limited and might depend on how the US dollar trades in the coming days. The chances of more losses are more in the near term in GBPUSD.

If the GBPUSD pair moves lower again, then initial support is seen around the recent low of 1.5180. A break below the same might call for a test of the 1.5120 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is below the 1.5400 resistance area.

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[team.ikofx]

Aussie Dollar Recovery Might Fail Again

The Aussie dollar was seen correcting higher against the US dollar, but the AUDUSD pair might come under pressure one more time as there is a lot of resistance on the way up for the pair. The AUDUSD pair has struggled a lot recently and might continue to trade lower until buyers get a reason to take it higher in the short term. Earlier during the Asian session, the Australian trade balance data was released. The outcome was not encouraging enough to cause heavy gains in the Aussie dollar. However, the pair is currently trading with a positive tone, and we need to see how it can continue to do so.

There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which was breached by sellers recently. This particular break paved the way for more downside in AUDUSD towards the 0.8040 support area. The pair is currently correcting higher and testing the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.82144 high to 0.8034 low. Moreover, there are two important hurdles lining up just above the mentioned MA in the form of 100 and 200 hour moving averages. So, there is a lot of resistance around the 0.8130-40 area and buyers might find it difficult to break it and take the pair higher. One positive to note from the charts is the fact that the hourly RSI is above the 50 level.

If the AUDUSD pair fails to break the highlighted resistance area, then it might fall back towards the 0.8050 support area in the near term.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is below the 200 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Buy Dips In EURGBP

The Euro and the British pound struggled a lot during the recent times, as looking at the charts it looks like the latter one weakened more than the first one. The EURGBP pair traded a touch higher and it looks like it might head higher in the short term. There were several economic releases recently in the Euro area and the UK and there are more lined up moving ahead. So, it would mostly depend on the outcome and how both currencies trade in the coming sessions. There is a major support formed for EURGBP on the downside, which if continues to hold, then more upside is likely in the near term.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which acted as a support recently. The most important point is the fact that the same trend line is also coinciding with the 200 hour moving average. This was not all, as the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7744 low to 0.7873 high is also around the same area. So, there is a major support around the 0.7820 level. There is a chance that the EURGBP pair might retest the mentioned support area one more time and then trade higher. There is no denial that the 0.7820 represents a monster support, so let us see how the pair trades moving ahead.

On the upside, initial resistance is around the last high of 0.7875. A beak above the same might call for a test of the 0.7900 resistance area.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the EURGBP pair is trading above the 200 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

USDJPY Struggling Around A Key Area

The US dollar traded higher against the Japanese yen, but it looks like facing a monster resistance around the 119.60 level. There was nothing much from the fed interest rate decision, but it somehow managed to lift the USDJPY pair. However, the upside is facing a barrier, and the pair needs to clear it if it has to trade higher in the near term. On the downside too, there is a support around 119.202-10, which is a hurdle for sellers. The US initial jobless claims data will be released today, which might cause some action in the USDJPY pair. Let’s see whether it can break higher or not in the near term.

There is a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which might act as a support if the pair moves lower from the current levels. The pair is currently around the 100 hour moving average, which is likely acting as a major barrier for buyers. Moreover, the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 120.73 high to 118.07 low is also around the same area. So, the pair might struggle in the near term and move lower to test the highlighted trend line. The pair must hold the trend line if it has to continue trading higher. A break below the same might call for more losses moving ahead.

On the upside, a break above the 100 hour MA could set the pair for a test of the 200 hour MA which is the next selling area.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the USDJPY pair is trading above the trend line support area.

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[team.ikofx]

Is This Is A Short-term Break In EURUSD

The Euro collapsed against the US dollar and it continued to trade lower this week. The Euro sellers were in control and any major rallies were sold. The EURUSD pair even broke the 1.1800 support area to trade lower in the near term. The pair might correct higher from the current levels, as there is a bullish break noted on the charts. However, the Euro buyers must not get too excited as there are several resistances on the way up for the pair, which might again ignite a downside reaction in the short term. We need to see how the economic releases in the Euro area shapes in the coming session.

There was a crucial bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was breached by the Euro buyers recently. This can be considered as a short-term break which might take the pair a bit higher from the current levels. However, as mentioned there are several hurdles for the pair on the upside. The most important one is around the 100 hour moving average, which is also coinciding with the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1957 high to 1.1754 low. So, the Euro buyers might struggle around the 1.1880 level if the pair moves higher from the current levels.

On the downside, initial support is around the broken trend line. Any further losses might take the pair towards the last low of 1.1754.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the EURUSD pair is trading above the last low.

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[team.ikofx]

British Pound Showing Signs Of Recovery

The British pound managed to gain buyers against the US dollar before closing the week. The GBPUSD pair closed back above the 1.5100 resistance area and as of writing heading towards the 1.5200 area. This is a positive sign, but we need to see how the pair trades in the coming sessions. There is a lot of bearish pressure on the pair and if sellers appear again, then the pair might head lower one more time. There is no release lined up today in the UK, which could move the British pound. So, there might be ranging move in GBPUSD before some action in the NY session.

There was a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was broken recently. This particular break gave hope to the British pound buyers so that they can lift the GBPUSD pair a bit higher. One more bullish sign to note from the charts is that the pair settling above the 100 hour moving average. However, it looks like the pair is struggling around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5318 high to 1.5034 low. So, there is a chance of a small move lower back towards the 100 hour MA where buyers might appear again. Overall, a move above the 1.5200 resistance area is possible moving ahead.

On the downside, initial support is around the 100 MA. A break below the same might invalidate the bullish view and could take the pair back towards the 1.5050 support area.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the 100 MA.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

AUDUSD Might Climb Higher Moving Ahead

The Aussie dollar was seen trading lower against the US dollar, but it found support around an important area, which means there is a chance of a move higher in the near term. The recent economic releases in the Australia were not on the positive side which jolted the AUDUSD pair. We need to see how the pair trades in the coming session, as any positive signal might encourage the Aussie dollar buyers. There is also an important release in the US lined up today, as the business optimism index will be released. Let’s see how the outcome shapes and affects the AUDUSD pair in the near term.

There is an important bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which recently helped the pair to hold the downside. The most critical point was the fact that the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages are also sitting around the mentioned area. So, overall there is a monster support around the 0.8120 area. As long as the pair is holding the mentioned area, it might trade higher. The pair even cracked the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8031 low to 0.8252 high, but currently trading back above the same. A break above the 0.8170 might help the AUDUSD pair in the near term.

If the AUDUSD pair fails to moves higher and trades lower, then the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages cold be tested again.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the AUDUSD pair as long as the pair is trading above the 200 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro At Risk Of More Downsides Against Pound

The Euro traded sharply lower against the British pound and it is possible that it might continue trading lower in the near term. The EURGBP pair recently broke an important support area which has cleared the way for more losses in the pair moving ahead. We need to see how the pair reacts if it retraces from the current levels. There are a couple of important releases lined up in the Euro area today including the consumer price index for France, which might cause some action in the near term.

There was a critical support trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was recently breached by the Euro sellers. The pair traded close to the 0.7755 level, which is a major barrier for sellers. There is a chance of a retracement in the short term back towards the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7828 high to 0.7755 low. In that situation, the pair might find sellers around the mentioned fib level or close to the broken trend line. The hourly RSI is around the oversold readings, which might cause a minor pullback in the pair. However, the upside might be contained considering the bearish pressure on the pair. The pair is well below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, which is a strong negative sign in the near term.

On the downside, initial support is around the last low of 0.7755. A beak below the same might take the pair towards the 0.7710 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURGBP pair as long as the pair is trading below the broken trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Watch For 117.90 In $USDJPY

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen recently, but found support around the 166.10-20 area where buyers managed to protect the downside in the near term. There is a monster resistance forming around the 117.90-188.00 area where the US dollar sellers might appear one more time. We need to see how the pair reacts if it reaches there moving ahead. Today, during the NY session, there are a couple of releases lined up in the US including the jobless claims and the producer price index. The US dollar might move down one more time if the data misses the forecast.

There is an important bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which is likely to act as a catalyst in the short term. The most important point is that the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 119.76 high to 116.07 low is also sitting around the same area. Moreover, the 100 hour moving average is also sitting above the trend line. So, there is a major resistance forming around the 117.90-188.00 area. If the pair manages to climb higher, then it is likely to find resistance around the mentioned area. There is one positive sign on the charts, as the hourly RSI silently moved above the 50 level.

On the downside, initial support is around the 117.00 level. Any further losses might take the pair towards the last swing low of 116.07 in the near term.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDJPY pair as long as it is trading below the trend line and 100 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Selling To Remain Profitable In EURUSD

The Euro was seen trading lower against the US dollar recently. The SNB removing the floor in the EURCHF pair did not go down well with the Euro buyers. It collapsed not only against the Swiss franc, but some other pairs were affected too. We need to see how the pair trades in the coming sessions as the Euro is under severe bearish pressure which might take it lower from the current levels. There is an important risk event lined up in the Euro area today, as the consumer price index data will be released. If the outcome missed the forecast one more time, then the EURUSD might head towards the 1.1550 level.

There was a crucial support trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was breached recently as the pair came under selling pressure. The pair traded as low as 1.1562 level where it just managed to gain buyers. However, it failed to gain traction as there are a lot of hurdles on the way up for the pair. The most important one is around the broken trend line which might act as a resistance and also coinciding with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.1845 high to 1.1565 low. Let’s see how the pair reacts if it bounces from here.

On the downside, initial support is around the recent low of 1.1560. A break below the same might call for a move towards the 1.1500 support area moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURUSD pair as long as it is trading below the broken trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

GBPUSD Might Continue To Struggle

The British pound traded towards the 1.5200 resistance area on more than two occasions against the US dollar, but it struggled to break the mentioned area. It looks like the 1.5200 area is a major barrier for the pair. The pair recently cleared an important support area in the short term, which opened the doors for more losses. We need to see how the pair trades in the coming sessions and whether it moves lower from the current levels or not. It might also depend on the economic releases lined up during the London session.

There was a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was breached recently by the British pound sellers. The most important point is that the pair has settled below the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages, which is a strong bearish sign in the short term. The GBPUSD pair fell as low as 1.5074 where buyers managed to hold the downside. The pair traded back towards the broken trend line and it looks like it is struggling to clear the broken trend line. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5265 high to 1.5074 low also acted as a resistance for the pair in the near term.

There is a chance of one more test of the 50% fib retracement level and if buyers fail again, then a move lower is possible towards the 1.5060 level in the near term.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPUSD pair as long as it is trading below the 50% fib level.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

Downside Thrust Underway In AUDUSD

The Aussie dollar range traded against the US dollar for some time before sellers got the control and took the AUDUSD pair lower. The pair recently broke the 0.8180 support area and it looks like set for more losses in the near term. There is a lot of bearish pressure emerging for the AUDUSD pair, which is calling for more downsides moving ahead. There was no major release in the US recently, but then too the pair failed to gain momentum and stayed below the key 0.8240 resistance area. Let us see how it trades in the coming sessions.

There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which acted as a barrier for the pair on a number of occasions. The most important bearish sign to note from the charts is the fact that the pair is now trading below the 100 hour moving average and testing the 200 hour MA. If sellers gain control and manage to take the pair below the 200 MA, then it is likely to accelerate lower in the short term. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8067 low to 0.8294 high is broken, which might encourage the sellers as we move ahead. The next level of interest on the downside is around the 61.8% fib level.

If the Aussie dollar manages to take the currency higher, then the highlighted bearish trend line might act as a resistance.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the AUDUSD pair as long as it is trading below the stated trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

Sell Rallies In EURGBP

The Euro continued to decline against the US dollar and the British pound. There were some positive releases in the Euro area, but that failed to move the Euro higher. This means that the Euro sellers are here to stay and more downsides are likely. Today, there is hardly any release in the Euro area, but there are a couple of releases in the UK including the employment and BOE minutes. Let us see how the outcome affects the EURGBP pair. There is no doubt that the pair is under bearish pressure and it might continue to trade lower is buyers fail to defend losses.

There was a crucial bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was broken recently by the Euro sellers. The pair traded as low as 0.7612 and currently trying to correct higher. However, there are several resistances on the way up for the pair including the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7691 high to 0.7612 low. Moreover, the broken trend line might also act as a hurdle as it is sitting just below the 100 hour moving average. The most important bearish sign is the fact that the hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, which might encourage the Euro sellers in the near term.

On the downside, initial support is around the 0.7612 low. A break below the same might expose a test of the 0.7600 handle.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURGBP pair as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

USDJPY Likely To Trade Higher Moving Ahead

The US dollar traded a bit lower against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting in which the central bank stated that Japan is moving towards recovery. However, the downside was limited in the USDJPY pair as it found support around the 117.20 level. Recent economic releases in the US were also on the positive side, which helped the pair to bounce back. It even traded above important resistance area. Moreover, there are several support areas formed on the way down, which are likely to act as a barrier for the pair in the near term. The US initial jobless claims will be published today, which might cause some moves in the US dollar.

There is an important bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which might act as a support if the pair moves lower from the current levels. The most critical and bullish sign to note from the charts is that the pair is now trading above the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages, which are likely to act as a barrier for the US dollar sellers. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 115.84 low to 118.87 high is also sitting around the same area. So, there are a lot of reasons for sellers to worry as the US dollar buyers might take control in the short term.

On the upside, a move towards the 118.20 level is possible. A break above the same might take the pair towards the 118.50 level in the near term.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDJPY pair as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

Downside To Accelerate In EURUSD

The Euro blasted lower as many traders expected after the ECB interest rate decision and press conference. The central bank finally announced easing measures which will start from March. This came as a worrying sign for the Euro traders, as the EURUSD pair was seen trading lower. The pair even broke the 1.1400 support area to trade towards the 1.1300 level. The pair traded as low as 1.1314 Intraday and looks set for more losses in the near term, as it has cleared most important support levels. There are several releases lined up in the Euro area today, including the manufacturing PMI’s, which might cause more moves in the EURUSD pair.

There was a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was breached around the time of release. This particular break ignited sharp downside in the pair as can be seen in the chart below. The pair blasted below the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages paving way for more downsides in the near term. If the pair corrects a bit higher from the current levels, then it is likely to find resistance around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1649 high to 1.1314 low. So, there is a lot of bearish pressure on the Euro and more losses might be on the cards moving ahead.

On the downside, the recent low of 1.1314 might act as a support. A break below the mentioned level could even take the pair below 1.1280.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies close to the 38.2% fib level as long as it is trading below the 50% fib level.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker