IKOFX Daily Market Analysis

[team.ikofx]

British Pound Remains In A Downtrend

The British pound suffered heavy losses against the US dollar recently and headed towards the 1.5580 support area. The fundamentals in the UK also weakened a bit and supported the bearish view in the GBPUSD pair. The pair broke an important support area and traded lower. Until the pair is trading below the 1.5700 swing support area more downside is likely in the near term. There is a critical release lined up during the London session today. The UK manufacturing PMI data will be published, which is expected to decline from 53.2 to 53.0. Let us see how the outcome shapes and affects the British pound.

There was a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was breached by sellers and paved way for more downside below the 1.5600 area. The pair is attempting a recovery, which can be considered as a selling opportunity in the near term. There is also a bearish trend line forming on the hourly chart, which might act as a resistance for the pair in the near term. As long as the pair is trading below the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5824 high to 1.5584 low it would remain under bearish pressure. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which might cause a small correction in the pair.

On the downside, initial support is around the last low of 1.5584. If the mentioned level is breached, then a test of the 1.5520 support area is possible moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies around the highlighted bearish trend line as long as the pair is trading below the 1.5670 level.

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[team.ikofx]

Aussie Dollar Might Continue Its Downtrend

The Aussie dollar opened this week with a substantial gap lower against the US dollar, as GOLD referendum failed. However, later during the NY session, the US dollar weakened a lot and lost the ground against the Aussie dollar. The AUDUSD pair managed to close the opening week gap and tested an important resistance area where it failed to gain momentum. There is an important risk event lined up later during the Asian session, as the RBA is scheduled to announce the key interest rate. This particular event might cause a lot of action in the Aussie dollar.

There is an important bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which acted as a resistance many times. The recent run towards the upside failed around the 100 moving average, which is sitting just below the mentioned bearish trend line. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.86144 high to 0.8415 low was also around the same area. So, there were a lot of reasons for the Aussie dollar sellers to protect the upside in the pair. The AUDUSD pair might continue to head lower, as there is a possibility that the pair might have completed a correction recently.

On the upside, initial resistance is around the 100 moving average. A break above the same might take the pair towards the highlighted trend line where the Aussie dollar buyers might struggle one more time.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies around the bearish trend line as long as the pair is trading below the same.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro Likely Heading Lower Against British Pound

The Euro was seen struggling recently against the US dollar and the British pound. It traded lower against the latter one, but the downside was limited as the British pound also fell recently. However, the EURGBP pair broke an important support area, which might call for more losses in the pair in the near term. The economic releases in the Euro zone were also on the disappointing side. Today, the UK services PMI will be released in the UK, which might cause an impact on the EURGBP pair moving ahead. If the outcome matches the forecast or exceeds the same, then the EURGBP pair might head lower.

There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was broken earlier during this week. The pair later bounced to retest the broken trend line, but failed to gain momentum above the same as the 100 and 200 simple moving averages were also sitting around the same area. The Euro buyers struggled a lot and as a result the EURGBP pair moved lower again. The pair is currently trading above the last swing low and there is a chance of more spike higher towards the 100 MA. In that situation, the Euro buyers might fail one more time and the EURGBP pair could move lower.

On the downside, the immediate support is around the last low of 0.7909. A break below the same might take the pair towards the 0.7880 level.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies around the 100 MA as long as the pair is trading below the same.

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[team.ikofx]

Buy Dips In USDJPY

The US dollar continued to outperform every other major currency, including the Japanese yen. The USDJPY pair blasted higher recently and traded above the 119.80 level and almost tested the 120.00 area. The economic releases in the US continue to impress which is helping the greenback to head higher. There is a chance that the USDJPY pair might break the 120.00 level and test the 120.20 level in the short term. There are a lot of economic releases lined up today, which might impact the US dollar to a greater extent. We need to see how the pair behaves in the coming sessions.

There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY, which was broken recently and paved way for more upside. There is a possibility that the pair might correct a bit lower from the current levels and head towards the broken trend line. The broken trend line is now coinciding with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 119.16 low to 119.89 high. So, the US dollar might fight around the 119.60-50 support area and protect the downside. If they succeed in doing so, then there is a chance of a bounce and break of the 120.00 level in that situation.

On the upside, initial resistance is around the recent high of 119.89. A break above the same might take the pair towards the 120.00 where the US dollar sellers might appear since it represents a major psychological level.

Overall, one might consider buying dips around the broken trend line as long as the pair is above the 119.50 level.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro Failed To Capitalize On Rally

The Euro somehow managed to spike higher against the US dollar yesterday, as there was no major change in the stance of the ECB. The market was expecting some hint or guidance regarding additional measures. The Euro sellers were disappointed, and as a result the EURUSD pair surged higher to break the 1.2340 resistance and trade towards the 1.2400 area. The pair failed to break the second resistance and is currently trading lower. The US NFP data will be published today, which might again cause swing moves in the EURUSD pair.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which acted as a resistance on many time and recent spike also halted just below the mentioned trend line. The pair closed above the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages for a short period of time and later settled back below the same. The pair also stalled around the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2505 high to 1.277 low. There is a chance that we have seen a short-term top in the EURUSD pair and it might continue heading lower moving ahead. We need to see how the price action shapes up in the coming sessions and whether it can break the mentioned trend line or not.

On the downside, initial support is seen around the 1.2360-50 area where the Euro buyers might fight to protect the downside in the pair. A break below might take it towards the 1.2320 level.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the highlighted bearish trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

British Pound Looks Poised For More Downside

The British pound traded below the 1.5600 support area against the US dollar during this past week as the latter one continued to surge higher in the near term. The economic releases in the US were also on the positive side, which lifted the FX market sentiment in favour of the US dollar buyers. The GBPUSD pair traded towards the 1.5550 area and it looks like that the pair might continue trading lower in the near term, as it has breached an important support area which might give one more reason to sellers to take it lower.

There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was broken recently. This particular break was critical, as the pair broke a crucial support area around the 1.5600 area. The GBPUSD pair might now head towards the 1.5500 level if sellers remain in control for a long time. If the pair managed to correct higher from the current levels, then it might struggle around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5692 high to 1.5560 low. Any further gains could take the pair towards the broken trend line where the 100 hourly moving average is waiting to act as a hurdle for the GBPUSD pair. The hourly RSI is around the oversold readings pointing that a short term correction is possible moving ahead.

On the downside, initial support is seen around the recent low of 1.5560. A break and close below the mentioned level might ignite a move towards the 1.5520-00 area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the 100 hourly MA.

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[team.ikofx]

0.8320 Is Next Level Of Selling Interest In AUDUSD

There was one currency which literally fell sharply during the last couple of weeks i.e. the Australian dollar. The AUDUSD pair even tested the 0.8250-60 support area recently which represents a major hurdle for the Aussie dollar sellers. The AUDUSD pair is currently correcting higher, but the downside pressure is still intact on the pair, which could take it lower towards the 0.8200 area. There are a lot of hurdles for the pair on the way up which might cause more sellers to step in and take the pair lower again in the short term.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which might be considered as a selling zone in the near term. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it might struggle around the mentioned bearish trend line. More importantly, the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8381 high to 0.8253 low is also sitting around the highlighted trend line. The sloping 100 hourly moving average is aligning just above the same, which is one more bearish sign. So, there is a chance that the Aussie sellers might step in again if the pair jumps towards the 0.8300-20 resistance area. The hourly RSI is also below the 50 mark, which could add to the bearish pressure on the pair.

On the downside, initial support is around the last low of 0.8253. A break below the same might call for a move towards the 0.8200-10 area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the 100 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro Surges Past 0.7900 Against British Pound

The Euro gained a lot of bullish momentum recently as it was seen trading higher not only against the US dollar but also against the British pound. The EURGBP pair even traded above the 0.7900 resistance area and settled above an important resistance area. The economic releases in the Euro zone were on the positive side whereas on the other hand, in the UK industrial production data missed the expectation. This was one of the reasons for upside reaction in the EURGBP pair in the near term.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which acted as a resistance recently and halted the upside in the pair. There is one worrying sign for the Euro bulls as the pair is now trading below the 200 hourly moving average which might encourage sellers in the short term. Currently, the pair is trading around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last move from the 0.7843 low to 0.7929 high. There is a chance of a spike lower from the current levels towards the 100 hourly moving average which is also sitting around the 61.8% fib retracement level. In that situation, there is a possibility of buyers appearing moving ahead.

If the EURGBP pair climbs higher, then initial resistance is around the last high or around the bearish trend line. A break above the same might call for more gains in the near term.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the 100 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Buy Dips In USDJPY

The US dollar was seen struggling a lot during the last couple of sessions, especially against the Japanese yen. The USDJPY pair collapsed and traded towards the 117.50 support area. It is now trading more than 300 pips lower from the recent high, which can be considered as a strong bearish sign. However, we need to see more signs of weakness in the USDJPY pair before considering as a short term top. There is an important release lined up during the coming NY session i.e. the US retails sales report will be published. If the outcome stays in the negative zone, then there is a chance that the US dollar might continue trading lower.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which might act as a strong selling zone in the near term. It looks like the pair is finding buyers around the 117.50 support area and a short-term bounce is possible. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it is could struggle around the mentioned bearish trend line. The most important thing is that the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 119.900 high to 117.42 low is also sitting around the same area. So, a lot of selling interest might be seen around the 118.60-80 area moving ahead.

On the downside, initial support is around the recent low of 117.42. A break below the same might take the pair towards the 117.00 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro Again Heading Lower?

The Euro was seen trading higher against the US dollar recently, but it again came under pressure to some extent during the last couple of sessions. It broke an important support area, which might encourage the Euro sellers to take it lower from the current levels. We need to see how the economic releases shape up, as yesterday’s releases were on the negative side and weighed a lot on the Euro. There is a chance that the EURUSD pair might head back towards the 1.2320-00 support area before it continues trading higher again. It all depends on the price action and how the Euro buyers defend important support levels.

There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was breached by the Euro sellers recently. It has opened the doors for more downside in the near term. However, there is an important point to note that the pair found support around the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages, which acted as a barrier for the pair. It is now correcting back higher, but the broken trend line is acting as a resistance. If the pair fails to clear the mentioned trend line, then it might head lower back towards the 200 hourly moving average. It would be interesting to see how the pair trades in that situation.

A break below the 200 hourly moving average might push the pair towards the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.2246 low.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the 200 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Is This Right Time To Buy GBPUSD?

The British pound finally showed some signs of life as it was seen trading higher against the US dollar during this past week. The GBPUSD pair traded higher and climbed towards the 1.5740 area where it found sellers. It is currently seen consolidating in a range and more likely setting up for more gains in the near term. As long as the pair stays above the 1.5680 support area, it might continue to trade higher. One might consider keeping an eye on the mentioned level if trading the GBPUSD pair in the near term.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which might act as a strong support on the downside. The most important point is that the mentioned trend line is now coinciding with the 200 hourly moving average. Moreover, the 100 hourly moving average is also sitting around the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5651 low to 1.5745 high. So, there is a chance that the British pound buyers might fight around the 1.5685-90 area and protect more downside in the near term. There is a bearish sign developing as well on the hourly chart, as the RSI has moved below the 50 mark. So, there is a possibility of a test of the 200 MA.

On the upside, the recent high of 1.5740-45 might continue to act as a strong resistance for the GBPUSD pair. A break above the same could take the pair towards the 1.5800 area.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the 200 MA.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

Aussie Continues To Fall Post RBA

The Aussie dollar recently suffered heavy losses especially against the US dollar and the Euro. The AUDUSD pair tested the 0.8200 swing support area and failed to recover. Recent price action in the AUDUSD pair suggests that more downside is possible which can take the pair below the mentioned level. There was a major risk event lined up during the Asian session, as the RBA meeting minutes were released. There was no relief for the Aussie dollar buyers, as the RBA continued to stay with their dovish stance.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which protected the upside in the pair on many occasions. The pair is currently testing the last swing low around the 0.8200 level. We need to see whether the pair can break the mentioned level or not. If it manages to settle around the stated level, then it would raise the case for a double bottom pattern formation. However, we need to more confirmation before we can call for a short-term correction in the pair. If it climbs higher, then the highlighted bearish trend line might act as a hurdle for the Aussie dollar buyers. Any further strength might take the AUDUSD pair towards the 100 hour moving average, which is currently around the 0.8270 level.

On the downside, the recent low around the 0.8200 area could provide support to the pair. A break below the same might call for more losses in the pair moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the highlighted trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

More Upside Likely In British Pound

The British pound somehow managed to gain traction against the US dollar and the Euro recently and traded higher. The EURGBP pair broke an important short-term support area, which has cleared the way for more downside in the near term. We need to see how the pair trades in the upcoming sessions, as there is a chance that the EURGBP pair might trade towards the 0.7900-20 support area. There are several important releases lined up in both the Euro zone and the UK, which are likely to act as a market mover for the EURGBP pair.

There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was breached by sellers recently. The EURGBP failed to trade above the 0.80 resistance area and as a result it moved lower. Currently, the pair is trading around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7872 low to 0.8005 high. So, there is a possibility that the pair might spike higher from the current levels to retest the broken trend line where it could find sellers one more time. Any further gains are unlikely and highly depend on the incoming economic data in the Euro zone and the UK.

On the downside, the most important support is seen around the 100 hour moving average, which is sitting around the 61.8% fib retracement level. A break below the same might take the pair towards the 200 hour moving average, which coincides with the 76.4% fib level.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the broken trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

US Dollar Surges Higher Post Fed Rate Decision

The US dollar again blasted higher against most major currencies Intraday as the fed interest rate decision helped the US dollar to regain bids. The USDJPY pair also climbed higher and cleared a critical resistance area to open the way for more upside in the near term. However, the pair as of writing is struggling to break the 200 hour moving average, which might call for a short-term correction. We need to see how the US dollar trades during the coming sessions and whether it can continue to trade higher or corrects lower. There is a risk event lined up today as the US initial jobless claims and services PMI will be published.

There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY, which was breached after the fed interest rate decision. As mentioned, the pair is currently struggling to settle above the 200 hour moving average. So, there is a chance that the pair might correct lower and retest the broken trend line. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 115.51 low to 119.0 high is also around the same trend line. So, there is a possibility of buyers appearing around the 118.10-00 support area. Any further losses might take the pair towards the next important support which is just below the trend line in the form of the 100 hour moving average.

On the upside, initial resistance is around the 200 hour MA. A break above the same might call for a move toward the 119.50 level.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is trading above the 100 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro Remains Poised For Continuous Weakness

The Euro was seen trading lower against the US dollar, as the strength in the latter one escalated recently. The EURUSD pair has settled below the 1.2300 support area, exposing a test of the 1.22 support area. We need to see how the pair trades in the coming sessions. There is an important release lined up in the Euro zone as the German GFK consumer confidence survey report will be published. The market is expecting a minor rise of 0.1 points from 8.7 to 8.8. If the outcome misses the mark, then the Euro might come under pressure in the near term. On the other hand, a better than expected reading might help the Euro.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which might act as a catalyst for the pair. The mentioned trend line acted as a barrier on many occasions and it might continue to act as a hurdle for the Euro buyers. The pair is currently consolidating in a range around the recent low. So, there is a chance of a spike towards the highlighted trend line trend where sellers are likely to take a stand. Any further gains should be limited around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.2566 high to 1.2264 low. We need to see how the pair reacts if it corrects higher from the current levels.

On the downside, the recent low of 1.2264 is a short-term support level. A break below the same might call for a move towards the 1.2220 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the highlighted trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

GBPUSD To Remain Under Pressure

The British pound showed a lot of resiliency recently comparatively against the US dollar, but there is no doubt that the GBPUSD pair remains under pressure in the short term. The recent economic releases in the UK was mixed as the CPI misses missed the mark with a decline, and on the other hand, the UK retail sales data came better than expected with a solid increase. So, in short, the GBPUSD pair managed to hold the 1.5600.5550 support area. However, there is a monster resistance around the 1.5650 level, which is protecting upside in the pair. We need to see which way the pair goes in the coming sessions.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which protected the upside on a number of occasions. The most important and bearish signal to note is the fact that the pair is trading below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. So, there is a lot of resistance on the way up for the GBPUSD pair. The pair recently failed to clear the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5784 high to 1.5538 low. So, the recent failure has put a lot of pressure on the British pound bulls, which might cause a heavy downside moving ahead. Any rallies closer to the mentioned trend line might find sellers in the near term.

On the downside, the 1.5550 level is an important support which might continue to act as a barrier for sellers.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the 200 hour MA.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

AUDUSD Likely To Continue Trading Lower

The Aussie dollar came under a lot of bearish pressure recently not only against the US dollar, but also against other major currencies. The AUDUSD pair recently tested the 0.8110-00 support area and currently correcting higher. However, the stated correction is a mild one, as the pair remains under selling pressure and might continue trading lower in the near term. There was no release lined up in Australia during the past couple of sessions. However, there are a few releases in the NY session today in the US. Let us see how the pair trades in the upcoming session and whether it creates a new low below 0.8110 or not.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which managed to stall the pair on many times. The pair recently tested the highlighted trend line and failed to break it. It is currently heading back towards the last swing low which is a bearish sign and presents a risk of a break lower. The most important point here is the fact that the 100 hour MA is sitting around the highlighted trend line. So, the 0.8150-60 level might act as a monster hurdle for the pair. Any spike higher from the current levels might find sellers as the pair is trading below key resistance area.

On the downside, initial support is around the recent low of 0.8105. A break below the same is likely to open the doors for a move towards the 0.8080-60 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the pair is trading below the 100 hour MA.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

Chance Of Recovery Fades In EURGBP

There was a lot of selling pressure noted on the British pound recently, but the Euro was not far from it. That’s why the EURGBP pair mostly traded in a range. Yesterday, there were a couple of important releases in the UK, which came below the expectation and caused downside in the British pound. However, the Euro even performed worse and traded below a key support level. In short, the EURGBP pair moved lower and recently closed below the 100 hour moving average, which is an important bearish sign in the short term. Let us see how the pair trades in the coming sessions and in low liquidity due to the holidays.

There is an ascending channel formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which might act as a catalyst for the Euro in the short term. Currently, the EURGBP pair is trading around the channel support area and struggling to hold the same. The most important bearish signal as noted is the fact that the pair has closed below the 100 hour MA. So, it escalates the chance of a break below the channel support area in the near term. Recently, the pair failed around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7952 high to 0.7812 low, which is one more reason for more losses moving ahead.

On the downside, a beak below the channel support area might take the pair towards the last swing low of 0.7812. On the upside, a break above 100 hour MA might encourage the Euro bulls.

Overall, one might consider selling with a break below the channel support as the pair is trading below the 100 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

Merry Christmas! Pairs To Keep An Eye In Low Liquidity

Merry Christmas guys. We wish you a wonderful new year. Today is holiday and markets are closed. Not much of action is anticipated and most traders will remain inactive during holidays.

However, there are still a few things if someone is trading can keep an eye on!

EURUSD – 1.2220 is an important resistance and a break above might take it 20-30 pips higher in the near term. On the downside, the 1.2160 support area is likely to hold during this week.

GBPUSD – 1.5550-60 is pivot zone, as if the pair managed to settle above the same, then more gains are possible.

AUDUSD – Downside pressure remains and more losses cannot be denied moving ahead.

Overall, there is a chance of the US dollar correcting lower, but it might be well supported on the dips in the near term.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

EURUSD trying To Break Key Level In Holidays

The Euro struggled during this week and fell lower below the 1.2200 support area against the US dollar. However, it looks like the market is taking advantage of low liquidity due to holidays and trying to take the EURUSD pair higher. This is very tough considering the recent FX market sentiment. We need to see how the pair trades during the coming week. There is no economic release today due to the Boxing Day holiday. Let’s see whether the pair can continue trading higher in the near term or not.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was just breached earlier but failed to successfully close above the same. We need to keep an eye on the mentioned trend line as the pair is making an attempt to clear it one more time. The pair also failed around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2352 high to 1.2165 low. There is one important bullish sign developing on the hourly chart as the RSI is trying to close above the 50 level. If it happens then the EURUSD pair might head towards the 100 hour moving average.

If the Euro buyers fail to take the pair higher in the near term, and EURUSD moves lower, then it might head back towards the last low. The 1.2160-50 must hold for today and can be tested on the coming Monday.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the price is below the 100 hour MA.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker