Hands up those that think IG manipultes the market in the last minute of a binary when its not possible to trade.
I have seen so many times when the market has sat for 19 mins making steady moves only to see some wild moves in the last minute. Too many times for it to be coincidence.
It seems to be more pronounced on the hourly boundary when theres probably more at stake and almost always true at Midday when lots of other bets are expiring.
Also see wild moves in the underlying 2-3 mins before the close. This has the result in stopping people out of their positions and lots of turnover for IG. turnover == profit.
I asked the question to the binaries chief who said that they don,t but qualified that by saying he wouldn,t admit it if they did. but did say that the result of a binary could make a huge difference as to whether IG made a profit on a market.
I figure it as this. I estimate 200K bet at least per 20 min binary. If the up-down ratio of bets is skewed to say 80/20 it would be in IGs interest to make sure it finished down. How much would it cost to do it ? I reckon you could move the market a couple of points or more by selling 100-200 futures contracts. They could even make a profit on those contracts as well if the buy them back carefully.
If I,m right then a strategy would be to buy below 20 (sell above 80) 2 mins before expiry. BUT my backtesting shows this to be unprofitable - a paradox. Mabe I should ask that piper bloke he has all the answers.
I have seen so many times when the market has sat for 19 mins making steady moves only to see some wild moves in the last minute. Too many times for it to be coincidence.
It seems to be more pronounced on the hourly boundary when theres probably more at stake and almost always true at Midday when lots of other bets are expiring.
Also see wild moves in the underlying 2-3 mins before the close. This has the result in stopping people out of their positions and lots of turnover for IG. turnover == profit.
I asked the question to the binaries chief who said that they don,t but qualified that by saying he wouldn,t admit it if they did. but did say that the result of a binary could make a huge difference as to whether IG made a profit on a market.
I figure it as this. I estimate 200K bet at least per 20 min binary. If the up-down ratio of bets is skewed to say 80/20 it would be in IGs interest to make sure it finished down. How much would it cost to do it ? I reckon you could move the market a couple of points or more by selling 100-200 futures contracts. They could even make a profit on those contracts as well if the buy them back carefully.
If I,m right then a strategy would be to buy below 20 (sell above 80) 2 mins before expiry. BUT my backtesting shows this to be unprofitable - a paradox. Mabe I should ask that piper bloke he has all the answers.
